Economic Outlook Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist March 27, 2012
Dec 24, 2015
Economic Outlook
Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior EconomistMarch 27, 2012
Economic Outlook 2
Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%GDP - CAGR: Q4 @ 3.0%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q4 @ 1.6%
Forecast
Economic Growth
We are more than two years into the economic recovery
and there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding
sovereign debt issues in Europe, the federal budget deficit and the U.S. housing
sector
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 33
The Timing of The First Fed Rate Hike
The FOMC recently extended its timeline for an “exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.” The FOMC also provided individual
member expectations about when the first fed funds rate hike will likely occur.
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Individual FOMC Member ForecastsConsensus Fed Funds Rate Hike
Appropriate Timing of Policy FirmingNumber of Participants
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Appropriate Pace of Policy FirmingTarget Federal Funds Rate at Year-End
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
Economic Outlook 4
Unemployment Rate - SA vs. NSAPercent
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%12-Month Rolling Average (NSA): Feb @ 8.8%Unemployment Rate (SA): Feb @ 8.3%
Labor Market
Technical factors may be exaggerating the recent
drop in the unemployment rate
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 5
State Employment TrendsIndex, J an. 2008=100, Nonfarm Payrolls, 12MMA, SA
84
88
92
96
100
104
108
112
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
84
88
92
96
100
104
108
112
Range for All Other States Not Shown ND
AK
DC
FLAZ
NV* As of J anuary 2012
TX
MI
Employment Growth by State
North Dakota, Alaska and Washington, D.C., continue
to lead the nation in employment growth, while
the labor markets in Nevada, Florida and
Arizona remain exceptionally weak
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 6
Housing StartsMillions of Units
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
Forecast
Homebuilding
We believe housing starts have bottomed and will
increase modestly through 2012, returning to a
“normal” level by 2015
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 7
Home PricesYear-over-Year Percentage Change
-24%
-18%
-12%
-6%
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
-24%
-18%
-12%
-6%
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
Median Sale Price: J an @ $154,400Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: J an @ -3.5%FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: J an @ -4.6%S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Dec @ -3.9%
Home Prices
Various mortgage foreclosure moratoriums and stimulus programs likely supported prices
earlier and are now giving way
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
U.S. Commercial Real Estate
Economic Outlook 9
Commercial Property Prices vs. S&P 500Index, Q1 2001 = 100
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index: Q3 @ 109.7S&P 500: Q1 @ 115.8S&P/Case Shiller National Home Price Index: Q4 @ 114.1
Commercial Real Estate Prices
Commercial real estate prices remain weak
Source: Moody’s, Standard & Poor's and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 10
Real Nonresidential ConstructionBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Nonres Construction - CAGR: Q4 @ -2.6%
Nonres Construction - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q4 @ 4.0%
Forecast
Nonresidential Construction
Nonresidential construction spending will show modest improvement over the next
couple of years
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 11
Apartment
The apartment market continues to outperform
Apartment Price vs. Vacancy RateDollars per Square Foot, Percent
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Apartment Price: Q4 @ $90.82 per SF (Left Axis)
Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 5.2% (Right Axis)
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Supply & DemandPrices
Apartment Supply & DemandPercent, Thousands of Units
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Apartment Net Completions: Q4 @ 8,865 Units (Right Axis)
Apartment Net Absorption: Q4 @ 50,565 Units (Right Axis)
Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 5.2% (Left Axis)
Economic Outlook 12
Office
Office fundamentals are still improving, but the recovery has been slow
Office Price vs. Vacancy RateDollars per Square Foot, Percent
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Office Price: Q4 @ $211.07 per SF (Left Axis)
Office Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 17.3% (Right Axis)
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Supply & DemandPrices
Office Supply & DemandPercent, Millions of Square Feet
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Office Net Completions: Q4 @ 2.4M SF (Right Axis)Office Net Absorption: Q4 @ 5.3M SF (Right Axis)Office Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 17.3% (Left Axis)
Economic Outlook 13
Industrial
Operating fundamentals for industrial properties have shown marked improvement
Industrial Price vs. Vacancy Rate Dollars per Square Foot, Percent
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
Industrial Price: Q4 @ $61.65 per SF (Left Axis)
Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 9.2% (Right Axis)
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Property & Portfolio Research, Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Supply & DemandPrices
Industrial Supply & DemandPercent, Millions of Square Feet
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Industrial Net Completions: Q4 @ 5.7M SF (Right Axis)Industrial Net Absorption: Q4 @ 32.6M SF (Right Axis)Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 9.2% (Left Axis)
Economic Outlook 14
Retail
The recovery in the retail sector continues to struggle
