Economic and Market Watch Report - NTREIS · # Homes on the Market * 69 79 # Homes Sold ** 30 21 # New Homes Built NA NA *** Avg # of Days on Market 109 81 * Available as of Dec.
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Economic and Market Watch Report
4th Quarter, 2006
*Click on a County to view economic and real estate information at the county and zip code level
Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission in any form is prohibited without writtenpermission.
North Texas Real Estate Information Systems, Inc.
Index
North Texas Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (NTREIS) is a real estate information and technology solution provider serving the real estate community in a coverage area exceeding 16,000 square miles in North Texas, including the Dallas Fort Worth Metropolitan Area.
NTREIS provides information management services to over 16,000 MLS subscribers of its 18 shareholder REALTOR Associations, including over 3,000 real estate offices.
In addition to its information management platform; NTREIS researches, develops and delivers various technology products and services through strategic alliances, utilizing a sales and distribution network which includes its shareholder REALTOR Associations.
Economic and Market Watch Report
Local ReportOklahoma
1 Bryan County ...............................................................................................................Texas
2 Anderson County .........................................................................................................3 Bosque County .............................................................................................................4 Collin County ...............................................................................................................6 Comanche County .......................................................................................................7 Cooke County ...............................................................................................................8 Dallas County ...............................................................................................................
11 Delta County ................................................................................................................12 Denton County .............................................................................................................14 Ellis County ..................................................................................................................16 Erath County ...............................................................................................................17 Fannin County .............................................................................................................19 Franklin County ..........................................................................................................20 Freestone County .........................................................................................................21 Grayson County ...........................................................................................................23 Hamilton County .........................................................................................................24 Henderson County .......................................................................................................25 Hill County ...................................................................................................................26 Hood County ................................................................................................................27 Hopkins County ...........................................................................................................28 Hunt County .................................................................................................................30 Jack County .................................................................................................................31 Johnson County ...........................................................................................................33 Kaufman County .........................................................................................................35 Lamar County ..............................................................................................................36 Limestone County ........................................................................................................
37 Montague County ........................................................................................................38 Navarro County ...........................................................................................................40 Palo Pinto County ........................................................................................................41 Parker County .............................................................................................................42 Rains County ................................................................................................................43 Red River County ........................................................................................................44 Rockwall County .........................................................................................................45 Smith County ...............................................................................................................46 Somervell County ........................................................................................................47 Stephens County ..........................................................................................................48 Tarrant County ............................................................................................................51 Van Zandt County .......................................................................................................52 Wise County .................................................................................................................53 Wood County ...............................................................................................................
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 337 jobs were added to the payrolls of Bryan County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.4% during the third quarter to 3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
NAAverage Price $218,000
NA# Homes on the Market * 16
NA# Homes Sold ** 1
NA# New Homes Built 16 ***
NAAvg # of Days on Market 152 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.
** May not add to total of zip codes.
Zip Code Average Price Price Change***
Total #Homes Sold
(Quarter)
% Change in #Homes Sold
***
Average Dayson Market
% of Asking Price(Sold/List
Price)
Data by Zip Codes for Q4 2006
74731 $218,000 -0.91% 1 0.00% 96.9%152
1
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Anderson County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Anderson County saw 21 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 6.4% during the third quarter to 6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$160,000Average Price $415,000
10# Homes on the Market * 14
1# Homes Sold ** 1
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
208Avg # of Days on Market 12 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.
