Economics 160

Economics 160 Economics 160

Votey 2, Notes: pp. 30-18

Lecture 5

Professor Votey

Law Enforcement Effectiveness: Productivity

The Science of Decisionmaking The Science of Decisionmaking

Methodology:Methodology: The Economic ParadigmThe Economic ParadigmRecall 3 StepsRecall 3 Steps (Notes, pp 3,4)(Notes, pp 3,4)

1. Specification:1. Specification:

Specify the Alternative States of the WorldSpecify the Alternative States of the World

22. . Valuation:Valuation:

Establish a Value System, e.g. Prices Establish a Value System, e.g. Prices

3. Optimization:3. Optimization:

Picking the “Best” SolutionPicking the “Best” Solution

Profit Maximization, Cost MinimizationProfit Maximization, Cost Minimization

Costs

Offenses(Crime Level)

Costs to Victims (VC)

(CC)

Social Costs of Crime (SC)

OF*Minimum Social Cost of Crime

Minimizing the Net Social Costs of Crime:

An Application of Economic DecisionmakingThe Tool: Some Form of Cost/Benefit Analysis

Control CostsControl Costs

Notes, p. 4Notes, p. 4

Costs

Offenses(Crime Level)

Costs to Victims

(CC)

Social Costs of Crime (SC)

OF*Minimum Social Cost of Crime

Minimizing the Net Social Costs of Crime:An Application of Economic Decision-makingThe Tool: Some Form of Cost/Benefit Analysis

We referred to: E. J. Mishan, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Ch. 3,in REFERENCES (RBR)*

Control CostsControl Costs

VC

*Ed Mishan, an English economist is a well known figure to *Ed Mishan, an English economist is a well known figure to the older members of the Econ Department, having been the older members of the Econ Department, having been an academic visitor here on at least two occasions (the two an academic visitor here on at least two occasions (the two during my time here which began in Fall 1966). He is one during my time here which began in Fall 1966). He is one of the internationally known economists who played a role of the internationally known economists who played a role in developing the economic science behind the huge in developing the economic science behind the huge infrastructure investments made during the Great infrastructure investments made during the Great Depression that created such enormous projects as the Depression that created such enormous projects as the Hoover Dam on the Colorado River.Hoover Dam on the Colorado River.

That same science would form the basis for any public That same science would form the basis for any public projects today that might be undertaken to create jobs and projects today that might be undertaken to create jobs and repair U. S. infrastructure as has been recently proposed.repair U. S. infrastructure as has been recently proposed.

Since those days, there has been much criticism of such Since those days, there has been much criticism of such investments, mostly by individuals who believe that any investments, mostly by individuals who believe that any investments by society should be limited to the privateinvestments by society should be limited to the private

sector since they believe only markets can lead to efficient sector since they believe only markets can lead to efficient outcomes. Interestingly, the Hoover Dam, arguably the largest outcomes. Interestingly, the Hoover Dam, arguably the largest public project undertaken by any country up to that time, was public project undertaken by any country up to that time, was completed completed under budget and ahead of schedule.under budget and ahead of schedule.

There have been many criticisms of such fiscal policy There have been many criticisms of such fiscal policy stimulants as originally advocated by the British economist stimulants as originally advocated by the British economist John Maynard Keynes. They do take time to work and only John Maynard Keynes. They do take time to work and only seem to work markedly on a massive scale. seem to work markedly on a massive scale.

Our economy did not fully recover during the 1930’s, but Our economy did not fully recover during the 1930’s, but the policy was certainly vindicated by our participation in WW II, the policy was certainly vindicated by our participation in WW II, when we put 16,000,000 people to work in the military while when we put 16,000,000 people to work in the military while going from a third rate to the greatest military establishment in going from a third rate to the greatest military establishment in the world with a two ocean navy and an air force second to the world with a two ocean navy and an air force second to none, both of which we continued to maintain following the war, none, both of which we continued to maintain following the war, while simultaneously paying for the rebuilding of the economies while simultaneously paying for the rebuilding of the economies of both our allies and enemies with Marshall Plan Aid,of both our allies and enemies with Marshall Plan Aid, and while and while paying off our own debt that we undertook to fight the war.paying off our own debt that we undertook to fight the war.

