Monetary Policy Group February 2020 Economic and Monetary Conditions January 2020
Monetary Policy Group February 2020
Economic and Monetary Conditions January 2020
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
Content 1 Executive Summary 1
2 The Thai Economy 3
2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector
2.2 Domestic Demand 5 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position
2.3 The global economy and external sector 7 The global economy External sector Balance of payments
2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 9 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates
2.5 Financial stability 11 Inflation Labor market External stability
3 Link to related statistics and contents 13
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
1
1. Executive Summary
In January 2020, the Thai economy continued to be on a decelerating trend. The value of merchandise exports excluding gold, manufacturing production, private investment indicators, and public spending continued to contract. Private consumption indicators expanded at a slower pace. However, farm income accelerated whereas the tourism sector expanded at a rate close to the previous month.
On the stability front, headline inflation edged up mainly on the back of an increase in energy prices partly due to the low base effect from domestic retail petroleum prices last year. The current account registered a smaller surplus from the trade balance. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus from both the asset and the liability positions.
Details of the economic conditions are as follows: The value of merchandise exports expanded by 3.5 percent from the same period last year.
Excluding gold, exports value growth remained negative at 1.3 percent. The continued contraction was due to exports of 1) petroleum-related products such as chemical and petrochemical products, partly due to the slowdown in trading partners’ demand; 2) agricultural products especially rice as a result of price competition from competing countries and supply affected by the drought; and 3) electronic products which turned into contraction from the high base effect last year. However, exports of electrical appliances and hard disk drive continued to expand thanks to the relocation of production base to Thailand in the previous periods. Also, exports of agro-manufacturing products continued to expand from sugar.
Private investment indicators continued to deteriorate from the same period last year. The slowdown in domestic and external demand, the low capacity utilization rate, and the fragile business sentiment led to the delay in business investment. This was reflected by the continual contraction of investment in machinery and equipment from domestic machinery sales, and the number of newly registered motor vehicles, as well as import of capital goods which turned into contraction. In addition, investment in construction contracted from both permitted construction area and construction material sales.
Public spending, excluding transfers, continued to contract from both current and capital expenditures. Current expenditures contracted from purchases on goods and services and compensation of civil servants, partly due to the high base effect last year. Capital expenditures of central government continued to contract as a result of the delayed enactment of the FY2020 budget. Meanwhile, state enterprise’s capital expenditures also contracted from disbursement of some energy-related and transportation agencies.
Private consumption indicators expanded at a slower pace from the same period last year, consistent with softening household income and consumer confidence, together with financial institutions’ tightening of credit standards after credit quality deteriorated. Although farm income expanded well in this month, the outlook for this year was likely to be subdued because of the drought. The deceleration in private consumption indicators was from spending on services although spending on non-durable goods slightly improved from sales of consumer goods after the decline in the previous periods. Additionally, spending on durable goods less contracted from vehicle sales partly due to the benefit from the new car model launch. Consistently, manufacturing production contracted in line with softer domestic and external demand.
The value of merchandise imports was unchanged from the same period last year. However, excluding gold, imports value expanded by 1.4 percent. This was attributable to the expansion in imports of 1) fuel, both in terms of price and quantity; and 2) consumer goods such as air conditioner and garment.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
2
Nevertheless, imports of raw materials and intermediate goods as well as capital goods excluding aircrafts, ships, floating structures, and locomotive, contracted in line with the contraction of merchandise exports, manufacturing production, and private investment indicators.
The number of foreign tourist arrivals expanded a rate close to the previous month with 2 .5 percent, mainly from the expansion in the number of Malaysian Russian and Hong Kong tourists as a result of Chinese lunar new year that came earlier than last year. However, the number of Chinese tourists contracted due to the announcement of Chinese government to ban on outbound group tour since January 24, 2020 after the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.
On the stability front, headline inflation stood at 1.05 percent, accelerating from the previous month on the back of an increase in energy prices, partly due to the low base effect from domestic retail petroleum prices last year. Meanwhile, core inflation slightly decreased. The current account registered a smaller surplus from the trade balance. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a surplus from both the asset and the liability positions. The former was due to the withdrawal of deposit abroad by the Foreign Investment Fund (FIF). While, the latter was mainly a result of foreign direct investment especially in real estate business, and the short-term loan of Thai Other Depository Corporations (ODCs).
