Economics Second Assignment

7/30/2019 Economics Second Assignment

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Subject. Economics Theory

(Macro)

Topic. What is the Position of Province Sindh, after

flood 2011, and the people who are affected by it?

Submitted To. Sir,Ali Asghar Ghayour

Submitted By. Wajahat Ali Ghulam

Roll No. 01

Class. BBA 2nd (Morning)

Session. 2010-14

Faculty of Administrative SciencesKotli (A.K)

University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir

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Primarily, bow my head before Almighty Allah

who given me wisdom and an opportunity to

undertake this exploring work. Also to my

parents whose prayers always do a miracle for

me. Grateful acknowledgement is made to all

those who conceptualized, helped, trained and

guided and made me able to compile this

assignment.

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Infect I was not able to complete this task,

there are lot of guidelines that are given by my

Honorable Teacher as well as my Parents, their

devotion to me make me able to complete this

task.

I am also thankful to my teacher for her

guidance and cooperation

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Sr.

No

Topic Page

No.

01 2011, Sindh Floods Facts & Figures 502 A Background of Flood, Causes 5

02 Director General Pakistan Meteorological

Department

6

04 Heaviest Spell of Monsoon rains 2011 in

Sindh

7

05 Flooding and Impact, Protest by floodvictims

7

06 Domestic Reaction 7

07 Pakistan Armed Forces Figures 8

08 Pakistan Economy due to Flood 9

09 UNDPS Early Recovery Programme 11

10 UNDPS National Good will Ambassadorvisits flood affected areas in Nowshera

11

11 The Pakistan Perspective 13

12 Role of Govt. Institutions 14

13 The Question of land reforms 16

14 Challenges of International

Organizations in Pakistan

16

15 Assistance in the coordination of aid 17

16 References 18


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2011 Sindh floodsFACTS AND FIGURES

Duration:August 2011presentFatalities:At least 361 dead, 5.5 million affectedDamages: 5.5 million affected, 2.7 million children affected, 4.5 millionacres land damaged, 1.19 million homes damagedAreas affected: Sindh, southern Baluchistan, and eastern PunjabA BACKGROUND OF FLOOD 2011

The 2011 Sindh floods began during the Pakistani monsoon seasonin mid-August 2011, resulting from heavy monsoon rains in Sindh,eastern Baluchistan, and southern Punjab. The floods have causedconsiderable damage; an estimated 361 civilians have been killed, with5.3 million people and 1.2 million homes affected. Sindh is a fertile regionand often called the "breadbasket" of the country; the damage and toll ofthe floods on the local agrarian economy is said to be extensive. At least1.7 million acres of arable land have been inundated as a result of the

flooding. The flooding follows the previous year's historic 2010 Pakistanfloods, which devastated the entire country. Unprecedented torrentialmonsoon rains caused severe flooding in 16 districts of Sindh province.

CausesIn the month of July Pakistan received below normal monsoon rains,

however in August and September the country received above normalmonsoon rains. A strong weather pattern entered the areas of Sindh from

the Indian states of Rajasthan and Gujarat in August and gained strengthwith the passage of time and caused heavy downpours. The four weeksof continuous rain have created an unprecedented flood situation inSindh.

The District Badin in Sindh province received record breaking rainfallof 615.3 millimeters (24.22 in) during the monsoon spell breaking earlierrecorded 121 millimeters (4.8 in) in Badin in 1936. The area of Mithi alsoreceived record rainfall of 1,290 millimeters (51 i in) during the spell,

where maximum rainfall was recorded 114 millimeters (4.5 in) in Mithi in2004. The heavy cloudburst during last 4872 hours displaced manypeople besides destroying crops in the area. The Met Office had informed

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all district coordination officers, Provincial Disaster ManagementAuthority, chief secretaries and chief ministers about the heavy monsoonrain-spell two days ago to take precautionary measures.