Minimizing the Costs of CrimeMinimizing the Costs of Crime


Objective: Min SC = VC + CC

Notes, p 5Notes, p 5


Objective: Min SC = VC + CC

The Logic:

The minimum social cost of crime is the smallest sumWe could realize, of victim costs plus the costs of crime control.If we minimize the costs of a “BAD”, we have moreof our resources left to spend on “GOODS”.

CrimeGeneration

OFFENSES

Output

Crime Control(Social Defense) Input Output

DeterrenceDetentionRehabilitation(Retribution)

Input

Resources

Recall from Lecture 1 the circular flow diagram that represented the interacting system of Crime Generation and Control

Text Reference: Economics of Crime Control, Chapter 9 and in Notes, p13Notes, p13

Consider A Steel Mill – an example from heavy Consider A Steel Mill – an example from heavy industry industry Resources:Resources:

Raw Materials: Iron Ore, Coal, LimestoneRaw Materials: Iron Ore, Coal, Limestone Labor: Variety of SkillsLabor: Variety of Skills Capital: Blast Furnace, Oxygen FurnaceCapital: Blast Furnace, Oxygen Furnace

Rolling Mills, Plating Mills Rolling Mills, Plating Mills

Technology: Technology: Means of Linking InputsMeans of Linking Inputs

Output:Output: Iron, Finished SteelIron, Finished Steel

How does one make a Reasonable Analogy between a typical How does one make a Reasonable Analogy between a typical production process and the Criminal Justice System?production process and the Criminal Justice System?

Next: Conceiving of OutputsNext: Conceiving of Outputs

Economic Notions of Productivity

The Criminal Justice SystemThe Criminal Justice System

TheoryTheory 1. Basis for Defining/Identifying Outputs1. Basis for Defining/Identifying Outputs

A SchematicA Schematic 1. Functions1. Functions 2. Stages of Operation2. Stages of Operation 3. Operating Entities3. Operating Entities 2. Basis for Evaluating Effectiveness2. Basis for Evaluating Effectiveness

Empirical EvidenceEmpirical Evidence

Criminal Justice System:The Real World Process

InputOF

Law Enforcement POLICE FORCE

Stage 1 Function

Operating EntityProduces

ARRESTS Prosecution Stage 2

DACOMPLAINTS

Adjudication

COURTS Stage 3COMPLAINTS

Corrections or Punishment

JAILS,PRISON,PROBATION

CONVICTION (guilty)DISMISSAL (not guilty)

Stage 4

RELEASE(PAROLE)

INDICTMENTS

INPUTS/OUTPUTS

?

NotesNotes, p 14, Figure 2.2, p 14, Figure 2.2

How Good is the output analogy in cases of non-market decision making?

Consider other Public Service Industries:

Education - What is the output?Education - What is the output? Number of StudentsNumber of Students ? - ? - or are these inputsor are these inputs?? Number of Graduates?Number of Graduates?

Hospitals - What is the Output?Hospitals - What is the Output? Number of Patients ? Number of Patients ? Again, this is an inputAgain, this is an input Lives Saved? Lives Saved? For how long?For how long? What determines hospitals’ rankings?What determines hospitals’ rankings?

An Aside - about the pastAn Aside - about the past

Physical Outputs in a Command Physical Outputs in a Command Economy –Economy – How are they measured?How are they measured? A story from? George Karcz A story from? George Karcz Or maybe Doug MorganOr maybe Doug Morgan

About Light FixturesAbout Light Fixtures

What did we decide was the proper social objective with respect to CRIME?

Minimizing the Social Cost


What does this mean in terms of productivity?


What does this mean in terms of productivity?