** May not add to total of zip codes.
Zip Code Average Price Price Change***
Total #Homes Sold
(Quarter)
% Change in #Homes Sold
***
Average Dayson Market
% of Asking Price(Sold/List
Price)
Data by Zip Codes for Q4 2006
75763 $415,000 35.18% 1 0.00% 96.7%12
2
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Bosque County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Bosque County saw 101 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.8% during the third quarter to 4.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$156,700Average Price $83,000
69# Homes on the Market * 79
30# Homes Sold ** 21
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
109Avg # of Days on Market 81 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Collin County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 3,863 jobs were added to the payrolls of Collin County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4% during the third quarter to 3.7% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$241,100Average Price $247,800
4,792# Homes on the Market * 6,018
3,981# Homes Sold ** 2,951
2,981# New Homes Built 1,801 ***
56Avg # of Days on Market 66 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Comanche County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Comanche County saw 250 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5% during the third quarter to 4.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$62,200Average Price $60,500
18# Homes on the Market * 20
2# Homes Sold ** 3
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
46Avg # of Days on Market 70 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Cooke County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Cooke County saw 77 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.9% during the third quarter to 3.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$141,200Average Price $106,800
184# Homes on the Market * 226
85# Homes Sold ** 58
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
94Avg # of Days on Market 83 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Dallas County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 12,422 jobs were added to the payrolls of Dallas County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.5% during the third quarter to 5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$215,900Average Price $209,100
10,207# Homes on the Market * 12,813
6,611# Homes Sold ** 5,556
2,534# New Homes Built 1,888 ***
65Avg # of Days on Market 70 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Delta County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 27 jobs were added to the payrolls of Delta County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.7% during the third quarter to 5.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$126,500Average Price $75,900
42# Homes on the Market * 42
6# Homes Sold ** 11
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
158Avg # of Days on Market 163 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Denton County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 3,320 jobs were added to the payrolls of Denton County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$208,500Average Price $217,000
3,693# Homes on the Market * 4,443
3,140# Homes Sold ** 2,285
758# New Homes Built 649 ***
56Avg # of Days on Market 64 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Ellis County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 701 jobs were added to the payrolls of Ellis County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$153,400Average Price $152,100
850# Homes on the Market * 1,089
503# Homes Sold ** 408
390# New Homes Built 322 ***
82Avg # of Days on Market 86 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Erath County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 156 jobs were added to the payrolls of Erath County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.6% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$111,300Average Price $116,600
175# Homes on the Market * 182
85# Homes Sold ** 66
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
85Avg # of Days on Market 110 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Fannin County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Fannin County saw 73 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.9% during the third quarter to 5.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$113,300Average Price $96,900
215# Homes on the Market * 272
68# Homes Sold ** 57
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
104Avg # of Days on Market 108 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Fannin County, TX
Zip Code Average Price Price Change***
Total #Homes Sold
(Quarter)
% Change in #Homes Sold
***
Average Dayson Market
% of Asking Price(Sold/List
Price)
Data by Zip Codes for Q4 2006
OTHER $87,800 -47.04% 2 0.00% 91.2%225
18
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Franklin County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Franklin County saw 58 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 4.1% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$213,900Average Price $50,000
13# Homes on the Market * 17
11# Homes Sold ** 1
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
137Avg # of Days on Market 16 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.
** May not add to total of zip codes.
Zip Code Average Price Price Change***
Total #Homes Sold
(Quarter)
% Change in #Homes Sold
***
Average Dayson Market
% of Asking Price(Sold/List
Price)
Data by Zip Codes for Q4 2006
OTHER $50,000 -7.92% 1 0.00% 72.5%16
19
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Freestone County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 76 jobs were added to the payrolls of Freestone County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$182,700Average Price $93,500
29# Homes on the Market * 28
11# Homes Sold ** 11
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
113Avg # of Days on Market 77 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Grayson County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 887 jobs were added to the payrolls of Grayson County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$134,800Average Price $115,300
853# Homes on the Market * 1,074
412# Homes Sold ** 327
5# New Homes Built 6 ***
95Avg # of Days on Market 98 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Hamilton County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Hamilton County saw 220 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$79,600Average Price $79,700
28# Homes on the Market * 29
5# Homes Sold ** 5
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
166Avg # of Days on Market 136 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.
