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HERIOT-WATT UNIVERSITY
SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND PHYSICAL SCIENCES
MSC IN ENERGY / RENEWABLE ENERGY ENGINEERING
PROJECT PORTFOLIO
Title: EVALUATION OF EMBEDDED POWER GENERATION IN NIGERIA
Author: OLUWOLE ABDUL-JELIL ADEBANJI
Registration Number: 091607267
Date: 15TH AUGUST, 2011.
Supervisor: Dr. MOUNIF ABDALLAH
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DECLARATION OF AUTHORSHIP
I, Oluwole Abdul-jelil Adebanji (091607267) confirm that the
Project Proposal entitled
EVALUATION OF EMBEDDED POWER GENERATION IN NIGERIA is part of my
assessment
for the Critical Analysis and Research Preparation Module
I declare that the report is my own work. I have not copied
other material verbatim except
in explicit quotes, and I have identified the sources of the
material clearly.
(Signature) (Place and Date)
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I give glory to GOD almighty for good health and wisdom since
the start of my
academic year till date, my profound gratitude also goes to my
teachers and lecturers
within and outside my study department for their enormous
support. Also I will like to
give honour to Mr. Kamal Habib and Mr. Olubunmi Obajuluwa for
the necessary documents
and references, Miss Nonye for her relentless support, Miss
Rukayat Balogun and Miss
Tosin Nurudeen who both showed me love, Miss Tosin Onabanjo for
her numerous
corrections, Mr. Dipo Adewale (Dr. zaga) for topic analysis, Mr.
kamaldeen Oluwole for
finances and support, Mr. Abubakre Bakare my reference
coordinator, Dr. Mounif
Abdallah, for supervising this project and guiding me through,
and others to whom I have
not acknowledged in here, I appreciate your prints in my life
and wish you the very best in
your endeavour.
My final and utmost gratitude goes to my parents, Chief Mr. and
Mrs. Oluwole, to
whom God have given the privilege to mould me up to this moment
and care fore me. I
really appreciate you both and Im no one without you. Thanks and
God bless.
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TABLES OF CONTENT
CHAPTER 1
1. Introduction 1
1.1. Background 2
1.2. Energy Resources in Nigeria 3
1.3. Literature Review 9
1.4. Aims and Objective 13
1.5. Overview of Dissertation 14
CHAPTER 2
2. Embedded Generation 15
2.1. Current Available Technologies in Nigeria 17
2.2. Recent Advancement, Research and Development 19
CHAPTER 3
3. Problems of Electricity in Nigeria 22
3.1. Generation-Supply Incapacity 22
3.2. National Policy 31
3.3. Management and Corruption Issues 32
3.4. Inaccurate Data 33
CHAPTER 4
4. Economic Analysis of Embedded Power Generation (EPG). 34
4.1. Emission 34
4.2. Cost of Technology 38
4.3. Technical and non-technical loses 42
4.4. Distribution and Adequacy 46
4.5. Efficiency (sustainability) 48
4.6. Environmental Impact 48
CHAPTER 5
5. Making it Happen 51
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5.1. Funding 51
5.2. Planning and Operation 53
5.3. Regulatory policies for EG 56
CHAPTER 6
6. Conclusion 59
6.1. Contribution to the Knowledge 60
6.2. Limitation to the Study 60
6.3. Future work 61
Appendix 62
References 69
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: The graphical representation of investment years in
the electricity industry
Figure 2: Electricity generation in Nigeria from 1970 2005
Figure 3: Transmission and Distribution in Nigeria
Figure 4: Electricity consumption in Nigeria by sectors
Figure 5: Relationship of generation, transmission,
distribution, and consumption pattern
in Nigeria
Figure 6: Costing per MWh of electricity produced from different
plant types ($/MWh)
Figure 7: Cost per kWh (Nigerian naira)
Figure 8: Comparison Revenue Sales between Both Concepts-CP and
EG
Figure 9: Relationship between functional economic
parameters
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Analysis of the Potential Energy Resources in
Nigeria
Table 2: Existing power generation capacity in Nigeria
Table 3: Emission conversion
Table 4: Cost comparison between CSP and EPG
Table 5: Technology costing per kWh
Table 6: Effect of transmission and distribution loses with
projection plan (central stations)
Table 7: Effect of transmission and distribution loses with
projection plan (Embedded
Generation)
Table 8: Comparison Revenue Sales between Both Concepts; CPS and
EPG
Table 9: Potential impacts for CPS and EPG
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DEFINATION OF TERMS
CP Central Plant
CPS Central Power Station
DOE Department of Energy
ECN Energy Commission of Nigeria
EG Embedded generation
EPG Embedded Power Generation
FCT Federal Capital Territory
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
IPP Independent Power Producers
NARUC (US) National Association of Regulatory Utility
Commission
NERC National Electricity Regulatory Commission
NEPA National Electric Power Authority
PHCN Power Holding Company of Nigeria
RT Renewable technology
WEM Wholesale Electricity Market
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ABSTRACT
Electricity Issues have become the headline problem affecting
growth within the Nigerian
economy over the last two decades. This has resulted in changes
citizenry believes on the
ability of the government to provide adequate supply of
electricity resulting in the nations
Self-power generation alternative. This dissertation focuses on
concept that could enhance
adequate supply considering the proposed plan from the Nigerian
Electricity Regulatory
Commission (NERC).
In particular, I analyzed the gap that exist between the present
generation capacity to its
present and future demands based on the population growth and
explained the potential
shortcomings in the electricity industry. I evaluate the present
concept of Central Power
Station (CPS) to promote an efficient and effective electricity
generation and supply to the
populace with reference to economic costing and environmental
consideration.
I explored the different potentials available for electricity
generation within the country
and established the need for policy changes to encourage
sustainability of energy
consumption and utilization. I find that, Embedded Power
Generation (EPG) could be a
practical solution to the problem of electricity shortages and
the integration of different
energy sources into electricity generation with respect to
population distribution in the
rural and sub-urban areas in Nigeria.
More broadly, this dissertation highlights the impact of the
present policies of the country
in displacing other energy sources and concentrating on
conventional sources-gas for
electricity generation. Because emission profile has not been
considered limited for energy
consumption in Africa, many present practices and projects
throughout the region are
implemented on the basis of need and not of environmental
concern. Likewise, if an
economic data management board is established with a goal of
making every Nigerian
count, the problem of projection and forecast on future needs
and analysis will gradually
become history.
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1. Introduction
Life is known to have a correlation between its energy
availability and consumption. The
pressure on the available energy resources due to an increase in
population of the world
over the years has resulted into a global issue across all
sectors which is seemingly
dependant on energy. This effect is universal and the cumulative
effect brought about by
the trending Global warming.
Nigeria is a country blessed with abundant energy resources with
a large proven reserve of
oil, gas and other renewable energy resources which can make the
country have excess
power production, but the growth of the industry still pose a
problem to the decision
makers an the populace. The energy sector which is the life of
every economy contributes
about 80% of the total income of the country mainly oil revenue.
This industry also account
for the water and air pollution-a threat in various parts of the
country.
The nation accommodates over 150 million people with an average
demand of 20,000MW,
however its supply is below 4000MWe thus, a per-capita
consumption 128KWh/capita of
electricity [1]. The country is experiencing power poverty as,
over 70% of the nation lacks
constant electricity supply; this accounts for the rural and
rural-urban populace. This has
lead to a drag in the development of different sectors cutting
across, Agriculture, Education,
Technology, Health, Economics and Management, and also an
indirect impact on the
unemployment rate of the country. Over 60 million Nigerians now
uses generators to
generate electricity which increases the demand for conventional
oil and irrefutably
enhance global warming.
Environmental crises resulting from of increasing demand for
conventional fuel that
cumulatively have cumulatively lead to increased awareness of
global warming and recent
trends of sustainable power generation. This work focuses on the
ways of mitigating the
excessive use of conventional fuel for power generation and
increasing the adequacy of
electricity through sustainable means in generation,
transmission, distribution and
consumption.
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In view of this, the available resources in Nigeria will be
presented to analyze the sources of
the Nigerias problem as well as the parameters which have not
been considered in enabling
a developmental solution in the power sector.
1.1. Background
Nigeria is a country with over 150 million people with the
majority of the populace in the
rural area. It covers a geographical area of 356,667 sq. miles
with 98.6% of it being land (2).