Retail Price vs. Vacancy RateDollars per Square Foot, Percent
$40
$80
$120
$160
$200
$240
$280
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
Retail Price: Q4 @ $188.21 per SF (Left Axis)
Retail Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 11.0% (Right Axis)
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Supply & DemandPrices
Retail Supply & DemandPercent, Millions of Square Feet
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20Retail Net Completions: Q4 @ 1.9M SF (Right Axis)Retail Net Absorption: Q4 @ 3.2M SF (Right Axis)Retail Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 11.0% (Left Axis)
North Carolina
Economic Outlook 16
North Carolina Employment: Percent of Previous Peak Percent
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
Percent of Previous Peak: J an @ 94.4%
North Carolina Employment Picture
North Carolina’s labor market is improving, but total payrolls remain well below their prerecession
peak level
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 17
N.C. Unemployment Rate & Labor ForcePercent, Thousands of Workers, Seasonally Adjusted
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000Total Employed: J an @ 4,207K (Right Axis)Total Unemployed: J an @ 476K (Right Axis)Unemployment Rate: J an @ 10.2% (Left Axis)12-Month Moving Average: J an @ 10.5% (Left Axis)
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate in North Carolina is well above
the national average
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 1818
North Carolina – Unemployment Rate Composition
Unemployment Rate by County
North Carolina Unemployment RateDecember 2011
Greater than 15.5%
Less than 9.5%
9.5% to 11.0%
12.5% to 15.5%
11.0% to 12.5%
Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 19
Metro-Level Employment (Year Ago)
North Carolina Employment Growth: J an. 2011Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average
Charlotte
Raleigh-Cary
Greensboro-High Point
Winston-Salem
Durham-Chapel Hill
Fayetteville
Hickory-Lenoir
Wilmington
Asheville
-0.75%
-0.50%
-0.25%
0.00%
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
1.50%
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Year-over-Year Percent Change
3-M
on
th M
ovin
g A
vera
ge P
erc
en
t C
han
ge
Recovering Expanding
Contracting Decelerating
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 20
Metro-Level Employment (Today)
North Carolina Employment Growth: J an. 2012Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average
Asheville
Charlotte
Raleigh-CaryGreensboro-
High Point
Winston-Salem
Durham-Chapel Hill
Fayetteville
Hickory-Lenoir
Wilmington
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Year-over-Year Percent Change
3-M
on
th M
ovin
g A
vera
ge P
erc
en
t C
han
ge
Recovering Expanding
Contracting Decelerating
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 2121
North Carolina – Home Prices & Construction
Even though home prices in North Carolina did not become too far out of whack during the boom years, construction took a big hit and continues to struggle
CoreLogic Home Price Index: NC vs. USIndex, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
United States: J an @ 131.4
North Carolina: J an @ 125.8
Source: CoreLogic, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Housing PermitsHome Prices
North Carolina Housing PermitsThousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Single-Family: J an @ 23,304Single-Family, 12-Month Moving Avg.: J an @ 24,483Multi-Family, 12-Month Moving Avg.: J an @ 10,424
NC Single-Family Avg. (1988 to 2003): 51,023
Economic Outlook 22
Charlotte MSA – Employment Growth & Unemployment Rate
Employment growth has been choppy, with some gains in professional and business services and information services. The unemployment rate remains well
above the national average
Charlotte MSA Nonfarm Employment3-Month Moving Averages
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
3-Month Annual Rate: Dec @ 1.2%
Year-over-Year Percent Change: Dec @ 0.4%
Household: Yr/Yr Percent Change: Dec @ 0.1%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Unemployment RateEmployment
Charlotte MSA Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%Unemployment Rate: Dec @ 10.4%
12-Month Moving Average: Dec @ 10.7%
Economic Outlook 2323
Charlotte Area – Unemployment by County
Charlotte Area Unemployment – December 2011
Charlotte Area Unemployment RateDecember 2011
Greater than 12.6%
Less than 10.0%11.4% to 12.6%
10.0% to 11.4%
Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Union9.0%
Rowan10.9%
Cabarrus9.9%
Mecklenburg10.0%
Iredell10.5%
Stanley10.3%
Anson12.2%
Lancaster13.5%
York12.9%
Chester14.8%
Lincoln10.7%
Gaston11.0 %
Cleveland10.6%
Economic Outlook 24
Charlotte MSA Population GrowthIn Thousands
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Charlotte MSA – Population Growth
Population growth slowed from its record pace, but
remains strong nonetheless
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 2525
Charlotte MSA – Home Prices & Construction
Home prices are showing some signs of stabilization, but construction activity remains sluggish
Home Price Index: Charlotte MSAIndex, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
United States: J an @ 131.4
Charlotte MSA: J an @ 114.0
Source: CoreLogic, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Housing PermitsHome Prices
Charlotte MSA Housing PermitsThousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Single-Family: Dec @ 4,356Single-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Dec @ 4,653Multi-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Dec @ 1,625
CLT Single-Family Avg. (1988 to 2003): 11,055
Economic Outlook 26
Charlotte Apt. Supply & DemandPercent, Thousands of Units
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Apartment Completions: Q4 @ 0 Units (Right Axis)
Apartment Net Absorption: Q4 @ 746 Units (Right Axis)
Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 6.0% (Left Axis)
Charlotte Apartment Market
Charlotte’s apartment market continues to
outperform. Vacancy rates have fallen dramatically over the past two years.
