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Ceokoh`e Gskmahck}aju akm }fc
U}oel Hatlc}
Ucest`}p Akajpu`u
]cth Yayct
Usdh`}}cm }o*
Ytog+ ]+ M+ Efosmfstp
Usdh`}}cm dp>
Uftamfa M`rak
96 DU 999 5129
@EGA@ Dsu`kcuu Uefooj* Lojla}a
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@K]TOMSE]@OK
UCKUCV tcaefcm a ycal og 49*999 akm }fck gcjj j`lc a yael og eatmu }o 19*999+ Mo }fcuc
kshdctu usbbcu} akp}f`kb ados} }fc haetoceokoh`e btor}f og }fc eosk}tp?
]fc u}oel hatlc} `u a eau`ko u}a}cu }fc Lcpkcu`ak }fcu`u+ Forcwct* `} `u ajuo abok`~cm
}fa} u}oel hatlc}u ckadjc ycoyjc r`}f hokcp }o `kwcu} }o eohc }obc}fct r`}f ycoyjc rfo
eak ys} }fa} hokcp `k}o ytomse}`wc suc+
]fc tcja}`okuf`y dc}rcck u}oel hatlc}u akm haetoceokoh`e btor}f fau dcck }fc usdnce}
og kshctosu mcda}cu+ Ceokoh`u}u* akajpu}u* akm g`kake`aj yoj`ephalctu fawc eokmse}cm a
yjc}fota og u}sm`cu ok }fc usdnce} ds} ko}f`kb usdu}ak}`aj fau dcck eokejsmcm au pc}+
Hou} hatlc} yat}`e`yak}u }ajl og ceokoh`e gskmahck}aju akm uap }fa} au jokb au }fc pcatuog skua}`ug`cm mchakm `k }fc eosk}tp atc u}`jj }fctc* }fc btor}f u}otp r`jj eok}`ksc+
Forcwct* `} `u ajuo a lkork gae} }fa} u}oel hatlc}u mo ko} tcae} }o ect}a`k kcru a} ajj* rf`jc
tcae}`kb r`jmjp cwck }o uohc tshotu+ Ustcjp* ajj }fouc uceokm(dp(uceokm howchck}u
eakko} dc daucm ok ceokoh`e gskmahck}aju+
@kmccm* }fc cvyokck}`aj t`uc og }fc UCKUCV ajuo eottcuyokmu }o okc og }fc hou} uyce}aesjat
yct`omu og btor}f `k }fc ceokohp &rfck }fc eosk}tp r`}kcuucm a EABT og 6+7# got }ftcc
eokuces}`wc pcatu)+ Hou} uce}otu* cvecy} abt`esj}stc* fawc r`}kcuucm adowc awctabc btor}f+
Uohc akajpu}u dceahc eokectkcm ados} a yt`ec dsddjc dc`kb etca}cm `k }fc u}oel hatlc}u+A g`kake`aj dsddjc at`ucu rfck }fc hatlc} yt`ecu atc ko} tcgjce}`wc og }fc ae}saj tcaj`}p+
Cvsdctakec `k }fc u}oel hatlc} rf`ef `u ko} daucm ok ceokoh`e gskmahck}aju* ds} ok
usyyot} gtoh uycesja}otu* `u j`lcjp }o dc `tta}`okaj+
]fc auu`bkhck} mcaju r`}f akajp~`kb }fc `hyae} og ceokoh`e gskmahck}aju ok }fc U}oel
hatlc}u+
Got }fc odnce}`wc* }fc haetoceokoh`e gae}otu eoku`mctcm atc>
1+ @hyae} og BMY og }fc eosk}tp ok }fc u}oel hatlc}u
4+ @hyae} og Gotc`bk @ku}`}s}`okaj @kwcu}otu &G@@u) ok }fc @km`ak G`kake`aj Hatlc}u*
`kejsm`kb }fc U}oel hatlc}* akm for }f`u fo} hokcp}stkcm os} }o dc }fc eosk}tpu
d`bbcu} goc `k }`hcu og g`kake`aj et`u`u
8/14/2019 Economic Fundamentals and the Stock Market
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Eottcja}`oku
1 +6=9..
