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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.

    Enhancing investment decisions

    Q3FY12 Result Update

    eClerx Services Ltd

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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.

    Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

    The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process

    Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental

    grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The

    valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to

    grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

    CRISILFundamental Grade

    Assessment CRISILValuation Grade

    Assessment

    5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

    4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

    3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

    2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)

    1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (

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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 1

    eClerx Services LtdProfitability boosted by rupee depreciation

    Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)Valuation Grade 3/5 (CMP is aligned)

    Industry IT Services

    Fair Value Rs 760CMP Rs 716

    February 01, 2012

    eClerx Services Ltds (eClerxs) Q3FY12 revenue in dollar terms was in line

    with CRISIL Researchs expectations driven by sustained growth in both topfive and non-top five clients. Revenue in rupee terms, operating profitability

    and PAT were better than expected due to rupee depreciation. We have revised

    FY12 and FY13 revenue and earnings estimates upwards mainly driven by the

    rupee-dollar exchange rate revision of 4.5% for FY12 and 7.9% for FY13. We

    maintain the fundamental grade of4/5.

    Q3FY12 result analysis

    Q3FY12 revenue in US$ terms grew by 4.5% q-o-q (~30% y-o-y) to

    US$ 25.4 mn driven by 4.5% q-o-q growth in revenue from both top five

    and non-top five clients. Revenue in rupee terms grew by 16% q-o-q (up

    51.3% y-o-y) to Rs 1.3 bn due to depreciation of the rupee against the

    US$.

    Employee cost as a percent of sales declined by 444 bps q-o-q (272 bps

    y-o-y) to 39.3% and other expenses as a percent of sales declined by

    191 bps q-o-q (76 bps y-o-y) to 15.4% mainly due to rupee depreciation.

    As a result, EBITDA increased by 35% q-o-q (64% y-o-y) to Rs 597 mn.

    EBITDA margin improved by 635 bps q-o-q (349 bps y-o-y) to 45.2%.

    This quarter, the company added 116 employees compared to 140 in

    Q2FY12 and 196 in Q3FY11 as the attrition declined to 26.3% from 38.7%

    in Q2FY12 and 37% in Q3FY11, and employee utilisation improved 100 bps

    q-o-q (200 bps y-o-y) to 72%.

    Forex loss incurred on derivative contracts due to weaker rupee reduced

    other income by ~55% q-o-q. As a result, PAT increased by ~13% q-o-q

    (~39% y-o-y) to Rs 499 mn despite stronger growth in EBITDA.

    Q3FY12 EPS was Rs 17.2.

    The company was able to sharply reduce debtor days to 52 from 76 days in

    Q2FY12 as the company focussed on collections but is expected to return to

    long-term average of 60-70 days.

    Rupee depreciated by ~14% in Q3FY12.

    Valuation: Current market price is alignedWe continue to use the price to earnings ratio (PER) method to value eClerx.

    Since earnings have been revised only due to revision in the exchange rate, we

    maintain the fair value of Rs 760 per share. At this value, the implied P/E

    multiple is 11.5x FY13 EPS (ex-hedging gains) of Rs 66.4. At the current

    market price of Rs 716, the valuation grade is 3/5.

    KEY FORECAST

    (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

    Operating income 1,973 2,570 3,421 4,774 6,088

    EBITDA 815 1,004 1,345 1,928 2,447

    Adj PAT 618 735 1,327 1,669 1,984

    Adj EPS-Rs 21.4 25.5 46.0 57.8 68.8

    EPS growth (%) 38.6 19.0 80.4 25.8 18.9

    Dividend yield (%) 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.4 5.3

    RoCE (%) 48.6 51.1 57.2 65.6 64.9

    RoE (%) 41.4 40.2 60.5 60.5 55.4

    PE (x) 33.4 28.1 15.6 12.4 10.4

    P/BV (x) 12.5 10.3 8.7 6.6 5.1EV/EBITDA (x) 15.3 12.3 14.0 9.8 7.4

    NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

    CFV MATRIX

    KEY STOCK STATISTICSNIFTY 5236

    NSE ticker ECLERX

    Face value (Rs per share) 10

    Shares outstanding (mn) 29

    Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 20,781/420

    Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 18,870/381

    52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 875/577

    Beta 0.97

    Free float (%) 45.2

    Avg daily volumes (30-days) 21,568

    Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 15.3

    SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

    PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKET

    Returns

    1-m 3-m 6-m 12-mECLERX 4% -4% -11% 9%

    NIFTY 13% 0% -5% -3%

    ANALYTICAL CONTACTChetan Majithia (Head) [email protected]

    Chinmay Sapre [email protected]

    Suresh Guruprasad [email protected]

