ec.europa.eu 16... · Web viewThe new National Emission Ceilings Directive (Directive 2016/2284 on the reduction of national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants) was adopted

TSAP 16 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS

IMPLEMENTING ARTICLE 14(3) OF NEC DIRECTIVE 2016/2284 REQUESTING THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION TO PUBLISH THE TSAP 16 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR DETERMINING THE NATIONAL EMISSION

REDUCTION POTENTIALS

Produced by: EC, DG Environment, unit C.3 - AirDate: 8 February 2017

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Contents

Glossary.................................................................................................................................................31. Introduction.......................................................................................................................................42. Methodology, key assumptions and principles..................................................................................6

2.1 Conceptual approach...................................................................................................................62.2 Modelling tools............................................................................................................................72.3 Assumptions for the TSAP 16 scenarios.......................................................................................9

2.3.1 The PRIMES 2013 Reference projection of energy use and agricultural activities................92.3.2 The 'current legislation' (CLE) case.....................................................................................152.3.3 The 'Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions' (MTFR) case............................................172.3.4 The re-optimized 'Policy' scenario......................................................................................18

3. Main assumptions per MS...............................................................................................................193.1 Austria.......................................................................................................................................203.2 Belgium......................................................................................................................................213.3 Bulgaria......................................................................................................................................223.4 Croatia.......................................................................................................................................233.5 Cyprus........................................................................................................................................243.6 Czech Republic...........................................................................................................................253.7 Denmark....................................................................................................................................263.8 Estonia.......................................................................................................................................273.9 France........................................................................................................................................283.10 Finland.....................................................................................................................................293.11 Germany..................................................................................................................................303.12 Greece.....................................................................................................................................313.13 Hungary...................................................................................................................................323.14 Ireland......................................................................................................................................333.15 Italy..........................................................................................................................................343.16 Latvia.......................................................................................................................................353.17 Lithuania..................................................................................................................................363.18 Luxembourg.............................................................................................................................373.19 Malta.......................................................................................................................................383.20 Netherlands.............................................................................................................................393.21 Poland......................................................................................................................................403.22 Portugal...................................................................................................................................413.23 Romania...................................................................................................................................423.24 Slovakia....................................................................................................................................433.25 Slovenia...................................................................................................................................443.26 Spain........................................................................................................................................453.27 Sweden....................................................................................................................................463.28 United Kingdom.......................................................................................................................47

4. GAINS details per MS.......................................................................................................................485. Complementary information...........................................................................................................496. GAINS acronyms..............................................................................................................................51REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................59

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Glossary

BAT Best Available TechnologyCAPRI Agricultural model, developed by the University of BonnCH4 MethaneCLE Current legislationCO2 Carbon dioxideEC4MACS European Consortium for Modelling Air Pollution and Climate StrategiesEU European UnionGAINS Greenhouse gas - Air pollution Interactions and Synergies modelGDP Gross domestic productGHG Greenhouse gasesIED Industrial Emissions DirectiveIIASA International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisIPPC Integrated Pollution Prevention and Controlkt kilotons = 1000 tonskW kilowatts - 1000 Watts, measure for power and power capacityLCP Large Combustion Plants (directive) LDV Light Duty Vehicles (passenger cars and small trucks) MARPOL International Convention on the Prevention of Pollution from Ships MCP Medium Combustion Plants (between 1 and 50 MW thermal input) MTFR Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction: the lowest level of pollution achievable by

deploying all commercially available technical solutions irrespective of cost MW MegaWatt (1 million Watts, measure for power and power capacity)NEC National Emission CeilingsNH3 AmmoniaNMVOC Non-methane volatile organic compoundsNOx Nitrogen oxidesO3 OzonePJ Petajoule = 1015 joulePM10 Fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 µmPM2.5 Fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 µmPRIMES Energy Systems Model of the National Technical University of AthensSO2 Sulphur dioxideTSAP Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionVOC Volatile organic compounds

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1. Introduction

The new National Emission Ceilings Directive (Directive 2016/2284 on the reduction of national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants) was adopted on 14 December 2016. Negotiations with the Council and the European Parliament have been informed by quantitative modelling of baseline emissions and associated impacts, of the scope for further emission reduction options, and of cost-effective emission reduction strategies with the GAINS Integrated Assessment Modelling suite by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), although the finally agreed numbers emerged from political negotiations. To document the key assumptions applied for the modelling analysis, Article 14(3a) of this Directive requests the Commission to publish on its website:

“the underlying assumptions considered for each Member State for the definition of their national emission reduction potential used to prepare TSAP16”.

Recital (14) of the new NEC Directive adds following explanation to article 14(3a):

“The national emission reduction commitments set out in this Directive for 2030 onwards are based on the estimated reduction potential of each Member State contained in the TSAP Report no 16 of January 2015 (‘TSAP 16’), on technical examination of the differences between national estimates and those in TSAP 16, and on the political objective to maintain the overall health impact reduction by 2030 (compared with 2005) as close as possible to that of the Commission proposal for this Directive. To enhance transparency, the Commission should publish the underlying assumptions used in TSAP 16”.

In response to Article 14(3a) of the NEC Directive, this report documents the key assumptions that have been used for the scenario analysis presented in the TSAP16 report.

Section 2 summarizes the methodological approach of the scenarios presented in the TSAP 16 report and describes the key assumptions and principles of the scenarios at the aggregated level for the EU-28. Information for the individual Member States is provided in sections 3 and 4. While section 3 provides summary tables of the key assumptions per MS, section 4 provides a link to an excel database containing all relevant GAINS details per MS. Section 5 further contains links to some key references that can provide complementary information on the TSAP16 scenarios and the GAINS Integrated Assessment Modelling suite employed for the development of these scenarios. Finally, section 6 provides a glossary including a list of most common GAINS abbreviations used in the excel database.

Documenting every minor assumption and data element used for the GAINS TSAP16 modelling would be neither desirable nor helpful in making the recorded information accessible and user friendly. The report aims to present meaningful subsets of key assumptions and data used as input for GAINS for storage on the Commission's website. Sections 2, 3 and 4 make the key information and data available at different levels of detail and in different formats, allowing the user to access the stored data for different purposes.