From the Federal Government statistics, the nation is divided
into 36 states, a Federal
capital territory (FCT) and six geo-political zones which leave
Nigeria governance and
management issue in a complex situation. Just as power is
important to the global
economy, electricity plays important role in Nigeria throughout
the life and activities of its
people, with growing and important technological developments.
Electricity was first
generated in Lagos, Nigeria dating far back to 1896, 15 years
after it was introduced in
England. Since then, there have been series of legislative
changes to the control and
management of electricity production and distribution in Nigeria
(3),
Recently the economy of Nigeria has witnessed several drawbacks
due to the epileptic
power supply in the country despite the abundance of energy
resources. Electricity
production has been abundant in the country until the early
1980s when the power sector
experienced isolation with little or no infrastructural
development, as well as lack of
maintenance. The growing population also is of great concern as
this elevated the pressure
of the supply-demand structure that is recently experienced. In
2001, the installed capacity
of the nation drop to an unbearable 1,750MW from an initial
installed capacity 5,600MW
with only 24% of the generating unit operating, as compared to
its 6,000MW load demand
(4).
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1.2. Energy Resources in Nigeria
Nigeria is the heart of Africa when it comes to energy
resources, and its reserve, together
with Libya accounts for two-third of Africas crude oil reserve.
It also has a huge gas
reserve and ranks second to Algeria (4). It has the greatest
percentage of Africas bitumen
and lignite reserve and this make her unmatchable with other
countries in the nation as
regards conventional energy sources. Below is a subjection of
various resources and their
measures in the country.
1.2.1. Natural Gas
In 2005, Nigerias proven natural gas reserves assessed at about
187.44 trillion standard
cubic feet, which is larger than its oil resources in terms of
energy. The discovery of gas was
as incidental as the discovery of oil in Nigeria and almost 75%
of the gas produced was
being spread throughout the country after its discovery.
Nevertheless, the spreading was
reduced to about 36% due to the harsh efforts made by the
government to monetize
natural gas. In the domestic sector, 80% of the energy source is
gotten from natural gas
which is mainly for power generation while the remaining 20% is
used in the industrial
sector. The probable lifespan of Nigerian crude oil is about 44
years, looking at the current
reserves, misuse and, production capacity which is at 2million
b/d productions. However,
for natural gas is about 88 years based on the 2005 production
rate of 5.84bscf/day (5).
1.2.2. Oil
In recent years, the advent of oil in Nigeria has been given the
upper hand to any other
source of energy, thus leading to its intense growth in the
country. In 1999, Nigeria had a
verified reserve of 25 billion barrels of mostly low sulphur
light crude, which considerably
increased to 34 billion barrels in 2004 and presently about 36.5
billion barrels (5). The
exploration of the reserves is a result of the aid of Joint
Venture operations, an alternative
funding scheme, new production sharing plan and the opening of
new frontier and
deepwater offshore blocks. Due to different oil potentials that
have been detected, it is
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forecasted that, reserves will reach about 68 billion barrels by
year 2030. Although oil
production has increased gradually in Nigeria in recent years,
this however depends on the
economics and geopolitics in other producing and consuming
countries. The average daily
production of crude in Nigeria is 4million barrels per day and
it is forecasted to increase to
5million barrels per day in year 2030. Nigeria has four
refineries in the downstream oil
sub-sector with a size of 445,000 barrels per day and 5001 km
network of pipeline from
the refineries to 22 oil depots (4).
1.2.3. Coal
This was first discovered in Nigeria in 1909 and mining began in
1916 with a recorded
output of 24,500 tons. Production rose to a peak of 905,000 tons
in 1958/59 with a
contribution of over 70% to commercial energy consumption in the
country. Available data
shows that, graded sub-bituminous coal occurs in about 22 coal
fields around the old 13
States of the Federation. The proven reserves in the country are
about 639 million tonnes
while the inferred reserves are about 2.74 billion tonnes. The
consumption has dropped
drastically with the discovery of crude oil in 1958 and the
general conversion of
mechanical engines to use oil. This dropped production to only
52,700 tonnes in 1983 and
contributed about 0.02% to commercial energy consumption in the
country in 2001.
1.2.4. Hydropower
Hydropower structure depends on the different energy levels of
water in a dam, lake or
reservoir and their discharged tail water level downstream.
Presently, the usage of
hydropower in the country is 29% of the total electrical power
supply. The first major
hydropower supply station in the country which is situated at
Kanji, Niger with capacity of
836MW. There are efforts to expand this to 1156MW. There is
another hydropower station
at Jebba, on the Niger with an installed capacity of 540MW. An
evaluation for rivers Benue,
Cross River (at Shiroro, Makurdi and Ikom), and Kaduna indicates
their total size to be
about 4,650MW. The estimated hydropower resource that is
potentially available for use in
Nigeria is 11,000MW. Small hydropower systems can be built in
all the parts of the country.
This will enable the potential energy in the large network of
rivers to be utilized and used
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for electrical energy, which will help disperse energy to
several parts of the rural
community.
1.2.5. Solar Radiation
Solar radiation is the radiant energy that is radiated from the
sun from a nuclear fusion
reaction that creates electromagnetic energy. The amount of
solar radiation in a specific
place is related to the solar energy potentials. Solar energy is
the most promising of the
renewable energy sources if we look at its unlimited radiation
of energy. The energy the
sun radiates is about 3.8 x 1023 kW per second. Research has
shown that solar energy
resource in Nigeria is fully available for use. Nigeria receives
5.08 x 1012 kWh of energy per
day from the sun. This amount of electrical energy is equivalent
to 4.66 million barrels of
oil per day (4).
1.2.6. Wind
Wind is associated with the movement of air masses caused
primarily by the differential
solar heating of the earths surface. This could be harnessed
with a wind turbine. Wind
energy has been used for centuries for domestic purposes such as
water pumping, milling
and grinding of grains. A study carried out on wind energy in
some states in Nigeria shows
that the annual wind speed ranges from 2.32 m/s to 3.89 m/s (6).
Consequently, efforts
have been directed greatly towards the use of wind power for the
generation of electricity.
Fast changes in technology has occurred and major wind powered
generating plants have
been installed in many places for easier access of generating
electricity.
1.2.7. Biomass
Biomass is the energy of biological systems generated from wood
and wastes. Biomass
energy is an indirect form of solar energy due to its generation
through photosynthesis.
The biomasses in Nigeria are wood biomass, residues and waste
(forestry, agriculture,
municipal and industrial), forage grasses and shrubs, and
aquatic biomass. Nigeria is using
80 million cubic meters (43.4 x 109 kg) of fuel wood yearly for
cooking and other domestic
uses (7).
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The potentials of energy resources in Nigeria are summarized in
Table 1 below which
shows the various resources, its reserve and its
utilization.
Table 1: Analysis of the Potential Energy Resources in Nigeria
(8)
S/
No
Resource Type Reserve
(Natural Units)
Production
Level
(Natural
Units)
Utilization
(Natural Units)
1 Crude Oil 36.22 billion
barrels
2.06 million
barrels/day
445,000
barrels/day
2 Natural Gas 187 trillion SCF 7.1 billion
SCF/day
3.4 billion SCF/day
3 Coal and lignite 2.734 billion
tones
insignificant Insignificant
4 Tar Sands 31 billion
barrels of oil
equivalent
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5 Large Hydropower 11,250 MW 1,938MW
(167.4 Million
MWh/day)
167.4 Million
MWh/day
6 Small Hydropower 3,500 MW 30 MW (2.6
million
MWh/day)
2.6 million
MWh/day
7 Solar Radiation 3.5-7.0
kWh/m2/day
(485.1 million
MWh/day using
0.1% Nigeria
land area)
Excess of
240kWp of
solar PV or
0.01 million
MWh/day
Excess of 0.01
million MWh/day
of solar PV
8 Wind (2-4)m/s @ 10m - -
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height
9 Biomass Fuel-wood 11million
hectares of
forest and
woodland
0.110 million
tonnes/day
0.120 million
tonnes/day
Animal
waste
245 million
assorted in 2001
0.781 million
tonnes of
waste/day in
2001
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Energy
Drops and
Agric
Residue
72 million
hectares of
Agric. land and
all waste lands
Excess of
0.256 million
tonnes of
assorted
crops
residues/day
in 1996
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10 Nuclear Element Not yet
quantified
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Table 1 shows that, resources remain abundant in Nigeria but the
lack of strategies,
techniques and investment to harness and utilize these resources
coupled with the right
institutional policies for a lawful and environmental production
has invariably caused it to
remain in its poor economic and infrastructural state. This
remains evident in the power
sector and all other sectors of the nation.
