Economics 172 Issues in African Economic Development Professor Ted Miguel Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley
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Econ
omic
s 17
2Is
sues
in A
frica
n E
cono
mic
Dev
elop
men
t
Pro
fess
or T
ed M
igue
lD
epar
tmen
t of E
cono
mic
sU
nive
rsity
of C
alifo
rnia
, Ber
kele
y
Econ
omic
s 17
2Is
sues
in A
frica
n E
cono
mic
Dev
elop
men
t
Lect
ure
28 –
May
3, 2
007
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
3
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
4
Out
line:
(1)
The
Sie
rra
Leon
e C
ivil
War
(199
1-20
02) a
nd it
s af
term
ath
(2)
Ace
mog
lu, J
ohns
on, R
obin
son
(200
3) o
n B
otsw
ana
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
5
Con
flict
inte
nsity
and
pos
t-war
reco
very
•C
onfli
ct v
ictim
izat
ion
is –
surp
risin
gly
–po
sitiv
ely
asso
ciat
ed w
ith s
ever
al m
easu
res
of p
ostw
ar p
oliti
cal
mob
iliza
tion,
incl
udin
g co
mm
unity
mee
ting
atte
ndan
ce,
vote
r reg
istra
tion,
com
mun
ity g
roup
mem
bers
hip
–A
nd th
ere
is n
o si
gnifi
cant
neg
ativ
e re
latio
nshi
p be
twee
n co
nflic
t exp
osur
e an
d po
stw
ar 2
004
soci
oeco
nom
ic o
utco
mes
(per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
sc
hool
ing,
chi
ld n
utrit
ion)
–P
artia
l rec
over
y fro
m th
e w
ar a
ppea
rs to
hav
e be
en
very
rapi
d (w
ithin
onl
y a
few
yea
rs)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
6
-.4-.20.2Meeting Attendance (residuals)
-.20
.2C
onfli
ct v
ictim
izat
ion
inde
x (r
esid
uals
)
Mee
ting
Atte
ndan
ce (r
esid
uals
)Fi
tted
valu
es
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
7
Sie
rra L
eone
GD
P P
er C
apita
050100
150
200
250
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
US$ PPP
Sie
rra L
eone
GD
P P
erC
apita
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
8
The
botto
m li
ne•
We
find
no li
nger
ing
adve
rse
effe
cts
of c
ivil
war
vio
lenc
e in
Sie
rra
Leon
e on
loca
l liv
ing
stan
dard
s or
inst
itutio
ns
–S
ever
al m
easu
res
of p
oliti
cal m
obili
zatio
n / c
olle
ctiv
e ac
tion
are
som
ewha
t bet
ter i
n ar
eas
that
exp
erie
nced
m
ore
viol
ence
dur
ing
the
conf
lict
–60
% o
f 200
5 IR
CB
P re
spon
dent
s cl
aim
that
the
war
po
sitiv
ely
impa
cted
com
mun
ity c
oope
ratio
n–
Inst
itutio
ns, n
orm
s, a
nd o
rgan
izat
ions
forg
ed d
urin
g w
ar p
ersi
st in
to th
e po
stw
ar p
erio
d
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
9
Impl
icat
ions
•M
ore
spec
ulat
ivel
y: d
id th
e S
ierr
a Le
one
civi
l war
ge
nera
te n
ew –
and
poss
ibly
stro
nger
–lo
cal
inst
itutio
ns?
Loca
l gov
ernm
ents
?
•K
een
(200
5) c
laim
s th
e w
ar in
crea
sed
polit
ical
aw
aren
ess
and
mob
iliza
tion,
esp
ecia
lly fo
r you
ths
•Fe
rme
(200
1, p
. 228
): “[S
ierr
a Le
onea
ns] h
ave
som
etim
es tu
rned
[soc
ial i
nsta
bilit
y] in
to a
cre
ativ
e,
thou
gh v
iole
nt, o
ppor
tuni
ty to
refa
shio
n th
emse
lves
vis
-à-
vis
thei
r ow
n in
stitu
tions
”
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
10
Impl
icat
ions
•M
ore
spec
ulat
ivel
y: d
id th
e S
ierr
a Le
one
civi
l war
ge
nera
te n
ew –
and
poss
ibly
stro
nger
–lo
cal
inst
itutio
ns?