** May not add to total of zip codes.
Zip Code Average Price Price Change***
Total #Homes Sold
(Quarter)
% Change in #Homes Sold
***
Average Dayson Market
% of Asking Price(Sold/List
Price)
Data by Zip Codes for Q4 2006
76457 $79,700 -13.84% 5 400.00% 94.7%136
23
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Henderson County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Henderson County saw 216 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.2% during the third quarter to 4.8% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$184,100Average Price $162,500
252# Homes on the Market * 302
94# Homes Sold ** 70
24# New Homes Built 11 ***
123Avg # of Days on Market 127 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Hill County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Hill County saw 112 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.5% during the third quarter to 5.1% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$108,000Average Price $112,300
235# Homes on the Market * 280
82# Homes Sold ** 74
0# New Homes Built 1 ***
107Avg # of Days on Market 135 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Hood County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 229 jobs were added to the payrolls of Hood County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$190,600Average Price $183,300
407# Homes on the Market * 483
297# Homes Sold ** 222
0# New Homes Built 3 ***
78Avg # of Days on Market 68 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Hopkins County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Hopkins County saw 113 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$103,200Average Price $125,200
159# Homes on the Market * 182
67# Homes Sold ** 63
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
81Avg # of Days on Market 115 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Hunt County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 419 jobs were added to the payrolls of Hunt County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.4% during the third quarter to 4.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$105,500Average Price $112,400
476# Homes on the Market * 597
194# Homes Sold ** 167
23# New Homes Built 28 ***
87Avg # of Days on Market 99 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Hunt County, TX
Zip Code Average Price Price Change***
Total #Homes Sold
(Quarter)
% Change in #Homes Sold
***
Average Dayson Market
% of Asking Price(Sold/List
Price)
Data by Zip Codes for Q4 2006
OTHER $167,800 0.84% 20 11.11% 95.7%97
29
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Jack County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Jack County saw 131 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$81,500Average Price $84,400
6# Homes on the Market * 7
1# Homes Sold ** 4
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
174Avg # of Days on Market 119 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.
** May not add to total of zip codes.
Zip Code Average Price Price Change***
Total #Homes Sold
(Quarter)
% Change in #Homes Sold
***
Average Dayson Market
% of Asking Price(Sold/List
Price)
Data by Zip Codes for Q4 2006
76458 $84,400 237.60% 4 300.00% 96.0%120
30
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Johnson County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 1,189 jobs were added to the payrolls of Johnson County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$122,400Average Price $120,900
809# Homes on the Market * 954
470# Homes Sold ** 408
281# New Homes Built 268 ***
77Avg # of Days on Market 75 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Kaufman County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 451 jobs were added to the payrolls of Kaufman County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.6% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$134,800Average Price $135,400
667# Homes on the Market * 862
416# Homes Sold ** 342
157# New Homes Built 102 ***
81Avg # of Days on Market 74 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Lamar County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Lamar County saw 308 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.7% during the third quarter to 5.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$124,100Average Price $105,900
105# Homes on the Market * 132
26# Homes Sold ** 18
0# New Homes Built 0 ***
88Avg # of Days on Market 63 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Limestone County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Limestone County saw 4 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$40,500Average Price $118,800
4# Homes on the Market * 2
2# Homes Sold ** 2
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
106Avg # of Days on Market 11 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Montague County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Montague County saw 8 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.2% during the third quarter to 3.8% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$108,100Average Price $94,000
54# Homes on the Market * 58
25# Homes Sold ** 8
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
125Avg # of Days on Market 119 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Navarro County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 153 jobs were added to the payrolls of Navarro County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.4% during the third quarter to 4.9% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$105,300Average Price $107,700
238# Homes on the Market * 297
88# Homes Sold ** 72
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
75Avg # of Days on Market 91 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Palo Pinto County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 17 jobs were added to the payrolls of Palo Pinto County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.6% during the third quarter to 4.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$122,700Average Price $149,400
156# Homes on the Market * 167
48# Homes Sold ** 54
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
78Avg # of Days on Market 87 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Parker County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 834 jobs were added to the payrolls of Parker County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$181,300Average Price $173,300
857# Homes on the Market * 1,105
451# Homes Sold ** 360
101# New Homes Built 96 ***
84Avg # of Days on Market 85 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Rains County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 21 jobs were added to the payrolls of Rains County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$121,400Average Price $112,900
70# Homes on the Market * 93
15# Homes Sold ** 16
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
136Avg # of Days on Market 141 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Red River County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Red River County saw 60 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.8% during the third quarter to 5.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$121,300Average Price $135,000
7# Homes on the Market * 10
3# Homes Sold ** 1
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
46Avg # of Days on Market 49 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.
