1 1 Economic & Steel Market Development in Japan 70 th OECD Steel Committee Paris May 12-13, 2011 The Japan Iron and Steel Federation 1. Macro-economic Overview 2. Steel Demand and Supply v Major Steel-Consuming Industries v Steel Production v Steel Exports & Imports 3. The Earthquake and Its Effects 2
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Economic & Steel Market Development in Japan1 1 Economic & Steel Market Development in Japan 70th OECD Steel Committee Paris May 12-13, 2011 The Japan Iron and Steel Federation v 1.
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Economic & Steel Market Development
in Japan
70th OECD Steel Committee
Paris
May 12-13, 2011
The Japan Iron and Steel Federation
1. Macro-economic Overview
2. Steel Demand and Supply
v Major Steel-Consuming Industries
v Steel Production
v Steel Exports & Imports
3. The Earthquake and Its Effects
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3 1. Macro-economic Overview Japanese economy declined in Q4 ‘10
for the first time since Q3 ‘09.
However, there had been signs of
improvement since the beginning of this
year -- until 11 March.
The earthquake has given a drastic
impact on the Japanese economy.
Effects are especially being felt in:
Disruption of supply chain --
inflicting a sharp drop in the auto
and electrical appliance
manufacturing;
Power shortage by disaster of
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power
plant; and,
A decline in consumer
confidence.
Research institutions revised their
economic forecasts for ‘11 downwardly
after the quake, while expecting
reconstruction-related rebound in ‘12.
Fig.1 GDP Growth Rate (%)
▲ 6▲ 5▲ 4▲ 3▲ 2▲ 1
01234
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2007 2008 2009 2010
PrivateConsumption PrivateResidentialInvestment
Private Non-Resi.Investment PublicInvestment
Net Exports PrivateInventory
GDP(expenditure approach)
Source: Cabinet Office
Chart 2. 13 Institutes' Predictions of Real GDP Growth Rateas of Apr. 27, 2011 (Unit: %)
preEQ
postEQ
preEQ
postEQ
FY2011
FY2012
Japan Center for Economic Research 1.5 ▲ 0.1 1.8 2.4 ▲ 1.6 0.6
Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. 1.5 0.5 1.7 2.4 ▲ 1.0 0.7
Mizuho Research Institute 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.2 ▲ 0.3 0.4