Reducing Crime Numbers or Seriousness (or both)

Minimizing the Social Cost Minimizing the Social Cost

Recall: Social Cost Minimization implies:Recall: Social Cost Minimization implies: Min SC = VC + CC i.e., Victim Costs + Control CostsMin SC = VC + CC i.e., Victim Costs + Control Costs

Irrespective of the values we place on individual offenses, as Irrespective of the values we place on individual offenses, as long as they are positive,long as they are positive, Social Cost Minimization requiresSocial Cost Minimization requires Reducing CrimeReducing Crime Numbers or SeriousnessNumbers or Seriousness

NotesNotes, p.5, p.5


Recall: Social Cost Minimization implies:Recall: Social Cost Minimization implies: Min SC = VC + CC i.e., Victim Costs + Control CostsMin SC = VC + CC i.e., Victim Costs + Control Costs

Irrespective of the values we place on individual offenses, as Irrespective of the values we place on individual offenses, as long as they are positive,long as they are positive, Social Cost Minimization requiresSocial Cost Minimization requires Reducing Crime Numbers or Seriousness or Reducing Crime Numbers or Seriousness or Reducing Reducing Control CostsControl Costs


Recall: Social Cost Minimization impliesRecall: Social Cost Minimization implies:: Min SC = VC + CC i.e., Victim Costs + Control CostsMin SC = VC + CC i.e., Victim Costs + Control Costs

Irrespective of the values we place on individual offenses, as Irrespective of the values we place on individual offenses, as long as they are positive, long as they are positive, Social Cost Minimization requiresSocial Cost Minimization requires Reducing Crime Numbers or Seriousness or Reducing Control Reducing Crime Numbers or Seriousness or Reducing Control CostsCosts

Consider the Circular Flow ProcessConsider the Circular Flow Process: : (again)(again)

Minimizing the Social Cost Minimizing the Social Cost Irrespective of the values we place on individual Irrespective of the values we place on individual

offenses, as long as they are positiveoffenses, as long as they are positive,, Social Cost Social Cost Minimization requiresMinimization requires Reducing Crime Numbers or Reducing Crime Numbers or Seriousness (or control costs)Seriousness (or control costs)

Recall: Social Cost Minimization implies:Recall: Social Cost Minimization implies: Min SC = VC + CC i.e., Victim Costs + Control Min SC = VC + CC i.e., Victim Costs + Control

CostsCosts Consider the Circular Flow ProcessConsider the Circular Flow Process: : (again)(again)

NotesNotes, p. 5, p. 5

Minimizing the Social Cost Minimizing the Social Cost Recall: Social Cost Minimization implies:Recall: Social Cost Minimization implies:

Min SC = VC + CC i.e., Victim Costs + Control Min SC = VC + CC i.e., Victim Costs + Control CostsCosts

on individual offenses, as long as they are positive, on individual offenses, as long as they are positive, Social Cost Minimization requires Reducing Crime Social Cost Minimization requires Reducing Crime Numbers or Seriousness (or both)Numbers or Seriousness (or both)

Consider the Circular Flow ProcessConsider the Circular Flow Process: : (again) (again) Irrespective Irrespective of the values we place of the values we place

Victim Costs +

Looking at the Circular Flow Process, One observes that Arrests and Offenses seem to move togetherLooking at the Circular Flow Process, One observes that Arrests and Offenses seem to move together

Separating the EffectsSeparating the EffectsResort to the Economic Paradigm andResort to the Economic Paradigm andEconomic Decision TheoryEconomic Decision Theory

Appeal to the approach ofAppeal to the approach ofThe UtilitariansThe UtilitariansJeremy Bentham - the father of . . .Jeremy Bentham - the father of . . .

Modern Economic Decision TheoryModern Economic Decision TheoryEvaluating Results Based on Expected Net Evaluating Results Based on Expected Net

Benefits Benefits

What we are trying to do at this point? What we are trying to do at this point? Find out what works to control crime.Find out what works to control crime.

But we want to find out the BEST way,But we want to find out the BEST way,optimization, i.e. determining Best Policyoptimization, i.e. determining Best Policy

It is great to have a theoryIt is great to have a theoryIt is better to have a theory that we know works.It is better to have a theory that we know works.