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
3
2.1 Supply
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
MPI Classified by Export Share
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%
Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand
-0.6 %
3.6 %-1.9 %
%MoM sa
Farm income expanded at a faster pace from the same period last year due to the acceleration of agricultural prices. Manufacturing production continued to contract at a similar rate as the previous month. Meanwhile, services sector grew at a similar rate to last month.
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20
(%YoY)Share2016R 2019
2019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanP %MoM sa
Food & Beverages 1 . . . 1. 1.2 2. . . . Automotives 1 . . 2.1 12. . 2 . 1 . 1 . . - Passenger Cars . . . 1 . . 2 . 2 .2 2 .1 . - Commercial Vehicles .2 . 2. 1 . . 21. 1 . .2 . - Engine 1. . . 1 .2 . 1 . . . 2. Petroleum . . .2 11. . 1 .2 . 2. 2.2Chemicals .2 .2 . 1.1 1. . 1. .2 . Rubbers & Plastics . .2 . . . . 2. . 1.1Cement & Construction . 1.2 .2 2. . 1. 2. 2.2 . IC & Semiconductors . . .1 . 12.2 .1 . .1 .1Electrical Appliances . . . . 1. . 1 . 1 . . Textiles & Apparels . .2 . . . 1 . .2 . . Hard Disk Drive . . 1 . . . . 1 . 1 . 2. Others 1 . . . . .2 .1 2. 1. . MPI 1 . . 1. . .2 . . . . MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod
1 . 2. .1 1. 2. 2. .
Capacity Utilization (SA) 66.0 . . . . . .
Real Farm IncomeIndex sa (Jan 2014 = 100)
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
60708090
100110120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Real farm income saReal farm income sa, 3mma
Farm Income(%YoY) 2 1 2 1 2 2
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan
Nominal farm incomeP 2.4 2. 2. .2 . 1. .
Agricultural productionP 0.6 1. . 2. 2. . 2.2
Agricultural price
1.8 . 2. 2. . . .
Nominal Farm Income
Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
4
Capacity Utilization (sa)
(%) Weight 2016R
2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Janp
Food & Beverages 1 . . . . . . .
Automotives 1 . . . .1 1. 2. .
Petroleum . . 2. . . . .
Chemicals .2 . . . . . .
Rubbers & Plastics . . . . . .1 .2
Cement & Construction . . . . . . .
IC & Semiconductors . . 1.1 . . 1.2 2.
Electrical Appliances . . 1. . . .2 .
Textiles & Apparels . . . . 2. . .
Hard Disk Drive . . .1 2. 1.2 2.2 2.
Others 1 . . . . .2 . .
CAPU sa 1 . . . . . . .
Source: Office of Industrial Economics
Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data
* The latest month was estimated by the BOT80
90
100
110
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production
Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand
%MoM sa
7.5 %7.5 %
Dec = 0.6 %
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 17%)Market Services (share 83%)
Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Transport (8%) Information (5%)Trade (32%) Finance (14%)Hotel & Restaurant (10%) Professional Services (4%)
Service Production Index (SPI) by SectorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
5
2.2 Domestic Demand
405060708090
100
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years
Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)
Average 5 years = 76.2
Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Private consumption indicators expanded at a slower pace compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, private investment indicators and public spending, excluding transfers, markedly contracted from the corresponding month last year.
% YoY 20192 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanP %MoM
Permitted Construction Area (9mma) . .2 . .2 . . . 2.
Construction Materials Index . . 2. . . . . . Real Imports of Capital Goods . . 2. . . . . -2.5
Real Domestic Machinery Sales . . . . . . . 0.8
Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment . 2. . 2. . 2 . . 11.3
Private Investment Index 2. .2 . 2. . . . -2.3
Private Investment Indicators
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad
Source: Bank of Thailand
6080100120140160180
8090
100110120130140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Jan 2014 = 100
Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**
%YoY 2 2 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanP %MoM sa
Non-durables index 2.2 2. . . .2 . . . Semi-durables index . .2 . . . . . . Durables index 2. 2. .2 . . 2. . .2Services index 2. 2. 2. 2. .2 . . .
less Net tourist spending . . . .2 2. . . 2.2
PCI 2. . . .2 2. . .2 .
