Advanced Strategic Planning 2 Ed Morrison Economic Development Institute December, 2007
Advanced Strategic Planning 2
Ed MorrisonEconomic Development Institute
December, 2007
Outline of the Course
• Overview
• Defining a Region
• Telling a Story
• Understanding Your Toolbox
• Finding Data
• Drawing Charts
• Developing a Basic Story Line
Forget Vision, Find Coherence
Economic development in a nutshell
4
Overview
Why telling stories makes a difference
5
Overview
Prosperous stories create a “buzz”
6
Overview
Negative stories become self-fulfilling
7
Overview
• Purpose: Why? What’s the purpose?
• Media markets
• Commuting Patterns
• Cluster Anchor Linkages
• Affinities: Mind Share
Setting the Stage: Defining Your Region
Defining a Region
Exercise: What’s the Bluegrass?
Defining a Region
The Lexington-Fayette, KY Metropolitan Statistical Area is the 109th largest Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in the United States. It was originally formed by the United States Census Bureau in 1950 and consisted solely of Fayette County until 1980 when surrounding counties saw increases in their population densities and the number of their residents employed within Lexington-Fayette, which led to them meeting Census criteria to be added to the MSA. MSA counties include Bourbon, Clark, Fayette, Jessamine, Scott, and Woodford.
The Lexington-Fayette, KY MSA is the primary MSA of the Lexington-Fayette-Frankfort-Richmond, KY Combined Statistical Area which includes the Micropolitan Statistical Areas of Frankfort, KY (Franklin and Anderson counties), Mount Sterling, KY (Montgomery, Bath, and Menifee counties), and Richmond, KY (Madison and Rockcastle counties). The Lexington-Fayette-Frankfort-Richmond, KY Combined Statistical Area has a July 1, 2005 Census Bureau estimated population of 635,642.
Defining a Region
• Analog: Quantitative: People, Businesses and Places
• Digital: Qualitative: Surveys, Interviews, Focus Groups
• Think about the structure of the story from Day 1
Using Data to Tell a Story
Telling a Story
Study what others are doing
Telling a Story
13
Santa FeTelling a Story
14
London, UK
Some Big Picture Themes
• Is our population growing: | Population
• Are we producing jobs? | Employment
• Are we generating income? | Income
This story, although helpful, only sets the stage
Telling a Story
Drawing a clear pictureTactic 1: Use benchmark communities to
measure progress
16
Mobile
Augusta Aiken
Charleston-N Charleston
Chattanooga
Savannah
Columbia
Lexington
Colorado Springs
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000
2000 per capita income
$22,677
$23,816
$24,458
$26,781
$27,289
$27,741
$28,597
$28,804
Telling a Story
Drawing a clear pictureTactic 2: Use growth rates in wage and
salaried employment
17
Augusta Aiken
Charleston-N Charleston
Columbia
Savannah
Chattanooga
Mobile
Lexington
Colorado Springs
0 0.1
CAGR wage and salaried employment, 1990-2000
0.6%
0.9%
1.3%
1.7%
1.9%
2.5%
2.6%
3.7%
Telling a Story
Drawing a clear pictureTactic 3: Use index to compare
employment growth
18
Telling a Story
19
Navy base closes
Charleston forms a regional alliance
Telling a Story
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 20030
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Nominal PCI growth (1969=100)
United States
Oklahoma City, OK (MSA)
Oil Bust
Norrick Elected
MAPS passes
Forward OKC launched
Baseball stadiumopens
The story of Oklahoma City in 1 slide
Telling a Story
• Brainpower
• Education and training
• Research
• Innovation
• Entrepreneurship and business development networks
• Physical infrastructure
• Connectivity
• Attractions
Drawing a clear pictureTactic 4: Mapping Your Assets (on maps)
21
Telling a Story
Telling a Story
• Traded business (economic base) analysis | Cluster analysis
• Local business analysis: Retail capture and leakage
• Location quotients
• Shift share
• SWOT
• Social Network Analysis
• Regional Asset Mapping
Analytic Tools You Can Use
23
Your Tools
• Identification: Secondary data and location quotients
• Identification: Interviews and focus groups
Traded businesses and clusters
24
Your Tools
Tip: Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness: Competitiveness Data ($) http://www.isc.hbs.edu/
• Trade area potential
• Retail leakage
• Transformation to a traded cluster: tourism connection
Local businesses
25
Your Tools
Tip: Plugging the Leaks: http://www.pluggingtheleaks.org/
Cluster Maps from Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness
26http://www.isc.hbs.edu/
Your Tools
http://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/innovation/data.html
Unlocking Rural Competitiveness
Your Tools
Tip: Unlocking Rural Competitiveness
Location quotients measure concentration
28
• A measure of concentration or specialization: A simple ratio
• A location quotient is simply a ratio comparing the local percentage of employment in a sector to the national average percentage of employment in that sector.