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Under the Scenario group ‘TSAP report #16’ (see TSAP reports #16A and 16B, IIASA, January 2015), the following five scenarios were developed with the GAINS model:

WPE2014 CLE:‐ The updated ‘current legislation’ projection for 2030 of the PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE activity projection;

WPE2014 MTFR:‐ The updated ‘maximum technically feasible emission reduction’ projection for 2030 of the PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE activity projection;

WPE2014 OPT:‐ The re optimized 67% gap closure scenario of the PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE‐ activity projection for 2030;

NAT2014 CLE:‐ The updated ‘current legislation’ scenario for 2030 for the national activity projections;

NAT2014 MTFR:‐ The updated ‘maximum technically feasible emission reduction’ scenario for 2030 for the national activity projections.

In line with the intent of article 14(3) and the necessity of a meaningful selection of key data as expressed above, it was

(1) decided to limit the publication of the underlying assumptions used to prepare TSAP16 to scenarios WPE2014-CLE, WPE2014-MTFR and WPE2014-OPT and not to keep a permanent record of the underlying assumptions used for the two national scenarios, given that

the national scenarios were developed as sensitivity cases to test the feasibility using national perspectives on economic development and energy policies and as such were not directly used to impact or change the emission reduction commitments resulting from the Europe-wide coherent scenarios (WPE2014);

the national scenarios were only developed for a subset of MS and in most cases not covering all emission generating activities.

(2) further decided to limit the documentation of the underlying assumptions used to prepare TSAP16 to the base year 2005 and the target year 2030. The reduction commitments for 2020 were copied from the reduction commitments adopted for the revised Gothenburg protocol, are basically achievable on the basis of CLE and were as such not the subject of any substantial discussion during the NEC negotiations. It was therefore judged that it was justified to further limit the publication of key data to the years 2005 and 2030.

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2. Methodology, key assumptions and principles

2.1 Conceptual approach

The cost-effectiveness analysis presented in the TSAP 16 report examines additional emission control measures that would reduce health and environmental impacts of air pollution at least cost.

The GAINS suite of models has been employed to assess future emission scenarios under alternative hypotheses on economic development and further energy, transport, agricultural, climate and air quality policies.

As a starting point, baseline emissions have been determined under standard economic and policy assumptions, assuming effective implementation of currently agreed emission control legislation according to the foreseen time schedules.

Subsequently, the GAINS model has been used to estimate scope, costs and benefits of further control measures (the ‘Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions’, MTFR) case. Given the available space of further policy interventions, the optimization tool of the GAINS model has been employed to identify packages of emission control measures that achieve a given level of health improvements at least cost. Ex-post analyses of the resulting emission levels delivered information on corresponding national emission ceilings for the five pollutants.

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2.2 Modelling tools

The GAINS toolbox (Figure 1Figure), developed within the EC4MACS (www.ec4macs.eu) project, brings together an ensemble of interlinked models with the objective to simulate future emission scenarios and cost-effective emission reduction strategies. This is done following an upstream causal chain that includes standard Commission projections on economic development, energy, transport, agriculture and climate change mitigation policies to estimate emission levels for pollutants, which are subsequently used to determine concentration/ deposition patterns across Europe and finally impacts on human health, ecosystems, agricultural crops and the built environment.

Figure 1: The GAINS suite of models that describes the full range of driving forces and impacts at the local, European and global scale.

The core element of the toolbox, i.e., the Greenhouse gas – Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (IIASA) is an integrated assessment tool that brings together information on the sources and impacts of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions and their interactions. For this purpose, GAINS combines data on economic development, the structure, control potential and costs of emission sources, the formation and dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere with assessment of environmental impacts of pollution.

GAINS can follow pollutants from their sources to their impacts, and thereby simulates the impacts of specific policy interventions on multiple outcomes. In its optimization mode, GAINS identifies the least-cost balance of emission control measures across pollutants, economic sectors and countries that meet user-specified air quality and climate targets (Figure 2).

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http://www.ec4macs.eu/

Energy/agricultural projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Costs

Environmental targets

OPTIMIZATION

Air pollution impacts,Basket of GHG emissions

Energy/agricultural projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Costs

Environmental targetsEnvironmental targets

OPTIMIZATIONOPTIMIZATION

Air pollution impacts,Basket of GHG emissions

Figure 2: The flow of information in the cost-effectiveness analysis (‘optimization mode’) of the GAINS model

GAINS addresses air pollution impacts on human health from fine particulate matter and ground-level ozone, vegetation damage caused by ground-level ozone, the acidification of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and excess nitrogen deposition) of soils, in addition to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. It captures the interactions between these multiple effects and the associated pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM, NMVOC, NH3, CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases), as well as the simultaneous co-control of multiple pollutants of specific emission reduction options (Figure 3).

PM (BC, OC)

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO CO2 CH4 N2OHFCsPFCsSF6

Health impacts:PM (Loss in life expectancy)

O3 (Premature mortality)

Vegetation damage:O3 (AOT40/fluxes)

Acidification(Excess of critical loads)

Eutrophication(Excess of critical loads)

Climate impacts:Long-term (GWP100) () () () () () ()

Near-term forcing () () ()

Carbon depositionto the Arctic and glaciers

Figure 3: The multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework of the GAINS model

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2.3 Assumptions for the TSAP 16 scenarios

To facilitate the analysis of emission reductions that achieve air quality improvements at least cost, the TSAP 16 report presents three alternative scenarios of future air pollutant emissions in the EU-28. These scenarios illustrate costs and benefits of three alternative sets of air quality-related policy interventions. All three scenarios employ the projections of energy use, transport, industrial production and agricultural activities of the PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE scenario (EC 2014).

The following tables present summary information aggregated for all 28 EU Member States. Country-specific information is provided sections 3 and 4 and can be extracted from the GAINS online version under http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains/EUN/index.login?logout=1.

2.3.1 The PRIMES 2013 Reference projection of energy use and agricultural activities

The development of the PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE projection of energy use and agricultural activities has been coordinated by Commission services ENER, CLIMA and MOVE for the Commission Communication on ‘A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030’.

Macro-economic and demographic development

The macroeconomic assumptions of the PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE scenario are based on DG ECFIN/ Economic Policy Committee short and medium term growth projections and on the DG ECFIN/ EPC Ageing Report 2012 for long term GDP growth and population trends

Population is assumed to follow the EUROSTAT population projection for the period 2010 to 2050, with slightly rising fertility rates, further life expectancy gains, and continued, but decelerating inward net migration to the EU. As a result, the EU population is projected to increase up to 2030 by six percent compared to 2005 (Table 1).