+ +999
=9 =9
+6=9.. 1
+999 +
=9 =9
Ycatuok Eottcja}`ok
Ub+ &4(}a`jcm)
K
Ycatuok Eottcja}`ok
Ub+ &4(}a`jcm)
K
BMY
DUC
BMY DUC
Eottcja}`ok u u `bkg `eak} a} }fc 9+91 jcwcj..+
EOTTCJA]@OK DC]RCCK BMY AKM UCKUCV
]fc gojjor`kb u}a}`u}`eaj akajpucu mcaj r`}f cu}adj`uf`kb a tcja}`okuf`y dc}rcck @km`au BMY
akm }fc DUC UCKUCV akm oductw`kb `g }fctc cv`u} usdu}ak}`aj eottcja}`ok dc}rcck }fc }ro
owct a yct`om og 19 pcatu+
Hc}fomojobp>
1+ ]fc u}a}`u}`eaj eottcja}`ok dc}rcck }fc UCKUCV akm }fc BMY &eoku}ak} yt`ecu* dauc
1000(99) og @km`a `u eajesja}cm
4+ ]fc yct`om og }fc u}smp `u gtoh }fc g`tu} qsat}ct og GP 1000(99 }o }fc jau} qsat}ct og
GP 4996(90 &19 pcatu)
5+ @k otmct }o halc }fc UCKUCV eohyatadjc r`}f qsat}ctjp BMY* qsat}ctjp awctabcu og
}fc UCKUCV atc }alck
=+ ]fc akksaj eottcja}`oku dc}rcck BMY akm UCKUCV atc ajuo eajesja}cm3+ ]fc = qsat}ctu how`kb awctabcu og }fc UCKUCV akm BMY atc eajesja}cm
7+ ]fc tcbtcuu`ok homcj dc}rcck UCKUCV akm BMY `u ajuo od}a`kcm &Mcyckmck}
wat`adjc Uckucv< @kmcyckmck} Wat`adjc ( BMY)
]fc gojjor`kb atc }fc oductwa}`oku>
U}cy 1> U}a}`u}`eaj eottcja}`ok dc}rcck }fc UCKUCV akm }fc BMY &eoku}ak} yt`ecu* dauc
1000(99) og @km`a
Yct`om og }fc U}smp> Q1 GP 1000(99 }o Q= GP 4996(90
]fc eottcja}`ok u 9+6=9
]f`u `u ost g`tu} j`klabc+ &TcgctAkkcvstc A got ma}a)
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U}cy 4>= qsat}ctu how`kb awctabc og UCKUCV akm BMY
U}cy5> Akksaj eottcja}`oku og BMY akm UCKUCV
Gtoh }fc gojjor`kb btayfu* `}
eak dc oductwcm }fa} BMY akmUCKUCV ufor a f`bf mcbtcc og
eottcja}`ok dc}rcck }fc yct`om
4994(95 akm 4997(92+
Forcwct* `g rc akajp~c }fc ma}a
hotc mccyjp* pcat(ok(pcat
cvah`ka}`ok b`wcu a m`ggctck}
y`e}stc+ ]fc os}eohc og }f`u
cvah`ka}`ok uforu }fa} }fosbf
}fc tcaj BMY au ufork a u}camp
btor}f owct }fc yct`om og
u}smp* DUC UCKUCV fau dcck
wctp woja}`jc mst`kb }fc ck}`tc
yct`om+ Ok pcat(ok(pcat dau`u* }fctc
ucchu }o dc ko upke dc}rcck }fc
}ro gae}otu+
&TcgctAkkcvstc D got ma}a)
8/14/2019 Economic Fundamentals and the Stock Market
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Tcbtcuu`ok Homcj>
@} `u oductwcm }fa} }fc T(uqsatc wajsc og }fc homcj `u +297 r`}f aeecy}adjc }(wajscu+ ]fc
homcj cu}adj`ufcu }fc tojc og gskmahck}aju `k }cthu og qsat}ctjp BMY og }fc eosk}tp akm
}fc u}oel hatlc}+ Gtoh }fc homcj* rc ucc }fa} }fc dc}a og }fc tcbtcuu`ok homcj `u 9+6=9+
