Economic Impacts of Salinity in the Central Valley Sacramento Regional Water Quality Control Board State Water Resources Control Board.

Economic Impacts of Salinity in the Central Valley

Sacramento Regional Water Quality Control Board

State Water Resources Control Board

Richard HowittResource Economist, University of California, Davis

Jonathan Kaplan Economist, California State University, Sacramento

Doug Larson Resource Economist, University of California, Davis

Duncan MacEwan Graduate Assistant, University of California, Davis

Josué Medellin-Azuara Post Doctoral Researcher, University of California, Davis

Nancy Lee Consulting Economist, Amherst

Gerald Horner Economist, State Water Resources Control Board

Objective• Economic Impacts of Salinity Accumulations in the

Central Valley to 2030

Geographic Scope• Major Central Valley Watersheds• State

Economic Scope• General Equilibrium

Direct Economic Effects• Major Sectors

Non-market Economic Effects

• Estimate the Economic Effects of Salinity in the Central Valley to 2030

• Assuming:– Current Policy Parameters

• Environmental• Development-Water and Land Use• Economic• International

– Existing Hydrogeology – No Specific Constituent Analysis

• One Year Project

Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board

Sacramento River Basin

San Joaquin River Basin

Tulare Lake Basin

Friant Kern Canal

Delta-Mendota Canal

Sacramento Basin REMI Model County Configuration

Population

37,294

8,754

3,595 2,851 2,308

46,648

11,406

4,795 3,744 2,866

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

California Central Valley Sacramento San Joaquin Tulare

2008

2030

Population

25%

30%33%

31%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

California Central Valley Sacramento San Joaquin Tulare

% change

Relative change in the shallow groundwater table

(0.46 - 0.58% /pa-- Shoups 2004).

Saline Affected Areas (DWR 2001)

Central Valley Production Model

(19 Cells)

Baseline Annual Animal Numbers by Basin

Basin Dairy Hog Cattle Broiler Layer

Sacramento River 36,014 6,270 51,228 130,690 21,347

San Joaquin River 623,896 5,138 67,246 4,156,572 8,618,585

Tulare 843,750 8,290 49,005 14,005,610 13,257

Total 1,503,660 19,698 167,479 18,292,871 8,653,189

Total Economic Impacts

• Output

• Gross Regional Product

• Income

• Employment

• Population

• Labor Force

California: -2.148

Decrease in Output: 2030California: $2.148 (Bil 2000$)

0.294

(0.000)0.024

0.153

0.365

0.124

0.212

0.036

0.103

0.135

0.209

0.146

0.0380.055

0.013

0.112

0.0310.052 0.049

-$0.050

$0.000

$0.050

$0.100

$0.150

$0.200

$0.250

$0.300

$0.350

$0.400

Forestr

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Decrease in Manufacturing Output: 2030 (Bil 2000$)

Area Basin Region State

Sacramento $0.030 ----- -----

San Joaquin $0.069 ----- -----

Tulare $0.063 ----- -----

Total Central Valley ----- $0.162 -----

Rest of California ----- $0.203 -----

California ----- ----- $0.365

Rest of California

Decrease in Output: 2030Rest of California: $.992 (Bil 2000$)

0.003 0.0010.010

0.039

0.203

0.0750.062

0.023

0.079

0.102

0.140

0.104

0.027 0.032

0.0090.022 0.018 0.024 0.017

$0.000

$0.050

$0.100

$0.150

$0.200

$0.250

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Decrease in Output: 2030Rest of California: $.992 (Bil 2000$)

0.08%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.01%

0.02%0.02% 0.02% 0.02%

0.03% 0.03% 0.03%

0.02%0.02%

0.03%

0.01%

0.03%0.02%

0.02%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

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Decrease in Output: Manufacturing 2030Rest of California: $.203 (Bil $2000)

0.0020.0030.0010.0080.008

0.098

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0.0050.0000.0020.0040.0000.0030.0030.002

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Decrease in Output: Manufacturing 2030Rest of California:$.203 (Bil $2000)

0.02%

0.02%

0.01%

0.02%0.02%

0.01%

0.02%0.02%

0.00%

0.03%

0.02%0.02%

0.02%

0.01%

0.03%

0.02%

0.02%

0.02%

0.02%

0.01%

0.03%

0.02%

0.000%

0.005%

0.010%

0.015%

0.020%

0.025%

0.030%

0.035%

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Central Valley

Decrease in Output: 2030Central Valley: $1.155 (Bil 2000$)

0.290

(0.001)0.014

0.114

0.162

0.049

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0.0130.023

0.032

0.068

0.042

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0.004

0.089

0.0130.028 0.031

-$0.050

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$0.050

$0.100

$0.150

$0.200

$0.250

$0.300

$0.350

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Decrease in Output: 2030Central Valley: $1.155 (Bil 2000$)

