Silicon Valley 2.0 - Climate Preparedness Gap Analysis 50 Ecosystem Sector Ecosystem Sector Introduction: The San Francisco Bay Area is a biodiversity hotspot that contains unique collections of species found nowhere else on Earth. Climate change is anticipated to lead to substantial changes to biodiversity and ecosystem function in the region. As the climate changes, species will be forced to adapt to these changes in situ or move to new areas where environmental conditions are more favorable. As individuals within populations respond to changes in climate, habitat, landscapes, and species composition will all shift and change uniquely. These changes may potentially not be in concert, leading to significant shifts in the way we perceive the unique habitats of the Santa Clara County (County) and South San Francisco Bay (South Bay) region today. With this change, ecosystem services, such as flood control, carbon storage, forage production and water supply, which are provided by natural landscapes, will also change. This will in turn affect adjacent urban and rural developed areas and human activities. Changes in temperature and precipitation will cause shifts in phenology, the biological timing of events in nature that are correlated with climate and season. As a result, species are anticipated to adapt, or shift, within the region to new favorable locations associated with shifting preferred climates (generally to higher elevations and more northern aspects with warming and drying conditions anticipated); however, it is anticipated that many of these changes will not happen in concert, leading to a break up of the assemblages of species occurring today, along with the functional roles they provide. The characteristics of landscape patterns and processes to support this movement are also anticipated to change (e.g. suitable wildlife corridors and conditions favorable for species dispersal, plant regeneration, etc.). Certain species will be more susceptible to climate change, particularly those on the warmer/drier edge of their current range and those with limited mobility. Some species may be unable to adapt or shift and may die off locally or go extinct. Many of the ecological changes are likely to be complex and difficult to predict. Subsequent sections in this chapter present the predicted vulnerabilities faced by the ecosystem sector as a result of climate change, and the extent to which these vulnerabilities have been identified as having already been or are currently being addressed by the ecosystem sector in the region. Climate Change Vulnerabilities in the Ecosystem Sector: The ecosystem sector in the Santa Clara County region is vulnerable to six major climate change variables 1 : Sea level rise Storm surge Riverine Flooding Temperature change (towards a warmer climate) Precipitation change (including changes in seasonal timing, towards a wetter or drier climate) 1 Climate change will likely impact all habitat assets described. Here we focus on habitats particularly at risk to the following climate change variables. For more details, see the Ecosystem Sensitivity Analysis.
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Silicon Valley 2.0 - Climate Preparedness Gap Analysis
50 Ecosystem Sector
Ecosystem Sector Introduction: The San Francisco Bay Area is a biodiversity hotspot that contains unique collections of species found
nowhere else on Earth. Climate change is anticipated to lead to substantial changes to biodiversity and
ecosystem function in the region. As the climate changes, species will be forced to adapt to these
changes in situ or move to new areas where environmental conditions are more favorable. As
individuals within populations respond to changes in climate, habitat, landscapes, and species
composition will all shift and change uniquely. These changes may potentially not be in concert, leading
to significant shifts in the way we perceive the unique habitats of the Santa Clara County (County) and
South San Francisco Bay (South Bay) region today. With this change, ecosystem services, such as flood
control, carbon storage, forage production and water supply, which are provided by natural landscapes,
will also change. This will in turn affect adjacent urban and rural developed areas and human activities.
Changes in temperature and precipitation will cause shifts in phenology, the biological timing of events
in nature that are correlated with climate and season. As a result, species are anticipated to adapt, or
shift, within the region to new favorable locations associated with shifting preferred climates (generally
to higher elevations and more northern aspects with warming and drying conditions anticipated);
however, it is anticipated that many of these changes will not happen in concert, leading to a break up
of the assemblages of species occurring today, along with the functional roles they provide. The
characteristics of landscape patterns and processes to support this movement are also anticipated to
change (e.g. suitable wildlife corridors and conditions favorable for species dispersal, plant regeneration,
etc.). Certain species will be more susceptible to climate change, particularly those on the warmer/drier
edge of their current range and those with limited mobility. Some species may be unable to adapt or
shift and may die off locally or go extinct. Many of the ecological changes are likely to be complex and
difficult to predict.
Subsequent sections in this chapter present the predicted vulnerabilities faced by the ecosystem sector
as a result of climate change, and the extent to which these vulnerabilities have been identified as
having already been or are currently being addressed by the ecosystem sector in the region.