    Client servicing desk

    +91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

    1 2 3 4 5

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Valuation Grade

    FundamentalGrade

    Poor

    Fundamentals

    Excellent

    Fundamentals

    S

    trong

    Do

    wnside

    S

    trong

    U

    pside

    59.3% 55.1% 54.8% 54.8%

    20.0% 24.5% 24.5% 23.5%

    8.2% 9.1% 9.5% 10.5%

    12.5% 11.3% 11.2% 11.2%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11

    Promoter FII DII Others

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    eClerx Services Ltd

    Q3FY12 Result Summary(Rs mn) Q3FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) 9MFY12 9MFY12 y-o-y (%)

    Net sales 1,320 1,137 872 16.0 51.3 3,453 2,466 40.1Employee cost 519 498 367 4.3 41.6 1,463 1,096 33.6

    Employee cost (% of net sales) 39.3% 43.8% 42.0% -444bps -272bps 91.5% 133.6% -4205bps

    Administration and other expenses 204 197 141 3.3 44.2 560 425 31.6EBITDA 597 442 364 35.0 64.0 1,430 945 51.4EBITDA margin 45.2% 38.9% 41.8% 635bps 349bps 41.4% 38.3% 310bpsDepreciation 34 31 25 12.3 35.2 89 64 38.7

    EBIT 563 412 339 36.7 66.1 1,342 881 52.3Interest and finance charges - - - - - - - -

    Operating PBT 563 412 339 36.7 66.1 1,342 881 52.3Other Income 31 37 19 (14.3) 67.9 101 48 108.8

    Forex gain/(loss) 31 102 43 (69.5) (26.7) 174 118 47.5

    PBT 625 551 400 13.5 56.3 1,616 1,047 54.3Tax 126 108 40 16.1 212.8 322 118 173.8

    PAT 499 442 360 12.9 38.8 1,294 929 39.2Adj PAT 499 442 360 12.9 38.8 1,294 929 39.2

    Adj PAT margin 37.8% 38.9% 41.3% -105bps -342bps 37.5% 37.7% -23bpsNo of equity shares (mn) 29.0 29.0 28.8 - 0.7 29.0 28.8 -Adj EPS (Rs) 17.2 15.2 12.5 12.9 37.8 44.7 32.2 38.6

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research

    Contribution from US increased due to strong US$ High dependence on top five clients continues

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

    Revenues from top five and non-top five clients grew at 4.5% in US$ terms

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

    63% 63% 60% 58% 61% 61%65% 70%

    31% 30% 33% 34% 32% 31%26%

    24%

    6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 9% 6%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Mar-10

    Jun-10

    Sep-10

    Dec-10

    Mar-11

    Jun-11

    Sep-11

    Dec-11

    North America Europe Rest of the world

    84%

    88%87%

    86% 86%

    88%

    86% 86%

    76%

    78%

    80%

    82%

    84%

    86%

    88%

    90%

    Mar-10

    Jun-10

    Sep-10

    Dec-10

    Mar-11

    Jun-11

    Sep-11

    Dec-11

    13.3 14.8 15.7 16.9 18.2 19.7 20.9 21.8

    7.3%

    11.4%

    5.9%

    7.6%8.2%

    7.8%

    6.3%

    4.5%

    0%

    2%

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    12%

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    Jun-11

    Sep-11

    Dec-11

    (US$ mn)

    Revenues from top 5 clients growth (RHS)

    2.5 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.7 3.4 3.6

    -0.2%

    -20%

    16% 17%

    8%

    -10%

    27%

    5%

    -30%

    -20%

    -10%

    0%

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    0.0

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    (US$ mn)

    Revenues from non-top five clients growth (RHS)

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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 3

    eClerx Services Ltd

    Debtor days declined sharply Employee addition remained low

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

    EBITDA margin improved due to weak rupee PAT margin declined due to low forex gains

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

    Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

    -indexed to 100

    Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

    57 59 65 62 59 67 76 52

    50

    52

    54

    56

    58

    60

    62

    64

    66

    68

    70

    Mar-10

    Jun-10

    Sep-10

    Dec-10

    Mar-11

    Jun-11

    Sep-11

    Dec-11

    (Days)

    224 286 261 207 196 131 357 140 116

    2,5772,863 3,124

    3,331 3,527 3,658

    4,0154,155 4,271

    -100

    400

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    1,400

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    2,400

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    3,400

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    4,400

    Dec-09

    Mar-10

    Jun-10

    Sep-10

    Dec-10

    Mar-11

    Jun-11

    Sep-11

    Dec-11

    Net additions Ending employees

    713 771 823 872 955 996 1,137 1,320

    36.6% 36.7% 36.2%

    41.8% 42.0%

    39.2% 38.9%

    45.2%

    30%

    33%

    36%

    39%

    42%

    45%

    48%

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    (Rs mn)

    Revenue EBITDA margin (RHS)