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http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains/EUN/index.login?logout=1

Table 1: Population development assumed in the PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE scenario (million people)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Austria 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8

Belgium 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.2Bulgaria 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.6Croatia 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7Cyprus 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0

Czech Rep. 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.8Denmark 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9

Estonia 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3Finland 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7France 61.0 62.8 64.4 65.8 67.1 68.2

Germany 82.5 81.8 81.0 80.1 79.1 77.9Greece 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.6

Hungary 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7Ireland 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3

Italy 58.5 60.3 61.8 62.9 63.7 64.5Latvia 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0

Lithuania 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0Luxembourg 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6

Malta 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Netherlands 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6

Poland 38.2 38.2 38.4 38.4 38.1 37.6Portugal 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8Romania 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.0 20.7 20.3Slovakia 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6Slovenia 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2

Spain 43.0 46.0 46.9 48.0 49.0 50.0Sweden 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.6

UK 60.0 62.0 64.1 66.3 68.4 70.2EU-28 493.8 503.6 510.8 517.0 521.7 524.9

The Reference 2013 scenario mirrors the DG ECFIN projections of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the short and medium term (following the agreement reached in the Economic Policy Committee (EPC)) and the EPC/DG ECFIN Ageing Report 2012 (from first quarter 2012) for the long-run. The GEM-E3 model has been used to project the structure of the economy and gross value added generated by different sectors, consistently with the given GDP projection.

The GDP projection assumes a recovery from past economic crisis, followed by steady GDP growth rates in the medium term (avg. 1.6%/year over the period 2015-2030, down from the 2.2%/year during 1996-2007).

The Reference 2013 scenario projection sees a continuation of trends towards higher share of services in GDP. Industrial activities will recover, with a shift in production towards higher value added products, rather than higher amounts of products. For energy-intensive industries recovery and then slow growth pace is projected. Non energy-intensive industries see a more significant growth. The remaining sectors - construction, agriculture and energy sector – experience a rather slow growth of activity.

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Table 2: GDP by Member State (billion Euro, Market Exchange Rates)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Austria 245.0 262.8 287.0 310.1 331.8 353.9Belgium 302.6 321.0 345.8 370.3 397.4 429.5Bulgaria 23.3 26.6 30.1 33.2 35.3 38.0Croatia 36.4 38.1 42.3 47.0 51.6 56.1Cyprus 13.6 15.3 16.1 17.4 19.1 21.2Czech Rep. 104.2 119.0 131.4 146.8 159.8 174.3Denmark 207.4 206.1 221.2 236.6 255.8 275.5Estonia 11.1 11.1 13.5 15.1 16.7 18.7Finland 157.4 165.0 181.5 194.6 209.0 223.6France 1710.6 1768.3 1904.2 2064.9 2272.1 2469.2Germany 2215.1 2358.9 2546.3 2668.4 2776.3 2855.0Greece 195.6 198.2 186.0 198.0 209.8 223.7Hungary 89.4 88.5 92.7 97.2 105.6 116.1Ireland 162.1 161.3 176.5 198.2 233.0 271.2Italy 1436.6 1419.7 1467.4 1546.0 1667.8 1795.4Latvia 12.9 12.4 14.5 16.3 18.3 20.5Lithuania 20.9 22.0 25.8 28.0 30.4 33.3Luxembourg 30.6 33.5 36.7 40.4 44.4 48.5Malta 4.7 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.7 7.4Netherlands 513.5 550.9 596.2 644.3 681.2 718.4Poland 244.4 307.8 362.0 411.7 451.6 489.7Portugal 155.0 158.4 157.4 167.0 182.4 201.3Romania 80.0 90.6 103.4 114.8 122.3 130.4Slovakia 38.5 48.3 54.6 61.6 70.1 77.7Slovenia 28.6 31.3 33.8 36.9 39.9 43.1Spain 912.0 953.2 1014.4 1112.8 1265.5 1435.5Sweden 299.0 322.8 359.4 391.5 428.0 466.9UK 1825.3 1870.9 2012.2 2219.1 2444.6 2681.3EU-28 11075.5 11567.2 12418.2 13394.4 14526.7 15675.5

Energy technology progress and policy assumptions

The PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE scenario deals explicitly with the penetration of new technologies notably in power generation and transport and specifically with progress in renewable technologies including further technology learning. The penetration of new technologies leads to changes in the energy mix, alongside other drivers such as relative prices and costs, policies to promote energy efficiency, renewables and new technologies and broader market trends regarding economic efficiency and better use of resources. These interdependent developments also bring about energy efficiency improvements on both the demand and supply side. They also result in energy technology changes, which in the modelling are represented by an uptake of specific energy technologies from a broad portfolio of different technologies that change over time. The projected evolution of the technical and economic characteristics of included energy technologies presupposes that substantial industrial research and demonstration takes place enabling deployment at a wide scale. Compared to the 2009 Reference exercise the development prospects of certain technologies have changed considerably and these have been taken into account in the PRIMES model. The modelling also assumes that learning curves apply for specific technologies, thus reflecting decreasing costs and increasing performances as a function of cumulative production.

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The PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE scenario includes policies and measures adopted in the Member States by April 2012 and policies, measures and legislative provisions (including on binding targets) adopted by or agreed in the first half of 2012 at EU level. Policies, measures and legislative provisions at EU level are included on (1) energy efficiency (e.g. 2012 Energy Efficiency Directive, Eco-design Directive, Energy Labelling Directive, EPB Directive), (2) power generation and energy markets (e.g. 2009 RES Directive), (3) (cross-sectoral) climate policies (e.g. ETS Directive, Effort Sharing Decision), (4) transport related policies (e.g. Regulation Euro 5 and 6 for LDV, Regulation Euro VI for HDV), (5) infrastructure, innovation and RTD and funding (e.g. 7th FW programme, Horizon 2020), (6) environment and other related policies (e.g. Nitrate Directive, Industrial Emissions Directive).

Energy use

For the energy and CO2 reference scenario, the PRIMES energy system model operated by the National Technical University of Athens has been used.