Source: Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 27
Charlotte Office Supply & DemandPercent, Millions of Units
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Office Completions: Q4 @ 0 SF (Right Axis)Office Net Absorption: Q4 @ -80,000 SF (Right Axis)Office Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 16.5% (Left Axis)
Charlotte Office Market
Charlotte’s office market continues to struggle.
Vacancy rates have yet to reach a peak.
Source: Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 28
Charlotte Retail Supply & DemandPercent, Thousands of Units
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-600
-300
0
300
600
Retail Completions: Q4 @ 0 SF (Right Axis)Retail Net Absorption: Q4 @ 33,000 SF (Right Axis)Retail Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 10.8% (Left Axis)
Charlotte Retail Market
Charlotte’s retail market is showing some modest
improvement, but there is very little transaction activity taking place
Source: Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 29
Charlotte Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 6.0%
Retail Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 10.8%Office Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 16.5%
Warehouse Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 10.8%
Charlotte CRE Vacancy Rates
Vacancy rates are falling in Charlotte’s apartment and industrial markets, but are showing less improvement
in the city’s office and retail markets
Source: Reis, Inc., PPR and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 30
Asian Real Estate Bubble?
Trade Wars & Currency
Devaluations
Credit Availability & Financial Reform
European Debt Crisis
Deleveraging
Fiscal & Monetary Policy
GeopoliticalTensions
Energy/Commodity Price Swings
Issues to Watch
Economic Outlook 31
Our Forecast
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Real Gross Domestic Product 1 0.4 1.3 1.8 3.0 1.8 1.4 2.4 2.3 - 3.6 3.0 1.7 2.0 2.2
Personal Consumption 2.1 0.7 1.7 3.0 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 - 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.3
Inflation Indicators 2
PCE Deflator 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.8 0.6 1.8 2.5 1.9 1.9
Consumer Price Index 2.1 3.3 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.4 - 0.3 1.6 3.1 2.4 2.3
Industrial Production 1 4.8 0.7 6.2 3.8 4.4 3.2 3.0 2.2 - 11.1 5.3 4.2 3.7 2.3
Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2 8.8 8.5 7.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.5 9.1 32.2 7.8 6.3 6.5
Trade Weighted Dollar Index 3 70.6 69.4 72.8 73.3 73.5 74.0 74.5 75.0 77.7 75.6 70.9 74.3 77.0
Unemployment Rate 9.0 9.0 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.4 9.3 9.6 9.0 8.4 8.3
Housing Starts 4 0.58 0.57 0.62 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.55 0.58 0.61 0.70 0.81
Quarter- End Interest Rates 5
Federal Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25Conventional Mortgage Rate 4.84 4.51 4.11 3.96 4.00 4.00 4.10 4.10 5.04 4.69 4.46 4.05 4.2510 Year Note 3.47 3.18 1.92 1.89 2.30 2.30 2.40 2.50 3.26 3.22 2.78 2.38 2.73
Forecast as of: March 16, 20121 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter2 Year-over-Year Percentage Change3 Federal Reserve Major Currency I ndex, 1973=100 - Quarter End4 Millions of Units5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages
2012ForecastActual
2011ForecastActual
Appendix
Economic Outlook 33
Recent Special Commentary
Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications
To view any of our past research please visit:
http://www.wellsfargo.com/economics
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visit:http://www.wellsfargo.com/
economicsemail
Date Title Authors
March- 19 The Composition of J ob Growth: A Low- Wage Bias Vitner & SeydlMarch- 16 2011: Revising a Year of Modest J ob Growth Vitner & BrownMarch- 15 Three Hard Realities Continue to Limit the Cyclical Expansion SilviaMarch- 09 Economic Outlook and the Biases that Limit Our Thinking SilviaMarch- 09 Credit Quality Monitor Anderson & KashmarekMarch- 09 The Quality of J ob Growth Remains Subpar VitnerMarch- 06 Three Measures of a Healthy Labor Market: A Cyclical View Silvia, Iqbal & WattMarch- 05 Georgia’s Recovery Kicked Into High Gear During 2011 VitnerMarch- 05 Regional Impact of Gasoline Prices Vitner & BrownMarch- 05 The Evolution of the Economy, Credit & Economic Policy Silvia