Electricity supply in Nigeria has been stable until the mid 90s
however, due to lack of
monitoring, maintenance, planning and investment in the power
sector for more than two
decades despite the increasing demand capacity for energy,
electricity in the nation and
other resources as a product of population growth vis-a-vis its
need for technological
advancement.
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The figure below shows the period of isolation in the sector
which cumulatively caused the
present problem of electricity drought. There have been drop in
investment from 1980 till
1983 where little investment was made into the sector by
increasing the capacity of the
hydroelectric plants which spanned another two years and then a
fluctuation in investment
throughout the military reign until the democratic regime where
investment consideration
were made and implemented in 2000.
Figure 1: The graphical representation of investment years in
the electricity industry
(9)
There has been lots of research related to the power industry in
Nigeria with the aim of
identifying the problems and proffering a solution. The effort
by different people is
presented in the literature review section and their relevance
to the present development is
summarized in relation to the need of this work.
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1.3. Literature Review
Several studies have been carried out in the past as regards
sustainability in electricity
generation. Dating far back as 1990, research in renewable
energy in Nigeria has
determined the potential of renewable energy sources available
in Nigeria. It is brought to
light that the most appraised research done in the area of
renewable energy in Nigeria is
dated far back as 1990. In view of this and other subsequent
research, the future still seem
bright and reliant on conventional fuel with its forecasted
rigid oil policy. In 2000, there was
appraisal of different research around the world on renewable
technology. Subsequently,
different observation and recommendation were made by different
vendors as regards the
potentials of resources available and the ways to which they
could be harnessed.
Ayodele [10] evaluated the electricity problems in Nigeria and
concluded that there is lack of
maintenance and that the electricity potential of the country is
a multiple of the present
demand which have still not been met. He further stressed that
there should be better
strategies to manage the present capacity before additional
implementation with regards to
the demand, He also recommended that there should be policy
regulations to maintain a
sustainable process of energy transmission that account for an
average loss of 40% and
admitted that the privatization program will enhance development
of the sector but there
should be greater chances given to indigenous investors. His
publication was appraised both
home and abroad, the power sector has been privatized and
several deregulation has been
done to enhance private generation of electricity for commercial
purposes but the
management problem still persist.
Sambo (11) evaluated alternative energy generation and concluded
that there has been lack
of finances to fast track the development, there is also lack of
adequate expertise and even
the available ones are not empowered as expertise are mostly
sourced from abroad. Others
include lack of awareness of renewable technologies,
intermittency of resources, thus
problems of energy storage and system management in periods of
no resources added to
the complexity of the problem. He recommended that, there should
be deregulation and
liberalization of the energy sector so as to give room for
appropriate tariffs which will boost
the competitiveness of the technology, intensify Research and
Development (R&D) in
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Renewable technology (RT) so as to reduce cost, enhance
development and sustenance of a
renewable energy database, and also encourage huge investment in
renewable sources from
the revenue of fossil resources. He has made a lot of
contribution to the development of RT
in recent times which lead to the establishment of Nigerian
Energy Commission, and his
research have been appraised in the power sectors, where some
have been implemented
and other are awaiting approval, majorly RT due to the lack of
favorable energy policy.
He also assessed the roles of energy in millennium development
goals and concluded that
(12), there is inability to pay for tariffs due to economic
poverty, inability of private sector
contribution due to unfriendly policies, unfriendly community
relation which incorporates
grievances in the public and debar implementation of
developmental process. He
recommended there should be privatization of the energy sector
to fund and strengthen it,
imploring diversified sources for energy generation and
intensified R&D into the problems
of energy generation and distribution.
National Stakeholders Forum on Rural Industrialization and
Development through
Renewable Energy Technologies [10] had also researched the
development through
renewable technologies and recommended that;
There should be an institutionalized energy policy
The total renewable energy potential of the country should be
analyzed and identify
local conditional priorities to different ecological zones
There should be a standard testing laboratory for renewable
technology to assure the
quality of products
There should be an integration to renewable energy by taking
global partnerships to
aid funding and growth
There should be an establishment of renewable energy funding
program like the one in
India, IREDA.
There should be a participatory approach from other successfully
developed project,
coordinator from other parts of the world to enable the
implementation, and public
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awareness programs to facilitate support from financiers,
decision makers and the
public.
Aliyu and Elegba (13). evaluated the prospect of hydropower
development for rural
applications in Nigeria and concluded that Integrating into
renewable energy has been a
problem due to; the technological incapability, high cost of
infrastructure, financial
constrain, low level of public awareness, and a general absence
of a comprehensive energy
policy. They also recommended that there should be an assessment
to determine the total
potential of renewable energy in Nigeria, encourage private
investors, and develop training
and testing centres for this purpose. Implementation of energy
conservation modules
should be introduced into the educational curriculum. Their
works is appraised and many
of their recommendation have been put into practice as renewable
technology is now
getting public awareness after a long time buy yet to have
recognition in the nations
supply.
Akinbami [14.] carried out a research on renewable energy
resources and technology in
Nigeria; he concluded that the future energy supply projected
using MARKAL would
provide a large scale linear optimization level as opposed to
the non-linear future models
of renewable energy. He also said that, due to the scale of
economy, large scale hydropower
will take the greatest share in commercial renewable technology
under CO2 emission
mitigation. He also suggested that there should be intensive
effort towards energy supply
system in the country to adequately and efficiently harness
renewable resources to enable
economic growth and development. This research did a lot of help
analyzing the possible
plan of an energy mix economy but it has not been
implemented.
Ojosu and Salawu, [6] evaluated the potentials of windmill
utilization according to end use
and concluded that there are good locations with great
potentials for energy generation
through wind power. This was a very good study to wind
potential, however limited to most
part of the country but till now, the applications have been
insignificant in all parts of the
country.
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Ojosu and Salawu, [7] carried out a research and estimated the
wind energy density from a
wind turbine at a height of 25m in different locations across
the country and proved the
potentials of generating electricity through wind energy as
shown in appendix VI. They
concluded that wind energy will help to substantiate the
electricity generation in the
country. There is however a limitation for large scale
implementation to this model, as cost
analysis and return on investment where not included in the
research.
Akinbami et al [15.] evaluated the waste produced in Nigeria
daily with their potentials for
biogas production. They concluded that, with intensified
urbanization and industrialization,
the municipal solid waste will continue to grow and this can
substantiate a production of 6.8
million m3 of biogas from fresh animal waste daily. This work
also provided an overview of
waste potential and energy generation from the waste but wasnt
able to statistically show
the daily volume of waste generation at different regions and
the biogas value of this waste.
SELF organization [16] researched the potentials of Photovoltaic
(PV) for distance villages
and showed that, the cost of PV electrification is less than
getting power from the national
grid due to the transmission distance to the villages from
sub-stations. They further showed
that PV require less operational expenses if adequate training
is given to monitoring
personnel. It can be the most reliable source of power due to;
the huge expenses of running
power generator, the availability of fuel at distant locations
and the fluctuating nature of
conventional fuel supply. They concluded that there should be
assistance from multinational
firms, non-governmental organization and government in order to
enable the same project
across other rural communities. This work is a tactical
development to the demand of a
rural area and it has the motive of making better living
standards for rural areas. This was
implemented and it worked perfectly. Works like this should be
done across other parts of
the country to enhance a significant impact of solar
technologies in the nation, this has been
able to accommodate the villagers basic needs but increase in
electricity demands will be a
detriment on the capacity of the solar PV.
Sambo [17] evaluated the challenges for a sustainable energy
production by using the
information sourced from International Energy Agency (IEA) to
stipulate the need for a
significant change on the energy production and concluded that,
there is high energy
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wastage in the country. The community relation problem in
Niger-delta is also a major
hindrance to development, the demand for power is growing while
supply is reducing due
to inefficient/old power plant. He recommended that, there
should be emulation of the
developed countries by having a national energy plan and energy
laws to enhance socio-
economic development.