The scenario assumes that world market prices for oil and coal will increase steadily up to 2030, while prices for natural gas would decouple from the oil price and grow to a lesser extent, following large upward revisions for reserves of conventional and unconventional (tight sands, shale gas and coal bed methane) gas and oil. The fuel price projections have been developed independently with the PROMETHEUS model (stochastic world energy model) and was finalised in January 2012, although an effort was made to harmonise some of the assumptions with work of the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (IE WEO) for 2011 (which was published while work on the PROMETHEUS projections for the Reference scenario was already in progress).

The PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE scenario includes energy, climate and agricultural policies that were adopted in the Member States as of 2012. This concerns notably the Energy Efficiency Directive, on which political agreement was reached by that time. Details on policies and measures reflected in the PRIMES 2013 REFRENCE 2013 are provided in (Capros 2013).

Following the assumptions on economic development, enhanced energy efficiency and renewable energy policies and climate strategies lead to about 10% lower fuel consumption in 2030 compared to 2005. The adopted policies for renewable energy sources are expected to double biomass use in 2030 compared to 2005, and to triple energy from other renewable sources (e.g., wind, solar). In contrast, coal consumption is expected to decline by 50% by 2030, oil and nuclear is calculated to be 20% lower than in 2005, and natural gas consumption by 12%.

On a sectoral basis, the rapid penetration of energy efficiency measures maintains constant or slightly decreasing energy consumption in the secondary and tertiary sectors despite the assumed sharp increases in production levels and economic wealth, while fuel input to power generation will drop by about one third (Table 4).

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Table 3: Baseline energy consumption by fuel in the EU-28 [PJ/yr]

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Coal 12421 10939 10411 9108 8272 6574Liquid fuels 29352 26736 25789 24622 23772 23149Gaseous fuels 19426 19356 18890 17723 17692 17220Biomass 3667 5530 6386 7321 7421 7544Renewables (excl. biomass) 1636 2289 3197 4444 5254 5965Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 1 5Non-renewable waste 3 7 9 10 10 11Nuclear 10782 9904 9593 8139 7583 8437Electricity (export/import) 6 -33 -93 -155 -151 -162Heat 6 6 2 1 1 2Sum 77300 74734 74185 71214 69854 68745

Table 4: Energy consumption of the PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE scenario by sector in the EU-28 [PJ/yr]

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Power & heating plants 16087 15176 13677 11759 10861 10301Fuel conversion 5662 5905 5843 5966 5813 5704Residential combustion 20049 20443 20245 19342 19334 19009Industrial combustion 13881 12341 12973 13130 13121 13167Road vehicles 12592 12484 12631 11939 11561 11550Non-road machinery 3976 3766 3949 4067 4176 4018Non-energy use of fuels 5053 4620 4867 5011 4987 4997Sum 77300 74734 74185 71214 69854 68745

Road transport

Table 5: Vehicle stock in the EU-28 [million vehicles]

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Motorcycles 38.7 45.0 33.6 34.7 37.1 41.8Light duty vehicles-diesel 90.6 123.9 127.0 150.2 172.2 187.5Light duty vehicles-gasoline 164.4 141.5 134.8 113.0 101.6 98.6Heavy duty vehicles-diesel 6.0 5.7 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.4Electric vehicles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 3.3Other road transport 5.4 7.5 12.5 16.1 17.8 18.9Sum 305.0 323.6 314.7 321.9 337.6 357.6

Table 6: Vehicle mileage in the EU-28 [billion vehicle-kilometers]

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Motorcycles 131.4 148.8 104.0 112.3 121.3 131.8Light duty vehicles-diesel 1637.8 2241.6 2218.7 2666.2 3131.7 3447.3Light duty vehicles-gasoline 1753.3 1494.2 1308.0 1158.1 1122.0 1139.0Heavy duty vehicles-diesel 325.7 301.9 376.6 407.6 438.4 470.0Electric vehicles 0.4 0.2 7.9 20.2 41.0Other road transport 33.6 30.5 40.4 41.9 43.8 46.5Sum 3882.1 4216.9 4047.9 4394.0 4877.5 5275.5

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Table 7: Fuel consumption by vehicle category [PJ/year]

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Motorcycles 149 149 136 141 146 141Light duty vehicles-diesel 4075 5244 5245 5148 5117 5077Light duty vehicles-gasoline 4663 3748 3333 2578 2122 1937Heavy duty vehicles-diesel 3064 2682 3137 3203 3247 3403Electric vehicles 1 1 0 15 32 59Other road transport 640 661 778 854 898 934Sum 12592 12484 12631 11939 11561 11550

Non-road mobile machinery

Table 8: Fuel consumption by non-road mobile machinery (PJ/year)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Shipping Diesel 539 539 574 624 637 582Railways Diesel 129 118 114 109 100 95Other machinery Diesel 26 18 15 15 15 16Other machinery Gasoline 2647 2591 2793 2916 3020 2791Construction machinery Diesel 389 327 304 296 288 310Agriculture Diesel 577 497 476 460 457 483

Sum 4307 4090 4276 4419 4518 4277

Agriculture

Projections of agricultural activities have been developed with the CAPRI model in the context of the development of the PRIMES 2013 Reference projection. The scenario considers agricultural policies as of 2012.

Table 9: Livestock numbers [million heads]

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Dairy cows - liquid systems 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.6Dairy cows - solid systems 11.3 9.6 9.5 9.0 8.3 7.8Other cattle - liquid systems 23.6 23.8 22.4 21.9 21.7 21.5Other cattle - solid systems 42.5 41.3 40.0 39.2 39.2 39.1Pigs - liquid systems 128.2 124.3 127.8 133.8 135.6 137.0Pigs - solid systems 28.2 24.1 26.2 20.1 19.5 18.8Laying hens 517.9 519.4 482.0 476.8 479.7 476.2Other poultry 1041.1 1105.1 1124.6 1180.5 1224.9 1269.0Sheep and goats 125.3 111.9 109.3 105.2 106.5 105.2Horses 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.2Buffalos 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6Camels 20.5 18.0 19.0 20.0 20.5 21.0Fur animals 13.3 12.7 13.2 13.8 13.7 13.6

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Table 10: Use of mineral fertilizer [kt N]

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Mineral N fertilizers use (excl. urea)

9088 8372 8500 8517 8093 8042

Urea application (incl. ABC) 1806 2041 2129 2167 2044 2007

GHG emissions

Until 2030, developments as considered in PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE scenario (in particular in the power sector) result in total GHG emissions reducing by 32% relative to 1990. Emissions of the ETS sectors reduce by 36% compared to 2005 (carbon price is projected to 35 € '10/tCO2 by 2030), with 47% being the corresponding figure for power generation alone. Emissions of the Non-ETS sectors reduce by 20%.