7.07%

-0.01%0.13% 0.26% 0.09%0.11% 0.19% 0.06% 0.05%0.06% 0.08% 0.11% 0.07%0.11% 0.11% 0.13% 0.20%0.16% 0.15%

-1.0%

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2.0%

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4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

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Decrease in Output: Manufacturing 2030Central Valley: $.162 (Bil $2000)

0.0020.0030.0010.0040.004

0.009

0.0000.0010.0010.0010.003

0.087

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0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0040.002

0.0100.0070.004

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Decrease in Output: Manufacturing 2030Central Valley:$.162 (Bil $2000)

0.04%

0.08%

0.03%

0.07%0.10%

0.01%

0.04%0.05%

0.02%

0.06%0.07%

0.29%0.30%

0.06%0.08%0.08%

0.25%

0.13%0.12%

0.03%

0.09%0.11%

0.000%

0.050%

0.100%

0.150%

0.200%

0.250%

0.300%

0.350%

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Tulare Lake Basin

Decrease in Output: 2030Tulare: $.766 (Bil 2000$)

0.228

(0.001)0.012

0.083

0.063

0.033

0.110

0.0070.012 0.016

0.0370.025

0.0050.016

0.002

0.068

0.0080.0200.023

-$0.050

$0.000

$0.050

$0.100

$0.150

$0.200

$0.250

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Decrease in Output: 2030Tulare: $.766 (Bil 2000$)

11.48%

-0.02%0.38%

1.07%

0.21% 0.36%0.72%

0.12% 0.22%0.22% 0.31% 0.49%0.21% 0.41%0.42% 0.50%1.00%

0.58% 0.56%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Forestr

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Decrease in Output: Manufacturing 2030Tulare: $.063 (Bil $2000)

0.0010.0010.0000.0020.0020.001

0.0000.0000.0000.0000.001

0.037

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Decrease in Output: Manufacturing 2030Tulare: $.063 (Bil $2000)

0.10%

0.19%

0.04%

0.18%

0.12%

0.04%

0.10%

0.14%

0.00%

0.14%0.15%

0.32%

0.45%

0.13%

0.21%0.24%

0.37%

0.26%

0.33%

0.11%

0.38%

0.20%

0.000%

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San Joaquin River Basin

Decrease in Output: 2030San Joaquin: $.269 (Bil 2000$)

0.056

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Decrease in Output: 2030San Joaquin: $.269 (Bil 2000$)

6.00%

0.00%0.04% 0.14%0.09% 0.07%0.11%0.04% 0.03%0.03% 0.06%0.07%0.06% 0.06%0.07% 0.07%0.15% 0.09%0.08%

-1.0%

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, Foo

d Ser

vices

Oth

er S

ervi

ces (

excl

Gov

)

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Decrease in Output: Manufacturing 2030San Joaquin: $.069 (Bil $2000)

0.0010.0010.0000.0020.0020.002

0.0000.0010.0010.0010.001

0.038

0.008

0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0010.001

0.0050.003

0.001

$0.000

$0.005

$0.010

$0.015

$0.020

$0.025

$0.030

$0.035

$0.040

Woo

d pro

duct m

fg

Nonm

etal

lic m

iner

al pr

od mfg

Primar

y meta

l mfg

Fabricat

ed m

etal p

rod

mfg

Mac

hiner

y mfg

Compute

r, ele

ctro

nic pro

d mfg

Electri

cal e

quip, a

pplianc

e mfg

Mot

or ve

hicle

mfg

Transp

equip

mfg

. exc.

moto

r veh

Furnitu

re, r

elate

d pro

d mfg

Misc

ellan

eous m

fg

Food m

fg

Bever

age,

tobac

co p

rod m

fg

Textil

e mill

s

Textil

e pro

d mill

s

Apparel

mfg

Leath

er, a

llied

pro

d mfg

Paper m

fg

Printin

g, re

l supp ac

t

Petro

leum

, coa

l pro

d mfg

Chemica

l mfg

Plasti

cs, r

ubber p

rod m

fg

Bill

ions

Fix

ed 2

000$

Decrease in Output: Manufacturing 2030San Joaquin: $.069 (Bil $2000)

0.06%0.07%

0.04%

0.07%

0.14%

0.02%

0.07%0.05%

0.08%

0.06%0.06%

0.30%0.30%

0.20%

0.12%

0.06%

0.25%

0.10%0.10%

0.02%

0.09%0.10%

0.000%

0.050%

0.100%

0.150%

0.200%

0.250%

0.300%

0.350%

Wood

pro

duct m

fg

Nonm

etal

lic m

iner

al pro

d mfg

Primar

y meta

l mfg

Fabricat

ed m

etal p

rod m

fg

Mach

iner

y mfg

Compute

r, ele

ctro

nic pro

d mfg

Electri

cal e

quip, a

ppliance

mfg

Moto

r veh

icle m

fg

Transp

equip

mfg

. exc.