Jekayinfa and Scholz [18.] carried out an assessment on the
potential availability of selected
residue from available energy crops for possible conversion into
renewable energy as
shown in appendix VII. It concluded that about 58 million tonnes
of residue were available
for use by 2004 which have the energy equivalent of 20.8 million
tonnes of oil. They also
projected the residue availability for 2010 to 80 million tonnes
and concluded that when
these residues are converted into usable energy, they could
supplement fossil energy by
80%. Their work was streamlined to energy crops but until now,
commercial
implementation has not been done to put the work into
practice.
All the above lead to the initiation of this work to delineate
the parameters for a sustainable
and effective electricity generation, correlate the
inter-dependency of all this parameters,
identify all the necessary changes to facilitate growth in this
sector and to cater for the
needs of the growing population with her industrial and
technological needs and provide a
recommendation
1.4. Aims and Objective
The aim of this project is the provision of adequate electricity
to enhance growth and
development across all sectors of the economy. The objective of
this research is in view
with the pressure on the nations needs for uninterrupted cheap
electricity supply to enable
the growth of industries, local businesses and a good
development across all sectors.
Analyze the present generation of electricity and compare with
the demand of the
nation
Analyze the various shortcomings of electricity poverty in
Nigeria in all the phases;
generation, transmission, distribution-sales and
consumption,
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Analyze the costing required to invest in the acute power
structure,
Discuss the ways of realizing a sustainable power generation
scheme to enhance
adequate supply with the available technologies.
Discuss the needs of mixed generation and the enabling
policies.
1.5. Overview of Dissertation
This chapter has been able to give an introduction and a purpose
which necessitated this
research. Chapter 2 will introduce the proposed concept of
Embedded Power generation
(EPG) and circumnavigate its operations. Chapter 3 will present
the methodology used in
this project and the result of the methodology. Chapter 4 will
present an economic analysis
of both conventional-Central Power Station and the EPG concept.
Chapters 5 will discuss
the necessary actions to be taken to achieve realities in the
proposed concept. Chapter 6
will round up the project with a conclusion and a
recommendation.
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24
2. EMBEDDED GENERATION
As earlier discussed, the increasing gap between supply and
demand continues to pose a
threat to the life of the sector and a great challenge to
Nigerians, as a whole. This threat has
increased the percentage of the population on self generation
using petrol and diesel
generators, all of which are very expensive and very harmful to
the environment.
Traditionally, electric systems have been built with the Central
Station Concept due to its
economies of scale in power generation and cost consideration.
The larger generators
produce electric energy at a fraction of the cost of running
smaller generators; the bigger it
is, the greater the economics of power production. In recent
years, for various reasons
encapsulated in the need for growth and developments, the
traditional economic margins
between the large and small units have virtually reduced
(19).
Embedded generation (EG) could also be termed as distributed
generation which involves
electricity generation through different sources, i.e; gas,
wind, biomass, oil, PV, small
hydropower, e.t.c. which is directly connected to medium voltage
distribution in a more
decentralized supply pattern to the consumers rather than been
on the transmission
network (grid). This generation makes it possible to incorporate
smaller plants of
generation capacity below 50MW directly into the distribution
network without connecting
to the grid.
EG, involves the use of small generators and storage power
system, located on the utility
system to provide adequate electricity according to demand and
specification. It is
constructed as stand-alone (isolated from the grid), and it is a
recent development to help
tackle the problem of power distribution and ease of
maintenance.
Chapter 1 has been able to analyze the potential of generating
electricity through the
various resources available in the country but until now, gas
has been the major source of
national generation. Historically, hydropower used to have the
larger take on the supply
network but many of the plant have been reported ineffective and
working below expected
capacity due to lack of maintenance.
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25
EG could be used by state or local government to generate
electricity for private or
commercial purpose, also by multinational companies and
Independent Power Producers
for industrial applications and commercial purpose respectively
due to its medium capacity.
This idea is urged by the need of adequate supply of electricity
which technically appears
too large for the public sector to handle.
EG could be classified into two major topics according to its
application;
Traditional (convention) power generation
Low head hydro
Combined cycle turbine
Combustion turbine
Diesel generators
Co-generation units
Renewable Energy power generation (future use)
Fuel cell
Hybrid system
Tidal power
Ocean gradient
Wind
Solar thermal
Biomass
Geothermal
Photovoltaics
The above classification has various relationships and
differences which make them fit for
Nigerian scenario. Both conventional and non-conventional could
be used for;
-
26
Standby or emergency power generation,
Independent Power Producers (IPP)
Hybrid systems,
Dispersed storage and generation,
Dispersed energy system, e.t.c.
2.1. Current Available Technologies in Nigeria
Commercial electricity in Nigeria has been generated using coal,
hydro and gas respectively
according to their age. The electricity produced has been
distributed unevenly amongst the
population and cities due to demands management and revenue
consideration. For most of
the populace who lives in the rural area, the available source
of energy to them is the
biomass and traditional lanterns. This reduces the chance for
developments and enhances a
vitalized environment for spreading of diseases as health
technology cant be positively
driven without electricity. The urban areas also lack adequate
and quality electricity supply
which aided the paralysis of several businesses and increased
the market value of various
commodities.
The existing technologies used for commercial deployment are
summarized in the table 2
below.
-
27
Table 2: Existing power generation capacity in Nigeria (20)
S/
N
Power station/
location
Plant
type
Year of
commissionin
g
Installed
capacity
(MW)
Installed
units
Units
available
1 Lagos station - Egbin Thermal 1984, 1987 1320 6 4
2 Sapele
station @
Ogorode, Delta
Thermal 1978 , 1990 1020 10 1
3 Egbin AES, Lagos Thermal 2003 170 9 9
4 Afam Thermal
(gas)
1975 , 1982 710 20 3
6 Ijora Station Lagos Thermal
(gas)
1978 60 3 2
7 Lagos IPP
(Enron/AES) Egbin
Thermal 2003 170 9 9
8 Oji Thermal
(coal)
1956 30 - None
9 Delta TV @ Ughelli Thermal 1966, 1990 832 18 12
10 Kainji Hydro 1968, 1976,
1978
760 8 6
11 Jebba Hydro 1986 540 6 6
12 Shiroro Hydro 1990 600 4 2
TOTAL 6212 94 54
From table 2; In 2004, there is a total of 94 installed units
with 6212MW installed capacity,
68.9% thermal, 30.59% hydro and
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28
Recently the lack of adequate supply made the populace source
for self generation. This has
been done with the help of power generators with capacity
ranging between 2.5-500KVA.
These generators uses petrol or diesel as their fuel and are
very inefficient, expensive and
highly emissive constituting noise and air pollution to the
prevailing unclean environment.
A newspaper blog reported recently that, over 60million
Nigerians now own a generator (21)
which makes the generator industry better than the television
industry.
Renewable technologies are available but have not been
commercially deployed; it is still in
the research stage. Some of the technologies have been proven
but the future of renewable
in the country is bleak irrespective of its potential because
the present energy policy doesnt
by anyway encourage or actually enforce sustainability.
2.2. Recent Advancement, Research and Development
With reference to the prevailing situation, the government has
decided to rescue the almost
dead power sector which could lead to the paralysis of the
economy by establishing a
mandate through the federal constitution Act No. 62 of 1979, as
amended by Act No. 32 of
1988 and Act No. 19 of 1989, with the statutory mandate for the
field of energy in all its
ramifications.
The established bodies in the process of deregulation
include;
Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN); mandated to carry out
overall energy sector
planning and policy implementation, promote the diversification
of the energy
resources through the development and optimal utilization of
all, including the
introduction of new and alternative Energy resources like Solar,
Wind, Biomass and
Nuclear Energy.
National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC); mandated to
enable
uninterrupted electricity supply, fluidize private sector
participation, ascertain
consumer protection and a general fair regulation.
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29
Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM); creation of a competitive
market for
distribution companies to source for electricity from any of the
available generating
market.
Rural Electrification; unbundling agency to manage the rural
electrification funds,
with the objective of expanding access to electricity in rural
communities.
Independent Power Producers (IPP); facilitating private
companies to enable power
production through their generating plants and enter into
bilateral agreements with
preferred customers or distribution companies.