usef a f`bf you`}`wc wajsc og dc}a `km`ea}cu u}tokb you`}`wc ucku`}`w`}p dc}rcck }fc UCKUCV
akm }fc BMY+
Homcj Ushhatp
+6=9a +297 +706 4365+1=066
Homcj
1
T T Uqsatc
Amnsu}cm
T Uqsatc
U}m+ Cttot og
}fc Cu}ha}c
Ytcm`e}otu> &Eoku}ak})* BMYa+
AKOWAd
7+90C,96 1 7966193=9+1 01+4=9 +999a
4+3=C,96 56 7724775+467
6+74C,96 50
Tcbtcuu`ok
Tcu`msaj
]o}aj
Homcj
1
Ush og
Uqsatcu mg Hcak Uqsatc G U`b+
Ytcm`e}otu> &Eoku}ak})* BMYa+
Mcyckmck} Wat`adjc> DUCd+
Eocgg`e`ck}ua
(0760+590 16=0+096 (3+456 +999
4+6=2C(94 +995 +6=9 0+334 +999
&Eoku}ak})
BMY
Homcj1
D U}m+ Cttot
Sku}akmatm`~cm
Eocgg`e `ck}u
Dc}a
U}akmatm`~cm
Eocgg`e`ck}u
} U`b+
Mcyckmck} Wat`adjc> DUCa+
8/14/2019 Economic Fundamentals and the Stock Market
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Mcej`kc`k TD@u
Gotcv Tcuctwcu
Mcytce`a}`ok og
}fc Tsycc
Mcej`kc `k U}oel
Hatlc} @km`ecu
]fc G`kake`aj Et`u`u akm @km`au G`kake`aj Hatlc}u>
Mcuy`}c }fc wak`uf`kb gotc`bk `ku}`}s}`okaj `kwcu}otu &G@@u)* }fc @km`ak hatlc}u tcha`kcm
tcu`j`ck} akm u}apcm agjoa}+ @kwcu}otu uck}`hck}u fawc dcck u`bk`g`eak}jp `hyae}cm dp }fc
SU g`kake`aj et`u`u+ ]fc }ckmckep og `kwcu}otu }o r`}fmtar gtoh t`ulp hatlc}u fau tcusj}cm
`k u`bk`g`eak} eay`}aj os}gjoru }fa} fawc jcm }o a j`qs`m`}p etskef ys}}`kb ytcuustc ok }fc
@km`ak u}oel hatlc}+
]fc @km`ak ceokohp eok}`kscu }o ufor boom fcaj}f dceasuc og
}fc u}tckb}f og `}u mohcu}`e mt`wctu* j`lc `kgtau}tse}stc ytonce}u*
UHC &uhajj akm hcm`sh ck}ctyt`ucu) uce}ot cvyot}u akm boom
p`cjm`kb gtoh }fc abt`esj}staj uce}ot+
]fc easuc dcf`km SU ceokohp mcdaejc `u }fa} }fc SU `kwcu}hck}
daklu atc cv}tchcjp owct jcwctabcm akm uojcjp mcyckmck} ok
rfojc uajc g`kakecu+ ]f`u jcm }o }fc`t mch`uc+ Ds} usef `u ko} }fc
eauc r`}f @km`ak Daklu+ ]fc eohhok haku mcyou`}u atc hotc
`k @km`a akm }fcp fawc }fc }tsu} ok }fc Daklu* dceasuc ajj hou}
ajj }fc Daklu atc ka}`okaj`~cm akm }fc mcyou`}otu `k}ctcu} `u
f`bfjp yto}ce}cm dp Bowctkhck} og @km`a+
@k }fc SU* }fc `kwcu}hck} daklu atc mcyckmck} ok `ku}`}s}`okaj `kwcu}otu gskmu+ ]fcuc
`kwcu}hck}u atc f`bfjp woja}`jc akm ajrapu ucatef got f`bf tc}stku ok }fc`t mcyou`}u+ ]fcp
jool got Mchakm(daucm `kwcu}hck}u akm ko} }`hc(daucm `kwcu}hck}u+ ]fctcgotc* rfckcwct
}fc tc}stku gtoh okc hatlc} u}at} m`yy`kb* }fcp howc }fc`t `kwcu}hck} }o tc(`kwcu} `k }fouc