February- 28 Insourcing: Manufacturing - A Viable Solution in a Global Economy? Silvia, Brown & SwankoskiFebruary- 27 Is the Skills Disconnect In the Labor Force New? Silvia & BrownFebruary- 16 Does the New LEI Alter Recession Predictability Accuracy? Silvia & IqbalFebruary- 13 Disparities of Education and Structural Unemployment Silvia, Brown & SwankoskiFebruary- 13 WTI: No Longer A Benchmark For Oil Prices AlemanFebruary- 08 Bank Lending: Fed's Survey Suggests Support for Growth Silvia & WattFebruary- 02 The Fragile Fiscal Policy Outlook: I Silvia & Brown
J anuary- 31 Housing Chartbook: J anuary 2011 Vitner, Khan & SeydlJ anuary- 31 How Does The Recent Drop In The Unemployment Rate Square With Okun’s Law? Vitner & SeydlJ anuary- 25 FOMC: Why the Recent Past Seldom Predicts the Future SilviaJ anuary- 19 Vacancies and the Housing Recovery Vitner & SeydlJ anuary- 13 How Might Fiscal Restraint Generate Economic Growth? Silvia & WattJ anuary- 13 Eastern Europe Faces Monetary Policy Dilemma Anderson & KashmarekJ anuary- 12 Global Chartbook: J anuary 2012J anuary- 11 Bank Credit: A Surprisingly Typical Cycle Silvia & WattJ anuary- 05 The Charlotte Economy: Improvement Ahead Silvia & Brown
December- 30 Commodity Price Volatility to Continue AlemanDecember- 28 Colorado Outlook: December 2011 Anderson & KashmarekDecember- 22 South Korea Moves Forward on Free Trade AndersonDecember- 21 Indian Economy: Still Deteriorating at the Margin BrysonDecember- 21 Georgia Economic Outlook: December 2011 Vitner & SeydlDecember- 20 What's Behind the Upward Trend in Housing Activity? Vitner & KhanDecember- 14 New J ersey Faces Additional Hurdles Vitner, Khan & WattDecember- 14 Russia: Black Gold and Political Stranglehold Anderson & KashmarekDecember- 20 Arizona: Growth, but at a Lower Gear Aleman & SwankoskiDecember- 19 Europe in 2012: Renaissance or More Dark Ages Bryson, Quinlan, & SeydlDecember- 12 Thunder Down Under: Australia Braces for a Storm QuinlanDecember- 09 Pennsylvania Economic Update and Outlook Bryson, Quinlan, & SeydlDecember- 08 Minnesota Economic Outlook: December 2011 Anderson & KashmarekDecember- 08 Credit Quality Monitor - December 2011 Anderson & KashmarekDecember- 05 What is Driving Construction Spending? Vitner & Khan
November- 30 Coordinated Action by Major Central Banks Bryson November- 30 California Outlook: November 2011 Anderson & WattNovember- 22 The Deficit Reduction Committee: A Successful Failure Silvia, Bullard, Brown & WattNovember- 22 Giddy- Up J ingle Horse: Holiday Sales Preview Vitner, Quinlan, & SeydlNovember- 16 Global Chartbook: November 2011November- 15 Has the Fed’s Unconventional Approach Been Successful? Silvia & Khan
A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary
Economic Outlook 34
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group
34
John Silvia … ...................... . …[email protected]
Global Head of Research and Economics
Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ………[email protected] Head of Research & Economics
Chief Economist
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. ..
Jay Bryson, Global Economist
…………………....………[email protected]
Scott Anderson, Senior Economist…………… …[email protected]
Eugenio Aleman, Senior Economist
……………[email protected]
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist
…………………………[email protected]
Senior Economists
Joe Seydl, Economic Analyst ……………………………[email protected]
Sarah Watt, Economic Analyst ……………………………[email protected]
Kaylyn Swankoski, Economic Analyst [email protected]
Economists
Anika Khan, Economist…………….… . [email protected]
Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………………………[email protected]
Ed Kashmarek, Economist ……………………………[email protected]
Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………………………[email protected]
Michael Brown, Economist ………………………[email protected]
Economic Analysts
Peg Gavin ………………………...………………. [email protected]
Executive Assistant
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