Economic – Financial report 2011 Compiled by Date analysis and Editorial division – CafeF Address: Floor 18, VTC Online building, 18 Tam Trinh, Hai Ba Trung, Ha Noi Tel: 04 – 39743410. Ext: 295 Fax: 04 – 39744082 Email: [email protected]Golden sponsor Briefing Global economy 1 U.S and Europe suffered from heavy losses on public debt crisis Governments published new economic stimulus package Natural disasters caused severe damages Commodity price reached a peak then plunged Domestic economy 3 Net import considerably fell thanks to export FDI, ODA decreased, disbursement rose Government processed revision upon big departments, economic groups Merge of 3 banks SCB – FCB and VNT Bank Gold price rose by VND 7mil/oz, enlarging the gap between domestic and global level to VND 3-5mil/oz. Stock market 8 VN – Index fell by 27.46%, HNX – Index 48.6% to lowest ever MoF officially issued Circular 183 on open funds Net buying of foreign investors hit 4 year lowest, out floor trading gained attention Revenue decreased, expense rocketed Real estate market 12 Real estate in Ha Noi strongly fell FDI on real estate plunged Government approved of Ha Noi’s general planning Real estate is categorized as non - manufacturing Stock date updated 15 Excluding BVH, MSN, VIC and VNM, VN – Index at 12/30/2011 hit 203.9, P/E and P/B on HOSE stayed at 6.25 and 1.31 Outstanding real estate projects 18 TOP 100 richest people on stock market 20 Cafef.vn – Finance and stock information portal
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Economic –
Financial report
2011
Compiled by Date analysis and Editorial division – CafeF
Address: Floor 18, VTC Online building, 18 Tam Trinh, Hai Ba Trung, Ha Noi
tremendously affected real estate market as this is
main funding source for projects, leading to great
plunge in price and supply – demand imbalance.
Approving of Ha Noi’s general plan: On
07/27/2011, Prime Minister approved of General
Planning for Ha Noi 2030 and vision 2050.
Accordingly, national administrative – political
center will be moved to My Dinh and West Lake.
No change is made towards Departments at Ba
Vi…Also, central urban areas from belt IV to inner
parts are recognized as advanced political, cultural,
service, health and educational centre nationwide.
Besides, there are 5 satellite urban areas including
Hoa Lac, Son Tay, Xuan Mai, Phu Xuyen – Phu
Minh, Soc Son and eco areas. Specially, there are
green corridors between centre and satellites.
According to specialists’ estimation, USD 300 bil,
even 400 is needed to process this planning which
is about 4 year national GDP.
Categorizing real estate into non –
manufacturing sector: In Nov, SBV released
credit institutions from non – manufacturing sector
except for 4 real estate groups. Forwardingly,
Prime Minister issued Directive 2196 partially on
widening credit margin for real estate loans in
terms of construction of social houses, lending for
new houses for people in real needs… This
directive somehow lightened a way out for real
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Economic – Financial report 2011
estate firms and banks, however, it takes time to
evaluate effects market.
Rescuing real estate: A short while after SBV’s
issuance of Document 8844, Prime Minister
issued Directive 2196/CT-TTg on enhancing real
estate market management, clearly signaling
about loosening credit margin towards this sector.
Prime Minister required SBV to “ conduct,
coordinate with Ministry of Construction and local
authorities in revising, maintaining loans towards
projects to be completed and express adequate
capability to recall capital in 2012”.
REAL ESTATE
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Economic – Financial report 2011
1. Market overview
Appendix 1: Stock data 2011
Market scale HOSE HNX Upcom
Index 351.6 (-27.5%)
58.7(-48.6%)
33.8 (-25.3%)
- excluding BVH, VIC, MSN,VNM 203.9
Newly listed figure 305 393 131
- newly listed in December 30 29 32
Capitalization (VND bil) 454,563 88,131 22,731
% possessed by foreign investors 15.3% 9.2% 1.9%
P/E 7.90 7.64 _
P/B 1.69 0.99 _
- excluding BVH, VIC, MSN, VNM
P/E 6.26 _ _
P/B 1.31 _ _
(*) Data updated to 12/31/2011
Stock and money supply, demand in 2011
Dividends paid in cash (VND bil) 29,942
- December separately 2,715
Issuance for capital raise (VND bil) 15,061
- December separately 1,348
Stocks gained on additional issuance 2,988,119,396
- December separately 174,572,225
No of successfully bid stocks 166,310,911
Sector Change (+/- %)
P/E P/B Roon left
Cap rate
Technology -30.8% 3.4 0.9 71.0% 5.4%
Industry 31.2% 10.1 2.3 31.8% 10.9%
Oil -31.1% 6.1 0.7 75.2% 4.5%
Public service -12.9% 9.5 3.1 51.9% 47.5%
Consumption service -9.0% 6.6 1.2 44.3% 1.4%
Consumption goods -45.3% 7.7 0.6 78.8% 2.4%
Finance -39.1% 6.4 1.0 76.3% 4.7%
Fundamental materials -42.8% 7.8 0.9 78.9% 18.9%
Healthcare -19.6% 5.6 0.8 79.1% 1.6%
Closing 2011, all 3 indexes strongly
climbed down, significantly HNX –
Index with 50%. There were only 91
newly listed enterprises (33%
against 2010).
