Economic Analysis of a Natural Disaster DISCUSSION October 15, 2008 Presented by Patrick O’Neil Brady Smith.

Economic Analysis of a Natural Disaster

DISCUSSION

October 15, 2008

Presented by

Patrick O’Neil

Brady Smith

Analysis Components

• Vulnerability Assessment

• Impact Analysis of a Catastrophic Event

• Effects of current and future mitigation strategies

• Package analysis template (model) for future use and transferability

Vulnerability Assessment

• Define geographic study area• Primary (coastal planning area) and Secondary (rest of county)

• Number of Businesses• Property Appraiser (value)• County Licenses• ES-202 data

• Number of Residences• Property Appraiser • Census

• Single-family• Multi-family

• Linkage and distribution of businesses• Some businesses will be impacted by others being out of

business• Survival of some businesses will be dependent upon their

market being there

Impact Analysis of a Catastrophic Event

• Moderate (Cat 3) & high end (Cat 5)• Net impacts

• Economic activity lost (costs)• Lost income and sales

• Tourism• Business closures and lost production

• Economic activity generated (gains)• Reconstruction

• Utilities, contractors, debris removal• Tax collection impacts

• Property taxes• Sales taxes

• Recovery cycle• Short run – 1 year• Medium – 3 year• Long-term – 5 to 7 years94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NormalDisaster

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Avera’s Impact Hypothesis

BoomBust

Effects of current and future mitigation strategies

• Planning• Construction mitigation

• Hardening, elevation, “relocation of activities”

• Business Preparedness• Mitigation• Continuity

• Recovery• State and Federal Assistance• Implementation of mitigation measures to

reduce future impacts• Mitigation Return on Investment (ROI)

Future Use and Transferability

• Package analysis template (model) for future use

• Work with other Florida Regional Planning Councils to develop models based on the template and using their localized datasets

Discussion

Patrick O’Neil, MBASenior [email protected]

ext. 31

Brady SmithSenior [email protected]

ext. 42

Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council

(727) 570 – 5151 (727) 570 - 5151