economic report president - whitehouse.gov · partisanship roll back the progress we’ve achieved on so many fronts. I want to work with the Congress to invest in middle ‑class

transmitted to the congressfebruary 2015

together withthe annual report

of thecouncil of economic advisers

e c o n o m i cr e p o r t

o f t h e

p r e s i d e n t

iii

____________*For a detailed table of contents of the Council’s Report, see page 11.

C O N T E N T S

ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS* . . . 7

CHAPTER 1. MIDDLE-CLASS ECONOMICS: THE ROLE OF PRODUCTIVITY, INEQUALITY, AND PARTICIPATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

CHAPTER 2. THE YEAR IN REVIEW AND THE YEARS AHEAD . . . 41

CHAPTER 3. ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN THE U.S. LABOR MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

CHAPTER 4. THE ECONOMICS OF FAMILY-FRIENDLY WORKPLACE POLICIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

CHAPTER 5. BUSINESS TAX REFORM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

CHAPTER 6. THE ENERGY REVOLUTION: ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND THE FOUNDATION FOR A LOW-CARBON ENERGY FUTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241

CHAPTER 7. THE UNITED STATES IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY . . 291

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331

APPENDIX A. REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365

APPENDIX B. STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME, EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379

economic reportof the

president

Economic Report of the President | 3

To the Congress of the United States:

As I send you this Economic Report of the President, the United States has just concluded a breakthrough year. In 2014, our economy added jobs at the fastest pace since the 1990s. The unemployment rate plunged to its lowest point in over 6 years, far faster than economists predicted. Ten million Americans gained the security of health coverage. And we continued to cut our dependence on foreign oil and invest in renewable energy, making us number one in the world in oil, gas, and wind power.

These achievements took place against a backdrop of longer‑term economic strength. Since the crisis, we’ve seen our deficits cut by two‑thirds, our stock market double, and health care inflation at its lowest rate in 50 years. The housing market is rebounding. Manufacturers are adding jobs. More Americans are finishing college than ever before.

Now America is poised for another good year, as long as Washington works to keep this progress going. But even as the economic recovery is touching more lives, we need to do more to restore the link between hard work and opportunity for every American. That’s the idea behind middle‑class economics—the simple fact that our country does best when everyone has a fair shot, does their fair share, and plays by the same set of rules.

Over the course of this year, I will continue to put forward ideas to make that fundamental value a reality—not just so that more Americans can share in their country’s success, but so that more Americans can contribute to their country’s success. At this moment when our economy is growing and creating jobs, we’ve got to work twice as hard, especially

economic report of the president

4 | Economic Report of the President

in Washington, to build on our momentum. And I will not let politics or partisanship roll back the progress we’ve achieved on so many fronts.

I want to work with the Congress to invest in middle‑class economics in three key ways.

First, let’s help working families achieve greater security in a world of constant change. That means giving Americans the peace of mind that comes with knowing they’ll be able to afford childcare, college, health care, a home, and retirement.

At a time when having both parents work is an economic necessity for many families, high‑quality, affordable childcare isn’t a nice‑to‑have—it’s a must‑have. That’s why I’ve proposed tripling the maximum child tax credit to $3,000 per child per year, and creating more slots in childcare programs nationwide.

Meanwhile, we’re the only advanced country in the world that doesn’t guarantee workers either paid sick leave or paid maternity leave. Let’s help more States adopt paid leave laws and put it to a vote in Washington too, because no parent should ever have to choose between earning a paycheck and taking care of a sick child.

Of course, nothing helps families make ends meet like raising wages. We still need to pass a law that guarantees women equal pay for equal work. We still need to make sure employees get the overtime they’ve earned. We still have a minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. That means minimum‑wage workers are actually earning 20 percent less than they were when President Reagan was in office. It’s time to give some of America’s hardest‑working people a raise, because wages of $14,500 a year are simply not enough to support a family.

In a 21st century economy, we should lower taxes on working families and make mortgage premiums more affordable, so responsible families can own their own homes. And we should strengthen programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid that help workers save for retirement and protect them from the harshest adversities. These ideas will make a meaningful difference in the lives of millions of Americans, and I look forward to working with the Congress to get them done.

Second, middle‑class economics means helping more Americans upgrade their skills so that they can earn higher wages down the road.

By the end of the decade, two in three jobs will require some higher education. Yet far too many young people are priced out of college. That can’t stand in the 21st century, and that’s why my Administration has

Economic Report of the President | 5

announced a bold new plan to offer 2 free years of community college to responsible students. Let’s work together to make college as free and universal as high school, because a modern economy requires a highly educated workforce.