2.3.2 The 'current legislation' (CLE) case

The Current legislation (CLE) case outlines the likely future development of emissions assuming the full implementation of EU-wide and national air pollution emission control legislation that has been agreed upon as of 2015. Thereby, this scenario provides the starting point of the cost-effectiveness analysis of further air quality-related policy interventions.

In addition to the energy, climate and agricultural policies that are included in the energy and agricultural projection, the TSAP 2013 Baseline (PRIMES 2013, CAPRI) considers a detailed inventory of national emission control legislation (including the transposition of EU-wide legislation). It is assumed that these regulations will be fully complied with in all Member States according to the foreseen time schedule. For CO2, regulations are included in the PRIMES calculations as they affect the structure and volumes of energy consumption. For non-CO2 greenhouse gases and air pollutants, EU and Member States have issued a wide body of legislation that limits emissions from specific sources, or have indirect impacts on emissions through affecting activity rates. Most relevant for the Commission proposal on the Clean Air Policy package with respect to non-CO2 greenhouse gases is the current legislation for CH4 emissions that is assumed in the GAINS baseline projection (Box 1).

Box 1: Legislation considered for CH4 emissions

EU Landfill Directive (EC/31/1999) EU Waste Management Framework Directive (EC/98/2008) Landfill ban of biodegradable waste in AT, BE, Denmark, DE, NL, SE EU urban wastewater treatment directive (EEC/271/1991) National legislation and national practices (e.g., subsidy scheme for REN in NL)

For air pollutants, the baseline assumes the regulations described in Box 2 to Box 6. However, the analysis does not consider the impacts of other legislation for which the actual impacts on future activity levels cannot yet be quantified. This includes compliance with the air quality limit values for PM, NO2 and ozone established by the Air Quality directive, which could require, inter alia, traffic

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restrictions in urban areas and thereby modifications of the traffic volumes assumed in the baseline projection.

Although some other relevant directives such as the Nitrates directive are part of current legislation, there are some uncertainties as to how the measures can be represented in the framework of integrated assessment modelling for air quality.

The baseline assumes full implementation of this legislation according to the foreseen schedule. Derogations under the IPPC, LCP and IED directives granted by national authorities to individual plants are considered to the extent that these have been communicated by national experts to IIASA.

Box 2: Legislation considered for SO2 emissions

Directive on Industrial Emissions for large combustion plants (derogations and opt-outs are considered according to the information provided by national experts)

BAT requirements for industrial processes according to the provisions of the Industrial Emissions directive.

Directive on the sulphur content in liquid fuels Fuel Quality directive 2009/30/EC on the quality of petrol and diesel fuels, as well as the

implications of the mandatory requirements for renewable fuels/energy in the transport sector MARPOL Annex VI revisions from MEPC57 regarding sulphur content of marine fuels National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

Box 3: Legislation considered for PM10/PM2.5 emissions

Directive on Industrial Emissions for large combustion plants (derogations and opt-outs included according to information provided by national experts)

BAT requirements for industrial processes according to the provisions of the Industrial Emissions directive

For light and heavy duty vehicles: Euro standards as for NOx For non-road mobile machinery: All EU emission controls up to Stages IIIA, IIIB and IV as for NOx National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

Box 4: Legislation considered for NH3 emissions

IPPC directive for pigs and poultry production as interpreted in national legislation National legislation including elements of EU law, i.e., Nitrates and Water Framework Directives Current practice including the Code of Good Agricultural Practice For heavy duty vehicles: Euro VI emission limits, becoming mandatory for all new registrations

from 2014 (DIR 595/2009/EC).

For NOx emissions from transport, all scenarios presented here assume from 2017 onwards real-life NOx emissions to be 1.5 times higher than the Euro-6 test cycle limit value. This results in about 120 mg NOx/km for real-world driving conditions, compared to the limit value of 80 mg/km. As changes to the test procedure, e.g., using portable emissions measurement systems (PEMS), still need to be defined, between 2014 and 2017 emission factors of new cars are assumed at 310 mg

16

NOx/km. Also, inland vessels are excluded from Stage IIIB or higher emission controls, and railcars and locomotives are not subject to Stage IV controls.

Box 5: Legislation considered for NOx emissions

Directive on Industrial Emissions for large combustion plants (derogations and opt-outs are included according to information provided by national experts)

BAT requirements for industrial processes according to the provisions of the Industrial Emissions directive For light duty vehicles: All Euro standards, including adopted Euro-5 and Euro-6, becoming mandatory for all new registrations from 2011 and 2015 onwards, respectively (692/2008/EC), (see also comments below about the assumed implementation schedule of Euro-6).

For heavy duty vehicles: All Euro standards, including adopted Euro-V and Euro-VI, becoming mandatory for all new registrations from 2009 and 2014 respectively (595/2009/EC).

For motorcycles and mopeds: All Euro standards for motorcycles and mopeds up to Euro-3, mandatory for all new registrations from 2007 (DIR 2003/77/EC, DIR 2005/30/EC, DIR 2006/27/EC). Proposals for Euro-4/5/6 not yet legislated.

For non-road mobile machinery: All EU emission controls up to Stages IIIA, IIIB and IV, with introduction dates by 2006, 2011, and 2014 (DIR 2004/26/EC). Stage IIIB or higher standards do not apply to inland vessels IIIB, and railcars and locomotives are not subject to Stage IV controls.

MARPOL Annex VI revisions from MEPC57 regarding emission NOx limit values for ships National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

Box 6: Legislation considered for VOC emissions

Stage I directive (liquid fuel storage and distribution) Directive 96/69/EC (carbon canisters) For mopeds, motorcycles, light and heavy duty vehicles: Euro standards as for NOx, including

adopted Euro-5 and Euro-6 for light duty vehicles EU emission standards for motorcycles and mopeds up to Euro-3 On evaporative emissions: Euro standards up to Euro-4 (not changed for Euro-5/6) (DIR

692/2008/EC) Fuels directive (RVP of fuels) (EN 228 and EN 590) Solvents directive Products directive (paints) National legislation, e.g., Stage II (gasoline stations)

2.3.3 The 'Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions' (MTFR) case

The Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFR) case outlines the scope for additional emission reductions beyond the CLE case that can be achieved through technical emission control measures.