With appropriate research a theoretical model With appropriate research a theoretical model becomes a policy modelbecomes a policy model

This work facilitates the implementation of the This work facilitates the implementation of the Economic Paradigm Economic Paradigm

Economic Decision Theory in a NutshellEconomic Decision Theory in a Nutshell

Expected Net Benefits (Expected Net Benefits (of any action):of any action):

Expected Net Benefits = Expected Benefits - Expected Net Benefits = Expected Benefits - Expected CostsExpected Costs

E(NB) = E(B) - E(C)E(NB) = E(B) - E(C) In terms of value:In terms of value:

the Value of the Expectation = the Value of the Expectation = $B x P(B) - $C x P(C)$B x P(B) - $C x P(C)

The Basis for:The Basis for:

The decision from the potential criminal’s point of view? The decision from the potential criminal’s point of view?

AndAnd The logical counter policy from Society’s point of view?The logical counter policy from Society’s point of view?

These are two sides of the same coinThese are two sides of the same coin

Working within the framework of the Criminal Justice System

Working within the framework of the Criminal Justice System

Bentham’s focus: “Pain” - the institutional counterpart:Bentham’s focus: “Pain” - the institutional counterpart: Punishment via the system of CorrectionsPunishment via the system of Corrections

Enlarging the Expectation: Increase the likelihood of Enlarging the Expectation: Increase the likelihood of painpain We call this combination of activities We call this combination of activities DeterrenceDeterrence

The Criminal Justice System: is involved at every The Criminal Justice System: is involved at every stagestage Raising the expected cost implies:Raising the expected cost implies:

$C x P(C) = P(Arrest) x P(Conv|Arrest) x $C x P(C) = P(Arrest) x P(Conv|Arrest) x P(Jail|Conv) x $JailP(Jail|Conv) x $Jail

Each Stage contributes to the reduction inEach Stage contributes to the reduction in CRIMECRIME

Criminal Justice SystemMeasures of Output

Criminal Justice SystemMeasures of Output

Quantity MeasuresQuantity Measures A. The number of ArrestsA. The number of Arrests

Made on basis of probable causeMade on basis of probable cause B. Arrest Ratio(a relative measure)B. Arrest Ratio(a relative measure)

= = ARAR = = Arrests / OffensesArrests / Offenses Was declining in 1960’s and ‘70’s for U.S. and CaliforniaWas declining in 1960’s and ‘70’s for U.S. and California

Q. Do Arrests deter crime?Q. Do Arrests deter crime? Sjoquist, Sjoquist, American Economic ReviewAmerican Economic Review (1973) – in (1973) – in

ReferencesReferences San DiegoSan Diego Problem: Arrests may not be best measureProblem: Arrests may not be best measure

Criminal Justice SystemMeasures of Output (-cont.)


Quality MeasuresQuality Measures A. Clearances (an absolute measure) A. Clearances (an absolute measure)

crimes cleared by arrest = crimes cleared by arrest = CLCL The last burglar - an exampleThe last burglar - an example

B. Clearance Ratio (a relative measure)B. Clearance Ratio (a relative measure) = = CRCR = = Clearances / OffensesClearances / Offenses Problems with the Clearance RatioProblems with the Clearance Ratio

System QualitySystem Quality A. Convictions (an absolute measure)A. Convictions (an absolute measure)

Outcome determined in a court of lawOutcome determined in a court of law



B. B. Conviction Ratio (a relative measure)Conviction Ratio (a relative measure) CR =CR = Felony Convictions / OffensesFelony Convictions / Offenses (sometimes (sometimes

CR)CR) Other MeasuresOther Measures

A. Police RatioA. Police Ratio = Complaints (filed in courts) = Complaints (filed in courts) // Offenses Offenses measures combined quality of Police & DA effortsmeasures combined quality of Police & DA efforts

B. Complaints RatioB. Complaints Ratio = Complaints (filed w= Complaints (filed w//DA) DA) // Arrests Arrests measures quality of Police efforts measures quality of Police efforts byby DA DA

Output Measures Compared for Homicide in California

Output Measures Compared for Homicide in California

What was happening to felony offense rates in California and the U. S. ?