** May not add to total of zip codes.
Zip Code Average Price Price Change***
Total #Homes Sold
(Quarter)
% Change in #Homes Sold
***
Average Dayson Market
% of Asking Price(Sold/List
Price)
Data by Zip Codes for Q4 2006
75436 $135,000 - 1 - 95.7%49
43
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Rockwall County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 331 jobs were added to the payrolls of Rockwall County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$215,500Average Price $208,300
780# Homes on the Market * 954
433# Homes Sold ** 343
277# New Homes Built 202 ***
77Avg # of Days on Market 88 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Smith County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Smith County saw 170 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.6% during the third quarter to 4.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$155,500Average Price $172,700
88# Homes on the Market * 101
23# Homes Sold ** 26
93# New Homes Built 75 ***
62Avg # of Days on Market 103 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Somervell County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 38 jobs were added to the payrolls of Somervell County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.5% during the third quarter to 3.9% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$149,000Average Price $160,300
69# Homes on the Market * 76
26# Homes Sold ** 16
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
69Avg # of Days on Market 92 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Stephens County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Stephens County saw 101 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.5% during the third quarter to 4.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$72,000Average Price $168,300
4# Homes on the Market * 2
3# Homes Sold ** 2
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
148Avg # of Days on Market 79 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Tarrant County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 13,889 jobs were added to the payrolls of Tarrant County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$176,900Average Price $171,600
9,841# Homes on the Market * 12,536
7,140# Homes Sold ** 5,481
3,579# New Homes Built 2,267 ***
65Avg # of Days on Market 68 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Van Zandt County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Van Zandt County saw 1 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 4.2% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$112,600Average Price $118,200
237# Homes on the Market * 306
76# Homes Sold ** 67
0# New Homes Built 0 ***
90Avg # of Days on Market 112 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Wise County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 456 jobs were added to the payrolls of Wise County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$150,400Average Price $135,100
358# Homes on the Market * 430
169# Homes Sold ** 126
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
83Avg # of Days on Market 87 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
Local Report
Wood County, TX
1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 86 jobs were added to the payrolls of Wood County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5% during the third quarter to 4.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.
Labor Market :
Housing Market :
(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07
$123,200Average Price $130,400
108# Homes on the Market * 145
42# Homes Sold ** 23
NA# New Homes Built NA ***
98Avg # of Days on Market 93 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
55
Trends
Where the Sales Are By Ken Fears Manager, Regional Economics Back in October of 2005, mortgage rates began what was to be a 10 month climb. At its peak the 30-year fixed rate mortgage reached a monthly average of 6.76%. Since then, mortgage rates have moderated and currently stand at 6.22% according to Freddie Mac. Even at this rate, though, climbing rates have done their damage. The payment-shock that potential buyers experienced when they did the numbers last fall had a large psychological effect. The monthly payments that these would-be buyers faced surged in a matter of months. For many, this increase pushed them out of the range of homeownership. While others, convinced of the instability of the market, chose to move to the sideline and wait for the market to settle. The immediate effect was a sharp decrease in sales, while prices remained relatively steady. But favorable income and employment information tells us that strong levels of demand remain lurking in the shadows, looking for buying opportunities. Furthermore there has been much speculation that sales at the upper levels have been hit hardest and that demand at the lower price ranges remains robust.
$600K> 521 566 8.6% Now that the market has had a year to absorb the impact of rising mortgage rates, it is worth identifying its effects and which sectors have proven the most resilient. Based on the sales information from the fourth quarter of 2006 (October, November, and December) and comparing it with the same time period in 2005, we see that:
• The most homes are being sold in the lower price ranges. • The fewest homes are sold in the upper price ranges.
• Compared to last fall, the upper price ranges have proven to be the most resilient in terms
of retaining their level of sales.
• However, sales have softened most in the lower price range. So how has the area covered by North Texas Real Estate Information Systems faired relative to the rest of the country? Locally, sales are off by 0.4%, which leads the national average of -10.1%. We also find that there does not appear to be a build up of demand at the lower price levels. Looking forward, keeping monthly payments in a reasonable range will be critical to continued sales growth. With mortgage rates steady, but likely to increase moderately, some additional willingness on the part of sellers to make price concessions will help move homes. By years end, though, we expect sales growth to flatten out in most local markets and to even gain traction in a few.
Chief Economist’s Commentary
56
An Old Year of Contraction; A New Year of Stabilityby David Lereah, Chief Economist
We begin the New Year with a hint of optimism. The glass was half empty in 2006 – home sales fellthroughout the year. But the glass looks to be half full in 2007. While property speculation has ceased, signsof a return to home buying have surfaced and inventory levels have topped out. REALTORS® and lendersa like are encouraged, but guarded, about 2007.