The GAINS model contains an inventory of measures that could bring emissions down below the baseline projections. All these measures are technically feasible and commercially available, and the GAINS model estimates for each country the scope for their application in addition to the measures that are mandated by current legislation. With the exception of non-road mobile machinery, the MTFR scenario assumes that the most effective emission controls considered in the GAINS database

17

will be applied to all new emission sources. Thereby, the scenario assumes that cleaner devices are only allowed to enter the market when old equipment is retired, which excludes the premature scrapping of existing capital stock and equipment before the end of the regular technical life time.

As this scenario maintains the activity levels of the PRIMES 2013 REFERENCE case, it does not include measures that would directly or indirectly affect volumes and structure of energy consumption, agricultural and industrial production, mobility demand and life styles.

The outlined emission reductions are considered achievable solely with readily available technical emission control measures. Changes in activity levels (e.g., due to energy efficiency improvements or economic incentive instruments) would offer additional reduction potentials. Thereby, it does not include structural changes from a more ambitious climate and energy policy or other policies such as agriculture, nor does it encompass technical and non-technical measures that may be taken at national and local level.

Finally, the MTFR analysis considers only technical measures available in 2012, with no cost adjustment or other allowance for learning over time. Thereby, it does not incorporate any allowance for the impact of learning on reducing over time the cost of achieving a given unit emission reduction.

2.3.4 The re-optimized 'Policy' scenario

Following the approach of the 2013 Clean Air Policy Package presented by the European Commission (http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/clean_air_policy.htm), the ambition level for further air quality improvements is measured relative to the additional health improvements that could be achieved by the full implementation of the MTFR scenario. The scope for additional improvements (beyond the CLE case) is defined as the ‘gap’, and the ‘gap closure’ specifies the additional percentage improvement of premature mortality between what will be achieved with current legislation and what can be achieved with implementation of all available technical measures. The GAINS optimization has then identified the set of emission control measures that would deliver the health improvements in the most cost-effective way, i.e., at least cost.

In line with the original proposal of the European Commission, the re-optimized Policy scenario in the TSAP 16 report identifies the set of additional emission control measures (beyond what is included in the CLE scenario) that achieve 67% of the further improvements in human health that could be achieved by the full implementation of all technical measures, i.e., by the MTFR scenario.

Along the rationale of the 2013 Clean Air Policy Package presented by the European Commission, the number of life years lost that can be attributed to the exposure to PM2.5 in ambient air has been chosen as the metric for premature mortality. With the updated information on historic emission inventories for the year 2005 and the potential for further emission reductions (IIASA, TSAP Report #14), at the EU-28 level, the 67% ‘gap closure’ (i.e., the target of realizing 67% of the achievable health improvements) corresponds for 2030 to a 52% reduction in premature mortality compared to 2005.

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http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/clean_air_policy.htm

3. Main assumptions per MS

The key assumptions used for the TSAP16 scenarios are listed in summary tables per MS, for the base year 2005 and the target year 2030. It includes the key demographic and economic projections, primary energy consumption projections and key projections for the transport sector, electricity production and agricultural sector.

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3.1 Austria

AUSTRIA Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 8,20 8,85Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,40 2,20Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 16,39 21,91KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 244,96 353,86Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 29,87 39,99Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 220,94 319,73→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 3,86 3,84→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 17,96 19,76→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 5,56 7,10→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 40,04 56,19→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 154,09 232,83ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 1428,90 1392,36→ power and heat plants PJ 79,26 44,12→ transformation PJ 91,05 113,53→ residential combustion PJ 419,54 390,99→ industrial combustion PJ 374,15 378,54→ road vehicles PJ 327,91 302,48→ non-road machinery PJ 65,14 77,00→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 71,84 85,71Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 1428,90 1392,36→ solids PJ 129,86 64,60→ oil PJ 604,05 501,11→ gas PJ 375,98 326,78→ renewables PJ 311,79 492,92→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 3,76 -4,37→ other PJ 3,47 11,31RES Share in primary energy consumption % 21,82 35,40Import dependency (PRIMES) % 71,40 64,03TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 95,51 133,54→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 31,99 24,87→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 47,30 83,57→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 14,58 21,42→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 1,30 2,31→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,34 1,38Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 5237,03 6822,17→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 2214,04 1664,17→ LDV diesel k vehicles 2510,65 4103,10→ HDV diesel k vehicles 97,39 94,03→ two-wheelers k vehicles 408,49 865,07→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 6,46 95,80ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 64,07 76,37→ solids TWhe 7,17 0,41→ oil TWhe 1,64 0,33→ gas TWhe 14,35 7,71→ biomass-waste TWhe 2,88 7,12→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 38,03 60,80→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 41,30 32,70AGRICULTURELivestock number per animal type

→ beef cattle M animals 1,48 1,47→ dairy cows M animals 0,53 0,56→ pigs M animals 3,17 3,00→ poultry M animals 13,03 12,25Mineral fertilizer use kt N 100,25 123,13→ urea based kt N 7,48 10,91→ other kt N 92,77 112,22Milk yield kg/cow 5783,01 6779,62Land use M ha 7,41 7,41→ forest M ha 3,72 3,72→ grassland M ha 2,29 2,29

20

→ arable (ploughing, tilling, harvesting) M ha 1,40 1,40

3.2 Belgium

BELGIUM Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 10,45 12,20Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,35 2,20Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 15,03 18,36KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 302,60 429,47Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 28,97 35,19Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 269,59 382,32→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 1,87 2,21→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 14,79 20,90→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 7,78 12,51→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 41,82 49,25→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 203,82 297,46ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 2566,52 2223,23→ power and heat plants PJ 511,84 112,04→ transformation PJ 121,57 222,14→ residential combustion PJ 623,91 591,53→ industrial combustion PJ 562,00 532,50→ road vehicles PJ 345,08 325,83→ non-road machinery PJ 87,44 109,10→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 314,69 330,10Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 2566,52 2223,23→ solids PJ 159,02 58,13→ oil PJ 1135,97 1063,54→ gas PJ 659,58 738,19→ renewables PJ 75,75 287,89→ nuclear PJ 514,03 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 22,17 75,25→ other PJ 0,01 0,22RES Share in primary energy consumption % 2,95 12,95Import dependency (PRIMES) % 80,10 88,88TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 90,78 97,99→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 25,71 10,05→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 52,82 70,26→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 10,37 13,29→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 1,02 1,23→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,85 3,16Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 5702,11 5351,99→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 2404,44 938,60→ LDV diesel k vehicles 2566,41 3360,62→ HDV diesel k vehicles 215,70 276,28→ two-wheelers k vehicles 441,45 522,33→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 74,11 254,15ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 85,71 75,45→ solids TWhe 8,20 1,88→ oil TWhe 1,74 0,99→ gas TWhe 25,14 40,23→ biomass-waste TWhe 2,52 8,78→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 0,52 23,57→ nuclear TWhe 47,60 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 42,10 52,00AGRICULTURE