Climate Change Vulnerabilities in the Ecosystem Sector: The ecosystem sector in the Santa Clara County region is vulnerable to six major climate change
variables1:
Sea level rise
Storm surge
Riverine Flooding
Temperature change (towards a warmer climate)
Precipitation change (including changes in seasonal timing, towards a wetter or drier climate)
1 Climate change will likely impact all habitat assets described. Here we focus on habitats particularly at risk to the
following climate change variables. For more details, see the Ecosystem Sensitivity Analysis.
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Ecosystem Sector 51
Wildfire
Note that in the Vulnerability Assessment, for the Ecosystems Sector, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
were combined into a single category called Sea Level Rise. For more information on the nature and
projected trends in these variables, refer to Silicon Valley 2.0 Climate Change Memorandum. For the
ecosystem sector, assets are defined as primary habitat types within the Santa Clara County region.
Habitat types are summarized into 12 habitat types2, which include:
Coastal Salt Marsh / Coastal Brackish Marsh Grassland
Freshwater Lake and Pond Oak Woodland
Freshwater Wetland Hardwood Forest
Riparian and Riverine Coniferous Forest
Coastal Scrubland Redwood Forest
Chaparral / Interior Scrubland Open Water (the Bay)*
*NOTE: Open water is the Bay and was not analyzed further in this assessment. The urban environment
(developed and ruderal) and agricultural landscape were not included in this assessment.
The principle components of each habitat asset include: (1) landscape and vegetative community
(Landscape), (2) wildlife and special-status species (Wildlife & Species of Special Concern (SSC)), and (3)
ecosystem service and function (Ecosystem Fn). Climate related impacts were assessed for each
principle component of the habitat asset. All three habitat components are likely to be impacted by
climate change for each of the habitat assets listed in Table 1 below. The habitat assets of the ecosystem
sector that are affected by these climate change variables and the nature of impacts on the habitat
assets and components affected by the impacts are summarized below in Table 1.
Table 1: Climate Change Variables and Impacts relevant to the Ecosystem Sector in Santa Clara County
Permanent inundation of habitat assets near coastline, habitat loss, inability for upland habitat migration due to human-built environment, saltwater intrusion to freshwater systems, drinking water, loss of freshwater supplies, loss of habitat (e.g. nest failure, burrow inundation, etc.).
2 Habitat types were summarized from the approximately 50 habitat types mapped by the Bay Area Open Space
Council 2012. Available: http://www.bayarealands.org/gis/download/Vegetation_032411.pdf
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52 Ecosystem Sector
Storm Surge
- Grassland (near coastline) - Riparian and Riverine - Coastal Salt Marsh / Coastal
Brackish Marsh - Freshwater Wetland - Freshwater Lake and Pond
Damage to coastal habitat assets from increased storm surge intensity and frequency, saltwater intrusion into freshwater systems, hydrology changes, crop loss, food loss, loss of habitat (e.g. nest failure, burrow inundation, etc.).