Private Consumption Indicators
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
90100110120130140150160
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, mmaFuel Index, sa (RHS)Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel IndexJan 2014 = 100
Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Semi-durable Index sa,3mma
Durable Index sa, 3mma
Jan 2014 = 100Durable and Semi-durable Indices
Source: Bank of Thailand
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
6
Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment
Fiscal Position (Cash basis)Billion baht FY2018 FY2019
FY2019 FY2020Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Nov Dec Jan
Revenue 2, 2, 2 (%YoY) . . 2. 2. 2. . . 2. . .2 Expenditure1/ 2, 2 2, 2 2 2 2 (%YoY) . .2 2.2 . . . . 2 . . 2 . Budgetary B/L 2 22Non-Budgetary B/L 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Cash B/L (CG) 2 2 2 Primary balance 2/ 2 2 2 2 Net Financing 2 Treasury B/L 2
Source : Bank of Thailand
Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)
40
50
60
Jan 2014
Jul Jan 2015
Jul Jan 2016
Jul Jan 2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)
Apr 20 52.4
Jan 20 .
Business Sentiment Index
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
Jan-20.4%
Jan-35.3%
Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Billion baht
Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand
0
10
20
30
40
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020
State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht
Jan-19.6%
4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000
707580859095
100105
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)
Investment in Construction1,000 m2
9mmaIndex sa
(Jan 2014=100)
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Investment in Machinery and EquipmentIndex sa
(Jan 2014 = 100)
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Economic and Monetary Condition, January 2020
7
2.3 The Global Economy and External Sector
%YoYShare 2019
2019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanJan
(%MoM)
Consumer . 2. . . . . . . . Raw material & Intermediate . . . . . . . . .2o/w Fuel . .2 .2 2 . . 2 .2 . . . o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel . . . . . .2 . . .
Capital 2 . 2. . . . 2. . . . Others . . . . 2 . . . . . Total (BOP Basis) . . . .2 . . . . .
Ex. Gold . 2. . 2. . . . . Ex.
Gold&Fuel- 2. 2. 2. . . . . .
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. 2/ Import of consumer goods In July includes temporarily imported jewellery for exhibition but is excluded in the total import value in BOP basis due to no changes in ownership.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
Import ValueDec 2019 = 17.2 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 16.8 Bn USD
Jan 2020 = 19.3 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 19.0 Bn USD
Dec 2019 = 19.1 Bn USD Ex. gold = 18.9 Bn USDEx.Gold = 15.8 Bn USD
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
%YoYShare 2019
2019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanJan
(%MoM)Agriculture . . . . . . . . 2. Fishery . . 2. .2 2. . . 2. . Manufacturing . . . .2 . . .2 . 2.
Agro-manufacturing 2. . 2. 2.2 . .2 . 2. .2Electronics .2 . . 2. . . . . .
Electrical Appliances . . . . 2. . . . 2.
Automotive . . .2 . . . . . . Machinery & Equipment . . . . .2 .2 . .2 .
Petroleum Related . . . . . 2 . . . . Total (BOP Basis) . .2 . 2. . . . . .2
Ex. Gold . . . . . . . . Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related . . 2. 2. 2. . . 2.
Export ValueJan 2020 = 19.7 Bn USD Ex. gold = 18.5 Bn USD
75
85
95
105
115
125
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
PH INDOMYTHTWCNSGKR
90
100
110
120
130
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
US (Jan 20) Euro Area* (Dec 19) Japan (Dec 19)
G3 Retail Sales
Note: *Volume Index Source: Bloomberg
Index (Jan 2015 = 100)
Jan 20
The current account registered a smaller surplus, mainly from the decrease in trade balance. Meanwhile, the capital and financial accounts registered a surplus from both the asset and the liability positions.
Economic and Monetary Condition, January 2020
8
Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020E
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanE
1. Assets 2 TDI 2 2 - Equity 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2
Thai portfolio investment 2 2 - Equity security investment 2 2 2 - Debt security investment 2
Loans 2 2 Other investments 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 22 - Deposits abroad 2 2 2 2
2. Liabilities FDI 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2
Foreign portfolio investment 2 2 2 2 - Equity security investment 2 - Debt security investment 2
Loans 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2 2
Total financial flows (1+2) 2 2 2
Net Financial Flows
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
50
100
150
200
250
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)
Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)
Tourists Classified by Nationality
Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand
%YoY (Share in
2019)2019
2019 2020%MoM
saH1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanP
China (27.6%) . . . . . . . .