While we strengthen the higher education system, my Administration is working to update our job training system and connect community colleges with local employers to train workers directly for existing, high‑paying jobs. And I’ve encouraged more companies to offer educational benefits and paid apprenticeships so more workers have a chance to earn a higher‑paying job even if they don’t have a higher education.

Finally, as we better train our workers, we need to ensure that our economy keeps creating high‑skilled, high‑wage jobs for our workers to fill. That means building the most competitive economy anywhere, so that more businesses locate and hire in the United States.

Let’s start by making sure that our businesses have 21st century infrastructure—modern ports, stronger bridges, better roads, clean water, clean energy, faster trains, and the fastest internet. A bipartisan infrastructure plan would create thousands of middle‑class jobs and support economic growth for decades to come.

Investments in science, technology, and research and development can fuel new inventions and breakthroughs that will keep American businesses one step ahead of the competition. And protecting a free and open internet, and extending its reach to every classroom and community in America, will ensure that the next generation of digital innovators and entrepreneurs have the platform to keep reshaping our world.

At a time when 95 percent of the world’s consumers live outside our borders, new trade agreements would help American businesses reach new markets and put stronger environmental and labor standards in place, to ensure that all countries are playing by the same, fair set of rules. The trade deals that my Administration is negotiating in the Atlantic and the Pacific regions would do just that.

And to make our economy more competitive, let’s build a tax code that truly helps middle‑class families get ahead. Let’s reform our business tax system to close wasteful loopholes, lower the rate, and simplify the system so small business owners spend less time on accounting and more time running their businesses. And let’s reform our broken immigration system, so the United States continues to be the number one destination for highly‑skilled immigrants.


Over the past 6 years, America has risen from recession freer to write our own future than any other nation on Earth. A new foundation is laid. A new future is ready to be written. It’s up to all of us—Democrats, Republicans, and Independents—to write it together.

the white housefebruary 2015

the annual reportof the

council of economic advisers

9

letter of transmittal

Council of Economic AdvisersWashington, D.C., February 19, 2015

Mr. President:The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its 2015

Annual Report in accordance of the Employment Act of 1946 as amended by the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978.

Sincerely yours,

Jason FurmanChairman

Betsey StevensonMember

Maurice ObstfeldMember

11

C O N T E N T S

CHAPTER 1MIDDLE-CLASS ECONOMICS: THE ROLE OF PRODUCTIVITY, INEQUALITY, AND PARTICIPATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

THE PROGRESS OF THE U.S. ECONOMIC RECOVERY . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22The Recovery in GDP and Labor Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MIDDLE-CLASS INCOMES IN THE POSTWAR PERIOD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

The Age of Shared Growth (1948-1973) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31The Age of Expanded Participation (1973-1995) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31The Age of Productivity Recovery (1995-2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32The Importance of Productivity, Inequality, and Participation . 33

THE DRIVERS OF MIDDLE-CLASS INCOMES: AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Labor Productivity Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Income Inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Labor Force Participation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

THE 2015 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

CHAPTER 2THE YEAR IN REVIEW AND THE YEARS AHEAD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

KEY EVENTS OF 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Aggregate Output Growth during the Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Fiscal Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Monetary Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49International Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

DEVELOPMENTS IN 2014 AND THE NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK . . . . . . 67Consumer Spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67Housing Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

12 | Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers

Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79State and Local Governments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81Labor Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87The 10-Year Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87GDP Growth over the Long Term . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

CHAPTER 3ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN THE U.S. LABOR MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

THE STATE OF THE U.S. LABOR MARKET IN 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

A Longer-Term Perspective on Labor Force Participation . . . . . 112Decomposing the Decline in Participation Since 2007 . . . . . . . . . 114Outlook for the Participation Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122Trends in Long-Term Unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123Factors behind Elevated Rates of Long-Term Unemployment . 126Why Long-term Unemployment Matters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

PART-TIME WORK FOR ECONOMIC REASONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128Patterns in Part-Time For Economic Reasons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129The Outlook for the Rate of Part-Time for Economic Reasons . 132

LABOR MARKET FLUIDITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134Trends in Labor Market Fluidity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136Potential Consequences of Reduced Fluidity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139

WAGE GROWTH AND JOB QUALITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141Job Growth in 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142Patterns in Wage Growth since the 1980s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142The Rise of the Skill Premium and Employment Growth in High- and Low-Skill Occupations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145Broader Measures of Job Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