What was happening to felony offense rates in California and the U. S. ?

Text, p 65

The Decline of Criminal Justice EffectivenessThe Decline of Criminal Justice Effectiveness

The Effect of Increasing Expenditures for Law Enforcement in California and the U. S.The Effect of Increasing Expenditures for Law Enforcement in California and the U. S.

How Do We Use Output Measures to Evaluate the System? Economic Production TheoryHow Do We Use Output Measures to Evaluate the System? Economic Production Theory

Case of:Constant Returnsto ScaleFixed Proportions

Output

Inputs

Notes, Fig.2.3, p.16

Economic Production Theory Applied to Law Enforcement


Case of:Varying Proportions

CL

L

Production: CL = f( OF, L)

OFFENSES(load on the System)

RESOURCES(labor)

CL

Assumes the loadon the System(offenses) is heldfixed

What if we hold Resources Fixed and Increase Offenses?

NotesNotes, Fig. 2.5, p 17, Fig. 2.5, p 17

An example of Diminishing ReturnsAn example of Diminishing Returns




CL

OF


RESOURCES(labor)

CL

Assumes SystemResources are heldfixed while offensesvary


Notes, Fig. 2.5, p.17




CL

OF


RESOURCES(labor)

CL

Assumes SystemResources are heldfixed while offensesvary


So much for Productivity, What does this imply aboutPolice Effectiveness?

Determining Police EffectivenessDetermining Police Effectiveness

CL

OF0 OF1

CL1

ANotes FigNotes Fig. 2.6, p.17. 2.6, p.17


CL

OF0 OF1

CL1

A

How do we measure Police Effectiveness?

As Slope of 0A = tan = OF to A = CL1

0 to OF1 OF1

Notes FigNotes Fig. . 2.6, 2.6, p.17p.17


CL

OF0 OF1

CL1

A

How do we measure Police Effectiveness?

As Slope of 0A = tan = OF1 A = CL1

0 OF1 OF1

Does anyonerecall what this is?

Notes FigNotes Fig. 2.6, . 2.6, p.17p.17


CL

OF0 OF1

CL1

A

tan = OF1 A = CL1 = CR1 The CLEARANCE RATIO 0 OF1 OF1

Notes FigNotes Fig. 2.6, . 2.6, p.17p.17

To plot the Clearance Ratio for various Offense Levels To plot the Clearance Ratio for various Offense Levels

CL

OF0 OF1

CL1

A

BCL2

OF2

Notes FigNotes Fig. 2.6, p.17. 2.6, p.17

To plot the Clearance Ratio for various Offense Levels To plot the Clearance Ratio for various Offense Levels

CL

OF0 OF1

CL1

A

BCL2

OF2

Plot points A and B in space showing the ClearanceRatio relative to Offense levels

Notes FigNotes Fig. 2.6, p.17. 2.6, p.17

Plotting points A and B in CR - OF space Plotting points A and B in CR - OF space

CR

OF0 OF1

CR1

A

BCR2

OF2

Note that CR1 = CL1 > CR2 = CL2

OF1 OF2

and

line AB is drawn holding L constant

(CR,OF|L0)

What happens to Police Effectiveness with an increase in Police Resources?

CR

OF0 OF1

CR1

A

BCR2

OF2

(CR,OF|L0)

The change in Police Effectiveness with an increase in Police Resources, holding Offense levels constant

(CR,OF|L1)

Higher Effectiveness, Effect of New level of Police Resources

We can show this in terms of alternative levels of Resources

CR

0

Police Effectiveness in terms of alternative levels of Resources

L

Curves illustrated assumeEconomic Efficiency, i.e.,that Resources are beingused efficiently.

Notes, Fig. 2.8, p18 What if they are not ?

Offenses are being Offenses are being held constantheld constant

What if Police are not efficient, but simply “satisficing”, i.e., just working sufficiently hard

to maintain Clearance Ratios?