hatlc}u rf`ef rosjm oggct a dc}}ct tc}stk* ot }alc a mcgcku`wc u}akec sk}`j }fc hatlc}
tcba`ku hohck}sh+
Mohcu}`e dakl`kb `k @km`a `u bckctajjp ucestc* cuyce`ajjp dceasuc ka}`okaj`~cm dakl`kb
tcha`ku a} }fc eotc og }fc upu}ch+ Cwck uo* }fctc cv`u} u`bku og gtab`j`}p akm `kamcqsaep
r`}f`k }fc dakl`kb uce}ot+ ]fc cggce}u og }fc bjodaj et`u`u fawc m`tce}jp `hyae}cm uohc
`hyot}ak} haetoceokoh`e wat`adjcu+ ]ftcc usef `km`ea}otu u}akm os} `k }cthu og }fc`t
usmmck mc}ct`ota}`ok u`kec }fc h`mmjc og jau} pcat>
&`) Mcej`kc `k }fc gotc`bk cvefakbc tcuctwcu fcjm dp }fc Tcuctwc Dakl og @km`a
&``) Gajj `k }fc cv}ctkaj wajsc og }fc tsycc* cuyce`ajjp w`u((w`u }fc SU mojjat
&```) Mcej`kc `k }fc u}oel hatlc} `km`ecu
Hcaustcu }alck dp }fc TD@ }o u}oy mcytce`a}`ok og }fc Tsycc jcm }o a u}ccy mcej`kc `k `}u
gotc`bk cvefakbc tcuctwcu+ Gae}otu rf`ef ajuo eok}t`ds}cm }o }fc mcej`kc rctc }fc
tcwajsa}`ok `k gotc`bk esttcke`cu akm jatbc ueajc ysjjos} dp gotc`bk `ku}`}s}`okaj `kwcu}otu+
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G`bstc 1 uforu for }fc gotc`bk
cvefakbc tcuctwcu* rf`ef fam
dcck `ketcau`kb u}cam`jp owct }fc
yau} gcr pcatu* u}at}cm mcej`k`kb
ag}ct Nskc 4996+ Ko} }fa} }fc
catj`ct ds`jm(sy og tcuctwcu
tcgjce}cm akp btca}
haetoceokoh`e u}tckb}f* u`kec
skj`lc Ef`ka `} rau ko} daucm ok
esttck} aeeosk} ustyjsucu+
@ku}cam* }fc @km`ak ceokohp
cvyct`ckecm ak `kgjor og fo}
hokcp* cuyce`ajjp `k }fc goth og
yot}goj`o eay`}aj `kwcu}hck} og G@@+
Ds} }fa} howchck} og G@@u rau `k
}stk tcja}cm }o }fc usmmck eojjayuc
og }fc tsycc* ufork `k G`bstc 4+
Catjp `k Hatef 4990 }fc tsycc cwck
dtcaefcm }fc j`kc og Tu 31 yct mojjat+
]fctc atc }fouc rfo atbsc }fa} }f`u
mcytce`a}`ok `u you`}`wc u`kec `} r`jj
fcjy cvyot}u* ds} eokm`}`oku
ytcwa`j`kb `k }fc rotjm }tamc
hatlc}* r`}f gajj`kb cvyot} wojshcu
akm wajscu* mocu ko} b`wc t`uc }o
hsef oy}`h`uh `k }fa} eok}cv}+
@km`a esttck}jp fau a esttck} aeeosk} mcg`e`}* `kejsm`kb a jatbc }tamc mcg`e`} akm ajuo qs`}c
u`bk`g`eak} gae}ot yaphck}u adtoam+ ]fc gajj`kb tsycc `hyj`cu t`u`kb gae}ot yaphck}u &usef
au mcd} tcyaphck} akm ytog`} tcya}t`a}`ok) `k tsycc }cthu* rf`ef `u ko} boom kcru got
hakp eohyak`cu got }fc dajakec og yaphck}u+
Auuoe`a}cm r`}f ajj }f`u `u }fc
cw`mckec og gajj`kb dsu`kcuueokg`mckec cvytcuucm `k }fc u}oel
hatlc} `km`ea}otu+ ]fc Uckucv
&G`bstc 5) fam tcaefcm