THE AGENDA FOR A STRONGER LABOR MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

CHAPTER 4THE ECONOMICS OF FAMILY-FRIENDLY WORKPLACE POLICIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

RECENT CHANGES IN AMERICAN FAMILY LIFE AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR WORK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

Contents | 13

Attachment to the Labor Force and Educational Attainment Have Increased Significantly Among American Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160Families Are Adjusting to New Caregiving Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . 162The Effects of Work-Family Conflict. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

ACCESS TO FAMILY-FRIENDLY WORKPLACE POLICIES . . . . . . . . . . 169Access and Use of Leave in the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170Workplace Flexibility Access in the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175Disparities in Access to Paid Leave and Flexible Work Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178

STATE AND LOCAL INITIATIVES TO EXPAND ACCESS TO WORK-FAMILY FRIENDLY POLICIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184

State Paid Family Leave . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184State Paid Sick Leave . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187Right-to-Request Provisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189

THE ECONOMIC CASE FOR FAMILY-FRIENDLY WORKPLACE POLICIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192

Impact of Leave and Flexibility on Worker Health and Absenteeism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193The Role of Family-Friendly Policies in Worker Recruitment, Retention, and Productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195The Business Case for Wider Adoption of Flexible Workplace Practices and Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199

CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

CHAPTER 5BUSINESS TAX REFORM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH . . . . . . . . . . 203

THE SOURCES OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205THE HISTORICAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT FOR BUSINESS TAX REFORM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206THE PRESIDENT’S APPROACH TO BUSINESS TAX REFORM . . . . . . 217THE POTENTIAL FOR BUSINESS TAX REFORM TO BOOST PRODUCTIVITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219

Encouraging Domestic Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219Improving the Quality of Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224Reducing the Inefficiencies of the International Tax System . . . 231Investing in Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234

FOUR ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO BUSINESS TAX REFORM . 235Eliminate the Corporate Income Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235


Cut the Top Individual Rate in Parallel with the Corporate Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236Adopt a Territorial Tax System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237Allow Expensing for New Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238

CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

CHAPTER 6THE ENERGY REVOLUTION: ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND THE FOUNDATION FOR A LOW-CARBON ENERGY FUTURE . . . . . . . 241

THE ENERGY REVOLUTION: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE AND ECONOMIC BENEFITS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243

The Energy Revolution in Historical Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243GDP, Jobs, and the Trade Deficit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253Energy Prices, Households, and Businesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256Infrastructure Implications of the Energy Revolution. . . . . . . . . . 262

THE ENERGY REVOLUTION AND ENERGY SECURITY: A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265

Trends in Oil Import Prices and Shares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267Macroeconomic Channels of Oil Price Shocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269

A PATH TO A LOW-CARBON FUTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272A Case for Climate Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272The Climate Action Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275Reducing Emissions through Improved Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278The Role of Natural Gas in Lowering CO2 Emissions . . . . . . . . . . 280Supporting Renewables, Nuclear, Cleaner Coal, and Cleaner Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283International Leadership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287

CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289

CHAPTER 7THE UNITED STATES IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291

MULTILATERAL TRADE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293The Growth of U.S. and World Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294

FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297Current Trade Negotiations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

THE IMPLICATIONS OF TRADE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304Classic Gains from Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304The Labor Market Implications of Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306

DEVELOPMENT BENEFITS OF TRADE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310

Contents | 15

Global Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311Gender Equality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312Political Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313Environmental Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313

FINANCIAL FLOWS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316Composition of International Capital Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318Challenges in Regulating Global Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . 324

CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331

APPENDIXESA. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of

Economic Advisers During 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365B. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, and

Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379

FIGURES1.1a. Global Trade Flows in the Great Depression and Great Recession . . 221.1b. Household Net Worth in the Great Depression and Great Recession 231.2. Average Monthly Nonfarm Employment Growth, 2008‑2014 . . . . . . 271.3. Unemployment Rate and Consensus Forecasts, 2008‑2014 . . . . . . . . . 281.4. Real Hourly Earnings, Production & Nonsupervisory Workers,

2010‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281.5. Real Median Family Income, 1985‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291.6. Growth in Real Average Income for the Bottom 90 Percent,

1950‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351.7. Labor Productivity Growth, 1951‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361.8. Share of Income Earned by Top 1 Percent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371.9. Prime‑Age Male Labor Force Participation Rates, 1991‑2013 . . . . . . . 371.10. Prime‑Age Female Labor Force Participation Rates, 1991‑2013 . . . . . 382.1. Unemployment Rate, 1975‑2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422.2. Mean GDP Growth, 2007‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442.3. Federal Budget Deficit, 1950‑2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482.4. Market‑Implied Date of Initial Federal Funds Rate

