Economic Crisis and Agricultural Trade: Impacts of Price Instability and Exchange Rates Bruno Larue Titulaire de la Chaire de Recherche du Canada en Commerce International Agroalimentaire et directeur du CRÉA Colloquium “Agricultural Trade in the Americas” CEI/CRÉA, Québec ,May 16, 2009.
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Economic Crisis and Agricultural Trade: Impacts of Price Instability and Exchange Rates
Bruno Larue Titulaire de la Chaire de Recherche du Canada en Commerce International Agroalimentaire et directeur du CRÉA
Colloquium “Agricultural Trade in the Americas” CEI/CRÉA, Québec ,May 16, 2009.
The decline of housing prices triggered the current economic crisisthe current economic crisis
The S&P Case-Shiller index (20 US cities )
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The DJIA index dropped…. but some in the food business are OK (06/2006-05/2009)the food business are OK (06/2006-05/2009)
To What Extent Are Countries in the Americas Trading with One Another?Americas Trading with One Another?
Country Exp.Dest. Ag Imp.SourcesArgentina Brazil 17.4% EU Brazil 31.7%g
China 9.6% China USA 14.4%USA 7.8% BZ China 8.7%
Brazil USA 15.6% EU USA 15.5%Argen. 9% China China 12.5%Chi 6 7% USA A 8 6%China 6.7% USA Argen.8.6%
CanadaUSA 79.9% USA USA 59.8%UK 2.9% JP China 10.4%China 2.1% EU Mexico 4.7%
To What Extent Are Countries in the Americas Trading with One Another?
Country Exp.Dest. Ag Imp.SourcesChili China 14.7% EU USA 15.5%
Americas Trading with One Another?
USA 12.4% USA China10.4%Japan 10.5% Mex Brazil 9.5%
Mexico USA 82.1% USA USA 49.6%Canada 2.4% Can S.Korea 10.5%Spain 1 5% EU China 5 8%Spain 1.5% EU China 5.8%
Peru USA 18.5% EU USA 21.7%China 11.5% USA China 11.5%Canada 6.8% Can Brazil 10.4%
Other Evidence About Trade PotentialOther Evidence About Trade Potential
Brazilian border effects: Failly, Perracar and Terra (2008): NB=13, IB=75Daumal and Zignago (2008): NB=13.7, IB=290
Probability to trade/Extensive margin analysis:Ghazalian, Larue and Gervais (2009): Ecuador and Peru have more to gain from Columbianand Peru have more to gain from Columbian tariff reductions on livestock than Brazil and Argentina. Distance matters!
Thank you for you ATTENTION!Thank you for you ATTENTION!