Riverine Flooding
- Chaparral and Scrubland - Riparian and Riverine - Freshwater Wetland - Coastal Salt Marsh / Coastal
Brackish Marsh - Freshwater Lake and Pond - Grassland
Flooding on slopes leading to erosion, species composition, habitat loss, increase in sedimentation in aquatic habitats, impacts to fishes through loss of spawning habitat, egg loss and failure, loss of individuals, esp. juveniles, vegetation loss in all habitats affected, including agricultural, riparian function loss, structural damage (related to habitat loss in built environment)
Temperature Change
All Habitats, especially:
- Coniferous Forest - Hardwood Forest - Oak Woodland - Riparian and Riverine - Freshwater Wetland - Freshwater Lake and Pond - Redwood Forest - Grasslands
Heat stress leading to population loss, loss of populations/species dependent on cooler environments (e.g. redwoods), phenological changes, fuel loading supporting wildfire increase, landscape species composition changes, succession - gradual shift to grassland habitats as species move to higher elevations and cooler climates, increase in invasive species, freshwater availability loss and increased competition (inc. human environment) for aquatic resources, crop loss, loss of food supply
Precipitation Change
All Habitats, especially:
- Coniferous Forest - Hardwood Forest - Oak Woodland - Redwood Forest - Riparian and Riverine - Freshwater Wetland - Freshwater lake and Pond - Grasslands
Drought, less summer precipitation, exacerbated effects to temperature change listed above, reduction in freshwater and ground water supplies, increase competition for water (including with human environment), vegetation loss leading to increases in wildfire and landslide/erosion, gradual habitat changes, phenological changes
Wildfire
- Coniferous Forest - Hardwood Forest - Redwood Forest - Oak Woodland - Coastal Wetland - Riparian and Riverine - Freshwater Lake and Pond
Loss (potentially catastrophic) of populations and species, changes to natural habitat fire cycles, loss of carbon sinks, increase of carbon dioxide in atmosphere, habitat loss/change, shade loss, increase in sedimentation, reduced water quality, food loss
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Existing Efforts to Address Ecosystem Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate
Change: This section provides an overview of existing ecosystem sector climate change preparedness efforts in the county. The section is organized by climate change variable and by specific type of asset vulnerability. An overview of the asset vulnerability (e.g. impacts to coastal wetland habitat as a result of sea level rise) is provided, followed by descriptions of the existing effort(s), the level of implementation (i.e., vulnerability assessment, risk assessment, strategy development, or strategy implementation), and the relevant organizations, research groups, and government agencies involved.
Efforts Addressing Changes in Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
Description of Habitat Vulnerabilities
Sea level rise will alter current intertidal, wetland, and coastal habitats and adjacent upland landscapes
by causing changes to water depth in the South Bay and corresponding species inundation levels, storm
effects, saltwater intrusion, and changing ecological characteristics associated with levees, dikes and
built infrastructure within the sea level rise zone. Species, including special-status and sensitive species,
within these areas will be affected, as will the flood protection and water quality services provided by
these ecosystems.
Sedimentation from within the Bay and originating from upstream watersheds is a key variable in the
ability of intertidal wetlands in the South Bay to “rise” with sea levels and continue to provide habitat
and ecosystem services similar to current levels. Sedimentation from upstream watersheds is affected
by land use characteristics in the watersheds; sediment and hydrology management activities within
flood control, stormwater, and conveyance infrastructure; and climate-driven changes such as increased
fires and vegetation change within more natural areas in the upper reaches of the watersheds. While
land use characteristics such as urban expansion, land use, and management activities can largely be
controlled by decision makers, climate change variables such as stronger winter storms, increased fire
frequency, and warmer temperatures will have important effects on these watershed hydrologic
characteristics that will in turn effect sedimentation rates and sea level rise impacts to intertidal
ecosystems. More fires in particular could have a big effect in altering sediment regimes.
The level of impact and ability of intertidal ecosystems to adapt to climate change is also dependent on
future characteristics of watersheds draining into the South Bay. See Riverine Flooding and
Sedimentation Loading for details. It will be important for plans and activities within upstream portions
of the watersheds to synergize with activities in and adjacent to the current intertidal zone to address
the sedimentation relationship in adapting to sea level rise. In summary, sea level rise may directly
disrupt coastal and adjacent upland habitat, which are critical to ecosystem function in Santa Clara
County.
Additionally, stronger storms and associated storm surges will affect hydrology and coastal ecosystem
habitats. Storm surges can cause damage to coastal habitat assets including both the physical damage
caused by the storm surge as well as saltwater intrusion into freshwater habitat and watersheds. These
climate driven changes in storm surge may surpass existing capabilities of current infrastructure because
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54 Ecosystem Sector
current infrastructure is not sufficiently sized to handle the frequency, duration, and intensity of
stronger storm surge events.
Existing Climate Change Preparedness Efforts
In order to ensure the viability of coastal habitats in the face of sea level rise and storm surge in Santa
Clara County, the following policies, procedures, and actions consistent with typical stages in a climate
change adaptation planning process have been implemented.
[Note: Given that sea level rise and storm surge has the ability to impact multiple sectors at a large
geographic scale, most efforts related to sea level rise preparedness are occurring via regional
collaborations, and are not specific to ecosystem sector assets. Many of these other efforts are described
in the Shoreline Protection Infrastructure Chapter of this document.]