Malaysia (10.5%) . . . . .2 . 2 . .2
Asia ex. China & Malaysia (30.4%)
. . . . . . . .
Russia (3.7%) . . . 2. . . .2 .2
Europe ex. Russia (13.2%)
. . . 2. . . . .
India (5.0%) 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2. 2. .
Others (9.6%) . . . . 2. . . . Total(million persons)
.2 (39.8)
. (19.8)
. (20.0)
.2 .
. (10.3)
2. (3.9)
2. (3.8)
.
Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin
Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Balance of Payments
Billion USD 2019P201 P 2020E
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanE
Trade Balance 2 . 2. . . . . . Exports (f.o.b.) 2 . 2 . 22. . .2 . .
%YoY .2 . 2. . . . . Imports (f.o.b.) 2 . . . . .2 .2 .
%YoY . . .2 . . . . Net Services, Income & Transfers . . . . . 2.2 . Current Account . . . .2 . . . Capital and Financial Account 2. . . . . 2.2 2. Overall Balance . . . . . . .
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
9
2.4 Monetary and Financial Conditions
Note: net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others.
Billion baht Net Changes in Outstanding Loans
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
0.6
1.2
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8Oc
t-18
Jan-
19Ap
r-19
Jul-1
9Oc
t-19
Jan-
20Ja
n-17
Apr-1
7Ju
l-17
Oct-1
7Ja
n-18
Apr-1
8Ju
l-18
Oct-1
8Ja
n-19
Apr-1
9Ju
l-19
Oct-1
9Ja
n-20
MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)
BusinessHousehold
%
Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;
(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET
Billion baht
Changes in Total Corporate Financing
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Jul-1
8
Oct-1
8
Jan-
19
Apr-1
9
Jul-1
9
Oct-1
9
Jan-
20
Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA
Jan 20P
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Jul-1
8
Oct-1
8
Jan-
19
Apr-1
9
Jul-1
9
Oct-1
9
Jan-
20
1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y
Government Bond Yields
Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA
As of 25 Feb 20
1.000.870.81
1.080.97
Commercial Bank Interest Rates*% p.a. 2018 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q /19 Q4/19 Jan 20 25 Feb 20
2-month deposit rate
Average of 5 largest Thai banks**
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
MLR
Average of 5 largest Thai banks
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
MRR
Average of 5 largest Thai banks
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
1.37
1.46
1.11
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.46
8.54
1.42
1.48
1.19
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.47
8.54
1.46
1.48
1.19
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.50
8.54
1.4
1.
1.1
6.28
7.31
7.58
8.
8.54
1.33
1.51
1.11
6.08
7.31
7.59
8.
8.44
1.29
1.
1.11
6.08
7.27
7.59
8.
8.54
0.98
1.40
1.04
5.98
7.27
7.59
8.
8.44
End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya
Source: Bank of Thailand
Total corporate financing increased compared with the previous month mainly from debt securities and business credits. New loans extended to private sector expanded from the previous month. The monthly average of Thai baht against the U.S. dollar in January 2020 and the NEER depreciated compared with the previous month.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
10
Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand
% p.a.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
30-D
ec-1
624
-Jan-
1715
-Feb
-17
8-M
ar-1
729
-Mar
-17
24-A
pr-1
717
-May
-17
7-Ju
n-17
28-Ju
n-17
20-Ju
l-17
11-A
ug-1
74-
Sep-
1725
-Sep
-17
17-O
ct-1
79-
Nov-
1730
-Nov
-17
25-D
ec-1
717
-Jan-
187-
Feb-
1828
-Feb
-18
22-M
ar-1
817
-Apr
-18
9-M
ay-1
831
-May
-18
21-Ju
n-18
12-Ju
l-18
6-Au
g-18
28-A
ug-1
818
-Sep
-18
9-Oc
t-18
1-No
v-18
22-N
ov-1
817
-Dec
-18
9-Ja
n-19
30-Ja
n-19
21-F
eb-1
914
-Mar
-19
4-Ap
r-19
30-A
pr-1
924
-May
-19
17-Ju
n-19
8-Ju
l-19
30-Ju
l-19
21-A
ug-1
911
-Sep
-19
2-Oc
t-19
25-O
ct-1
915
-Nov
-19
9-De
c-19
2-Ja
n-20
23-Ja
n-20
14-F
eb-2
0
HKD THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD
As of 25 Feb 2020
Regional Exchange Rate Volatility
-0.8%-0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
-0.1% -0.1% 0.0%
0.4% 0.5% 0.7%
1.3%
1.7%
2.1%
-2.5%
-0.6%-0.2%
0.2%
-1.8%
-0.7% -0.3%
-2.7%-2.1%
-0.4%-1.1%
-1.8%
0.0%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
THB GBP INR PHP EUR JPY VND SGD KRW TWD CNY MYR IDR
Avg of Jan 20 compared to avg of Dec 19
Avg of Feb 20 compared to avg of Jan 20
Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD
Exchange Rate Movement
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
35.0
36.0108110112114116118120122124126128130132
29-D
ec-1
7
16-F
eb-1
8
5-Ap
r-18
28-M
ay-1
8
13-Ju
l-18
3-Se
p-18
19-O
ct-1
8
7-De
c-18
28-Ja
n-19
15-M
ar-1
9
8-M
ay-1
9
26-Ju
n-19
14-A
ug-1
9
30-S
ep-1
9
18-N
ov-1
9
8-Ja
n-20
25-F
eb-2
0
NEER25
USDTHB (RHS)
Note: Monthy average rate Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Exchange RatesIndex (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)
Appreciation
Feb 2 2 USDTHB = 31.25NEER25 = 123.19
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
11
2.5 Financial Stability