    243 293 276 360 398 352 442 499

    34.0%

    38.0%

    33.6%

    41.3% 41.7%

    35.3%38.9% 37.8%

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    PAT PAT margin (RHS)

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    eClerx NIFTY

    -

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    ('000)(Rs)

    Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value eClerx

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    eClerx Services Ltd

    EARNINGS ESTIMATES REVISED UPWARDS

    FY12E FY13E

    Particulars Unit Old New % change Old New % change

    Revenue (US$ mn) 100.4 99.5 -0.9% 127 127 0.0%

    Exchange rate Rs 45.9 48.0 4.5% 44.5 48.0 7.9%

    Revenue (Rs mn) 4,613 4,774 3.5% 5,644 6,088 7.9%

    Employee cost (Rs mn) 1,987 1987 0.0% 2,582 2582 0.0%

    SG&A (Rs mn) 830 859 3.5% 1,010 1059 4.9%

    EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,796 1,928 7.4% 2,052 2,447 19.2%

    EBITDA margin (%) 39% 40% 145bps 36% 40% 384bps

    Depreciation (Rs mn) 125 119 -4.6% 123 123 0.0%

    Other income (Rs mn) 240 251 4.6% 160 188 17.7%

    PAT (Rs mn) 1,483 1,669 12.5% 1,803 1,984 10.1%

    PAT margin (%) 32.1% 35.0% 280bps 31.9% 32.6% 65bps

    No of shares no 28.8 29.0 1% 28.8 29.0 1%

    EPS (ex-hedging gains) (Rs) 51.4 54.1 5.2% 58.5 66.4 13.5%

    EPS (Rs) 51.4 57.5 11.8% 62.5 68.4 9.4%

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Reasons for changes in estimatesLine item FY12 FY13

    Revenues Marginal downward revision in US$ revenue due to

    uncertain macro environment

    Rupee depreciation

    Rupee depreciation

    EBITDA margins Higher revenue and US$ denominated costs due to

    rupee depreciation

    Higher revenue and US$ denominated costs due

    to rupee depreciation

    PAT margins Higher EBITDA due to rupee depreciation

    Higher other income due to higher yields

    Lower-than-expected depreciation

    Higher EBITDA due to rupee depreciation

    Higher other income due to existing hedge

    positions

    As on December 31, 2011, the company had outstanding hedges of

    US$ 19.5 mn at an average US$/rupee rate of Rs 48.3 for Q4FY12. Based on

    this position, we expect the company to incur forex losses in the next quarter.

    Hence, we have assumed lower profitability in Q4FY12. Our full-year PAT

    estimate is Rs 1.7 mn while the company has already done PAT of Rs 1.3 bn in

    9MFY12.

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    eClerx Services Ltd

    VALUATION

    We continue to use the price-to-earnings method to value eClerx. Since

    earnings have been revised only due to revision in the rupee-dollar exchange

    rate, we maintain the fair value of Rs 760 per share. At this value, the implied

    P/E multiple is 11.5x FY13E EPS (ex-hedging gains) of Rs 66.4. At the current

    market price of Rs 716, the valuation grade is 3/5.

    One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

    Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

    P/E premium/discount to NIFTY P/E movement

    Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

    CRISIL IER reports released on eClerx Services Ltd

    Date Nature of reportFundamental

    grade Fair valueValuation

    gradeCMP

    (on the date of report)

    28-Mar-11 Initiating coverage* 4/5 Rs 692 3/5 Rs 641

    19-May-11 Q4FY11 result update 4/5 Rs 692 3/5 Rs 738

    29-Jul-11 Q1FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 714 2/5 Rs 820

    24-Oct-11 Q2FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 760 3/5 Rs 733

    01-Feb-12 Q3FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 760 3/5 Rs 716

    * For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.inCRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI ) and Thomson Reuters.

    0

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    (Rs)

    eClerx Services 4x 7x 10x 13x 16x

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    (Rs mn)

    EV 2x 4x 6x 8x

    -100%

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    -40%

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    Premium/Discount to NIFTY Median of premium discount to NIFTY

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    (Times)

    1yr Fwd PE (x) Average PE

    +1 std dev

    -1 std dev

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    eClerx Services Ltd

    FINANCIALS

    Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

    Income statement Balance Sheet

    (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

    Operating income 1,973 2,570 3,421 4,774 6,088 Liabilities

    EBITDA 815 1,004 1,345 1,928 2,447 Equity share capital 189 190 289 290 290

    EBITDA margin 41.3% 39.1% 39.3% 40.4% 40.2% Reserves 1,467 1,809 2,095 2,844 3,737Depreciation 79 70 91 119 123 Minorities - - - - -

    EBIT 735 934 1,254 1,809 2,324 Net worth 1,657 1,999 2,384 3,135 4,028

    Interest 91 160 (165) - - Convertible debt - - - - -

    Operating PBT 644 774 1,419 1,809 2,324 Other debt - - - - -Other income 50 54 75 251 188 Total debt - - - - -Exceptional inc/(exp) - - (102) - - Deferred tax liability (net) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7)