Increase, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 502.5. Nominal Long‑ and Short‑Term Interest Rates, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 502.6. Falling Euro Area Inflation, 2011‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 532.7. Euro Area Sovereign Interest Rate Spreads over Germany,

2007‑2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 532.8. Euro Area Unemployment and Real Interest Rates,

December 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 582.9. China: Real GDP Growth, 1993‑1994 602.10. Credit to Nonfinancial Corporations and Households,

2004‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 602.11. Select Dollar Exchange Rates, 2000‑2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64


2.12. Trade in Goods, 2000‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 652.13. Trade in Services, 2000‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 652.14a. Services and Goods Composition: Imports, 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 662.14b. Services and Goods Composition: Exports, 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 662.15. Household Deleveraging, 1990‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 692.16. Consumption and Wealth Relative to Disposable Personal

Income (DPI), 1950‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 692.17. Housing Starts, 1960‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 732.18. National House Price Indexes, 2000‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 742.19. Home Prices and Owners’ Equivalent Rent, 1975‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . 752.20. U.S. Population Distribution by Age and Gender, 2013 Census . . . . . 752.21. Home Builder Sentiment Index, 2000‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 772.22. 30‑Year Fixed Mortgage Rates, 2000‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 772.23. Purchase and Refinance Activity, 2007‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782.24. Capital Services per Unit of Real Output, Private Business

Sector, 1948‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 802.25. Share Buy Backs vs. Investment, Nonfinancial Corporate

Business, 1952‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 802.26. Real State and Local Government Purchases During Recoveries . . . . 812.27. State and Local Pension Fund Liabilities, 1952‑2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 832.28. Nonfarm Payroll Employment, 2007‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 832.29. Unemployment Rate by Duration, 1990‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 842.30. Inflation and Inflation Expectations Ten Years Forward,

2000‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 862.31. Hourly Compensation Increases vs. Inflation Expectations,

2000‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 863.1. Actual and Consensus Forecast Unemployment Rate,

2008‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1063.2. Elevation and Recovery of Broader Measures of

Unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1073.3. Unemployment in Non‑U.S. OECD, Euro Area, and

United States, 2000‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1093.4. Average Monthly Job Growth by Year, 2007‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1103.5. Labor Force Participation by Gender, 1950‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1143.6. Labor Force Participation Decomposition, 2009‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . 1153.7. Detrended Participation Rate and (Inverted) Unemployment

Gap, 1960‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1173.8. Share of Recovery in Overall Unemployment Rate Due to

Declines in Short‑ and Long‑Term Unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1223.9. Unemployment Rate by Duration, 2000‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1233.10. Share of Unemployed Workers by Duration of Unemployment,

2002‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1243.11. Increase in Long‑Term Unemployment as a Percent Increase in Overall

Unemployment Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1253.12. Long‑term Unemployed as Share of Total Unemployed,

1960‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1253.13. Monthly Job Finding Rates by Duration of Unemployment in

Previous Month, December 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1273.14. Net Change in Employment Since January 2010, Household

Survey Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

Contents | 17

3.15. Rates of Part‑Time Work, 1960‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1303.16. Change in Share Part‑Time for Economic Reasons Per

Percentage‑Point Change in the Unemployment Rate, 1957‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

3.17. Share Part‑Time for Economic Reasons, Actual and Predicted, 2005‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

3.18. Share of Employees Working Part‑Time for Economic Reasons, by Industry, 1995‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

3.19. Hires, Separations, and Job‑to‑Job Flow Rates, 2000‑2013 . . . . . . . . 1353.20. Job Opening Rates, 2000‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1363.21. Trends in Hires and Separations, 1995‑2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1383.22. Employer, Occupation, and Industry Transitions, 1983‑2013 . . . . . . 1383.23. Firm and Establishment Entry Rates, 1978‑2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1403.24. Change in Job Growth vs. Average Earnings by

Industry, 2013‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1433.25. Wage Inequality, 1979‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1453.26. College Income Premium by Gender, 1963‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1463.27. Percent of Workers Receiving Employer‑Sponsored or

On‑the‑Job Training, 1996‑2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1473.28. Change in Employment by Detailed Occupation, 1989‑2014 . . . . . . 1483.29. Changes in Employment by Occupational Wage