Headline inflation edged up from the previous month, mainly driven by an increase in energy prices. This was partly due to the low base effect of domestic retail petroleum prices in the same period last year. External stability remained strong, providing sufficient cushion against global financial market volatility.
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
Core inflation contribution%YoY
Jan0.47%
( ) Share in Core Inflation
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)
Headline inflation contribution%YoY
Jan1.05%( ) Share in Headline Inflation
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
80859095
100105110115
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Total Agriculture (31%) Manufacturing (17%)Construction (6%) Trade (17%) Service (29%)
Employment Index (December 2019)
Note: Data from 2014 onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing Census.( ) denotes share in total employment
Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014=100)
0.5
1.0
1.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Unemployment Rate (December 2019)
Dec 2019Unemployment rate 1.0 %Unemployment rate (sa) 1.1 %
%
Note: Data from 2014 onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing CensusSource: Labor Force Survey, NSO
Employment (December 2019)
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS)Not in Labor Force (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Not in Labor Force (sa) (RHS)
Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT
Thousand persons sa, 3mma
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
12
External Stability Indicators
Criteria 2019P2019P 2020E
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanE
Solvency Indicators Current Account / GDP (%)
Debt / GDP (%) < /
Debt / XGS1/ (%) < /
Debt Service Ratio (%)
Liquidity Indicators
Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time
Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times
ST Debt / Total Debt (%)
Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)
Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data
External Debt Outstanding
Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data
Billion USD 2019P2019P 2020E
Change Jan20-Dec19
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanE Total
1. General government .2 . .2 . .2 .2 . . 2. Central Bank* . 5. . . . . . . 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) . . . . . . . . 4. Other Sectors 5. .5 5. . 5. 5. 5. .
- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) .2 . .2 .5 .2 .2 . .2- Non Financial Corporations (NFC) 5. .5 5. .2 5. 5. . . O/W Foreign Trade Credit 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . .
5. Total . . . .2 . . 2. . Short-term (%) . .5 . 5. . . . Long-term (%) 5.2 2.5 5.2 . 5.2 5.2 5.2
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
13
3. Link to related statistics and contents
Agricultural sector
Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices
Agricultural production: Agricultural products
More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th Manufacturing sector
Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)
Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate
More information: Office of Industrial Economics www.oie.go.th Real estate sector
Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)
More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/ Public finance
Central government revenue: Government revenue
Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)
Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)
More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th Labor market
Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)
Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)
Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)
More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
14
Inflation
Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)
More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th
Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand
Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index
Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report
Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey
Economic and Monetary Conditions, January 2020
15
Contact
Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637
Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650
Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300
Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096
Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647
Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639
Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877
The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147
External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726
Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186
Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090
Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645
Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098
Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098
External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636