Livestock number per animal type→ beef cattle M animals 2,06 1,73→ dairy cows M animals 0,55 0,59→ pigs M animals 6,25 5,87→ poultry M animals 36,02 36,35Mineral fertilizer use kt N 146,50 154,71→ urea based kt N 0,90 1,26→ other kt N 145,60 153,45Milk yield kg/cow 5641,94 7615,45Land use M ha 2,12 2,12→ forest M ha 0,60 0,60

21

→ grassland M ha 0,72 0,72→ arable (ploughing, tilling, harvesting) M ha 0,80 0,80

3.3 Bulgaria

BULGARIA Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 7,76 6,61Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,65 2,40Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 1,76 3,69KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 23,25 37,97Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 3,00 5,74Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 19,50 32,69→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 1,38 1,22→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 1,31 2,06→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 1,19 1,72→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 2,68 5,36→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 13,08 22,32ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 847,58 722,15→ power and heat plants PJ 306,31 215,04→ transformation PJ 94,44 73,04→ residential combustion PJ 128,20 158,61→ industrial combustion PJ 155,62 119,53→ road vehicles PJ 97,71 97,98→ non-road machinery PJ 20,63 24,04→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 44,67 33,92Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 847,58 722,15→ solids PJ 299,21 223,56→ oil PJ 206,42 150,57→ gas PJ 119,11 141,57→ renewables PJ 48,40 94,60→ nuclear PJ 202,05 169,21→ electricity and heat PJ -27,61 -57,36→ other PJ 0,00 0,00RES Share in primary energy consumption % 5,71 13,10Import dependency (PRIMES) % 47,50 38,66TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 19,20 39,98→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 7,56 7,12→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 7,49 25,91→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 2,80 3,88→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,65 1,89→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,70 1,18Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 3490,92 4476,97→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 2058,47 970,40→ LDV diesel k vehicles 564,85 1768,31→ HDV diesel k vehicles 126,05 142,91→ two-wheelers k vehicles 534,96 901,41→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 206,59 693,95ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 43,97 58,41→ solids TWhe 18,46 24,06→ oil TWhe 0,61 0,47→ gas TWhe 1,90 8,61→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,02 0,26→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 4,34 9,69→ nuclear TWhe 18,65 15,31→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 27,00 44,80AGRICULTURE

Livestock number per animal type→ beef cattle M animals 0,28 0,29→ dairy cows M animals 0,35 0,24→ pigs M animals 0,93 0,66→ poultry M animals 19,50 20,62Mineral fertilizer use kt N 136,80 247,25→ urea based kt N 15,00 11,13→ other kt N 121,80 236,12Milk yield kg/cow 3641,00 4759,22Land use M ha 8,83 8,83

22

→ forest M ha 3,45 3,45→ grassland M ha 1,08 1,08→ arable (ploughing, tilling, harvesting) M ha 4,3 4,3

3.4 Croatia

CROATIA Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 4,47 4,66Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,50 2,30Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 4,32 7,50KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 36,41 56,07Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 8,15 12,04

Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 47,40

→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 2,02

→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 2,85

→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 0,48

→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 7,32

→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 34,74ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 375,70 366,18→ power and heat plants PJ 29,80 11,50→ transformation PJ 49,56 41,34→ residential combustion PJ 113,19 124,75→ industrial combustion PJ 63,94 65,67→ road vehicles PJ 72,27 77,68→ non-road machinery PJ 16,99 20,60→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 29,94 24,65Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 375,69 366,18→ solids PJ 28,66 10,97→ oil PJ 191,01 143,90→ gas PJ 100,02 112,65→ renewables PJ 37,91 76,79→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 18,09 21,88→ other PJ 0,00 0,00RES Share in primary energy consumption % 10,09 20,97Import dependency (PRIMES) % 58,60 72,30TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 21,18 17,33→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 12,25 5,13→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 6,48 9,19→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 2,10 2,67→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,12 0,15→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,23 0,19Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 1488,46 1136,75→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 1065,18 445,82→ LDV diesel k vehicles 341,16 483,78→ HDV diesel k vehicles 44,76 56,89→ two-wheelers k vehicles 26,39 33,46→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 10,97 116,80ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 12,35 14,78→ solids TWhe 2,33 0,47→ oil TWhe 1,86 0,18→ gas TWhe 1,81 3,86→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,01 0,70→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 6,34 9,58→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 34,90 44,50AGRICULTURE

Livestock number per animal type→ beef cattle M animals 0,24 0,29→ dairy cows M animals 0,23 0,20→ pigs M animals 1,21 1,75→ poultry M animals 10,64 9,30

23

Mineral fertilizer use kt N 121,31 77,76→ urea based kt N 41,94 32,03→ other kt N 79,37 45,73Milk yield kg/cow 3137,26 5357,00Land use M ha 3,46 3,46→ forest M ha 1,34 1,34→ grassland M ha 0,62 0,62→ arable (ploughing, tilling, harvesting) M ha 1,50 1,50

3.5 Cyprus

CYPRUS Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 0,75 0,97Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,90 2,50Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 11,63 14,84KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 13,56 21,24Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 18,10 21,82Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 12,22 19,13→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 0,42 0,34→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 1,41 1,46→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 0,19 0,28→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 0,98 1,13→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 9,21 15,91ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 108,70 112,93→ power and heat plants PJ 29,33 14,79→ transformation PJ 1,49 4,14→ residential combustion PJ 20,80 32,37→ industrial combustion PJ 11,37 10,78→ road vehicles PJ 28,25 29,08→ non-road machinery PJ 14,52 18,25→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 2,94 3,54Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 108,70 112,93→ solids PJ 1,49 0,45→ oil PJ 104,89 60,54→ gas PJ 0,00 31,50→ renewables PJ 2,26 20,44→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 0,05 -0,01→ other PJ 0,00 0,00RES Share in primary energy consumption % 2,08 18,10Import dependency (PRIMES) % 100,70 -72,70TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 8,02 13,48→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 4,34 6,56→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 2,80 6,01→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 0,37 0,34→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,27 0,25→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,25 0,31Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 627,72 932,30→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 384,83 498,63→ LDV diesel k vehicles 157,51 331,10→ HDV diesel k vehicles 16,32 14,90→ two-wheelers k vehicles 59,92 73,64→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 9,14 14,02ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 4,38 7,16→ solids TWhe 0,00 0,00→ oil TWhe 4,38 0,03→ gas TWhe 0,00 4,88→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,00 0,15→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 0,00 2,10→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 34,90 57,70AGRICULTURE