Percentile, 1979‑2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1483.30. Share of Workers With an Offer of Employer‑Sponsored

Insurance Coverage, by Education, 1997‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1503.31. Share of Workers Included in Employer‑Provided

Retirement Plan, by Education, 1997‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1503.32. Share of Full‑Time Workers Paid a Salary, 1979‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . 1514.1. Labor Force Participation by Sex, 1948‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1614.2. Percent of Young Men and Women with a Bachelor’s Degree

or Higher, 1964‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1614.3. Employed Married Women’s Contribution to Family

Earnings, 1970‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1634.4. Percent of Households with Children in Which All Parents

Work, 1968‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1644.5. Fathers’ Reporting Role in Child Care Activities for

Selected Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1654.6. Fathers’ Average Weekly Time Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1654.7. Percent of All Unpaid Eldercare Providers Who Are

Employed, 2011‑2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1674.8. Share of Households with Children under 18 and Adults

Over 65, 1968‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1674.9. Percentage of Mothers and Fathers Reporting Work‑Family

Conflict for Selected Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1684.10. Percentage of Full‑Time Workers Who Report Work‑Family

Conflict for Selected Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1684.11. Reason for Not Taking Needed Leave, 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1764.12. Percent of Firms Offering Flexibility in the Scheduling

of Hours, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1764.13. Percent of Workers with Access to Flexible Work

Arrangements, 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177


4.14. Percent of Firms Offering Flexibility in the Location of Work, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

4.15. Percent of Firms Offering Flexibility in the Number of Hours of Work, 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

4.16. Access to Scheduling and Location Flexibility by Industry, 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

4.17. Access to Paid and Unpaid Leave by Industry, 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1814.18. Average Absence Rates With and Without Flexible

Work Scheduling, 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1954.19. The Need for Workplace Flexibility, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1975.1. Sources of Productivity Growth Over Selected Periods,

1948‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2075.2. Statutory Corporate Tax Rates in the U.S. and OECD,

1981‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2075.3. Statutory Corporate Income Rates, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2085.4. Effective Tax Rates in the G‑7, 2006‑2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2095.5. Effective Marginal Tax Rates in the G‑7, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2105.6. Effective Marginal Tax Rates in Several Tax Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2125.7. Effective Marginal Tax Rates by Source of Financing, 2014 . . . . . . . . 2285.8. Effective Marginal Tax Rates, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2305.9. C Corporation Share of Total Business Receipts, 1980‑2011 . . . . . . . 2326.1a. U.S. Energy Consumption by Source, 1775‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2456.1b. U.S. Energy Consumption by Source 2005‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2456.2a. U.S. Petroleum Consumption, 1950‑2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2466.2b. U.S. Consumption of Motor Gasoline, 1950‑2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2466.3. U.S. Petroleum Production, 1950‑2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2476.4. U.S. Petroleum Net Imports, 1950‑2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2486.5. U.S. Natural Gas Production, 1950‑2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2496.6. U.S. Fuel Ethanol and Biodiesel Consumption, 1981‑2013 . . . . . . . . 2506.7 Petroleum, Biofuels, and Natural Gas Production, 2008–2013 . . . . . 2516.8 Change in Wind Power Generation Capacity, 2010‑2013 . . . . . . . . . 2516.9 Total Monthly Wind and Solar Energy Production,

2000–2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2526.10 Contributions of Oil and Natural Gas Production to GDP

Growth, 1995–2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2536.11 Coal, Oil and Natural Gas Employment, 1949–2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2546.12 Solar‑Related Employment, 2010–2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2556.13 Total and Petroleum Trade Deficits, 1995–2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2566.14 Annual Crude Oil and Natural Gas Spot Prices, 1995–2015 . . . . . . . 2576.15a Wholesale and Residential Natural Gas Prices, 1995–2014 . . . . . . . . 2586.15b Retail Electricity Prices and Fuel Costs, 1995–2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2586.16 WTI Spot Price: Nominal and Real, 1970–2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2686.17 Net Import Shares of Petroleum Products, 1950–2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . 2696.18 Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980–2030 . . . . . . . . . . . 2796.19 U.S. Energy Intensity, 1950–2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2796.20a U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Gasoline and Real Gasoline

Prices, 2000–2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2816.20b Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2816.21 U.S. Natural Gas Production and Wholesale Prices,

2011–2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282

Contents | 19

6.22 Change in Monthly Electricity Generation and Prices, 2008–2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282

6.23 Monthly Share of Non‑Hydro Renewables in Net Power Generation, 2001–2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285