Director General Pakistan Meteorological DepartmentDr.Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director General PakistanMeteorological Department said: the rains in Sindh are the highest everrecorded monsoon rains during the four weeks period of August andSeptember, 2011. Before the start of these rains in the second week of

August, Sindh was under severe drought conditions and it had notreceived any rainfall for the last 12 months. The last severe rainfallflooding in Sindh occurred in July 2003, he said and added, but this time

the devastating rains ofMithi, Mirpurkhas, Diplo, Parker, Nawabshah,Badin, Chhor, Padidan, and Hyderabad etc during the four weeksperiod have created unprecedented flood situation in Sindh. According toDr. Qamar, the total volume of water fallen over Sindh during the fourweeks is estimated to be above 37 million acre feet, which isunimaginable.[4] The August monsoon rainfall, over province of Sindh(271 % above normal) is the heaviest recorded during the period 19612011.

Torrential rainfall recorded in August and September in SindhFollowing are the heavy rainfalls recorded in sindh province in the monthsof August and September, 2011 based on data from the PakistanMeteorological Department.The first monsoon spell hit the southern partsof sindh on 10 August, that produce record breaking widespread torrentialrainfalls and resulted in floods in district Badin. while the second spell hitthe areas on 30 August, that lasted till 2 September.

In the month of September four more consecutive spells of monsoon

rainfall devastated the southern parts of the province. The first spell ofSeptember hit the already inundated parts of province on 2 September,thereafter the second spell hit on 5 September, and the third on 9September, and fourth on 12 September 2011.[9] The four spells ofmonsoon produced even more devastating torrential rains in the alreadyflooded affected areas of sindh.City August

Rainfall (mm)Rainfall (in) September

Rainfall (mm)Rainfall (in) Total Rainfall (mm) Total Rainfall

(in)

Mithi 530* 21.0 760* 30.0 1290* 51.0

Mirpur Khas 263.1* 10.3 603* 23.7 866.1* 34.1

Nawabshah 275.2* 10.8 353.2* 13.9 628.4* 24.7

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Badin 331.2* 13.0 284.1 11.1 615.3* 24.2

Chhor 276 10.9 268 10.6 544* 21.4

Dadu 134.1 5.2 348.1 13.7 482.2* 18.9

Padidan 251.2 9.8 172 6.8 423.2* 16.6Hyderabad 162.2 6.3 244.2 9.6 406.4 16.0Karachi 61.2 2.4 212.2 8.3 273.3 10.7

*Indicates new record.Heaviest spell of Monsoon rains of 2011 in SindhFollowing are the heaviest rainfalls recorded in the Monsoon spell in sindh provincein the months of August and September, 2011 based on data from the PakistanMeteorological Department.

City Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (in) Monsoon Spell NotesMithi 760 30.0 1 to 14 September*Mirpur Khas 603 23.7 1 to 14 September Padidan 356 14.0 30 August to 4 September*Nawabshah 353.2 13.9 1 to 14 September Dadu 348.1 13.7 1 to 14 September Badin 302.1 11.8 10 to 14 August*Chhor 268 10.6 1 to 14 September Hyderabad 244.2 9.6 1 to 14 September Karachi 212.2 8.3 1 to 14 September

* 1 to 14 September 2011 four consecutive spells of monsoon rains.

* 1 to 14 August 2011 first spells of monsoon rains in sindh.* 30 August to 4 September second spell of monsoon rains in sindh.Flooding and impact

Millions of people have been affected because of heavy rains thatstarted in August, coinciding with monsoon season. The villages havebecome easily affected because of it Badin is a red alert one which canbe thought to be flooded. The area of Sangarh is declared as a mostdangerous one. Oxfam has warned that aid should be provided to

Pakistanis or they will die. 5.3 million People are to have been affectedbecause of floods. 200 people are said to have been killed.Protests by flood victims

Some Pakistanis affected by the flood are protesting thegovernment's response as slow and inadequate.

i. Health concernsii. Diseases spread. Gastroenteritis and malaria have killed many of

infected people.

Domestic reactionA special wing of the ministry of the Government of Sindh has beencreated to deal with the flooding. The Chief Minister of Sindh Qaim Ali

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Shah has visited the affected areas, announcing a million rupees in relieffor each of flood victims. Various politicians are also engaged in settingup relief camps for the victims. A helpline 0800-11-121 has been set upfor the victims.

PAK-ARMED FORCESThe Pakistani Army and Navy are actively engaged in flood relief

and helping victims. The flooding has been said by whom to have beenmore disastrous than the 2004 Tsunami.