f`u}ot`eajjp f`bf jcwcju `k }fc catjp
yat} og 4996* eayy`kb ak ajhou}
fpu}ct`eaj t`uc owct }fc ytcw`osu
G`bstc 1> Gotc`bk Cvefakbc Tcuctwcu fcjm dp }fc TD@+Uostec> ]fc F`kms Dsu`kcuuJ`kc
G`bstc 4> Tsyccu yct SU Mojjat< Uostec> ]fc F`kms Dsu`kcuuJ`kc
G`bstc 5> Uckucv Ma`jp Howchck}u< Uostec> ]fc F`kms Dsu`kcuuJ`kc
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}ftcc pcatu `k rf`ef `} hotc }fak }t`yjcm `k wajsc+ Ds} `} fau dcck yjshhc}`kb u`kec }fck*
r`}f f`bf woja}`j`}p atoskm ak owctajj mcej`k`kb }tckm usef }fa} `}u jcwcju `k catjp Hatef
rctc dcjor }fc jcwcju a}}a`kcm `k Mcechdct 4993+
Tojc og Gotc`bk @kwcu}otu>
G`bstc = }taelu }fc efakbcu `k
}o}aj gotc`bk `kwcu}hck}* uyj`} sy
`k}o m`tce} `kwcu}hck} akm
yot}goj`o `kwcu}hck}* owct a
yct`om u`kec Ayt`j 4992+ @} `u
cw`mck} }fa} do}f fawc ufork a
}tckm og `ketcauc gojjorcm dp
mcej`kc+ GM@ fau dcck hotc u}adjc
r`}f tcja}`wcjp homcta}c
gjse}sa}`oku &cwck }fosbf `} mocu
`kejsmc uohc yot}goj`o(}pyc`kwcu}hck}u }fa} bc} ea}cbot`~cm
au GM@)+ @} ycalcm `k Gcdtsatp
4996 akm }fctcag}ct `} fau dcck eoh`kb mork ds} `u u}`jj you`}`wc+
Yot}goj`o `kwcu}hck} fau dcck cv}tchcjp woja}`jc akm jatbcjp kcba}`wc &`km`ea}`kb kc}
os}gjoru) u`kec }fc dcb`kk`kb og
4996* akm }f`u fau moh`ka}cm }fc
owctajj gotc`bk `kwcu}hck} }tckm+
Au a tcusj}* au `u cw`mck} gtoh
G`bstc 3* }fc eshsja}`wc wajsc og
u}oel og @km`ak cqs`}p fcjm dp G@@u
gcjj qs`}c ufatyjp* dp 4=# dc}rcck
Hap 4996 akm Gcdtsatp 4990+
]f`u `u ko} j`lcjp }o dc msc }o akp
mtaha}`eajjp efakbcm `kwcu}ot
yctecy}`oku og }fc @km`ak
ceokohp* u`kec `g akp}f`kb BMY
btor}f ytouyce}u `k @km`a tcha`k
uohcrfa} f`bfct }fak `k hou} o}fct mcwcjoycm ot chctb`kb hatlc}u+ Ta}fct* `} `u dceasucyot}goj`o `kwcu}otu fawc dcck tcya}t`a}`kb eay`}aj dael }o }fc SU akm o}fct Kot}fctk
hatlc}u+
]f`u tcgjce}u ko} uo hsef au a gj`bf} }o uagc}p &got ejcatjp SU ucest`}`cu atc ko} uagc akphotc
c`}fct) au }fc kccm }o eowct jouucu }fa} fawc dcck `kesttcm `k usd(yt`hc hot}babcu akm
G`bstc => Gotc`bk @kwcu}hck}< Uostec> ]fc F`kms Dsu`kcuuJ`kc
G`bstc 3> Eshsja}`wc G@@ @kwcu}hck}u `k Cqs`}p< Uostec> ]fc F`kmsDsu`kcuuJ`kc
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o}fct auuc} hatlc}u `k }fc Kot}f* akm }o ckustc j`qs`m`}p got }takuae}`oku au }fc etcm`}
etskef dcbak }o d`}c+
Rfa}cwct }fc easucu* }fc `hyae} ok }fc mohcu}`e u}oel hatlc} fau dcck ufaty akm m`tce}+