• Location quotient > 1
Your region is more specialized than the nation as a whole
Suggests a regional advantage
Your Tools
29
Shift Share: Breaks down growth into components
Your Tools
Source: Georgia TechTip: Georgia Tech Course on Economic Development Analysis: http://cherry.iac.gatech.edu/6602/xschedule.htm
Shift Share: Breaks down growth into components
30
Source: Georgia TechTip: Georgia Tech Course on Economic Development Analysis: http://cherry.iac.gatech.edu/6602/xschedule.htm
Your Tools
SWOT: An Organizing Framework
Source: Angelou Economics
Your Tools
Your Tools
Your Tools
Exercise: SWOT to Story
Your Tools
Social network analysis helps you understand connections
35
Your Tools
Tip: The Tipping Point
Social Network Mapof the
Southwest Regional Leadership ForumUniversity of Evansville
March 17, 2006
Presented by the Indiana Humaniteis Council
Which region is stronger?Your Tools
Knowledge Person;
Hub
Boundary Spanner
Knowledge Person;
Hub; Influencer
Peripheral
Person
Information
Broker
Knowledge
Person
Successful communities will understand the power of networks
Your Tools
Peripheral
Boundary Spanner
Hub
Mapping your networksYour Tools
Tip: www.inspiration.com
Your Tools
Tip: Council on Competitiveness Guidebook available on http://edi-strategy.net
Telling a Story
Tip: Business Week: “Mapping the Crowd”, November, 15, 2007
Start at: http://www.econdata.net
Finding Data: Start here....
Finding Data
Finding Data: And here....
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd
Courtesy: Ed Morrison & Tim Chase
Finding Data
• Step 1: Define your message
• Step 2: Be clear on the comparison
• Step 3: Choose a chart type
Use Each Chart to Tell a Part of Your Story
Drawing Charts
• Be clear and concise about the message
• Focus on the aspect of the data you want to emphasize
• Put the message at the top of the graph
Defining the Message
Drawing Charts
North (13%)
South (35%)
East (27%)
West (25%)
North (39%)
South (6%)East (27%)
West (28%)
Company A Company B
West
East
South
North
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
13%
39%
35%
6%
27%
27%
25%
28%
Company A
Company B
What’s the message?Drawing Charts
• Component comparisons: (%)
• Item comparisons: (rank)
• Time series comparisons: (change over time)
• Frequency distribution comparisons (distributions)
• Correlation comparisons (relationships)
Types of Comparisons
Drawing Charts
Component Comparisons (%)
• We are interested in showing the size of a component relative to the whole
• Your message includes the words: share, percentage of total, accounted for X percent
• Use pie and stacked bar charts
North (13%)
South (35%)
East (27%)
West (25%)
North (39%)
South (6%)East (27%)
West (28%)
Company A Company B
Company A Company B0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
13%
35%
27%
25%
39%
6%
27%
28%
North
South
East
West
Drawing Charts
Item Comparisons
• We want to compare how things rank: Are they about the same? Is one more (or less) than another?