As a popular saying-what cant be measured cant be managed. This
has further helped to
measure the energy demand and strategies of supply by
collaborating with the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for a 30years planning
period. This measure
employed the IAEA modeling tool;
Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED)
Model for the Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their
General Environmental
Impact (MESSAGE).
The result enhanced incorporating private companies into the
power sector through the
privatization program to qualitatively supplement the capacity
of the present generation
and supply of electricity that the country craves for. In
regards to this, several groups,
companies, bodies, state government have attempted to implement
project in the past to
reduce the problem of inadequacy but most of their impact havent
been visible due to the
great gap between the present demand and supply. Also 98% of
commissioned and
proposed projects have not been able to address sustainability,
but their main goal is
adequate and reliable supply which is still a reality of decades
ahead with regards to the
present pace of growth.
This dissertation aims at providing adequate and sustainable
electricity supply through EG
in a decentralized pattern to be able to; harness energy
potential of different sources at
different locations, reduce the losses during transmission,
reduced cost of connection,
enhance greater market and competition, and opportunities for
private and local/state
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30
government participation. This will open the market for
indigenous and foreign investors
to utilize its assets and benefit hugely from the relatively
untapped market while the
populace will get adequate supply and lower tariffs from the
competitive market, also
greater employment opportunity and the dream of
industrialization can be brought alive.
The summary of the reason for the privatization acts are
enlisted below;
Sustainability
Inadequacy and quality of supply
Wastage
Environmental impact
Poverty
Economic decline
Lack of accountability and good management
In view of the situation of the country, the potential problems
will be discussed and then,
the subsequent chapters will economically analyze a preferred
solution to the present
structure.
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31
3. PROBLEMS OF ELECTRICITY IN NIGERIA
In an attempt to decipher the problems of electricity supply
inadequacy in the nation,
interviews were carried out to research and ascertain the main
problems in the industry
and how they affects the country across all sectors. The area of
focus included
industrialization, electricity usage, economic growth,
environment sustainability, and
barriers to development. After several telephone and one on one
interview from
government representatives, private organization and various
individuals across different
sectors, responses could be summarized as;
Generation-Supply incapacity
National policy
Management and corruption issues
Inaccurate data
The above enlisted problems have unarguable been seeking
amendment through the cry of
the people but each point is deepened and cannot be tackled from
the surface; there is need
for reforms in different departments, responsible for managing
the above problems by
using different strategic tools.
3.1. Generation-Supply Incapacity
This was tackled by most government representative in a forum
discussion. It was stressed
that the people are expecting the government to provide adequate
electricity supply which
isnt disputed as the government responsibility. They said effort
have been concentrated on
this in recent years, unfortunately the actions hasnt been
evident due to sabotage of
government effort and the deepened network problems.
Their problem was analyzed subjectively in the various phases of
generation-supply as
discussed below.
-
32
3.1.1. Generation
It was stated that, the total installed capacity of the current
generating plants is 7876MW
including IPP generation but, the available capacity is less
than 4000MW as at December
2009. There are fourteen generating stations and seven of them
are old enough to be
overhauled which generate an average daily capacity of 2700MW
which is far below the
initial peak load forecast of 8900MW for the existing
infrastructure. This resulted to load
shedding as a solution to help distribute electricity to all
parts of the country.
The problems are summarized below;
Insufficient funding of the station to aid maintenance.
Lack of adequate human power and experienced personnel to handle
and operate
the stations.
Old equipment and facilities to enable efficient and effective
generation.
Concentration on few sources of energy for electricity
generation
Inadequate capacity
Sabotage of government efforts
The above listed points have been summarized from the analysis
from government
representatives. It is clear that there is lack of funding in
the power sector as the present
capacity of the nation is far below the present demand of the
nation. This resulted to the
problem the nation is facing now.
Figure 2 shows the electricity generation in Nigeria putting
into consideration the installed
capacity and the total generation.
-
33
Figure 2: Electricity generation in Nigeria from 1970 2005
(22)
Figure 2 shows the gap between the installed capacity and the
total generation. This is as a
result of the old plants which are still in use. Most likely,
greater amount of energy is used
to power the old generating plants and a given lower output than
its installation state due
to drop in efficiency and lack of maintenance. Some
professionals proved that efficiency of
these plants sometimes dropped by 60% depending on the state of
the plant.
Mr. Mohammed of the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) discussed
at length on the
effort of the commission to put online some new generation
plants with the
institutionalized IPP, to enable abundance and quality
electricity. He also said that, the
problem at hand now encompasses all the phases of production to
consumption and more
effort will be focused on the transmission, distribution and
marketing of electricity to
create a conducive atmosphere for investors, ease discharge of
their objectives, and enable
them recoup interest on investment. The summarized future
generation capacity of Nigeria
is in appendix I.
Appendix I shows the proposed power generation plan for the
adequate supply of
electricity. We can conclude that, the plan is just to
supplement the present energy
generation capacity but the problem of sustainability has been
postponed to the future
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34
with reflections of present action. Hydro-generation takes a
share of 19.84% of the
proposed generation plan and 80.16% goes to thermal. From the
share potentials of energy
resources available in the country (table 1), we know gas is
abundant in the country
likewise other resources, so this doesnt give gas an edge in
utilization or to forego other
potential resources as this sums up to wastage of resources.
Environmental concern and
laws has been gaining acceptance across developed nation but
until now it hasnt been
trending in Nigeria. Knowing this, any project that involves the
environment and has a life
extending into the future should put sustainability into
consideration. Gas is accepted to be
partly clean for generating electricity in terms of its
pollution level but its not as clean as
renewable energy thus there is room for mixed generation due to
the energy resources
available in the country.
3.1.2. Transmission
Technically, the problem of transmission has only been
identified by the people in the
engineering department who are exposed to core activities which
involves installing
transmission lines. Transmission loses over long distances have
been estimated to be
8.05% of the total electricity production compared to the 6-7%
of the developed world. The
issues of transmission cannot be ignored as the proposed
generating plant needs
transmission medium to effectively convey its power.
Mr. Olubunmi Obajuluwa of Power Holding Company of Nigeria
(PHCN) expressed the need
of replacing the old transmission lines as the capacity and
efficiency of transmission has
reduced over the years due to heating and overloading, and most
likely quality materials
were not used at the time of construction, and there wasnt any
monitoring agency to verify
that on behalf of the government. This increased loss of voltage
during transmission. He
also stressed that government properties havent been secured
enough because, there have
been reported cases of destruction and theft of public
infrastructures in new sites before
decommissioning.
-
35
Another Engr. Abdul of Energy Commission of Nigeria said the
transmission system doesnt
cover all part of the country-the maximum current capacity is
4,000MW and also
summarized other problems as;
Overloading of transformers in service areas,
Lack of development in the sector to implement modern
technologies for
communication and monitoring,
Vandalization of lines associated with lack of surveillance on
electrical
infrastructure,
Lack of fund to regularly expand, update, modernize, and
maintain the network as a
result of resource allocation,
It covers only the major parts of the country,
Inadequate tools and attendant/staffs for urgent
maintenance,
Long process of funds allocation to maintenance needs,
Lack of technical know-how to implement the maintenance
needs.
3.1.3. Distribution & Marketing
The problems of generation and transmission have been analyzed
and the major
hindrances have been considered, it is fair to say present
problem would exact an equal
reaction on the distribution network coupled with some marketing
problems. Thus, we can
have a full problem profile of distribution and marketing. I
spoke with the several
representatives of PHCN marketers and they all have a wide range
of problems which need
to be tackled to stabilize the situation. The problems spanned
across the problems of
generation and transmission and categorically stated that, many
of the aggrieved
customers have displaced their grievance on their staffs as a
result of inefficiency in the
generation and transmission stages. This problem faced across
all states in Nigeria mostly
lead to their inability to perform. Like the popular saying to
whom much is given, much is
expected, many of the populace expect constant supply from the
government and the only
people to display their aggression with are the marketers. Some
great clash has been
-
36
recorded in several states of staffs been maltreated, beaten,
injured and sometimes killed in
the events of carrying out their jobs.
The problems were summarized thus,
Weak and inadequate network coverage,
Insufficient fund for mobilization and implementing task,
Poor billing system,
Inadequate logistics facilities (tools and vehicles),
Fraudulent practices by staff and very poor customer
relations,
Low staff morale and lack of regular training,
Lack of access to remote places in the distribution plan.