U`kec }fc @km`ak u}oel hatlc} `u u}`jj tcja}`wcjp ufajjor* akm G@@ ae}`w`}`cu yjap a
m`uytoyot}`oka}cjp ufaty tojc `k mc}cth`k`kb }fc howchck} og }fc `km`ecu* `} `u ko}ustyt`u`kb }fa} }f`u gjor fau dcck auuoe`a}cm r`}f }fc owctajj mcej`kc `k u}oel hatlc}
wajsa}`oku+
Au G`bstc 7 uforu* }fc Uckucv
fau howcm bckctajjp `k }fc uahc
m`tce}`ok au kc} G@@ `kgjoru+ @k
gae}* howchck}u `k }fc ja}}ct
fawc dcck hsef ufatyct akmhotc woja}`jc* usbbcu}`kb }fa}
mohcu}`e `kwcu}otu fawc yjapcm a
hotc u}ad`j`~`kb tojc owct }f`u
yct`om+
Owctajj gotc`bk `kwcu}hck} gjoru
&`kejsm`kb do}f G@@ akm m`tce}
`kwcu}hck}) fawc ajuo yjapcm a tojc
`k mc}cth`k`kb }fc jcwcj og cv}ctkaj
tcuctwcu+ G`bstc 2 uforu }fc
ya}}ctk `k abbtcba}c kc} gotc`bk
`kwcu}hck} akm efakbc `k tcuctwcu
u`kec Ayt`j 4992+
Okec aba`k* }fc }ro howc }obc}fct+
Forcwct* `k }f`u eauc* gotc`bk
`kwcu}hck} fau dcck jcuu woja}`jc
}fak }fc efakbc `k tcuctwcu*
usbbcu}`kb }fa} o}fct eohyokck}u
og }fc dajakec og yaphck}u fawc
G`bstc 7> G@@u akm }fc U}oel Hatlc}< Uostec> ]fc F`kms Dsu`kcuuJ`kc
G`bstc 2> Gotc`bk @kwcu}hck} akm Efakbc `k Tcuctwcu< Uostec> ]fcF`kms Dsu`kcuuJ`kc
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dcck `hyot}ak} au rcjj+ ]fc efakbcu `k cv}ctkaj eohhcte`aj dottor`kb atc j`lcjp }o dc
u`bk`g`eak}+
@k amm`}`ok* }fc youu`d`j`}`cu og mohcu}`e `kwcu}otu how`kb }fc`t gskmu os} ufosjm ko} dc
skmctcu}`ha}cm+ ]fc tceck}jp j`dctaj`~cm tsjcu got eay`}aj os}gjor dp mohcu}`e tcu`mck}u
fawc jcm }o os}gjoru }fa} atc ko} `ku`bk`g`eak}* cwck `g u}`jj tcja}`wcjp uhajj+
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uftamfa+m`rakIbha`j+eoh
EOKEJSU@OK
@g rc jool a} }fc }tckm* u}oel hatlc}u atc ko} ajrapu bs`mcm dp gskmahck}aju ds} ajuo dp
uck}`hck}u+ Got `ku}akec* jorct`kb og `k}ctcu} ta}cu dp }fc TD@ }py`eajjp fau ak `hyae} ok
}fc ceokohp r`}f a jab+ Ds} }fc u`bkaj }fa} }fc TD@ `u tcmse`kb `k}ctcu} ta}cu hap ytoy sy
u}oel hatlc}u `hhcm`a}cjp akm u}oel yt`ecu hap tcae} hsef gau}ct+
Forcwct* `k }fc ytcuck} yct`om }fctc `u a efakbc `k }fc }tckm* msc }o }fc gae} }fa} @km`ak
ceokohp `u kor hotc `k}cbta}cm r`}f bjodaj rotjm }fak dcgotc+ A} rotjmr`mc jcwcj eay`}aj
hatlc}u cw`kec a}}t`ds}cu og yctgce} hatlc} r`}f ko ot aeecy}adjc ck}tp datt`ctu* jatbc
kshdct og dspctu akm ucjjctu* aduckec og* ot wctp jor* }takuae}`ok eou}u* }av yat`}p akm gtcc