CL

OF

A

B

We will not observe diminishingreturns since the police are not working to their limit to begin with.





CL

OF

A

B


CR

OF

A BPerformancestandards appear tobe maintained, sinceClearance Ratiosare maintained





CL

OF

A

B


CR

OF

A BPerformancestandards appear tobe maintained, sinceClearance Ratiosare maintained

What would thisimply in Economic

terms ?

Depicting Police Manpower Inefficiency Depicting Police Manpower Inefficiency

CRefficient production

observed output levelif police only work tomaintain the ClearanceRatio

LL


CR

L

efficient production


L1 L2

slack

As manpower is increasedslack increases

If this were the true picture, how could we tell ?, but output level, but output level doesn’t risedoesn’t rise


CR

L

efficient production


L1 L2

slack

slack increases as manpower increases

There would be no statistical relationship between Police Resources and the Clearance Ratio.

Looking at the Empirical Evidence:Looking at the Real World

Looking at the Empirical Evidence:Looking at the Real World

A. Acquire DataA. Acquire Data 1. Outputs: 1. Outputs: CL, CRCL, CR 2. Inputs: 2. Inputs:

Resources: Resources: EMP, OTE, LEMP, OTE, L Case Load: Case Load: OFOF Technological Change: systematic changes over timeTechnological Change: systematic changes over time

not related to inputs not related to inputs

B. Work Out Theoretical Statistical ModelsB. Work Out Theoretical Statistical Models 1. Productivity: CL = f( OF, EMP, OTE, t)1. Productivity: CL = f( OF, EMP, OTE, t) 2. Effectiveness: CR = f( OF, EMP, OTE, t)2. Effectiveness: CR = f( OF, EMP, OTE, t) 3. and : CR = f( OF, L ) with other data3. and : CR = f( OF, L ) with other data

Based on Theory, what do we expect to find ?

SwitchingSwitching

Notice that, at this point, I have Notice that, at this point, I have switched fromswitched from discussing the discussing the theorytheory of what we have studied to of what we have studied to moving toward the testing of our theoretical model. moving toward the testing of our theoretical model.

Recall the distinction made in the introduction to the Recall the distinction made in the introduction to the course between Positive and Normative economics.course between Positive and Normative economics.

We are moving into the realm ofWe are moving into the realm of Positive Positive Economics – determining how the real world of Economics – determining how the real world of crime and justice workscrime and justice works

Such work has been the focus of much of the research of Such work has been the focus of much of the research of Professor Phillips and myself. Professor Phillips and myself.

A worthy less technical exercise in positive economics:A worthy less technical exercise in positive economics: FreakonomicsFreakonomics, , is is by Steven Levittby Steven Levitt, , who describes himself who describes himself as a “rogue economist.” Some of it is about crime. It as a “rogue economist.” Some of it is about crime. It provides an easy description of the logic behind his work provides an easy description of the logic behind his work and ours.and ours.

Throughout the course, we shift between explaining the Throughout the course, we shift between explaining the theory behind our analysis, positive economics – testing theory behind our analysis, positive economics – testing the theory, and normative economics – the discussion of the theory, and normative economics – the discussion of what this all implies for sound public policy.what this all implies for sound public policy.

Next, the results of our testing of production theory as it Next, the results of our testing of production theory as it relates to crime and justice.relates to crime and justice.

Expected Outcomes from statistical evaluation:Economic Theory Would Predict

Expected Outcomes from statistical evaluation:Economic Theory Would Predict

CR / OF < 0 CR / L > 0 CR / t > 0 (if Tech

CR CR CR

Varying: OF|L,t Varying: L|OF,t Varying t|OF,L

t2

t1

L1 L2

The question we would hope to be able to answer by looking at real world data is whether these expectations are borne out.