Point Reyes Bird Observatory (PRBO) Online Decision Support Tool for managers, planners,
conservation practitioners, and scientists
Description: Web-based tool to assist decision makers in understanding the changing favorable habitat
locations for a variety of plant and bird species under potential climate change scenarios within current
and future intertidal zones. The tool includes the ability to adjust climate variables of sedimentation and
sea level rise through the late century to view potential changes as a result. This is the most advanced
and robust web-based decision support tool understood to be available to assess climate change
exposures.
Implementation level: Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Assessment
Relevant agencies: California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), United States Fish and
Wildlife Service (USFWS), California Coastal Conservancy, Bay Conservation and Development
Commission (BCDC), California Coastal Program of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, Santa Clara
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Ecosystem Sector 59
fires will alter habitats and ecosystem services. Fires can lead to increased sedimentation, flooding, and
landslides. Fires can result in increased greenhouse gas emissions from the landscape carbon pool as
biomass is lost to burning of biomass or changing soil carbon content.
Existing Climate Change Preparedness Efforts
This analysis did not identify any policies, procedures, and actions related to climate-change induced
increases in wildfire (i.e., frequency or extent) and ecosystem climate change preparedness.
Parallel Efforts with Potential Climate Change Preparedness Benefits
While no explicit climate change-related initiatives were identified, a variety of existing policies,
procedures, and actions could be utilized to help prepare the sector for the future changes in wildfire
regimes.
California Statewide Adaption Strategy – Chapter 9 - Forestry
Description: To better assess impacts to forestry and wildfire, the California government has
created an adaptation strategy guide to assist stakeholders, foresters, and land use planners in
creating local adaptation strategies.
Implementation level: Parallel Effort with Climate Change Preparedness Benefits
Relevant agencies: Santa Clara County Parks, USFWS, CDFW
Documentation of efforts:
o http://resources.ca.gov/climate_adaptation/docs/Statewide_Adaptation_Strategy_-
_Chapter_9_-_Forestry.pdf
Efforts Addressing Multiple Climate Change Variables Previous sections in this chapter have shown that habitats comprising Santa Clara County ecosystems
exhibit to some extent, an existing capacity to be able to withstand anticipated impacts of climate
change. Beyond the natural landscape ability to adapt to changes in climatic regime, several initiatives
have been developed to mitigate the potential impacts to these habitats.
Some adaptation efforts initiated by agencies simultaneously address more than one type of climate
change vulnerability. For example, efforts to better manage wildfire regime can reduce the likelihood for
catastrophic wildfire, as well as reduce sediment loading in freshwater riparian habitat, coastal runoff,
and thereby increase carbon storage in the intact forest ecosystems. In addition to these efforts that
have demonstrated co-benefits, agencies, planning departments, and non-profit organizations have also
put in place policies, procedures, and actions that are aimed at facilitating the overall process of climate
change adaptation planning.
Bay Area Ecosystem Climate Change Consortium
Description: A consortium of natural resource managers, scientists, and other interested parties
to secure ecological and economic benefits for the Bay Area in the face of climate change. The
consortium was founded in 2009 and is operated by a Steering Committee of regional leaders
that supervise an Executive Coordinator. The consortium’s goals include reducing the negative
impacts of climate change on Bay Area ecosystems and wildlife, securing ecological,
recreational, and natural economic benefits, and enhancing the role of natural ecosystem
Summary of Existing Efforts to address Vulnerabilities Table 2 summarizes the existing efforts in the ecosystem sector to address anticipated impacts from
climate change. Given that the natural lands are a mosaic of publicly and privately owned in Santa Clara
County, efforts to mainstream climate change adaptation into land use management will depend greatly
on the municipalities that govern them and their ability to co-manage with private entities.
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64 Ecosystem Sector
Temperature & Precipitation
Change Multiple
Climate Change
Scientific Research
Ackerly Lab Research
UC Berkeley research lab focusing on ecosystem and species impacts to climate
change in the Bay Area
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
Temperature & Precipitation
Change
Multiple Terrestrial
Corridor Connectivity
Bay Area CLN
Long term connectivity scientific analysis and plan to link habitat landscape
conservation
Parallel Effort with Climate Change Preparedness
Benefits
Wildfire All Forests Climate Change
Planning
California State-wide
Forestry Adaptation
Adaptation strategy guide for forestry and wildfires
Parallel Effort with Climate Change Preparedness
Benefits
Multiple Multiple Policy/Planni
ng/ Operations
BAECCC
Creation of a consortium of climate change natural
resource planners, managers, and scientists
Adaptation Strategy Development
Multiple Multiple Policy/Planni
ng/ Operations
CA LCC Periodic review of scientific literature on climate change
variables
Adaptation Strategy Development
Summary of Existing Gaps in Climate Change Preparedness Efforts in the
Ecosystem Sector Table 3 provides a summary of existing efforts and gaps in ecosystem sector climate change
preparedness efforts. The Table lists the existing vulnerabilities of various assets in the sector to climate
change variables, along with an identification of whether climate change preparedness efforts are in
place to address these vulnerabilities, as well as a qualitative rating of the level of those climate change
preparedness efforts.