A NASA satellite image showing the Indus River at the time of floods

PAKISTAN ECONOMY DUE TO FLOODPakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani is warning the country's

devastating floods will slow economic growth and lead to rising inflationand massive job losses.

In a speech to his Cabinet Wednesday, Mr. Gilani said economic

growth would drop to 2.5 percent from the predicted 4.5 percent in the2011 financial year.

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The prime minister also said inflation would likely hit 15 to 20 percentnext year.

More than a month of flooding triggered by monsoon rains has killedan estimated 1,600 people, affected nearly 20 million others, andsubmerged one-fifth of the country.

Mr. Gilani said the overall performance of Pakistan's agriculturesector will be much lower this year and next, affecting manufacturing,services and exports. He said this economic downturn will translate intomassive job and income losses for thousands of families and may havewhat he called "serious social implications."

United Nations officials have warned of hunger, homelessness,and desperation among the millions of flood victims.

They say 8.6 million children have been affected, and are warningthat without quick action, Pakistan is headed toward a second wave ofdeaths from waterborne illnesses.

Foreigner DelegatesU.N. officials say Pakistan has received more than $1 billion in

international assistance and pledges, but need more.

The receding waters in the north have allowed some people toreturn to their homes, but flooding in the south is spreading to new areas.

British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg visited flood-stricken

areas in southern Pakistan.Flooding in Sindh 2011

In total we plan to provide clean water and sanitation to nearly850,000 people in eight districts worstaffected by renewed flooding in Sindh.

Two weeks into our response,we have reached more than 238,190people. We have provided 137,979

people with clean water supplies,conducted hygiene promotion sessions

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with 8,428 people, provided 20,335 people with hygiene kits and assistedin the search and rescue of 58,208 people.

UNDP's Early Recovery ProgrammeUNDP has launched a US$120 million early recovery programme to helpcommunities affected by the recent floods across 39 most affecteddistricts to start to rebuild their lives. The one-year programme, part of abroader UN emergency response plan, aims at restoring livelihoodsthrough job creation, repairing basic community infrastructure, andstrengthening local government offices to get public services runningagain.

Recovering with resilience: Pakistan floods one year onOne year ago Pakistan was hit by unprecedented monsoon

rains and floods. Across the country the scope and scale of the crisis wasexceptional, affecting the lives of over 18 million people, washing awaycommunities and livelihoods, and forcing millions to flee from their homes.The crisis took the lives of a confirmed 1,980 people and left an estimated14 million in need of humanitarian assistance.

UNDP National Goodwill Ambassador Aisam ul Haq announcesUS$10,000 donation for flood affectees

United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP)National Goodwill Ambassador for Early Recovery and internationaltennis star, Aisam ul Haq announced a donation of USD 10,000 for floodEarly Recovery activities in Pakistan. The donation comes from the HaqFoundation and through funds contributed by the ATP World Tour USA -the professional regulatory body of the game of tennis.

European Union contributes 15 million Euros for recovery efforts in

PakistanThe European Union (EU) has contributed 15 million Euro (US$ 21.2million approx.) to support the United Nations Development Programmes(UNDP) early recovery work in Pakistan following the floods thatdevastated large parts of the country. UNDPs Early RecoveryProgramme aims at restoring livelihoods through job creation, repairingbasic community infrastructure and strengthening local governmentoffices to get public services running again.

Pakistans flood victims

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Pakistans flood victims start to settle into new homes and earn incomeFifty families uprooted by devastating floods earlier this year in Pakistansnorthernmost province of Gilgit-Baltistan have moved into new housesthey helped to build with support of the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP).

UNDP National Goodwill Ambassador visits flood affected areas inNowshera.

UNDP Pakistan has successfully supported numerousreconstruction projects including street pavements, drainage systems andculverts in flood hit areas while many others are in progress. Theseprojects also constitute UNDPs Cash for Work programme, whereincommunity members are provided supplies and paid employment to workon reconstruction of infrastructure in their communities and localities.

Executive SummeryIn July Pakistan was hit by a flood crisis of unexpected

dimension. Against this background the Heinrich-Bll-Stiftung initiated adialog with Pakistani and German representatives from politics,academics and the NGO sector on political and economic impacts of theflood and on current needs and challenges.