For the answer one should refer to the text, The Economics of Crime Control, Chapter 9 For the answer one should refer to the text, The Economics of Crime Control, Chapter 9

the statistical form used for estimation:the statistical form used for estimation:

CR = k eCR = k ett OF OF EMPEMPOTEOTE the Cobb-Douglas Production Function, fromthe Cobb-Douglas Production Function, from

Paul Douglas, ”Are there Laws of Production”, Paul Douglas, ”Are there Laws of Production”, American American Economic Review Economic Review (1939)(1939)

1122are elasticitiesare elasticities

= = % % CR CR

1% 1% OFOF

For the answer one should refer to the text, The Economics of Crime Control, Chapter 9






= = % % CR CR

= = % % CRCR

1% 1% OF 1% OF 1% EMPEMP







= = % % CR CR

= = % % CR _CR _ = = % % CR__CR__

1% 1% OF 1% OF 1% EMP 1% EMP 1% OTEOTE







= = % % CR CR

= = % % CR CR = = % % CR_CR_

1% 1% OF 1% OF 1% EMP 1% EMP 1% OTEOTE

= = rate of growth of output, independent of OTE, EMP, OFrate of growth of output, independent of OTE, EMP, OF

Empirical Results for 4 Felony Crimes: Burglary, Larceny(Theft), Auto Theft, RobberyEmpirical Results for 4 Felony Crimes: Burglary, Larceny(Theft), Auto Theft, Robbery


Parameter Variable Prediction Estimate Range


Parameter Variable Prediction Estimate RangeOF < 0 - .37 to -.88


Parameter Variable Prediction Estimate RangeOF < 0 - .37 to -.881 EMP > 0 NS to .72


Parameter Variable Prediction Estimate RangeOF < 0 - .37 to -.881 EMP > 0 NS to .722 OTE > 0 .13 to .30



Time > 0 NS



1 EMP > 0 NS to .722 OTE > 0 .13 to .30

Time > 0 NS

NS = Not statistically different from zero



1 EMP > 0 NS to .722 OTE > 0 .13 to .30

Time > 0 NS

NS = Not statistically different from zeroNote: The formulations estimated for each of the four offenses produced estimates of % of “explained” variance (R2) ranging from 78 to 86.



Time > 0 NS

NS = Not statistically different from zeroNote: The formulations estimated for each of the four offenses produced estimates of % of “explained” variance (R2) ranging from 78 to 86.

These results can be displayed graphically as well.

Law Enforcement Effectiveness Estimates for the U. S.,1952-1968

Law Enforcement Effectiveness Estimates for the U. S.,1952-1968

Text, p. 93Text, p. 93

EstimationEstimation ForecastForecast

Patterns for the Clearance Ratio and Offense Rates for Robbery in Comparison with Expenditures for Law Enforcement for the United States, 1952 - 1967.

Patterns for the Clearance Ratio and Offense Rates for Robbery in Comparison with Expenditures for Law Enforcement for the United States, 1952 - 1967.

Text, p.93Text, p.93

Early Trend in Law Early Trend in Law EnforcementEnforcementExpendituresExpenditures

Recall the More Recent patterns of Offense Rates for California and the U. S.

Recall the More Recent patterns of Offense Rates for California and the U. S.

-and the Levels of Police Protection in Place, Relativeto Overall Offense Rates, over the same period-and the Levels of Police Protection in Place, Relativeto Overall Offense Rates, over the same period

20082008

Ideas to RememberIdeas to Remember

The Economic ParadigmThe Economic Paradigm ( (3 steps3 steps)) The objective in dealing with crimeThe objective in dealing with crime

Minimizing the Social Cost of CrimeMinimizing the Social Cost of Crime

Jeremy BenthamJeremy Bentham Who was he? What did he do?Who was he? What did he do?

Economic Production TheoryEconomic Production Theory How does it apply to the analysis of crime?How does it apply to the analysis of crime?

The empirical evidenceThe empirical evidence What does it tell us?What does it tell us?

Professor VoteyProfessor Votey

Jobs and Crime:Jobs and Crime:Youth and Women Youth and Women

NotesNotes, Votey 3, p. 31, Votey 3, p. 31

Economics 160

Documents

costs of crimeminimizing

costs of crimeobjective

costs of crime control

net social costs of

victim costs

economic science

economic paradigmrecall

costbenefit analysis