Economic Outlook March 2012 Economic Policy Division.

Economic OutlookMarch 2012

Economic Policy Division

Real GDP Outlook

U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1970 to Q4 2011

Real GDP Trillion 2005 Dollars Log Scale

$5.2-

$11.5-

$7.7-

$4.2-

$14.0-

$9.4-

$6.3-

Forecast

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real Disposable Income Per Capita

Household Wealth

Personal Consumption Outlook

Consumer Debt Service

Household Liabilities

Household Assets

Household Balance Sheet

Net National Savings

Net National Savings Rate

Savings Components

Housing Market Trends

Housing Starts

Median Home Prices

Housing Inventory

Home Sales

Housing Market Trends

Mortgage Delinquency Rates

Mortgage Foreclosure Rates

Housing Affordability Index

Investment

Real Private Investment in Equipment &

Software

Real Private Investment - Structures

Real Change in Private

Inventories

Sector Indicators

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

Total Rail Carloadings

Boxboard Production

U.S. Trade

Real Net Exports of Goods and Services

U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange

Rate

Labor Market

Total Nonfarm Jobs

Initial Unemployment

Claims

Unemployment Rate January: 8.3

percent

Household Employment

Civilian Participation

Rate

Duration of Unemployment

Part-time for Economic Reasons

Discouraged Workers

Labor Market

Labor Participation Rates(by age class, population shares)

16%

Inflation

Consumer Price Index

Core Consumer Price Index

Spot Market Price Index: All

Commodities

Spot Market Price Index: Metals

Interest Rates & Spreads

Risk Spread

Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus

Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield

10-Year Treasury Note Yield

3-Month Treasury Note Yield

TED Spread

3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month

Treasury

Fed Policy

Bank Assets and Liabilities

Delinquency Rates at Commercial Banks

Consumer Credit Outstanding

Domestic Bank Lending

Home Equity Loans

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Percent of GDP Deficit to GDP

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Billions $ Budget Deficit

CBO’s Baseline Deficit

(January 2012)

Alternative Deficit Forecasts

ForecastBudget Deficit

Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Percent of GDP

Debt to GDP

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Billions $Debt

Government Baseline Debt

(CBO’s Baseline – January 2012)

Alternative Debt Forecasts

Forecast

Government Revenues and Outlays( percent of GDP)

Source: CBO Baseline (January 2012)