The impact of this natural catastrophe is disastrous: about 1.500 peopledied, hundreds of thousands of families lost their houses and huge partsof the countrys infrastructure were destroyed. The agricultural sector,Pakistans main source of income, was badly damaged. Moreover, thepresent crisis has a multiplying effect on the already existing crisesincluding food, fuel, fiscal, democracy, terrorism and climate crisis.

Particularly the northwest of Pakistan, the province of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa, is badly affected. After the flood struck the province with itsfull strength, the provincial government is now confronted with both anatural disaster and the impacts of the war on terror.

The governments overall crisis management in general was considered,by observers, to be inefficient and corrupt. Although eventuallygovernmental relief aid was provided, it was the military and militantgroups that came to the peoples immediate assistance.

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Germanys Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development(BMZ) has provided 35 Million Euro emergency aid to Pakistan and alsorestructured some ongoing development projects in order to meet theneeds of the flood affected people particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.Germany is also convinced that the Pakistan government is able andcommitted to support and assist its people, though it is not clear yetwhether it uses own funds or whether it needs financial support of theinternational community.

The existence of widespread corruption and institutionalweaknesses made international donors skeptical whether funds would beused properly. Since less than ten percent of the population are payingtaxes, it was also questioned whether Pakistan should fix this problemfirst before it gets more funds. Another controversy was the issue of landreforms, including redistribution of land to peasant families. However, itshould be considered that the deep rooted feudal structures in the countrycannot be changed overnight and that it is a lengthy process that needs acareful approach.

So far, international organizations in Pakistan face manychallenges including security and corruption issues, lack of coordinationin regard to emergency aid, lack of opportunities to implement availablefunds for projects, discrimination of minorities regarding their access toassistance or the general lack of basic information and data (population,meteorological data) for proper project planning.

Pakistan is still in need of international assistance. For theupcoming winter season, people need warm shelter, beds and blankets.Furthermore it is necessary to assess the needs of the people after thefirst emergency aid, particularly in terms of reconstruction and the

implementation of sustainable development projects. However, it is mostimportant that donors cooperate with a legitimate, elected governmentwith a strong monitoring and evaluation mechanism.Aim of the Conference

Pakistan is a crisis-ridden country it is challenged by political,economical, ecological and security problems. In July 2010, Pakistan washit by a flood disaster of unexpected dimension. About 1.500 people losttheir lives, hundreds of thousands of families became internally displaced

and huge parts of the country were destroyed. The impact of thiscatastrophe on the countrys stability is uncertain so far.

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The Heinrich-Bll-Stiftung initiated a dialog with Pakistani andGerman representatives from politics, academics and the NGO sector onpolitical and economic impacts of the flood and also on current needs andchallenges. Questions in regards to the regions stability were put in thefocus: Is the military the winner of disaster? Could Islamist organizationsstrengthen their image among the people? And is the aid of theinternational community sufficient? In regard to the last question, the workof the international community, particularly the role of Germany, washighlighted.The speakers from Pakistan were:

Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, Expert on the Pakistan Military, IslamabadDr. Abid Suleri, Executive Director of the Sustainable Development PolicyInstitute, IslamabadMuhammad Idrees Kamal, Citizens Rights and Sustainable Development,PeshawarShahgufta Malik, Member of Provincial Assembly in KhyberPakhtunkhwa, PeshawarThe speakers from Germany were:

Ute Koczy, Development Spokesperson of the Green Group(Bndnis 90/Die Grnen) in the German ParliamentChristiane Hieronymus, Head of the Afghanistan/Pakistan Department,Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentThomas Gebauer, Executive Director of Medico InternationalThe Pakistani Perspective: Status Quo Four Months after the Flood

In July this year the flood hit the north-west of Pakistanheading southwards in the following months and devastating huge partsof the country. People died. Hundred thousands of families lost theirhomes, their livestock or their cultivated fields. The flood did not onlydestroy the livelihood of already poor people but also affected importantparts of the infrastructure including education and health facilities.