Loca
l gov
ernm
ents
?
•K
een
(200
5) c
laim
s th
e w
ar in
crea
sed
polit
ical
aw
aren
ess
and
mob
iliza
tion,
esp
ecia
lly fo
r you
ths
•Fe
rme
(200
1, p
. 228
): “[S
ierr
a Le
onea
ns] h
ave
som
etim
es tu
rned
[soc
ial i
nsta
bilit
y] in
to a
cre
ativ
e,
thou
gh v
iole
nt, o
ppor
tuni
ty to
refa
shio
n th
emse
lves
vis
-à-
vis
thei
r ow
n in
stitu
tions
”
•U
ncer
tain
ty o
ver t
he J
uly
2007
Pre
side
ntia
l ele
ctio
ns
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
11
Bot
swan
a: A
frica
’s s
ucce
ss s
tory
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
12
Bot
swan
a: A
frica
’s s
ucce
ss s
tory
•S
ub-S
ahar
an A
frica
has
had
neg
ativ
e av
erag
e ec
onom
ic
grow
th. B
otsw
ana
has
aver
aged
7.7
% p
er c
apita
ann
ual
grow
th s
ince
the
1960
s. P
er c
apita
inco
me
is c
urre
ntly
fo
ur ti
mes
the
Sub
-Sah
aran
Afri
can
aver
age.
Why
?
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
13
Bot
swan
a: A
frica
’s s
ucce
ss s
tory
•S
ub-S
ahar
an A
frica
has
had
neg
ativ
e av
erag
e ec
onom
ic
grow
th. B
otsw
ana
has
aver
aged
7.7
% p
er c
apita
ann
ual
grow
th s
ince
the
1960
s. P
er c
apita
inco
me
is c
urre
ntly
fo
ur ti
mes
the
Sub
-Sah
aran
Afri
can
aver
age.
Why
?
•In
196
5 th
e co
untry
had
onl
y tw
o se
cond
ary
scho
ols
and
100
seco
ndar
y sc
hool
gra
duat
es, a
nd 1
2 km
of p
aved
ro
ads.
The
cou
ntry
is tr
opic
al, l
andl
ocke
d, a
nd a
rid. I
t st
arte
d ou
t with
hig
h in
com
e in
equa
lity,
and
lots
of
natu
ral r
esou
rces
(dia
mon
ds, l
ike
Sie
rra
Leon
e).
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
14
Map
of A
frica
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
15
Bot
swan
a: H
isto
ry a
nd p
oliti
cs•
The
Tsw
ana
shar
e a
near
ly id
entic
al la
ngua
ge a
nd
hist
ory
with
nea
rby
Leso
tho
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
16
Map
of A
frica
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
17
Bot
swan
a: H
isto
ry a
nd p
oliti
cs•
The
Tsw
ana
shar
e a
near
ly id
entic
al la
ngua
ge a
nd
hist
ory
with
nea
rby
Leso
tho
•B
otsw
ana’
s po
litic
al u
nity
was
forg
ed in
war
fare
aga
inst
th
e Zu
lus
and
the
Boe
rs in
the
early
180
0s
•R
esis
ted
dire
ct ru
le b
y B
oers
, Cec
il R
hode
s
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
18
Bot
swan
a: H
isto
ry a
nd p
oliti
cs•
The
Tsw
ana
shar
e a
near
ly id
entic
al la
ngua
ge a
nd
hist
ory
with
nea
rby
Leso
tho
•B
otsw
ana’
s po
litic
al u
nity
was
forg
ed in
war
fare
aga
inst
th
e Zu
lus
and
the
Boe
rs in
the
early
180
0s
•R
esis
ted
dire
ct ru
le b
y B
oers
, Cec
il R
hode
s
•In
the
late
19t
h/ e
arly
20t
hce
ntur
ies,
Bot
swan
a w
as a
pr
otec
tora
te, a
lmos
t ent
irely
neg
lect
ed b
y th
e B
ritis
h.