moto

r veh

Furnitu

re, r

elate

d pro

d mfg

Misc

ellan

eous m

fg

Food m

fg

Bever

age,

tobac

co p

rod m

fg

Textil

e mill

s

Textil

e pro

d mill

s

Apparel m

fg

Leath

er, a

llied

pro

d mfg

Paper m

fg

Printin

g, re

l supp ac

t

Petro

leum

, coa

l pro

d mfg

Chemica

l mfg

Plasti

cs, r

ubber p

rod m

fg

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Sacramento River Basin

Output: 2030Sacramento River Basin

1.2 0.74.5

21.1

78.4

21.2

37.0

9.6

19.3

26.7

41.0

19.6

6.9 9.8

1.6

30.1

3.48.5 9.7

$0.000

$10.000

$20.000

$30.000

$40.000

$50.000

$60.000

$70.000

$80.000

$90.000

Fores

try, F

ishin

g, Oth

er

Min

ing

Utiliti

es

Constr

uction

Man

ufactu

ring

Whole

sale

Trade

Retail

Trade

Transp

, War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Finan

ce, I

nsura

nce

Real E

state,

Ren

tal, L

easin

g

Profes

s, Tec

h Serv

ices

Mngm

t of C

o, Ent

er

Admin

, Was

te Ser

vices

Educat

ional

Servi

ces

Health

Car

e, Soc

ial A

sst

Arts, E

nter

, Rec

Accom

, Foo

d Ser

vices

Other

Serv

ices (

excl

Gov)

Bill

ion

s F

ixed

200

0$

Decrease in Output: 2008-2030Sacramento River Basin

0.006

0.0000.001

0.009

0.030

0.006

0.013

0.003

0.005

0.009

0.014

0.006

0.002 0.0030.001

0.006

0.0010.003 0.003

$0.000

$0.005

$0.010

$0.015

$0.020

$0.025

$0.030

$0.035

Forestr

y, Fish

ing,

Other

Min

ing

Utiliti

es

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufact

uring

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Transp

, Ware

housing

Info

rmat

ion

Finan

ce, I

nsura

nce

Real E

state

, Ren

tal, L

easin

g

Profe

ss, T

ech S

ervice

s

Mngm

t of C

o, Enter

Admin

, Was

te S

ervice

s

Educatio

nal S

ervi

ces

Hea

lth C

are,

Socia

l Ass

t

Arts,

Enter

, Rec

Accom

, Foo

d Ser

vices

Oth

er S

ervi

ces (

excl

Gov

)

Bill

ions

Fix

ed 2

000$

Decrease in Output: 2008-2030Sacramento River Basin

0.53%

0.02%0.03%0.04%0.04%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.04%

0.02%0.04%0.03%0.03%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

Forestr

y, Fish

ing,

Other

Min

ing

Utiliti

es

Constr

uctio

n

Manufa

cturin

g

Wholes

ale T

rade

Retail

Tra

de

Transp

, Ware

housing

Info

rmat

ion

Finan

ce, I

nsura

nce

Real E

state

, Ren

tal, L

easin

g

Profe

ss, T

ech S

ervice

s

Mngm

t of C

o, Enter

Admin

, Was

te S

ervice

s

Educatio

nal S

ervi

ces

Hea

lth C

are,

Socia

l Ass

t

Arts,

Enter,

Rec

Accom

, Foo

d Ser

vices

Oth

er S

ervi

ces (

excl

Gov

)

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Output: 2030Sacramento River Basin

3.61.4 0.3

2.4 1.2

48.6

0.7 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.35.3

2.60.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.7

3.71.2

$0.000

$10.000

$20.000

$30.000

$40.000

$50.000

$60.000

Woo

d pro

duct

mfg

Nonm

etal

lic m

iner

al pr

od m

fg

Primar

y meta

l mfg

Fabricat

ed m

etal p

rod

mfg

Mac

hiner

y mfg

Compu

ter,

elect

roni

c pro

d mfg

Electri

cal e

quip, a

pplianc

e mfg

Mot

or ve

hicle m

fg

Transp

equip

mfg

. exc

. moto

r veh

Furnitu

re, r

elate

d pro

d mfg

Misc

ellan

eous m

fg

Food m

fg

Bever

age,

tobac

co p

rod m

fg

Textil

e mill

s

Textil

e pro

d mill

s

Appare

l mfg

Leath

er, a

llied

pro

d mfg

Paper m

fg

Printin

g, re

l supp ac

t

Petro

leum

, coa

l pro

d mfg

Chem

ical m

fg

Plasti

cs, r

ubber p

rod m

fg

Bill

ions

Fix

ed 2

000$