}tam`kb+
]o a}}tae} `k}ctka}`okaj `kwcu}hck}u* eosk}t`cu eohyc}c r`}f caef o}fct akm ytoho}c }fc`t
eay`}aj hatlc}u r`}f uawwp uoyu akm yoj`ep akkoskechck}u+ Ko homctk ceokohp eak cv`u}
r`}fos} ak cgg`e`ck} eay`}aj hatlc}+ ]f`u `u rfa} fau a}}tae}cm `k}ctka}`okaj `kwcu}otu* rfo
`k tceck} pcatu fawc hamc @km`a }fc`t gawot`}c mcu}`ka}`ok+ U`kec ost hatlc}u atc kor
bjodajjp `k}cbta}cm* `g rc jool a} tceck} }tckmu* got `ku}akec* rfck @@Y kshdctu rctc
you`}`wc* u}`jj rc rctc skadjc }o j`g} }fc hatlc}u+ Forcwct* hou} og }fc }`hcu rc bc} }o fcat
}fa} hatlc}u atc etauf`kb msc }o rcal bjodaj escu* ot ak skect}a`k cwck} a} `k}ctka}`okaj
jcwcj fau fam ak cggce} ok ost hatlc}u+
]fc etsv og }fc `uusc `u }fa} ak ceokohp bocu }ftosbf dsu`kcuu epejcu og tceowctp* dooh*
ujormork akm tcecuu`ok+ U}oel hatlc} ajuo howcu ok u`h`jat ya}}ctk+ Got `ku}akec `g @km`ak
BMY btoru a} 19 ycteck} `k okc pcat* }fc UCKUCV hap ko} ba`k u`h`jat ycteck}abc mst`kb
}fc uahc pcat+ Forcwct* }fc tcja}`okuf`y hap fojm }tsc owct }fc jokbct(}cth+ @} hap dc
u}a}cm }fa} }fc u}a}c og }fc ceokohp fau a dcat`kb ok }fc ufatc yt`ecu ds} }fc fcaj}f og }fc
u}oel hatlc} `k }fc uckuc og a t`u`kb ufatc yt`ec `kmcv `u ko} tcgjce}`wc og ak `hytowchck}
`k }fc fcaj}f og }fc ceokohp+
Ushh`kb sy }fc dau`e ystyouc og ajj u}sm`cu mokc `u }o g`km os} tcja}`oku dc}rcck ceokoh`e
btor}f akm u}oel hatlc}u+ ]fosbf `} eak} dc kcbjce}cm }fa} u}oel hatlc} m`tce}`oku atc
daucm ok gskmahck}aju `k }fc jokb(}cth* forcwct* }fcuc auushy}`oku hap }stk os} }o dc
makbctosu got `kwcu}otu `k ufot}(}cth+ ]fctcgotc* hou} akajpu}u rosjm amw`ec su }o bo got`kwcu}hck} `k u}oelu r`}f a jokb(}cth yctuyce}`wc `k h`km
8/14/2019 Economic Fundamentals and the Stock Market
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uftamfa+m`rakIbha`j+eoh
TCGCTCKECU
1+ Bjodaj Et`u`u akm @km`ak G`kakec* E+Y+Efakmtauclfat akm Napa}` Bfouf* ]fc F`kms
Dsu`kcuuJ`kc
4+ Bjodaj Et`u`u Kcru* rrr+bjodajet`u`ukcru+eoh
5+ rrr+td`+otb U}a}`u}`eu ok @km`ak Ceokohp Akksaj Ysdj`ea}`oku
=+ DUC @km`a Rcdu`}c F`u}ot`eaj Yt`ecu og UCKUCV
3+ ]fc Tcuctwc Dakl og @km`a Ytcuu Tcjcaucu* Fakmdool og U}a}`u}`eu< Uyce`aj Tcyot}u
7+ H`k`u}tp og Eohhsk`ea}`oku akm @kgotha}`ok ]cefkojobp U}a}`u}`eu
8/14/2019 Economic Fundamentals and the Stock Market
