Economic Costs of Critical Infrastructure Failure in El Paso-Juarez Region Border to Border Transportation Conference November 20, 2014 Jeff Shelton, Sharada.

Economic Costs of Critical Infrastructure Failure in El

Paso-Juarez Region

Border to Border Transportation ConferenceNovember 20, 2014

Jeff Shelton, Sharada Vadali, Gabriel Valdez, Shailesh Chandra, Arturo Bujanda

Texas A&M Transportation Institute

Mike MedinaEl Paso Metropolitan Planning Organization

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Contents

• The Context• Extreme Event Modeling

Framework• Economic Framework• Concluding Remarks

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The Context: Cross Border Trade FlowsTrade Value (Billions $) : 2013 ($507 Billion) ($280 b imports and

$226 b exports)

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TX Land Ports of Entry Are Vital for Trade and Will

Continue to be so..Name Total Trade

Value (Truck)

Export Value (Truck)

Import Value (Truck)

% Export Value

%Import Value

% Total Trade Value

Laredo, TX 117 54 63 17 21 19Detroit, MI 99 58 40 18 13 16Buffalo-Niagara, NY 62 37 26 12 9 10

El Paso, TX 51 22 29 7 10 8Port Huron, MI 48 30 18 10 6 8

Otay Mesa, CA 33 11 22 3 7 5Champlain Rouses Pt, NY

24 10 12 3 4 4

Hidalgo, TX 21 9 15 3 5 3Santa Teresa, NM 18 7 10 2 3 3Pembina, ND 17 12 5 4 2 3

Top 10 Ports by Trade Value (Billions of US$) ranked by total trade for USA- NAFTA partner trade in 2011. (U.S. DOT, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,TransBorder Freight Data, 2012)

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Aging Infrastructure – Underinvestment or

Disinvestment in Critical Links Could be Costly…

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What did we do?

• Developed a DTA model of the El Paso/Juarez region

• Ports-of-entry• Traffic signals• Accurate geometry• Traffic flow models

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Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling Framework to Simulate

Traffic Effects of Failures…

Port of Entry (POE) and the Bridge of the

Americas (BOTA)

Simulation Area: LPOE connecting to I-10 interchange.

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Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling –Simulated Area and

Infrastructure..

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Modeling Framework to Simulate Economic Implications... Teasing

out Domestic, International Flows

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Modeling Framework to Simulate Economic Costs to System Users

Zonal Trips

Data Output

Time Delay Costs-Truckers/Carriers

Fuel Costs-Truckers/Carriers

Operating Costs-Truckers/Carriers

Border Delay Costs

Industry Costs-Additional Freight Shipment Costs

Industry Costs-Additional Inventory Costs

Zonal TravelDistances

Short Term Long TermBase Case

Decide ‘Hotspot’ Zones based on Trip Volumes

Trip Diversion Rates

Cost Parameter and Inputs

Zonal Travel Times

Shippers and

Carriers

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Costs Imposed to Society Can be Large…

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What does this mean?

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Several weeks

42 mins

Next day130 mins

Before event31 mins

Average Travel Time - Trucks

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Preliminary Results and Conclusions

For the term immediate to disruption, the loss is at an accelerated rate of $2.5 million per day for the shippers and carriers. Peak periods have the highest loss.

Longer term costs on a per day basis are lower but will accumulate depending on length of replacement schedules and ability of trucks to shift to alternate POEs besides Zaragoza or Santa Teresa.

Regional spillover costs (indirect and induced) are not considered.

Possibilities include exploring mitigation strategies and looking at important supply chains and trade flows.

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Concluding Remarks (contd.)

Vital for agencies to consider regional resilience as part of preparedness and,

Continuity planning for businesses along corridors.

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Thank YouQuestions?