Excluding BVH, MSN, VIC and
VNM, VN-Index at 12/30/2011 was
recorded at 203.9, P/E and P/B on
HOSE hit 6.25 and 1.31.
Sector figure also favored downward
trend, averaging 30% of prior year.
Industry and Real estate &
construction remarked outstanding
decreases by 45.3 and 42.8%.
Consumption goods remained
upward trend with 3.2% as two highest
proportioned stocks (VNM and VCF)
strongly rose in 2011.
While dividends paid in cash reached
approximately VND 30 thousand bil,
gains on stock issuance only hit VND 15
thousand bil.
Accounting for 2.23bil newly listed shares
and shares through capital raise as well
as successfully bid figure, total stock
supply in 2011 was marked at VND
5.4bil.
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Economic – Financial report 2011
2. Stock price
HOSE
Code % rise Average trading volume
Code % fall Average trading volume
VCF (*) 82.0% 16,522 SBS -90.6% 100,815
VTF 59.9% 2,315 VES -90.1% 30,048
GIL 57.9% 25,521 KSA -89.3% 111,738
AGD 55.5% 17,725 HQC -87.8% 504,074
VNM 53.2% 77,704 BGM (*) -86.3% 149,375
MCP 47.1% 6,912 NVT -86.3% 257,905
LCM (*) 44.4% 44,636 VKP -83.0% 25,213
NSC 35.5% 6,186 STT (*) -83.0% 16,932
APC 30.6% 54,419 BAS -82.5% 13,347
PNJ 26.2% 127,493 KSH -81.1% 21,596
(*) Newly listed in 2011
HNX
Code % rise Average trading volume
Code % fall Average trading volume
SVN (*) 135.8% 12,791 SDU -87.8% 41,533
KTS 90.1% 968 SME -87.6% 86,367
CVN 63.1% 32,508 NHA -84.3% 16,320
HTB 62.7% 3,628 ORS -84.3% 186,339
FLC (*) 60.8% 67,055 V11 -84.0% 16,420
SDG 48.3% 2,143 SHN -83.8% 1,134,006
IDV 42.0% 820 SSS -83.8% 7,395
DNP 35.5% 19,372 APS -83.7% 91,536
CTB 34.9% 227 TIG -83.5% 83,348
DHT 28.9% 8,013 SJM -83.5% 16,594
(*)Newly listed in 2011
To last trading day on HOSE (12/31), VPL
(Vinpearl) experienced biggest rise by 91%.
However, due to its listing cancellation for
merging with VIC, VCF (Vinacafe Bien Hoa)
replaced with 82%.
Opposite trend recognized SBS of Sacombank
securities JSC with a 90.6% decrease. In
December, SBS’s price fluctuated around VND
3,000/share
VNM – biggest market cap stock in the whole
market (updated to 12/30/2011) – remained one
of strongest rise with 53.2
Similar to HOSE, HNX recorded its strongest
rise in 2011 with a newly listed enterprise –
SVN (Solavina) of 136% against its initial
level on 07/26. KTS (Kon Tum sugar) hit the
2nd with exceptional 266.7% separately in
December
30 shares showed an over 80% decrease
during the year. Many remained low liquidity
with averagely hundred shares/ session.
(**) Including Upcom, strongest rise and fall
recognized in 2011 is accounted to GDW
(Gia Dinh water JSC – rose by 305%) and
SGS (Sai Gon sea transport JSC – fell by
93.6%)
HOSE HNX
Blue: Index value; Red: Trading volume
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3. Foreign trading scale
Biggest buying/selling in 2011 (VND bil)
Code Floor Net
buying Code Floor
Net selling
VNM HSX 951.3 VIC HSX -1,819.5
FPT HSX 819.4 STB HSX -1,017.4
CTG HSX 577.0 CTD HSX -214.3
KDC HSX 404.4 HAG HSX -212.2
VCB HSX 354.0 CII HSX -122.1
PVD HSX 239.4 TTP HSX -86.5
PNJ HSX 194.5 SAM HSX -55.6
VCG HNX 165.8 HVG HSX -53.8
REE HSX 163.8 ITA HSX -48.1
ITC HSX 154.4 NTL HSX -44.7
MBB HSX 142.5 HSG HSX -40.6
PVS HNX 122.1 CSM HSX -38.4
SSI HSX 111.9 PPC HSX -35.4
DHG HSX 102.4 TDH HSX -33.4
VND HNX 98.1 ABT HSX -33.0
(*) đv: tỷ đồng
VNM, FPT and CTG located themselves as top 3
largest net buying in latter half of 2011 with VND
951.3bil, 819.4bil, 577bil respectively.