Trad
ition
al p
oliti
cal a
utho
ritie
s w
ere
not c
o-op
ted
or
crus
hed
by th
e co
loni
zers
, “be
nign
neg
lect
”?
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
19
Ser
etse
Kha
ma’
sre
form
s•
The
stro
nges
t tra
ditio
nal c
hief
Ser
etse
Kha
ma
was
el
ecte
d P
resi
dent
upo
n in
depe
nden
ce in
196
2, a
s he
ad
of th
e B
otsw
ana
Dem
ocra
tic P
arty
(BD
P)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
20
Ser
etse
Kha
ma’
sre
form
s•
The
stro
nges
t tra
ditio
nal c
hief
Ser
etse
Kha
ma
was
el
ecte
d P
resi
dent
upo
n in
depe
nden
ce in
196
2, a
s he
ad
of th
e B
otsw
ana
Dem
ocra
tic P
arty
(BD
P)
•K
ham
aac
tivel
y st
reng
then
ed th
e ce
ntra
l gov
ernm
ent,
abol
ishi
ng th
e tra
ditio
nal r
ight
s of
Chi
efs
(incl
udin
g th
e rig
ht to
allo
cate
land
, and
to c
laim
min
eral
wea
lth in
thei
r la
nds)
, and
allo
wed
the
stat
e to
rem
ove
chie
fs. S
imila
r to
Tanz
ania
in th
is re
spec
t
•H
e w
as n
ot p
erso
nally
cor
rupt
, and
tole
rate
d op
posi
tion
grou
ps a
nd a
n in
depe
nden
t med
ia
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
21
Ser
etse
Kha
ma’
sre
form
s•
Kha
ma
adop
ted
agric
ultu
ral p
olic
ies
that
wer
e pr
o-ru
ral,
and
in p
artic
ular
pro
-cat
tle o
wne
rs, i
n co
ntra
st to
mos
t ot
her A
frica
n co
untri
es. H
e w
as p
ro-m
arke
t, pu
rsue
d co
nser
vativ
e m
acro
econ
omic
pol
icie
s, a
nd e
ncou
rage
d fo
reig
n in
vest
men
t in
min
eral
ext
ract
ion
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
22
Ser
etse
Kha
ma’
sre
form
s•
Kha
ma
adop
ted
agric
ultu
ral p
olic
ies
that
wer
e pr
o-ru
ral,
and
in p
artic
ular
pro
-cat
tle o
wne
rs, i
n co
ntra
st to
mos
t ot
her A
frica
n co
untri
es. H
e w
as p
ro-m
arke
t, pu
rsue
d co
nser
vativ
e m
acro
econ
omic
pol
icie
s, a
nd e
ncou
rage
d fo
reig
n in
vest
men
t in
min
eral
ext
ract
ion
•B
otsw
anan
publ
ic p
olic
y ha
s be
en c
once
rned
with
the
wel
fare
of r
ural
resi
dent
s.–
Cas
e in
poi
nt: t
he e
xten
sive
Dro
ught
Rel
ief P
rogr
am
(DR
P).