Figure 3 below shows the transmission and distribution losses
over the years due to lack of
maintenance coupled with the incompetent installed
infrastructure to utilize the total
generation capacity.
Figure 3: Transmission and Distribution in Nigeria (23)
-
37
3.1.4. Consumption
This is virtually the end of the whole needs for generation.
Electricity is a vital part of
development and human life but till now people have failed to
respect its usage as a result
of many factors. Nigeria havent been able to generate enough to
meet its demands thus, a
lot of regulations cannot be implemented on the needs to avoid
wastage.
Wastage has been recorded high in various part of the country as
a result of improper
billing system and low tariff on electricity aside the technical
loses experienced. The
government has subsidized electricity to the extent that, a
continuous subsidy will possibly
affect other sectors of the economy.
A group discussion between Nigerian living in western countries
has shown that, the
attitude of fresh Nigerian immigrant towards electricity
consumption tends to be wasteful;
they tend not to know the value of electricity by consuming
electricity wastefully and
unknowingly. This is as a result of inaccurate billing; they
have not been billed according to
their usage (fixed/ estimated billing system), no matter their
consumption. This
differentiates them from people living in a technological-driven
world where billing is
based on consumption coupled with service delivery to satisfy
the customers needs.
On the contrary, some electricity customers also said that, they
wont pay for electricity
even if its available and referenced that; they provide all the
basic amenities by themselves
and they havent got a reason to uphold and hail their citizenry;
they provide water for
their homes, generate electricity by themselves,
self-construction of roads and drainages to
mention a few.
The summarized problems are,
Inaccurate billing system,
Old system of electricity distribution and monitoring,
Acute demand-supply level,
Increasing poverty level of the country,
Lack of education on the real value of electricity supply
and,
-
38
The negative populace attitude towards electricity
consumption.
Figure 4 shows the consumption of electricity according to
sectors, this further interprets
that electricity wastage is high in residential as it accounts
for the largest consumption. As
a result, its the same people that consumes electricity in
residential building, goes to
offices and industries to apply the same wasteful orientation
which makes them utilize full
load demand at other places which has an equal effect on the
distribution network. The
demand load increases and this weakens and sometimes leads to
burnout of some
electrical infrastructures. In view of several burnouts, its not
advisable for continuous
replacement by the government if the situation remains the same
and the consumers
remains unconscious of energy usage.
Figure 4: Electricity consumption in Nigeria by sectors (22)
Mr. Kamal Habib of the Ministry of Budget and Planning stated
that, the population growth
of the country cant be under-estimated with its present
population of over 150million and
-
39
has 70% of its population to be under the age of 30years and 47%
are ladies willing and
able to make their own family. He analyzed that; each of the
ladies will virtually give birth
to an average of three kids which will put the population of the
country in the next decade
close to 340 million. This will put the country as the most
populous black nation with great
population density, and with its present ill-economic growth and
lack of planning, it could
be the most poverty driven nation in coming years. He stressed
the need of the country to
encourage greater and strong planning network for all sectors
with the implementation of
rigid laws and strategized approach to enable the citizen have
confidence in the
government and future of the nation.
From the above outcomes from the interview with different people
that are relevant to this
research, it is fair to summarize the most critical issues
facing the power industry into the
subtopics of generation, transmission, distribution, and
consumption attitudes. This could
be linked together in a cyclical orientation as represented in
figure 5
Figure 5: Relationship of generation, transmission,
distribution, and consumption
pattern in Nigeria
Figure 5 shows that all the processes dependent on one another.
A given scenario is the
epileptic generation problem as a result of lack of funding and
other criteria explained
-
40
above, this inevitably reduces the capacity of transmission
coupled with poor transmission
facilities and other related problems; a resulting lesser
voltage to be distributed. The
insufficient distributed voltage leads to a poor marketing
ability based on inefficient
service and therefore a low revenue generation. The actual
consumption is not billed
accurately and the customers are not keen on knowing the nature
of their bills as a result of
fluctuating and unreliable electricity sector and also, most
customers are on self electricity
generation.
This will affect the response of the customers to bill payments
and then low revenue will be
generated. Thus, yearly accounting analysis sums up to great
loses for the power sector
irrespective of its subsidies and then the effects goes on and
on which finally leads to
damage of major infrastructure with no regular maintenance.
3.2. National Policy
The legal policies of the country has encouraged electricity
generation through all available
potentials but it doesnt enforce sustainability which is the
only edge renewable technology
has got over conventional technology outside economics. The
summary of the main points
of the regulation mandated through the NERC are;
create, promote and preserve efficient industry and market
structures, and to
ensure the optimal utilization of resources for the provision of
electricity services;
maximize access to electricity services, by promoting and
facilitating consumer
connections to distribution systems in both rural and urban
areas;
ensure that an adequate supply of electricity is available to
consumers;
ensure that the prices charged by licensees are fair to
consumers and are sufficient
to allow the licensees to finance their activities and to allow
for reasonable earnings
for efficient operations;
ensure the safety, security, reliability, and quality of service
in the production and
delivery of electricity to consumers; and
ensure that regulation is fair and balanced for licensees,
consumers, investors, and
other stakeholders.
-
41
Considering the above statements, various progresses have been
made by the NERC on
implementing strategic project to enhance development in the
power industry but the
sector has not been liberalized to enhance competition in its
real sense. Many of the
projects and licenses are awarded not based on merit of the
awardees, and policies arent
rigid enough to deal with defaulters. There is also need for
national energy master-plan
that would efficiently manage each parts of the nation
effectively by enhancing and
empowering states and local government into full time
independent energy producers and
marketers if they so wish.
The problem of fuel sourcing should also be backed legally to
avoid the fluctuation in
energy production as major consumers like power station wouldnt
for any reason source
operation-fuel from the black market. The institutionalization
of renewable energy funds
which will help promote local manufacturers, suppliers, and
renewable energy users
through incentives should be considered in energy policies.
3.3. Management and Corruption Issues
This is the major of any organization and the government has
suffered from this issue as
most of the workers arent dedicated to doing their jobs in the
right way. Many factors are
responsible for this due to the country planning and
organization pattern. It includes but
not limited to;
inconsistence in salary packages:
greed
monitoring and auditing issues
leadership qualities and characters
The workers have complained that the take home packages have not
encouraged them to
devote all their abilities into the job as most of them have to
look for additional jobs to
supplement their income and meet up with expenses they spend on
the government job.
Also inflation occurs several times in a year but, there hardly
have a salary review in four
years. Also some workers complained of salary delays for weeks
after due time.
-
42
Greed is generally accepted to be ruining the state of economy
in the country which occurs
deep into the system of governance and attempt to tackle it
hasnt yielded any positive
result; thus younger generation are capitalizing on its
continuity.
The issues of monitoring and auditing hasnt been tackled at all,
no agency is responsible
for auditing or monitoring the potential problems and therefore
create a complex scenario
after the situation has been abandoned for long. Most of the
projects awarded are not
monitored and then a failed result will be the output
3.4. Inaccurate Data
This problem cuts across all sectors of the economy. The
provision of adequate electricity
for the nation need some basic data like the actual population
count which shouldnt be
politically influenced, the present generation, transmission and
distribution capacity, the
structural capability of the environment compared to its actual
demands and needs, e.t.c.
Most part of the nation is agreed to be under the rural
communities and even the Local
Governments managing their environment is yet to include them on
their planning map or
have a detailed statistics about them, how then would the State
and Federal Government
access genuine information of these localities. This leads to
inadequate provision for them
since the present amenities are only for the urban areas where
records are known.
Historically, most estimate done to excess or surplus the actual
budget in order to
incorporate un-recorded statistics have been falsified mostly
due to under-estimation. This
shows that, the unrecorded values of any parameter in the
country is greater than the
recorded value, thus any forecast based on inaccurate data will
give an unrealistic future.
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43
4. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF EMBEDDED POWER GENERATION (EPG).
As explained in earlier chapters, the urgent need for adequate
electricity is the status of
Nigeria but, when structuring a solution, a lot of parameters
need to be considered to avoid
implementing project that might be termed wasteful, uneconomical
or unsustainable in the
nearest future. As a result of this, this chapter compares the
proposed concept-Embedded
Power Generation (EPG) and the conventional concept-Central
Plant System (CPS) under
economic and sustainable parameters to realize an ideal option
for future electricity.