VIC incessantly remarked biggest net selling value
in 2011. STB unexpectedly experienced a VND
900bil net selling in quarter IV, forwarding exceeded
VIC to hit 2nd
position.
2011 witnessed 3 exceptional sessions on 2 floors with net
buying of 5 mil VND on 02/08 and 6.6mil VNM on 06/27 and
net selling of 13mil VIC and STB on 12/21.
In 4 year period, net buying and selling value in 2011
remained lowest with VND 1,811bil (65% of HSX) – 11.2%
against prior year.
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Economic – Financial report 2011
No
Project Investor Value Area Location Progress Description
1 Times City Vingroup VND
5,800
bil
364,500
m2
458 Minh Khai –
Hai Ba Trung – Ha
Noi
Infrastructure and
crude construction
The project includes 9 slots – 7 for houses and
supporting services; 2 for Vinmedicare international
hotel. Buildings are planned to be of 22-35 floors.
2 Vincom
Village
Vingroup VND
10,000
bil
183.5 ha Phuc Loi, Phuc
Dong, Viet Hung,
Gia Thuy, Long
Bien, HN
Villa transfer The project includes 1000 villas on 38.2ha, traffic 50ha,
trees and water areas 60ha, Vincom Centre trade
centre 45,000 m2, Vinmec2 hospital and offices,
apartments area,…
3 Mandarin
Garden
Golden Gain
Viet Nam
25,886
m2
Dong Nam, Tran
Duy Hung, Ha Noi
7th floor
construction
The project includes 4 apartment buildings of 25-29
floors with total 1008 luxury houses and trade centre
additionally,…
4 Dream City Viet Han VND
5,800bil
2,069.28
ha
Tam Nong, Phu
Tho
Construction area for trade centre, offices, houses is
52.31ha – 2.53%. Resident area is 341.66ha – 16.51%.
Green park area is 1,092.54ha – 52.97%,…
6 Son river Long Bien real
estate
company
VND
4,575
bil
117 ha Hoa Binh, Giang
Dien, Trang Bom,
Dong Nai
Infrastructure
construction
Construction area is 56.5ha including single villas,
adjacent apartments and dormitories. Public area is
9.89ha, 29.2ha is for traffic, 15.22ha for green park –
sport area, 6.19ha for river, lakes.
7 The Empire Thanh Do
Group
VND
10,000
51.5 ha Truong Sa street,
Hoa Hai ward, Ngu
Hanh Son district,
Infrastructure
construction.
Planned
The project includes 2 areas, district 1 lies on the seaside of Truong Sa street of 30ha of seaside villas, hotels, apartments,… district 2 of 21.5ha of street
Appendix 2: Outstanding real estate projects
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Economic – Financial report 2011
bil Da Nang completion in
2018.
houses, villas, hotels,…
Commencement was on 07/24/2011. As planned,
streets for walk, houses and infrastructure of district 2
will be completed in quarter 2/2013; villas in district 1
and basic foundation of villas in district 2 in quarter
2/2014; hotels and complex buildings in quarter 4/2016.
8 Phuoc An
urban area
HUD group VND
6,000
150 ha Nhon Trach, Dong
Nai
Under construction The project is located on two sides of Nhon Trach new
city’s traffic axis, with front side on street 1 of 53m wide,
adjacent to Administrative centre, 25km away from
HCM through 25C street. Housing area is 66ha with 512
single villas, 836 duplex villas, over 1000 adjacent ones.
Construction intensity 44%.
9 IJC
Commercia
l Town
Becamex IJC VND
450bil
43,923
m2
New city Binh
Duong
Deployment The project includes 300 street houses with 1
basement, 2 floors and upper yard. Each is on 125 m2 –
145 m2, constructing area 381.5 m2
.
10 Golden
Hills
Trung Nam
Group
USD
1.67bil
400ha Hoa Hiep Nam,
Hoa Hiep Bac, Hoa
Lien, Hoa Vang
villages, Lien Chieu
district, Da Nang
province
Traffic
infrastructure
progress
Traffic system in Golden Hills constitute 25.5% with
internal, inter, main and separate lanes of 7.5m; 11.5m;
13.5m; 15.5m; 30m; 33m wide respectively. Trung Nam
is currently accelerating construction of area A’s internal
lanes.
11 UNI Town Becamex -TDC VND
1,300
bil
54,503
m2
Center of Binh
Duong new urban
zone
Under construction There are 285 street houses with various areas: 105,
108, 110, 131 and 148 m2, opening at VND
4.8bil/apartment.
Disclaimer: The information herein is collected and edited by CafeF from public sources believed to be reliable, proved to be valuable for
investors. However, we take no charge in any risk exposed to investors on using this report.