Economic Monitoring in an Uncertain Global Environment Processes and Tools from the World Bank Soong Sup Lee Hans Timmer Gauresh Rajadhyaksha The World Bank Group Washington, DC Presentation at the International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators, Scheveningen, The Netherlands
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Economic Monitoring in an Uncertain Global Environment Processes and Tools from the World Bank Soong Sup Lee Hans Timmer Gauresh Rajadhyaksha The World.
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Economic Monitoring in an Uncertain Global Environment
Processes and Tools from the World Bank
Soong Sup LeeHans Timmer
Gauresh Rajadhyaksha
The World Bank GroupWashington, DC
Presentation at the International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators, Scheveningen, The Netherlands
Monitoring and High Frequency data
• Who we are– Team of macro-economists– Provide “data-driven, forward looking analyses”
• Produce Bank global forecasts• Provide planning, investment, and policy-advice to Senior
and Executive Management– Monitor real and financial indicators
• Trade, financial flows, commodity prices, remittances flows– Maintain Datasystems for high-frequency data
• Service internal and external clients with a daily-updating high frequency data-set
Outline of the presentation
• Examples from some of our analytical work during the onset of the financial crisis
• Details of our data infrastructure• Conclusions and “lessons for the future”
1. “Revealed Vulnerability Index”Identifying risk during the financial crisis
2. “Credit Risk Monitoring”Inputs to briefing for the Bank’s Risk Committee
• Monthly briefing to Sr. Management on the Credit Risks of client countries
• We provide “global overview” that supplements the “country details”
• We “aggregate” country data to provide a broader implication of the existing climate
Interactive Data Portal “World Bank’s High Frequency Data system“
Interactive Charts to compare “Aggregate” with “country” data
Heat Maps to visualize global trends
Conclusions• We rely heavily on high frequency data (and
estimates) for our analyses• We have learnt that “aggregating” high-
frequency data provides a unique flavor to any economic analyses
• Modern-day graphing and visualization tools make it very easy to compare country data with larger groups and aid in information dissemination
• And yes, our appetite for high frequency data is only increasing!
Some Road-blocks …
• Our biggest challenge to-date has been in “harmonizing” diverse reporting practices across the world– Same indicator is often reported with different
assumptions across countries– Any harmonization efforts would be very much
welcomed by us!• We source our data from commercial providers
and there is a limit to our “sharing” of this data with our external customers
Lessons LearntKeys to Success
• At the onset of the financial crisis, our analysts could respond in large part due to our robust Datasystems that update information on a Daily basis– Includes retrieving data, processing and harmonizing, and
creating aggregates• High Frequency data is seen to be playing an
increasingly important role in various economic modeling exercises
• Successful dissemination must cater to the needs of both the novice and advanced users– For eg: we provide data in Excel format to our novice user
and will soon provide programmatic access (via an API) to our advanced users