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uftamfa+m`rakIbha`j+eoh
Akkcvstc A
Pcat BMY &Tu etotc) BMY = QSAT]CTU"
HOW@KB AWCTABC
DUC UCKUCV =
HOK]F AWCTABC
DUC UCKUCV =
QSAT]CTU" HOW@KB
AWCTABC
00(99 Q1 =41203 ==7751 9 =715+72=172
Q4 5077=7 =34911+3 =25=+00 =61=+40=172
Q5 =22223 =36714+43 =709+675555 =291+123655
Q= =09596 =75603+3 3416+915555 =391+6623
99(91 Q1 ==5512 =77923 =715+51 =414+440172
Q4 =459=0 =21150+43 =464+317772 50=4+660172
Q5 =06096 =27293+43 5605+21 573=+=143
Q= =00947 =63140+23 =930+56 5=23+041772
91(94 Q1 =7532= =05131+23 5353+03 5544+0723
Q4 ==3515 =00955+23 5146+71 54=6+940172
Q5 354797 393992 5120+2=7772 5440+45
Q= 35111= 392411+23 5==2+375555 5459+326555
94(95 Q1 =62194 314924+23 5457+107772 5172+439655
Q4 =70497 3167==+23 5935+=15555 5129+3923
Q5 3=1=43 340449+23 5163+1= 5==6+953655
Q= 339336 3==347+3 510=+435555 5072+756555
95(9= Q1 315509 333760+23 54=0+445555 =361+60
Q4 311319 3775=3+43 =175+347772 3952+906555
Q5 7947=6 323=29+43 3475+33 3543+939655
Q= 303411 3652== 3731+47 3331+799655
9=(93 Q1 337914 302907+3 3929+937772 3263+729655
Q4 3=6919 790342+23 3513+557772 7109+197772
Q5 7532=5 741=76 7170+23 7672+33
Q= 7=6741 757219+23 7362+3= 2=06+5723
93(97 Q1 793252 735411+23 7762+6 6=64+545555
Q4 303221 772766+23 6943+11 03=6+760172
Q5 70721= 76472=+43 6705+94 19=39+34=12
Q= 21=743 706640 19345+57555 117=2+70365
97(92 Q1 7757=3 217922+43 19035+47555 14536+71=12
Q4 733215 251=95+43 11754+=3 15490+4=555
Q5 271555 2=7241 15=61+29772 1=51=+34172
Q= 265716 275334+3 15572+95772 13091+==43
92(96 Q1 24=0=0 269213+3 1=533+26 17200+99365
Q4 21706= 2034=1+43 17935+37555 121=9+=5=12
Q5 646730 690=12 10640+50 17796+27012
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uftamfa+m`rakIbha`j+eoh
Q= 634429 649796+23 17032+40 1=946+2743
96(90 Q1 265934 655424+43 13241+=0555 1414=+6943
Q4 225762 639914+5555 15047+09555 19043+09337
Q5 625=47 666123 0390+575555 0=43+=97772
Q= 09404= 09404= 05=1+=3 05=1+=3
8/14/2019 Economic Fundamentals and the Stock Market
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uftamfa+m`rakIbha`j+eoh
AKKCVSTC D
Pcat Eottcja}`ok dc}rcck
BMY akm Uckucv
U`b &}ro }a`jcm)
00(99 9+3=5 9+=32
99(91 (9+274 9+456
4991(94 9+922 9+045
4994(95 9+=02 9+395
4995(9= 9+014 9+966
499=(93 9+070 9+951
4993(97 9+6= 9+17
4997(92 9+0=6 9+934
4992(96 9+21 9+40
4996(90 (9+0=3 9+933