The north-western part of Pakistan (the province of KhyberPakhtunkhwa formerly known as Northwest Frontier Province) wasaffected most by the flood. About 80 to 90 percent of the province wasdestroyed, particularly the region of Nowshera and Charsadda. Despitethe overall destructive force of this natural catastrophe, it was partly manmade in the southern province of Sindh. When the flood reached theprovince, it was already September. Thus, the federal as well as theprovincial government failed to take some precautions and arrangements.

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Furthermore, the flood caused the erosion of soil and thedamage of irrigation channels and cultivated fields. As a result,subsistence-based families remain vulnerable and dependent on externalsupport for a certain time. In a state, where agriculture constitutes themain source of income, the damage in the agrarian sector poses amidterm problem not only for single families but also for the entireeconomy of Pakistan.

Role of Government InstitutionsWhen the flood reached the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,

the government announced the evacuation of houses. This was initiallyrefused by many people, because hardly anybody believed in anupcoming disaster. The refusal of people to leave their homes is alsolinked to local cultures and traditions. Daily life takes place in the privacyof a familys home. Therefore, the destruction of houses deprives familiesof housing place and, at the same time, of a retreat, particularly for femalefamily members.

After the flood struck the province with its full strength, theprovincial government was paralyzed. It was a critical situation, as thegovernment had hardly any resources to provide aid to the people. It wasthe assistance of the military (and its equipment, such as helicopters andboats) that enabled the government to first rescue people and thenprovide food and non-food items. By now, the provincial government hasstarted different relief activities in almost every constituency. Camps wereestablished and food was distributed. Besides the provisions of tents,government school buildings were transferred into temporary shelters.Nevertheless, the help given was not sufficient, since the province was,prior to the flood, already in a state of war. Many people, particularlychildren and women, are mentally disturbed and most vulnerable in thiscrisis. Despite all efforts by the provincial government and other actors,

such as NGOs, civil society or host families, more resources and aid isurgently needed. In regard to the upcoming winter season, however, thetemporary tents are not sufficient any more. There is a need of warmshelters, beds and blankets. The main need, which cannot only beprovided by the provincial government, is, however, the beginning of arehabilitation process.

So far, the provincial government has not received anyfinancial support from the federal government or international donors. The

chief minister of the province has already initiated a meeting withinternational donor agencies to convince them of the necessity to help

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and support the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Regarding the ongoingwar on terror in the region, it is even more important to support this crisis-ridden province.

In general, Pakistan is in need of international support. Manyregional organizations, which help affected families, are charity based ordepended on external funding. Also the financial support of the Pakistangovernment does not meet the needs of the people so far. Thegovernment has issued so called Watan Cards with a balance of 20.000Rupees (approx. 180 EUR) to affected families. This amount is, however,not sufficient for the reconstruction of houses. Thus, main problems arethe rehabilitation and reconstruction of houses and livelihoods, as well asthe resettlement of homeless people. If such processes are not initiated inthe upcoming months, a crisis after the crisis will emerge and aggravatethe security situation in the region. In this regard, Pakistan needsassistance by the international donor community, also because thegovernment lacks functioning institutions to handle such issues.The Flood as a Catalyst for Existing Crises

Pakistan is facing a multi-fold crisis: a food, fuel, fiscal,democracy, terrorism and climate crisis. They are all interlinked andsomehow extent the effect of each other. The flood now multiplies theeffect of these already existing crises in the country. Prior to the flood,there was yet a food crisis in the country. According to a report by theWorld Food Programme and Sustainable Development Policy Institutereleased in June 2010, about 48 percent of Pakistans population isaffected by food insecurity. After the flood and its disastrous impacts, thiscrisis was aggravated and the number of people rose to 60 percent.

Pakistan has been facing a deteriorating fuel crisis for manyyears, which leads to energy shortage and blackouts. This crisis was inturn aggravated by a lack of energy and lack of budgetary discipline. Theflood threatened some of the power plants, and the supply of natural gas

and oil had to be reduced because of standing water.The Question of Land Reform

Another controversy was the role of land owners and thecontinuous need of a comprehensive land reform in a country which ischaracterized by feudal structures. In the course of the flood crisis, thisissue was raised again by different stakeholders in and outside Pakistan.Many tenants have lost their crops and fields their livelihood. Despitethe catastrophe, they are compelled to pay their tenure to affluent land

owners. There is a common understanding that these feudal structureswill have a negative impact on reconstruction and rehabilitation

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measures, and that they are also one of the root causes of poverty.Therefore, land reforms are demanded, including redistribution of land topeasant families who are depended on the good will of land owners.Nevertheless, it should be considered that these deep rooted feudalstructures cannot be changed overnight. It is a lengthy process thatneeds a careful approach.

