Economic Development and Technology. Center for Agribusiness & Economic Development (CAED) We are a center of the University of Georgia College of Agricultural.

Economic Development and Technology

Center for Agribusiness & Economic Development (CAED)

We are a center of the University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, combining the missions of research and Extension by

providing feasibility and marketing services; agricultural and demographic data for private and public decision makers; and conducting analysis related to policy issues in

Georgia agriculture and providing that information to relevant decision makers.

Dr. Kent Wolfe - Center Director specializing in agribusiness development, agritourism, value added agriculture, and general feasibility analysis

Sharon P. Kane - Economist specializing in food business development, economic impact analysis, and economic & community development

Dr. John McKissick - Professor Emeritus and Distinguished Agricultural Marketing Professor specializing in agribusiness economics and policy, agribusiness development, bioenergy, agricultural product development, rural economic development, agricultural impact analysis, and feasibility analysis.

Center for Agribusiness & Economic Development (CAED)

We are a center of the University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, combining the missions of research and Extension by

providing feasibility and marketing services; agricultural and demographic data for private and public decision makers; and conducting analysis related to

policy issues in Georgia agriculture and providing that information to relevant decision makers.

Dr. Tommie Shepherd - Agricultural Economist specializing in agribusiness development, value added agriculture, rural economic development, and agricultural cooperatives

Karen Stubbs - Research Professional II, Farm Gate Coordinator

Vanessa P. Shonkwiler - Economist specializing in economic analysis, regional analysis, and agribusiness marketing.

Center for Agribusiness & Economic Development

Farm Gate Value Report – published annually Ag Snapshots publication Ag Forecast Meetings and publications - annual

event Flavor of Georgia Food Product Contest – since

2007 Georgia County Guide – w/Carl Vinson Institute of

Gov’t. County Demographic Profile Presentations/Quiz Economic Importance of Food & Fiber

Presentations Georgia MarketMaker – CAED awarded USDA/NIFA

2010 Partnership Award for Multi-state Efforts & 2014 Innovation Award for Farm to Food Bank Pilot Program

Customized Economic Studies & Feasibility Analysis

You may already know us through our work…

Changes in U.S. Agriculture1. Agricultural production shifting to

larger and more specialized farms.

2. Agricultural Production Shifts

Changes in U.S. Agriculture3. Farmers are relying more heavily on

contracting to manage their risk.4. Farmers today use more capital and

chemicals and less labor and land than they did in 1948.

5. The combined changes in resources, preferences, and technology have altered the relative prices of inputs and the profitability of outputs.

The mix of items that farms produce has also changed

• Far more acreage is devoted to soybeans and far less goes to oats and cotton.

• Changing consumer diets have led to large increases in production of poultry and fruits and vegetables.

• Changes in the mix of outputs and inputs affect how the farm sector is organized and the sources of output growth.

How Has Ag Output Changed

How Livestock Production Has Changed

• U.S. agricultural output has more than doubled (up 156 percent) since 1948.

• Yet, the growth trends in farm commodities differ, and the revenue shares of individual commodities in total farm output have shifted over time.

• From 1948 to 2011, aggregate output grew at an average annual rate of 1.49 percent, with the crop sector growing faster than the livestock sector. The growth of crops accelerated and surpassed the growth of livestock in the mid-1970s, due partly to faster growing foreign demand for crop exports relative to livestock exports

Agricultural Productivity Growth

Source: USDA

Total Factor Productivity (TFP)

• TFP growth is the major source of U.S. agricultural output growth. Since aggregate input growth averaged only 0.07 percent per year, the average annual rate of output growth (1.49 percent) was almost entirely attributable to TFP growth, which increased at an average annual rate of 1.42 percent between 1948 and 2011.

TFP Drivers

• The major driver of long-run TFP growth—including both embodied and disembodied technical changes—is innovation.

• Although agricultural and trade policies and the regulatory environment can influence output changes, input uses and, thus, TFP estimates, they are short-term factors instead of TFP drivers.

Innovation and Adoption

• Both public and private agricultural research investments help spur technological innovation.

• Extension activities and public infrastructure help promote the use of the technology.

• For example, agricultural R&D may lead to new technologies, but these technologies must be adopted by farmers before they affect TFP growth. Therefore, factors that affect the speed of adoption, such as extension services or infrastructural development, will also affect TFP growth.

What the Future Holds• By 2050 the world’s population will reach 9.1 billion, 34

percent higher than today. • Nearly all of this population increase will occur in developing

countries. • Urbanization will continue at an accelerated pace, and about

70 percent of the world’s population will be urban (compared to 49 percent today).

• Income levels will be many multiples of what they are now. • In order to feed this larger, more urban and richer population,

food production (net of food used for biofuels) must increase by 70 percent.

• Annual cereal production will need to rise to about 3 billion tonnes from 2.1 billion today and annual meat production will need to rise by over 200 million tonnes to reach 470 million tonnes.

World Population Growth

Can Production Keep Up with Population Growth.

Lower Yield Growth Rates

The Green Revolution has also positive environmental impact.

Technology and Innovation Will Be Vital to Continued Production Growth

Future increases in crop production will be derived from three main sources: 1. expansion of arable land2. increases in cropping intensity (the

frequency with which crops are harvested from a given area)

3. improvements in yield.

No Hail Damage

Hail Damage

Looking at Wheat Density

Using Led Lights in a Warehouse

• Nitrogen utilization• Herbicide-tolerance traits• Mini-chromosome technology• Drought-resistance traits• RFID technology• Soil and crop sensors• High-flex tires

Source: Farm Industry News

Another Method to Increase Production is Better Farming Practices

Changing World Diets

More Detailed Break Down of Diets

What is Happening In Research

The Extension Situation

Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development

Challenge – Think of your future “outside the box” opportunities based on your assets –

-If we can help -

Contact:

The Center for Agribusiness

and Economic Development

www.caed.uga.edu

or 706-542-2434

America’s Opportunity

• America has more arable land than any other country on Earth.

• Approximately 889 million acres, or 40% of the U.S. land area is devoted to farming, and the U.S. is by far the biggest exporter of grain.

• However, that amount is shrinking—3,000 acres are lost to development every day.

Source: Wall Street Journal, To Feed Billions, Farms Are About Data as Much as Dirt

The Universityof Georgia

College of Agricultural & Environmental

Sciences

Food for Thought: The Big Picture

Growing Global Food Demand

High Domestic Commodity Price Levels

Increasing World Population

Expanding Middle Class in Developing Countries

The Universityof Georgia

College of Agricultural & Environmental

Sciences

Food for Thought: The Big Picture

7 Billion Mouths to Feed Worldwide

9 Billion Expected by 2050

Rising Demand in Asia and India

Diets Shifting From Grains to Fruits/Vegetables/Meats

Demand for Grains in Manufacturing Biofuels

The Universityof Georgia

College of Agricultural & Environmental

Sciences

Food for Thought: The Big Picture

Limited Supply of New Land Suitable for Farming

Urban Competition for Available Water Supplies

Flattening Out of Crop Yield Curve

Prospects for (and Against) GMO’s

The Universityof Georgia

College of Agricultural & Environmental

Sciences

How is this impacting the U.S.?Strong Export Activity

Low Interest Rates

Demand For Bio-Fuels

Increasing Farm Income and Land ValuesAre we entering a third “Golden Era” of U.S. Farming?