    PBT 694 828 1,392 2,060 2,512 Total liabilities 1,649 1,992 2,377 3,127 4,020

    Tax provision 77 93 168 391 528 AssetsMinority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 187 183 275 370 253

    PAT (Reported) 618 735 1,224 1,669 1,984 Capital WIP 1 22 65 65 65

    Less: Exceptionals - - (102) - - Total fixed assets 188 205 341 436 318

    Adjusted PAT 618 735 1,327 1,669 1,984 Investments - - - - -Current assets

    Ratios Inventory - - - - -

    FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 451 392 659 850 1,084Growth Loans and advances 289 492 690 764 913

    Operating income (%) 62.2 30.3 33.1 39.5 27.5 Cash & bank balance 213 472 1,515 1,627 2,514

    EBITDA (%) 65.6 23.2 34.0 43.3 26.9 Marketable securities 851 775 279 279 279

    Adj PAT (%) 38.6 19.0 80.4 25.8 18.9 Total current assets 1,804 2,132 3,143 3,520 4,790Adj EPS (%) 38.6 19.0 80.4 25.8 18.9 Total current liabilities 465 463 1,136 857 1,117

    Net current assets 1,339 1,669 2,007 2,662 3,673

    Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 123 117 29 29 29

    EBITDA margin (%) 41.3 39.1 39.3 40.4 40.2 Total assets 1,649 1,992 2,377 3,127 4,020

    Adj PAT Margin (%) 31.3 28.6 38.8 35.0 32.6

    RoE (%) 41.4 40.2 60.5 60.5 55.4 Cash flow

    RoCE (%) 48.6 51.1 57.2 65.6 64.9 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

    RoIC (%) 58.7 63.9 103.3 161.6 143.8 Pre-tax profit 694 828 1,494 2,060 2,512

    Total tax paid (81) (93) (167) (392) (528)

    Valuations Depreciation 79 70 91 119 123

    Price-earnings (x) 33.4 28.1 15.6 12.4 10.4 Working capital changes (50) (147) 209 (544) (124)

    Price-book (x) 12.5 10.3 8.7 6.6 5.1 Net cash from operations 643 659 1,627 1,244 1,983EV/EBITDA (x) 15.3 12.3 14.0 9.8 7.4 Cash from investments

    EV/Sales (x) 6.3 4.8 5.5 4.0 3.0 Capital expenditure (127) (82) (139) (214) (5)

    Dividend payout ratio (%) 44.8 53.0 61.6 55.0 55.0 Investments and others (197) 76 496 - -

    Dividend yield (%) 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.4 5.3 Net cash from investments (324) (6) 357 (214) (5)

    Cash from financing

    B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 1 5 25 - -

    Inventory days - - - - - Debt raised/(repaid) (40) - - - -

    Creditors days 73 51 61 60 62 Dividend (incl. tax) (277) (390) (755) (918) (1,091)

    Debtor days 83 56 70 65 65 Others (incl extraordinaries) (13) (9) (212) - -

    Working capital days 46 50 34 37 49 Net cash from financing (329) (393) (942) (918) (1,091)

    Gross asset turnover (x) 7.2 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.7 Change in cash position (11) 259 1,043 112 887

    Net asset turnover (x) 13.4 13.9 14.9 14.8 19.5 Closing cash 213 472 1,515 1,627 2,514

    Sales/operating assets (x) 10.8 13.1 12.5 12.3 16.2

    Current ratio (x) 3.9 4.6 2.8 4.1 4.3 Quarterly financials

    Debt-equity (x) - - - - - (Rs mn) Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12Net debt/equity (x) (0.6) (0.6) (0.8) (0.6) (0.7) Net Sales 872 955 996 1,137 1,320Interest coverage 8.1 5.8 NM NM NM Change (q-o-q) 6% 10% 4% 14% 16%

    EBITDA 364 401 391 442 597

    Per share Change (q-o-q) 22% 10% -3% 13% 35%

    FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 41.8% 42.0% 39.2% 38.9% 45.2%Adj EPS (Rs) 21.4 25.5 46.0 57.8 68.8 PAT 360 398 352 442 499

    CEPS 24.2 27.9 49.1 62.0 73.0 Adj PAT 360 398 352 442 499

    Book value 57.4 69.3 82.6 108.6 139.6 Change (q-o-q) 30% 11% -12% 26% 13%

    Dividend (Rs) 9.6 13.5 26.2 31.8 37.8 Adj PAT margin 41.3% 41.7% 35.3% 38.9% 37.8%

    Actual o/s shares (mn) 18.9 19.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 Adj EPS 12.5 13.8 12.2 15.2 17.2

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