To do justice to the framework of this dissertation, all
parameters have to be considered to
enable an effective performance of an ideal solution. These sums
up to major parameters
for comparison of the two concepts as;
Emission,
Cost of technology;
Capital cost, Operation and maintenance
Cost of per kWh
Technical and non technical loses,
Distribution and coverage,
Efficiency (sustainability),
Environmental impact.
In view of these parameters, a summary will be extracted from
the characteristic of the two
concepts. This is to present their potential effectiveness
towards electricity structuring and
distribution in Nigeria.
4.1. Emission
This occurs as a result of the combustion of fuel in the power
industry. Emission is a very
important factor when considering sustainability, thus energy
and carbon conversion is
helpful to calculate the energy values in different units and
its equivalent emission factor of
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44
different fuel sources. The table 4 below shows the summary
sourced from Department for
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)-carbon trust.
Table 3: Emission conversion
FUEL UNITS Kg CO2 /unit
Grid electricity KWh 0.537
Renewable electricity KWh 0
Natural gas KWh
Therms
0.185
5.421
LPG KWh
Therms
Litres
0.214
6.277
1.495
Gas oil Tonnes
KWh
Tonnes
3,190
0.252
2.674
Fuel oil Tonnes
KWh
3,223
0.268
Burning oil Tonnes
KWh
3,150
0.245
Diesel Tonnes
KWh
Litres
3,164
0.250
2.630
Petrol Tonnes
KWh
Litres
3,135
0.240
2.315
Industrial coal Tonnes
KWh
2,457
0.330
Wood pellets Tonnes
KWh
132
0.025
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45
Having these values, it very easy to delineate the values of the
carbon dioxide emitted from
the various technologies which is planned for electricity
generation process. According to
appendix I, it shows a proposed plan of generating 17,887MW of
electricity of which
80.16% is thermal (gas), and 19.84% hydropower. This gives us
14,338MW electricity from
gas and 3,549MW of hydropower,
Statistical representation:
For gas;
14338MW = (14338 x 8760hours) = 125.6 x 106MWh
125.6 x 106MWh = 125.6 x 109kWh
125.6 x 109kWh = (125.6 x 109 x 0.185) = 23.24 x 109Kg CO2
23.24 x 109Kg CO2 =23.94 x 106 tonnes of CO2 Annually
For hydropower;
3,549MW = 0Kg CO2 Annually
For EPG, which could use renewable energy or conventional fuel,
the emission is zero for
renewable as seen with hydropower or other renewable sources and
a measurable volume
with regards to the fuel technology used. In Nigeria, the
present forms of embedded
generation available are PV, diesel, and petrol generators which
are widely distributed in
the cities and sparsely available in the rural area.
Availability of petrol and diesel
generators is due to cost of operating and availability of fuel
in a close distances. These
generators are highly inefficient due to their standards and
produces greater emission. The
smaller ones have a life span of 18months and the larger ones
could work efficiently for
5years depending on its originality and maintenance.
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Statistical representation of diesel and petrol generators:
Diesel generator;
1 litre of diesel = 10.9kWh
litreperkgCOkWhdieselofkWh 2725.2)250.09.10(9.10
10.9kWh of diesel = (10.9kWh x 0.250) = 2.725Kg CO2 per
litre
Petrol generators;
1 litre of petrol = 9.6kWh
9.6kWh of petrol = (9.6kWh x 0.240) = 2.3Kg CO2 per litre
Note: the emission standards all depends on the condition of the
generators, capacity
factor, load factor and efficiency. The above calculation has
been done based on a new
generator with efficiency of 90%, capacity factor 0.85 and
operating under the load
capacity.
As earlier stated in previous chapter, an estimate of 60million
Nigerian uses generators for
self power generation. Another newspaper blog says Nigerian
using generators consumes
an average of four litres of fuel per day for electricity
purpose (24).
It we assumed that, the minimum emissive fuel type is used for
the generator which is
petrol.
Statistical representation:
60million x 4 litres = 240 x 106 litres
240 x 106 litres = (240 x 106 litres x 9.6) = 2304 x 106
kWh/day
240 x 106 litres = 552 x 106Kg of CO2 daily
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The above statistics clearly shows that, the minimum inevitable
emission is 552,000 tonnes
of CO2 daily. Its is clear that embedded self generation from
petrol and diesel is not in
anyway good for the environment, as other sources of pollution
like transportation which
produces a greater amount of greenhouse gases to the environment
is also of major
concern. Thus any attempt to implement an energy intensive
project, the emission
potentials of the project should be considered.
From table 4, we can conclude that, natural gas is the cleanest
non-renewable energy due
its low emission level, and the proposed power plants will be
fueled by natural gas.
Unfortunately, the huge investment required to build
infrastructure such as gas pipelines
for an enabling environment is a barrier thats yet to be
crossed. Also, natural gas could be
highly abundant in the country but, parameters such as local
fuel security and vandalism of
government properties which could suspend the operation of the
stations should be
considered which continues to pose a threat to the Nigerian oil
industry, irrespective of its
abundance. It is also clear from earlier analysis in table 1
that the abundance of resources
in Nigeria creates an open option for mixed-generation. Any of
these resources could be
tapped to enhance mixed-generation, avoid wastage of natural gas
and enhance fuel
security for the future of the power industry.
4.2. Cost of Technology
This section compares both concept of EPG and CPS and discusses
which is economically
viable per kWh or MWh of electricity produced. It shows cost
comparison of the two
concepts under the different possible fuel technologies with
references to;
Capital cost, operation and maintenance
Cost of per kWh
4.2.1. Capital cost, operation and maintenance
To analyze this part with the various fuel technologies
available, we have to consider the
costing necessary for generation, transmission and distribution.
We have to take note that
the cost incurred for transmission could vary depending on;
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48
the style or technology adapted in the project,
the voltage to be transmitted and also
the terrain over which transmission companies build transmission
lines also affects
cost, e.g. mountainous terrain far from roads and relatively
flat plains with nearby
roads.
Thus, an assumption will be made from the National Association
of Regulatory Utility
Commission (NARUC) in the United States of America. The NARUC
stated according to
estimates from various project that, the cost of transmission
ranges from $US 0.5
1.5million per mile (25).
It is generally accepted that the capital cost for electricity
production varies with the type
of fuel technology and the types of plant, so the various
expenses to be incurred in
generating a MWh of electricity through different technologies
according to the United
States Department of Energy (DOE) is represented in Appendix
II.
Appendix II, represents the cost for conventional plant system,
thus if we assume that there
is no other variable or changes that is meant to occur with
costing for the EPG except for
cost of transmission which is zero, then a resulting difference
of just the transmission cost
will be represented in the table 5
Table 4: Cost comparison between CSP and EPG
Plant Type Total System Levelized Cost $/megawatt-hour
CSP EPG = CSP Transmission
Investment
Conventional coal 94.8 93.6
Advanced coal 109.4 108.2
Advanced coal with CCS 136.2 135.0
Natural gas-fired
Conventional 66.1 64.9
http://www.raponline.org/Pubs/ELECTRICITYTRANSMISSION.pdf
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combined cycle
Advanced combined
cycle
63.1 61.9
Advanced CC with
CCS
89.3 88.1
Conventional
combustion turbine
124.5 121.0
Advanced
combustion turbine
103.5 100.0
Advanced nuclear 113.9 112.9
Wind 97.0 93.5
Wind- Offshore 243.2 237.3
Solar PV1 210.7 206.7
Solar thermal 311.8 306.0
Geothermal 101.7 100.7
Biomass 112.5 111.2
Hydro 86.4 84.5
Table 5 could be represented in a chat to graphically compare
the differences.
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50
Figure 6: Costing per MWh of electricity produced from different
plant types
($/MWh)
From the above charts and figures from the tables, it is clear
that, EPG is a better option
when economic costing is considered as the single parameter for
project choice and
implementation.
4.2.2. Costing per kWh
The analysis in Table 6 shows the variation in the cost of
different fuel technologies
adapted from the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI). This
assumption is made to
suite Nigeria as there arent any available details for the
costing per kilowatt of electricity
produced in Nigeria.
