Economic Leadership in times of crisis€¦ · Economic Leadership in times of crisis: Implementing the US stimulus program Presented by the HC Coombs Policy Forum, ANU and. Mr G.

Economic Leadership in times of crisis: Implementing the US stimulus program

Presented by the HC Coombs Policy Forum, ANU and

Mr G. Edward DeSeveSpecial Advisor to the US President for Recovery Implementationand Guest Lecturer, Carnegie Mellon University, Australia

5-6pm, Wednesday 2nd March 2011 The Finkel Lecture Theatre, John Curtin School of Medical Research Building #131ANU, Canberra, Australia.

America’s Economic Recovery Plan: Strategy, Policy and Implications

HC Coombs Policy ForumWednesday 2nd March 2011

G. Edward DeSeve

America’s Economic Recovery Plan: Strategy, Policy and Implications

“Not since Great Depression have we faced a situation like this. Roosevelt had to save the economy and was committed to balancing the budget. He finally gave up balancing the budget and was bailed out by the World War Two.”

(Taken from a conversation with Paul Volcker)

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50

Priv

ate-

sect

or p

ayro

ll em

ploy

men

t as

perc

ent o

f pea

k

Months from start of recession

Solid Line: Recession

Dotted Line: Recovery

Current Recession

1981 Recession

2001 Recession

1990 Recession

The Deepest Recession Since the Great Depression (Source Office of the Vice President)

President’s Commission

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11

Mon

thly

cha

nge

in p

riva

te p

ayro

ll em

ploy

men

t (th

ousa

nds)

Monthly Private-Sector Job Gains and Losses(Source: Office of the Vice President)

Recovery Act in effect

-0.7%

0.6%

-4.0%

-6.8%

-4.9%

-0.7%

1.6%

5.0%

3.7%

1.7%

2.6%3.2%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4

Rea

l GD

P gr

owth

, sea

sona

lly a

djus

ted

at a

n an

nual

rat

eReal Growth of Gross Domestic Product

Source Office of the Vice President

Recovery Act in effect

Obama Budget 2012

Jobs Impact of Recovery Act

Source: Council of Economic Advisers, November 2010

Taxes as a Percent of GDP 2008: OECD

Total tax revenueAs a percentage of GDP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 or latest available year 2001

Federal and State Revenue: Economic Policy Institute

Federal and state/local revenue as a share of GDP, 1969-2009

Federal revenues roughly constant while state and local revenues rise

Rockefeller Institute

Source: The Rockefeller Institute

Annual Changes in Federal Aid to State and Local Governments (as % of GDP)

Source: The Rockefeller Institute

Corporate Profits

Prescriptions Festina Lente- “Make haste slowly” It’s the economy stupid = G20 It is all relative Retirement matters Healthcare matters more Don’t forget the governors and mayors Start now Stay the course

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