Last year was a year of contraction, a correction that was sorely needed after five years of a boominghousing market expansion. Home prices were inflated and property investors (and speculators) wereeverywhere at the end of 2005. That set the stage for 2006 to spiral downward. Home buyers stayed onthe sidelines because they could not afford the lofty-priced homes in the boom-inflicted regions. Somehouseholds also postponed buying because they believed prices would eventually drop, making them betteroff buying later rather than now. Property speculators fled, dumping inventories. Meanwhile, homeownerslooking to sell sat stubbornly tied to their listing prices.
Let’s be clear, though. The sky never did actually fall in 2006— or, to use that phrase that the media love,there were no “bubbles” bursting. But air did come out of some inflated balloons. According to our NationalAssociation of REALTORS® latest estimates for last year, existing home sales were down 8.2 percent froma year earlier. Similarly, new home sales were down 17.4 percent and housing starts were down 12.5percent. Our nation’s housing sector suffered a contraction, inhibiting over all GDP growth.
But 2007 is a new year and with it brings a cautious confidence and hopefulness. Home sales appear tohave bottomed out, having reached a cyclical low in September of last year. And in recent months, homesales are inching up, not down. Existing home sales experienced two consecutive monthly, albeit modest,gains from September to November. Inventories have stabilized, with the nation’s months’ supply hoveringaround 7.3 months since July of last year.
What all this means is that potential home buyers have amore favorable backdrop for buying today. It isnow a buyers market. Sellers are more flexible now, reducing prices and/or paying part of the closing costs.High inventories are now a positive rather than a negative for property buyers. Rising inventories in 2006reflected a deteriorating market place, keeping buyers on the sidelines. Stable inventories in 2007 representmore choices for buyers. Mortgage rates continue to hover near cyclical lows, keeping financing costs low.And depending on where you live, affordability conditions are most likely improving. Wages (income) areregistering healthy rates of growth, while home price growth is flat or down, broadening a household’sfinancial capacity to purchase property.
Yes, housing was bed-ridden at the end of last year. Existing home sales hit bottom during the fourth quarterof 2006. But after a frenzied five-year real estate boom, a reasonable prescription for our nation’s housingsector is regular rest and a healthy regimen of exercise. I expect housing to get back on its feet in 2007. Ourforecast calls for modest quarterly gains throughout this year, but year-over-year, home sales are expectedto fall by a modest 1.2 percent. New home sales are not expected to rebound until the third quarter of thisyear so year-over-year sales are expected to fall by a larger 9.7 percent.
Looking back, 2006 was a year of contraction. But looking forward, 2007 will represent a year of stability.Cheers to the New Year. Home buyers have a more favorable backdrop for buying today. It is now abuyers market.
57
Forecast
The ForecastBy Lawrence Yun, Senior Research Forecaster
National OutlookDespite all the news headlines over the past year about the housing market bubble and housing market slump,the final figures for 2006 actually look quite respectable. Home prices squeaked out a gain of 1.1% for theyear. That would mark 39 straight years of positive home price growth out of 39 years of reliable tracking ofthe data. Existing home sales in 2006 posted 6.48 million units — a 8.4% decline from 2005, but still the thirdbest year on record. The more cyclical new home sales fell by 17.3% to 1.06 million in 2006 for the fourthbest year on record. All in all, not that bad.
With the economy and job market performing nicely, 2007 will likely bring another respectable housing year.The latest fourth quarter economic expansion was much stronger than anticipated. GDP grew by 3.5% in thefourth quarter of 2006 — compared to the 2.4% originally forecast. The job market also is stronger. Aregular once-a-year benchmark revision by the Labor Department shows that it had undercounted payrollemployment by three quarters of a million people for most of 2006. That’s almost like saying that all of thejobs in the Super-Bowl celebrating Indianapolis area were left out of the original count and are only now beingadded to the official figures.
The current unemployment rate of 4.6% and the 2.15 million net new job additions over the past 12 monthsare both indications that the state of the U.S. economy is all fine and good. Record stock market and recordhousing market valuations also lifted the aggregate U.S. household net worth to $54 trillion — the highestever. That is five times as high as the U.S. annual consumption. In another words, we have enough wealthto buy the same amount of things and maintain the same standard of living for the next five years withouteven bothering to work.