Although the bilateral development cooperation betweenGermany and Pakistan does not include the agricultural sector, the issueof land reform is yet on the agenda and part of the dialogue.Impact Monitoring of Projects

In regard to the security situation and access to certain areas inPakistan, the evaluation and monitoring of projects is difficult. Manyinternational organizations rely entirely on the monitoring abilities of theirlocal partners. This is also the case for projects of the BMZ in theFederally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The ministry trains studentsfrom FATA in impact monitoring, in order to assure the efficiency ofprojects and the proper use of funds. This, in turn, is a contribution totraining and qualification of local people.Challenges for International Organizations in Pakistan

Development work or emergency aid is not an easy task inPakistan, particularly in times of crisis. The response of aid does notmatch the scale of devastation, which in turn creates frustration amongorganizations working on the ground in Pakistan. Furthermore,government institutions lack coordination of emergency aid. There is alsodiscrimination of minorities in terms of access to assistance. There is aselective distribution of relief goods by political actors and land lordsmainly in the south of the country. For many organizations, it is difficult tofind reliable partners to initiate projects. There is a general lack of basicinformation and data (population, meteorological data) for properplanning. Last but not least, general challenges include security issues

and corruption.The macroeconomic framework, including the fiscal situation,

poses another challenge for international donors. Pakistan has committeditself to realize certain fiscal reforms (e.g. reducing subsidies), which werenot implemented so far. Thus, donors have become impatient andunwilling to send more funds to Pakistan also in the light of the floodcrisis.

Until now, the government of Pakistan has not asked for

support for infrastructure reconstruction, but for direct budget supportinstead. Furthermore, the administrative system of Pakistan is not

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efficiently responsive to peoples needs and to the demands of theenvironment. Therefore, it is most important to assess the needs of thepeople after the first emergency aid has been implemented.Summary: Expectations, Needs and ChallengesShort term expectations:

Physical availability of food items therefore convincing policymakers to open trade with India through Wagah Border (near Lahore)Humanitarian relief items such as (warm) shelters, beds and blanketsRehabilitation and reconstruction of houses and livelihoodsBan of livestock export, since a huge number of people have lost theiranimalsAssistance in the coordination of aidMidterm expectations:

Land tenure arrangements, including redistribution and re-demarcation of land. This bears problems of corruption and anger, sinceland tenure or land ownership is not computerized.Distribution of seed and fertilizersSoil analysis for proper use of agricultural landLong term expectations:

An overall agricultural policy including land reform (because80% of land is in the hands of only 20% of people), crop cultivation, sizeof land, access to water etc.Resettlement programmes for people who live near the rivers

Anti-corruption programmesProgrammes for the social sector such as education and health

facilities Support in regard to the war on terror and its impact on thesociety Adjustment of aid policy of the international donor community,because it is virtually an extension of the policy of the war on terror (Forexample, Germany has concentrated its help only on KhyberPakhtunkhwa although other provinces are equally affected by the flood

and problems of militancy)Exchange of international donors, civil society and the government toaddress and reassess the needs of the people in order to implement aidprogrammes properly

Discontinuation of the sale of military equipment bysupplier states (fighter jets from USA and China, Negotiations on buyingSubmarines from Germany and France). It is the responsibility of supplierstates, which are at the same time donors of aid, to prevent Pakistan to

spend millions of dollars for military equipment.

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Exchange of regional experiences (India, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka)towards the establishment of institutional and social structures and how tomeet natural disastersTransparency in regard to the implementation of studies such as the post-disaster survey Damage and Needs Assessment of the World Bank and

Asian Development Bank (e.g. objections in terms of validity of data)Pakistan after the Flood: Needs and Challenges for a SustainableReconstructionRefrences:-www.google.com.pkWikipedi searchOther websites

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Economics Second Assignment

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