• Message words: larger than, smaller than, equal to
• Use horizontal bar chart
Augusta Aiken
Charleston-N Charleston
Columbia
Savannah
Chattanooga
Mobile
Lexington
Colorado Springs
0 0.1
CAGR wage and salaried employment, 1990-2000
0.6%
0.9%
1.3%
1.7%
1.9%
2.5%
2.6%
3.7%
Drawing Charts
Time Series
• We want to see how something changes over time
• Message words: increase, decrease, change, grow, decline
• Use charts: column or line
Drawing Charts
Correlation Comparisons
• Show a pattern between two variables
• Message: related to, increases with, changes with
• Use scatter plot
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
State per capita income
Percent of adults with 4 years of college or more
Drawing Charts
Exercise: Defining Your Messages Clearly
Drawing Charts
Drawing Charts What’s the message?
Drawing Charts What’s the message?
Drawing Charts What’s the message?
Drawing Charts What’s the message?
Drawing Charts What’s the message?
• We need to start with brains powered by 21st Century Skills.
• We convert our brainpower into wealth with innovation and entrepreneurship.
The Basic Story Line: A Template
A Basic Story Line
• We need to attract people by developing quality, connected places.
• We need to brand ourselves with compelling stories.
• We need collaboration to keep us aligned and focused.
The Basic Story Line: PART 2
A Basic Story Line
Source: Ed Morrison
A Framework for Strategic StoriesA Basic Story Line
HealthyBrainpower and
World Class Skills
Entrepreneur and
Innovation Networks
Insightful Stories and Effective
Branding
Infrastructure for Quality,Connected
Places
Civic Collaboration
Innovative Businesses
Healthy, Creative Places
Healthy, CreativePeople
Dynamic Clusters
Here is the simple story line...
Regions will prosper on the Second Curve with balanced strategies that...
1. Build world class brainpower
2. Translate brainpower into wealth through innovation and
entrepreneurship networks
3. Create quality, connected places where “hot spots” can develop
4. Create a buzz with a brand
5. Continuously strengthen habits of civic collaboration
A Basic Story Line
Chapters of the Story
A Basic Story Line
• High school graduation rates
• College attainment
• High school drop outs
• College continuation rates
• STEM metrics (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math)
Brainpower: Talent Development | Our People
A Basic Story Line
How well are we doing developing brainpower with 21st Century Skills?
• Research and technology base: Research $, SBIRs, patents
• New business starts
• 2d Stage entrepreneurs: (EE 9-99) -- Lowe Foundation coming 1Q 2008
• Cluster development
Innovation: Entrepreneurship: Clusters: Business Development
| Our Businesses
A Basic Story Line
How well are we converting brainpower into wealth through innovation and entrepreneurship?
• Broadband
• Commercial, industrial inventory
• Roads
• Water
• Other “quality of life” indicators
• Housing
Quality Connected Places: Physical Development | Our
Places
A Basic Story Line
How well are we developing a “sticky” place for people and business?
• Stories and testimonials
• Awareness research
Branding | Our Story
A Basic Story Line
How well are we telling our story to ourselves, our children, and outsiders?
A Basic Story Line
• Community forums | Connections, Attendance
• Civility | Public attitudes and behaviors
• Mapping Actors in the Story
• Social network mapping
Collaboration and Leadership: Skills and Attitudes | Our
Leadership
A Basic Story Line
How well are we aligning, linking and leveraging our resources through collaboration?
Converting analog to digital
Neil Reid, Ph.D., and Michael C. Carroll, Ph.D., "Structuring a Successful Greenhouse Cluster in Northwest Ohio", The IEDC Economic Development Journal, Fall, 2006
Converting analog to digitalA Basic Story Line
Fostering and Nurturing Entrepreneurship in Northeast Ohio, A report of NorTech's Entrepreneurship Task Force, 2003
Exercise: Developing a Story from a Mass
of Data