6.24 U.S. Motor Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Consumption, 2000–2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287

6.25 World Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980–2012. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2897.1 Global GDP and Exports of Goods and Services, 1960–2013 . . . . . . 2947.2 Ratio of U.S. Duties Collected to Total Imports, 1891–2013 . . . . . . . 2957.3 Global Tariff Rates by Income Group, 1988–2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2967.4 U.S. Trade in Services, 1980‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2977.5 Growth in Real U.S. Goods Trade Around Free Trade

Agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3027.6 Characteristics of Export‑Intensive and Non‑Export‑Intensive

Industries, 1989–2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3077.7 Growth of Global GDP, Trade in Goods and Services,

and Financial Flows, 1985–2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3177.8 U.S. Equity Home Bias, 2000–2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323

TABLES1.1 Components of U.S. Real GDP Growth, Percent Change at

an Annual Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231.2 Middle‑Class Income Growth and its Determinants, 1948‑2013 . . . . 301.3 Counterfactual Scenarios for Productivity, Inequality, and

Participation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342.1. Selected Interest Rates, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 522.2. Administration Economic Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 882.3. Supply‑Side Components of Actual and Potential Real GDP

Growth, 1953‑2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 993.1. Tracking the Recovery across Race, Gender, Age, and Level of

Educational Attainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1113.2. Comparison of Participation Rate Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1163.3. Wage and Earnings Gains Associated with Job Switching . . . . . . . . . 1413.4. Average Annual Percent Change in Real Productivity,

Compensation, and Wages, 1980‑2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1444.1. Access to Leave (ATUS), 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1714.2. Access to Leave (NCS), 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1734.3. Leave Use and Hours, 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1754.4. Access to Leave and Workplace Flexibility by Demographic,

Educational, and Worker Characteristics, 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1824.5. State Leave Policies as of January 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1854.6. Local Right to Request Laws . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1915.1. U.S. Controlled Foreign Corporation Profits Relative

to GDP, 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2146.1. Major Oil Disruptions, 1973–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2677.1. U.S. Free Trade Agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3007.2. Gross Global Financial Flows, 1985‑2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3197.3. Additional Basel III Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327


BOXESBox 1‑1: Macroeconomic Rebalancing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24Box 2‑1: Private Domestic Final Purchases as a Predictive Indicator

of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45Box 2‑2: International Comparison of Growth Performance . . . . . . . . . . . .54Box 2‑3: Imported Petroleum Prices and the Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62Box 2‑4: U.S. Household Wealth in the Wake of the Crisis and

Implications for Wealth Inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70Box 2‑5: Policy Proposals to Raise Long‑Run Potential Output. . . . . . . . . .90Box 2‑6: Forecasting the Long‑Run Interest Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94Box 3‑1: Unemployment Across Gender, Race, and Ethnicity Groups:

The Situation for Men of Color . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .108Box 3‑2: Changes in Labor Force Participation for Different

Subpopulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113Box 3‑3: Post‑Recession Participation in the United States and

United Kingdom. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .118Box 3‑4: Immigration Reform and Labor Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .154Box 4‑1: International Comparisons: Access to Paid Leave in

Other Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172Box 4‑2: Why is There Such a Large Difference in Reported Prevalence

Between the American Time Use Survey, the National Compensation Survey, and the National Study of Employers?. .174

Box 4‑3: Small Business and Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .180Box 4‑4: January 2015 Presidential Initiatives to Expand Leave Access

for Federal Employees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183Box 4‑5: Japan’s Strategy to Grow the Economy by Increasing

Women’s Involvement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .190Box 4‑6: Reimagining the Structure of Work at JetBlue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .199Box 5‑1: Corporate Inversions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .213Box 5‑2: Base Erosion and Profit Sharing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215Box 5‑3: Improving the Tax Code for Families . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .220Box 5‑4: Temporary Countercyclical Policies to Promote Investment . . .226Box 6‑1: Natural Gas Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .259Box 6‑2: U.S. Oil Production in a Global Perspective, and Implications

for U.S. GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .263Box 6‑3: Selected Administration Initiatives under the Climate

Action Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .277Box 7‑1: Trade in Ideas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .298Box 7‑2: Employment Impacts of Trade with China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .308Box 7‑3: Have U.S. Trade Deficits Reduced Output and Employment? . .320

economic report president - whitehouse.gov · partisanship roll back the progress we’ve achieved on so many fronts. I want to work with the Congress to invest in middle ‑class

Documents