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
CSP
EPG = CSP Transmission Investment
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Table 5: Technology costing per kWh
TECHNOLOGY COST PER KWh
(Canadian cent)
COST PER KWh (Nigerian
Naira)
Coal 5 7.9
Gas 9 14.22
Biomass 8 12.64
Biomass co-firing 11 17.38
Micro hydro 27 42.66
Small hydro 19 30
Large hydro 10 15.8
Solar PV 79 124.84
Solar thermal 35 55.31
Wind 11 17.38
*exchange rate was adapted from www.xe.com which evaluates 1cent
as 1.58naira (July
2011).
The above table is interpreted into a chart as shown below
Figure 7: Cost per kWh (Nigerian naira)
NGN 0.00
NGN 20.00
NGN 40.00
NGN 60.00
NGN 80.00
NGN 100.00
NGN 120.00
NGN 140.00
http://www.xe.com/
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52
Solar PV is the most expensive technology to generate
electricity as shown by figure 7. It
should be emphasized that as much as solar intensity is very
much available in the
northern part of the country, the technology is still very much
in its infancy and there are
ongoing research as to reduction in the price of the panel and
increase in the conversion
efficiency. The cheapest technology is the coal followed by
biomass and then the most
utilized in Nigeria which is thermal (Gas). Other technologies
also could be harnessed but
they have not been incorporated due to strategic difficulties in
managing and operating
them while most renewable technology hasnt been applied fully as
a result of the
intermittency and historic uncertainty.
4.3. Technical and non-technical loses
This helps to compare the technical and non-technical loses
associated with both concepts
of CPG and EPG. The table below shows the proposed plan of power
generation with its
present loses and a projected reduction in loses for the
upcoming years by the NERC and
the power planning committee.
Table 6: Effect of transmission and distribution loses with
projection plan (central
stations)
Description 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Out-going power(GWh) 97,131 109,272 115,829 122,778 130,145
Transmission loses 8.05% 8.05% 8.05% 8.05% 8.05%
Delivered to distribution(GWh) 89,312 100,476 106,504 112,895
119,668
Distribution loses 11% 11% 10% 10% 10%
Delivered to customers(GWh) 79,488 89,423 86,269 93,477
101,239
Non technical loses 14% 12% 10% 8% 6%
Billed to customers 68,359 78,693 86,269 93,477 101.239
Revenue collection loses 8% 6% 4% 2% 2%
Sales where revenue is collected 62,891 73,971 82,818 91,607
99,215
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(GWh)
Revenue based sales as % of out-
going
65% 68% 72% 75% 76%
The present transmission loses in Nigeria from the grid is a
constant 8.05% of the outgoing
power from the central station, other loses recorded presently
are the distribution loses,
non-technical loses, and revenue collection loses all of which
are projected to reduce as the
year goes by with more effective management. From table 6, the
percentage revenue of the
outgoing power from a central station is 65% for 2011 and 76% to
be expected in 2015
considering greater management efforts across all phases of
electricity generation to
consumption.
The next table shows a scenario of the losses that could be
encountered from embedded
power generation using the same power generation techniques with
the same power
output for the present and upcoming years ahead.
Table 7: Effect of transmission and distribution loses with
projection plan
(Embedded Generation)
Conventional
Plant
Embedded Generation
Description 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Out-going power(GWh) 97,131 109,272 115,829 122,778 130,145
Transmission loses 8.05% - - - -
Delivered to distribution(GWh) 89,312 109,272 115,829 122,778
130,145
Distribution loses 11% 7.33% 6.33% 5.33% 4.33%
Delivered to customers(GWh) 79,488 101,262 108,497 109,655
124,510
Non technical loses 14% 7% 5% 3% 1%
Billed to customers 68,359 94,174 103,072 106,366 123,265
Revenue collection loses 8% 5% 4% 3% 2%
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54
Sales where revenue is
collected (GWh)
62,891 89,465 98,949 103,175 120,800
Revenue based sales as % of
out-going
65% 82% 85.4% 89% 93%
*note; 2011, is the baseline for the calculation and the
projection is made from 2012 for
EPG.
From tables 7 & 8, we could extract the revenue generated
from both concepts as a product
of their encountered loses and simplify it into a table of
revenue as shown below.
Table 8: Comparison Revenue Sales between Both Concepts; CPS and
EPG
YEAR 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CPS
Sales where revenue is collected
62,891 73,971 82,818 91,607 99,215
Revenue based sales as % of out-going
65% 68% 72% 75% 76%
EPG
Sales where revenue is collected
62,891 89,465 98,949 103,175 120,800
Revenue based sales as % of out-going
65% 82% 85.4% 89% 93%
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Figure 8: Comparison Revenue Sales between Both Concepts-CP and
EG
From the chart, it is clear that EG has a reduced loses
encountered in the medium of
electricity production to consumption and therefore a greater
revenue due to its smaller
size, easier management and low maintenance requirement
depending on the size of the
plant.
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
2010.5 2011 2011.5 2012 2012.5 2013 2013.5 2014 2014.5 2015
2015.5
CP
EG
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4.4. Distribution and adequacy
This part of the analysis helps to measure the extent of
coverage between the traditional
CPS and the proposed EPG concept as a product of the historical
relevance in Nigeria. The
numbers of people that benefits from the central station might
be estimated huge but as a
matter of fact the grid supply electricity to approximately
4.7million customers which is
generated from central power station as at 2009 (26). These
numbers could be further
analyzed by comparing it with the demand of the business centre
of Nigeria which is Lagos
state. The Governor of Lagos State in his annual economic
briefing stated that; Lagos has
approximately 4million homes and each home accommodates an
average of four people,
this puts the total number of its occupant to 16million people.
Thus, we could assume that,
the numbers of people that benefits from the electricity supply
of the whole nation is
optimally 20million people including ghost consumers (people who
dont pay for electricity
and their usage isnt recorded).
However, as earlier introduced in chapter one that, most of the
populace inhibits the rural
environment, and the inadequacy of electricity produced from the
generation station and
economics of revenue generation makes it impossible and
uneconomical to supply
electricity to the rural communities; if electricity
infrastructures are extended into the rural
area, the expected revenue wont be achieved due to the poverty
level and unemployment
rate. Thus the load and revenue managers prefer to distribute to
cities where greater sales
could be achieved so as to meet their revenue target.
The PHCN also complimented this and stated in the last consumer
protection forum that;
the cities are responsible for 90% of their revenue irrespective
of its undercharged
electricity prices and most of the power supplied to the rural
communities is mostly lost as
revenue collection hasnt been an easy task. This statement could
be backed by the load
management scheme which made Lagos State benefit 1000MW from the
staggering
4000MW national capacity.
Funds secured through electricity sales is also less than the
cost of generating electricity
and the government has been subsidizing the cost of electricity
over the years but the
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57
inconsistency in subsidy keeps the IPPs running a negative
account and also scares
potential investors.
All the above issues and concerns are due to the problem
associated with central station
and the way the sector has been managed over the years. Thus,
EPG could be a better
alternative for power generation if it could be available in all
communities or in all the 776
Local Government to produce electricity according to their needs
and tapping from the
available resources within 20-50Kilometers circumference
distances around their
environment. This concept is sure to provide the country with
easy access to electricity and
greater coverage of the rural areas. Greater revenue could be
generated as micro-
generation could be easily monitored, therefore, marketing
activities could be directed to
target customers and management streamlined to plant
capacities.
The EPG structure could also be likened to that of the rural
water supply in Nigeria.
Historically, the central water distribution plan doesnt reach
the rural communities due to
discontinuity in the infrastructural project or sometimes due to
shortage in water level
from the District Water Corporation or sometimes distance of
travel or sometimes no
electricity to power the pumps, or pressure drop encountered due
to pipeline leakages
which arent monitored.
Since huge funding is necessary to implement major projects,
Local and State Government
have resulted to financing micro project that will effectively
cater for the small
communities and reduce their inaccessibility to basic amenities.
Water supply has been
made available to them in varieties of ways, ranging from the
hand powered surfaced water
pumps to a submersible pump depending on electricity
availability in the different regions.
This project might not have helped so much due to the quantity
decommissioned but it has
greatly helped the rural communities have access to quality and
clean underground water.
From the above discussion, the distributed concept