But the U.S. will be working. It is part of the American spirit to want to accumulate even more wealth. Jobadditions overall should be close to 2 million in 2007. With mortgage rates projected to remain favorablethroughout 2007 (averaging 6.6%), the 2 million new jobs would typically lead to 250,000-350,000 more homesales. But we are still in an atypical year with a high housing inventory overhang brought on by the exit ofinvestors/speculators. The inventory needs to thin out before the housing market revs back up to cruisingspeed. Home sales are, therefore, projected to not increase in 2007. But come 2008 and beyond, a steady3% to 5% increase in home sales will be the norm. Home prices by then will also begin to outpace CPIinflation growth. Housing will again prove it can provide attractive long-term investment returns.
Local OutlookAbout 12% of all home sales were for second homes (investor rental homes and vacations homes) in the pastthree years in the local area. Therefore, there is a little risk of investor “dumping” properties onto the marketover the short term. With the job growth continuing to move nicely, the local housing market should continueits expansion. But some weakness associated with confidence (due to the slumps in the other parts of thecountry) may dampen enthusiasm to buy over the coming months. Home sales therefore could be neutral in2007 - neither a measurable increase nor decrease. Home sales will then rise 5% in 2008. Price growth willbe sluggish in 2007 in order to work off the excess inventory, but will easily outpace the inflation rate by 2008,and thereby providing solid financial returns to ownership.
Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates.* Billion dollarsSource: Forecast produced using Macroeconomic Advisers quarterly model of the U.S. economy.Assumptions and simulations by Dr. David Lereah and Dr. Lawrence Yun.
Economic and Housing Market Outlook: February 2007
2006 2007
Mortgage Rates The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to 6.14% inDecember – its lowest level since October 2005. The one-year adjustablerate was 5.45% in December.The slower housing market – compared to ayear ago – is helping keep rates low. Long-term rates are expected to risemoderately in 2007 to the mid 6% range.
Existing Home Sales rose for a second consecutive month inNovember,posting 6.28 million units (seasonally adjusted annualized rate).Sales have been bouncing around the 6.2-6.3 million level for the past fivemonths, indicating the market is stabilizing. Housing inventory decreased by40,000 units, and is at a 7.3 months’ supply at the current sales pace.
New Home Sales posted 1.05 million units in November (seasonallyadjusted annualized rate) – a 3.4% increase from October’s pace and thethird monthly increase in the past four months. New home inventory fell toa 6.3 months’ supply, higher than the level a year ago, but very close to a“balanced”market.Housing Starts rose 7% in November after having tumbled inOctober.Total starts posted 1.588 million units (seasonally adjusted,annualized). Multifamily starts were essentially unchanged, while single-family units rose by 96,000. Even so, housing starts are 26% lower thanthey were a year ago.
Employment Non-farm payrolls increased by 167,000 in December –beating most analysts’ expectations. November’s job creation figure wasrevised upward by 30,000. From December 2005 to December 2006, 1.8million net new jobs were added to the economy.
Purchase Applications The Mortgage Bankers Association’s purchaseapplications index rose in December to its highest level in 12 months to424.8.Declining mortgage rates and strong job growth contributed to bothpurchase and refinance activities.
Housing Affordability continues to improve. NAR’s housingaffordability index was 110.5 in November – the fourth consecutivemonthly increase and above the level in November 2005. The increase isdue to continuing low interest rates, and home price declines.
Inflation The consumer price index (CPI) was flat in November, as wasthe core index, which excludes the food and energy components. Energyprices decreased slightly – by 0.2%– in November. Price growth willlikely average a mild 0.2% monthly increase over the next three months,assuming moderate increases in fuel and heating costs as the winter getsinto full swing.
Economic Monitor This table reflects data available throughJanuary 5, 2007.
Nov 06 6.27Dec 06 6.14Dec 05 6.27
Slow rise, butcomfortable below7% for 2007.
Monthly IndicatorForecastRecent
Statistics
Likely DirectionOver the Next
Six Months
Oct 06 6,240Nov 06 6,280Nov 05 7,030
Modest but steadyrise
Fewer new homesbeing built andfewer new homesales opportunity
More cuts needed tobring down exces-sive inventory
Job gains to besimilar in thecoming months
Rising existing homesales (85% of themarket) more thanoffset thedecliningnew home sales.
Wages growing at 4% –more than double thepace of home pricegrowth of 1% to 2%
Notes: All rate are seasonally adjusted. New home sales, existing home sales, and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is shown asmonth-to-month change in thousands. Inflation is shown as the month-to-month change in the Consumer Price Index. Sources: NAR, Bureau of theCensus, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association