Several major initiatives have been launched to accommodate climate change effects on ecosystems
and species in the region. Most emphasis thus far has been focused on the intertidal zone and adjacent
areas to accommodate sea level rise. Terrestrially focused efforts emphasize protecting sensitive species
by creating regional-scale connected networks of ecologically diverse protected areas that can
accommodate species movement and associated natural processes as the climate changes. Other
important ecosystem services in the region have received little study thus far. These include: evaluating
and minimizing the loss of biomass accompanying shifts in vegetation types in the region (and resulting
greenhouse gas emissions); the effects of vegetation, precipitation, wildfire and hydrologic changes on
stream flooding and sedimentation/erosion/landslide rates within watersheds; contributions of
landscape vegetation change and increased evapotranspiration on air quality and the urban heat island
effect in the Santa Clara Valley; and expected increases in wildfire frequency and intensity and
associated changes to planning, design, and landscape management activities.
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Ecosystem Sector 65
Table 3: Level of Climate Change Preparedness Efforts in the Ecosystem Sector
Climate Change Variable Habitat Asset Affected Nature of Impact
Existing Climate Change
Preparedness Efforts?
Level of Climate Change
Preparedness Efforts
Sea Level Rise Coastal Habitat Coastal Wetland
Permanent inundation of habitat assets near coastline, habitat loss, inability for upland habitat migration due to human-built environment, saltwater intrusion to freshwater systems, drinking water, freshwater supplies, loss of habitat (e.g. nest failure, burrow inundation, etc.).
Yes Medium
Storm Surge
Coastal Habitat Riparian and Riverine Coastal Wetland Freshwater Wetland Freshwater Lake and Pond
Damage to coastal habitat assets from increased storm surge intensity and frequency, saltwater intrusion into freshwater systems, hydrology changes, impacts to infrastructure (levees, sea walls, buildings), crop loss, food loss, loss of habitat (e.g. nest failure, burrow inundation, etc.).
No None
Precipitation Change (Riverine Flooding)
Chaparral and Scrubland Riparian and Riverine Freshwater Wetland Freshwater Lake and Pond
Flooding on slopes leading to erosion, species composition, habitat loss, increase in sedimentation in aquatic habitats, impacts to fishes through loss of spawning habitat, egg loss and failure, loss of individuals, esp. juveniles, vegetation loss in all habitats affected, including agricultural, riparian fn loss, structural damage (related to habitat loss in built environment)
Yes Low
Temperature Change (Shift to a Warmer Climate)
All Habitats
Heat stress leading to population loss, loss of populations/species dependent on cooler environments (e.g. redwoods), phenological changes, fuel loading supporting wildfire increase, landscape species composition changes, succession - gradual shift to grassland habitats as species move to higher elevations and cooler climates, increase in invasive species, freshwater availability loss and increased competition (inc. human environment) for aquatic resources, crop loss, loss of food supply
Yes Low
Precipitation Change (Shift to a Drier Climate)
All Habitats
Drought, less summer precipitation, exacerbated effects to temperature change listed above, reduction in freshwater and ground water supplies, increase competition for water (including with human environment), vegetation loss leading to increases in wildfire and landslide/erosion, gradual habitat changes, phenological changes
Yes Low
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66 Ecosystem Sector
Wildfire
Coniferous Forest Hardwood Forest Oak Woodland Coastal Wetland Freshwater Wetland Freshwater Lake and Pond
Loss (potentially catastrophic) of populations and species, changes to natural habitat fire cycles, loss of carbon sinks, increase of carbon dioxide in atmosphere, habitat loss/change, shade loss, increase in sedimentation, reduced water quality, food loss