Ecn Ewis2 Wind Power Forecasting Final07mrt2011 Uitgepakt

www.ecn.nl

Wind Power ForecastingArno J. Brand

2 16 March 2011

Physical forecasting method AVDEAtmospheric model data

Wind (power) forecast

Physical modeling

Wind Power Forecasting

Site data

3 16 March 2011

Physical forecasting method AVDEAtmospheric model data

Wind (power) forecast

Physical modeling

State of the atmosphere in the near future

Wind Power Forecasting

Site data

4 16 March 2011

Physical forecasting method AVDE

Site data

Atmospheric model data

Wind (power) forecast

Physical modeling

State of the atmosphere in the near future

Descriptions of relevant physical processes

Wind Power Forecasting

5 16 March 2011

Physical forecasting method AVDE

Site data

Atmospheric model data

Wind (power) forecast

Physical modeling

State of the atmosphere in the near future

Environment Turbines

Correlations

Descriptions of relevant physical processes

Wind Power Forecasting

6 16 March 2011

Physical forecasting method AVDE

Site data

Atmospheric model data

Wind (power) forecast

Physical modeling

State of the atmosphere in the near future

Wind (power) expected in the near future

Environment Turbines

Correlations

Descriptions of relevant physical processes

Wind Power Forecasting

7 16 March 2011

Physical forecasting method AVDE

Site data

Atmospheric model data

Wind (power) forecast

Physical modeling

Wind Power Forecasting

8 16 March 2011

Physical forecasting method AVDE

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.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Two wind speed components + Temperature + Pressure

Two vertical levels, Horizontal grid covering site

Time step 1 or 3 hour up to +48 hour

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.

.

Wind Power Forecasting

9 16 March 2011

Physical forecasting method AVDE

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Two wind speed components + Temperature + Pressure

Two vertical levels, Horizontal grid covering site

Time step 1 or 3 hour up to +48 hour

.

.

.

Surface roughness:

Fetch <10 km open water: fixed surface roughness length

Otherwise: Charnock relation

Obstacles:

Displacement height

Atmospheric stability via Obukhov length:

Very stable conditions: Holtslag speed and temperature profiles

Otherwise: Businger-Dyer profiles

Wind Power Forecasting

10 16 March 2011

Physical forecasting method AVDE

Geographic coordinates

Turbine hub height

Height above mean sea level

Global roughness lengths

Local roughness lengths

Displacement heights

Slope and offset on wind speed

Turbine power curve

Slope and offset on wind power

Two wind speed components + Temperature + Pressure

Two vertical levels, Horizontal grid covering site

Time step 1 or 3 hour up to +48 hour

.

.

.

Surface roughness:

Fetch <10 km open water: fixed surface roughness length

Otherwise: Charnock relation

Obstacles:

Displacement height

Atmospheric stability via Obukhov length:

Very stable conditions: Holtslag speed and temperature profiles

Otherwise: Businger-Dyer profiles

Wind Power Forecasting

11 16 March 2011

Physical forecasting method AVDE

Geographic coordinates

Turbine hub height

Height above mean sea level

Global roughness lengths

Local roughness lengths

Displacement heights

Slope and offset on wind speed

Turbine power curve

Slope and offset on wind power

Two wind speed components + Temperature + Pressure

Two vertical levels, Horizontal grid covering site

Time step 1 or 3 hour up to +48 hour

Wind speed confidence interval

Wind power confidence interval

Time step 10 or 15 minutes up to +48 hour

Wind Power Forecasting

Surface roughness:

Fetch <10 km open water: fixed surface roughness length

Otherwise: Charnock relation

Obstacles:

Displacement height

Atmospheric stability via Obukhov length:

Very stable conditions: Holtslag speed and temperature profiles

Otherwise: Businger-Dyer profiles

12 16 March 2011

Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE

Wind Power Forecasting

13 16 March 2011

Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE

air density

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

kg/m3

Wind Power Forecasting

14 16 March 2011

Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE

air density

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

kg/m3 wind direction

0306090

120150180210240270300330360

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

deg

north

west

south

east

north

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

Wind Power Forecasting

15 16 March 2011

Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE

air density

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

kg/m3 wind direction

0306090

120150180210240270300330360

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

deg

north

west

south

east

north

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

wind speed

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

m/s

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

Wind Power Forecasting

16 16 March 2011

Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE

air density

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

kg/m3 wind direction

0306090

120150180210240270300330360

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

deg

north

west

south

east

north

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

wind speed

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

m/s

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

wind power variation intensity

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

Wind Power Forecasting

17 16 March 2011

Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE

air density

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

kg/m3 wind direction

0306090

120150180210240270300330360

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

deg

north

west

south

east

north

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

wind speed

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

m/s

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

wind power variation intensity

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

wind power

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

2008/09/24 08:00

2008/09/24 14:00

2008/09/24 20:00

2008/09/25 02:00

2008/09/25 08:00

2008/09/25 14:00

2008/09/25 20:00

2008/09/26 02:00

local time

lowhighexpected

kW

Copyright ©2006 by ECN

Wind Power Forecasting

18 16 March 2011

The experience

Wind Power Forecasting

19 16 March 2011

The experience

Forecasting services

Wind Power Forecasting

20 16 March 2011

The experience

Forecasting services

Evaluation studies

Wind Power Forecasting

21 16 March 2011

The experience

Forecasting services

Evaluation studies

Integration studies

Wind Power Forecasting

22 16 March 2011

Forecasting Service

Wind Power Forecasting

Historic Forecasts

23 16 March 2011

Forecasting Service

Wind Power Forecasting

Historic Forecasts

Four times per day

+48h forecast

Per grid connection

24 16 March 2011

Forecasting Service

Wind Power Forecasting

Historic Forecasts

Four times per day

+48h forecast

Per grid connection

June 2001 - present

4 daily +48h forecasts

Per grid connection

25 16 March 2011

Contact

Arno J. BrandECN Wind EnergyWind turbine rotor and Wind farm Aerodynamics

M: P.O. Box 1, NL 1755 ZG Petten, NetherlandsE: [email protected]: +31 224 56 4775F: +31 224 56 8214I: nl.linkedin.com/in/arnobrand

Wind Power Forecasting