Up
to 6
0% o
f res
iden
ts re
ceiv
ed re
lief d
urin
g th
e se
vere
mid
-198
0s d
roug
ht
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
23
Why
did
Bot
swan
a su
ccee
d? A
JR’s
reas
ons
(1) R
epre
sent
ativ
e pr
e-co
loni
al in
stitu
tions
, with
lots
of
inst
itutio
nal c
heck
s/ba
lanc
es (e
.g.,
publ
ic a
ssem
blie
s)(2
) The
lim
ited
U.K
. col
onia
lism
left
thes
e ex
istin
g in
stitu
tions
inta
ct, a
nd la
rgel
y le
gitim
ate
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
24
Why
did
Bot
swan
a su
ccee
d? A
JR’s
reas
ons
(1) R
epre
sent
ativ
e pr
e-co
loni
al in
stitu
tions
, with
lots
of
inst
itutio
nal c
heck
s/ba
lanc
es (e
.g.,
publ
ic a
ssem
blie
s)(2
) The
lim
ited
U.K
. col
onia
lism
left
thes
e ex
istin
g in
stitu
tions
inta
ct, a
nd la
rgel
y le
gitim
ate
(3) R
ural
eco
nom
ic in
tere
sts
(esp
ecia
lly c
attle
ow
ners
) w
ere
polit
ical
ly p
ower
ful
pro-
agric
ultu
re p
olic
ies
(4) H
uge
diam
ond
and
othe
r min
eral
inco
me
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
25
Why
did
Bot
swan
a su
ccee
d? A
JR’s
reas
ons
(1) R
epre
sent
ativ
e pr
e-co
loni
al in
stitu
tions
, with
lots
of
inst
itutio
nal c
heck
s/ba
lanc
es (e
.g.,
publ
ic a
ssem
blie
s)(2
) The
lim
ited
U.K
. col
onia
lism
left
thes
e ex
istin
g in
stitu
tions
inta
ct, a
nd la
rgel
y le
gitim
ate
(3) R
ural
eco
nom
ic in
tere
sts
(esp
ecia
lly c
attle
ow
ners
) w
ere
polit
ical
ly p
ower
ful
pro-
agric
ultu
re p
olic
ies
(4) H
uge
diam
ond
and
othe
r min
eral
inco
me
(5) V
isio
nary
nat
ion-
build
ing
deci
sion
s by
pos
t-in
depe
nden
ce le
ader
s (e
spec
ially
Ser
etse
Kha
ma)
(6) H
eavy
invo
lvem
ent o
f the
sta
te in
the
econ
omy
(cen
tral
gove
rnm
ent e
xpen
ditu
re 4
0% o
f GD
P),
com
bine
d w
ith
prop
erty
righ
ts p
rote
ctio
n, e
ncou
rage
men
t of F
DI
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
26
Add
ition
al q
uest
ions
abo
ut B
otsw
ana
•W
hy d
id B
otsw
ana
succ
eed
and
Leso
tho
fail?
--Is
it a
ll ab
out g
ood
lead
ersh
ip?
(Kha
ma)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
27
Add
ition
al q
uest
ions
abo
ut B
otsw
ana
•W
hy d
id B
otsw
ana
succ
eed
and
Leso
tho
fail?
--Is
it a
ll ab
out g
ood
lead
ersh
ip?
(Kha
ma)
•W
as B
otsw
ana’
s co
llabo
ratio
n w
ith th
e A
parth
eid
regi
me
a ke
y to
thei
r suc
cess
?
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
28
Add
ition
al q
uest
ions
abo
ut B
otsw
ana
•W
hy d
id B
otsw
ana
succ
eed
and
Leso
tho
fail?
--Is
it a
ll ab
out g
ood
lead
ersh
ip?
(Kha
ma)
•W
as B
otsw
ana’
s co
llabo
ratio
n w
ith th
e A
parth
eid
regi
me
a ke
y to
thei
r suc
cess
?
•Is
it B
otsw
ana’
s et
hnic
hom
ogen
eity
?
•W
hat i
s th
e ke
yfa
ctor
?
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
29
•Fo
r nex
t tim
e: a
rticl
e on
Chi
na a
nd A
frica
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
30
Whi
tebo
ard
#1
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
31
Whi
tebo
ard
#2
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
32
Whi
tebo
ard
#3
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
33
Whi
tebo
ard
#4
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
34
Whi
tebo
ard
#5
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
35
Map
of A
frica
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
28
36
Map
of A
frica
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