Livestock number per animal type→ beef cattle M animals 0,03 0,03→ dairy cows M animals 0,02 0,02→ pigs M animals 0,43 0,54

24

→ poultry M animals 3,34 2,63Mineral fertilizer use kt N 8,96 5,61→ urea based kt N 0,63 0,25→ other kt N 8,33 5,36Milk yield kg/cow 5955,66 8182,90Land use M ha 0,09 0,08→ forest M ha 0,00 0,00→ grassland M ha 0,00 0,00→ arable (ploughing, tilling, harvesting) M ha 0,08 0,08

3.6 Czech Republic

CZECH REPUBLIC Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 10,22 10,84Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,45 2,30Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 5,03 8,10KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 104,15 174,33Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 10,19 16,08Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 92,65 157,18→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 2,58 1,87→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 7,02 9,92→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 4,87 7,48→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 18,30 36,71→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 61,00 101,20ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 1873,34 1833,49→ power and heat plants PJ 527,86 418,45→ transformation PJ 125,57 133,48→ residential combustion PJ 412,15 425,34→ industrial combustion PJ 412,09 435,86→ road vehicles PJ 230,83 247,75→ non-road machinery PJ 39,07 47,58→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 125,77 125,03Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 1873,34 1833,49→ solids PJ 761,94 359,34→ oil PJ 427,56 425,62→ gas PJ 382,99 391,75→ renewables PJ 81,86 215,53→ nuclear PJ 268,16 475,90→ electricity and heat PJ -49,17 -34,66→ other PJ 0,01 0,01RES Share in primary energy consumption % 4,37 11,76Import dependency (PRIMES) % 28,30 33,20TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 70,53 104,39→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 31,04 23,35→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 25,87 59,36→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 7,83 13,40→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 4,72 6,15→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 1,07 2,13Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 5484,68 6569,76→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 3246,28 2170,03→ LDV diesel k vehicles 793,22 2299,62→ HDV diesel k vehicles 181,24 224,83→ two-wheelers k vehicles 1220,02 1740,58→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 43,92 134,69ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 81,93 81,42→ solids TWhe 49,52 18,52→ oil TWhe 0,33 0,01→ gas TWhe 4,22 6,44→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,74 5,07→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 2,40 6,30→ nuclear TWhe 24,73 45,07→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 30,00 31,80AGRICULTURE

Livestock number per animal type→ beef cattle M animals 0,91 0,70→ dairy cows M animals 0,44 0,43

25

→ pigs M animals 2,72 1,74→ poultry M animals 31,00 37,36Mineral fertilizer use kt N 206,58 242,81→ urea based kt N 41,32 48,35→ other kt N 165,26 194,46Milk yield kg/cow 6394,94 8759,61Land use M ha 6,12 6,12→ forest M ha 2,53 2,53→ grassland M ha 0,49 0,49→ arable (ploughing, tilling, harvesting) M ha 3,10 3,10

3.7 Denmark

DENMARK Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 5,41 5,89Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,15 2,10Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 17,13 23,24KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 207,37 275,48Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 38,32 46,75Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 178,12 237,07→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 2,57 2,40→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 9,98 10,37→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 11,12 9,66→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 21,66 25,31→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 132,47 189,33ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 852,80 745,92→ power and heat plants PJ 86,59 42,45→ transformation PJ 93,54 83,82→ residential combustion PJ 291,52 271,15→ industrial combustion PJ 107,71 100,20→ road vehicles PJ 170,56 146,42→ non-road machinery PJ 90,78 89,91→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 12,10 11,98Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 852,80 745,92→ solids PJ 155,40 6,48→ oil PJ 369,65 286,81→ gas PJ 187,55 192,29→ renewables PJ 135,32 263,73→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 4,87 -3,49→ other PJ 0,01 0,09RES Share in primary energy consumption % 15,87 35,36Import dependency (PRIMES) % -50,90 19,70TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 55,23 66,54→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 30,62 18,78→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 19,29 41,67→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 3,51 3,71→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 1,03 0,80→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,78 1,58Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 2713,56 3164,68→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 1858,89 1237,33→ LDV diesel k vehicles 526,78 1539,59→ HDV diesel k vehicles 48,07 46,95→ two-wheelers k vehicles 269,68 289,30→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 10,15 51,51ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 36,25 34,52→ solids TWhe 15,46 0,28→ oil TWhe 1,38 0,19→ gas TWhe 8,78 8,82→ biomass-waste TWhe 3,99 4,91→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 6,64 20,33→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 35,70 29,90AGRICULTURE

Livestock number per animal type→ beef cattle M animals 1,01 0,88

26

→ dairy cows M animals 0,56 0,52→ pigs M animals 13,53 12,38→ poultry M animals 17,63 20,77Mineral fertilizer use kt N 206,25 158,03→ urea based kt N 0,21 0,00→ other kt N 206,04 158,03Milk yield kg/cow 4486,53 5194,68Land use M ha 2,96 2,96→ forest M ha 0,40 0,40→ grassland M ha 0,26 0,26→ arable (ploughing, tilling, harvesting) M ha 2,3 2,30

3.8 Estonia

ESTONIA Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 1,35 1,28Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,25 2,10Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 3,61 8,16KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 11,13 18,74Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 8,26 14,64Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 9,75 16,37→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 0,25 0,36→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 0,78 0,81→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 0,56 0,74→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 1,59 2,55→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 6,62 11,90ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 215,05 207,12→ power and heat plants PJ 66,35 49,76→ transformation PJ 21,95 19,13→ residential combustion PJ 55,56 67,79→ industrial combustion PJ 28,76 29,82→ road vehicles PJ 27,05 27,63→ non-road machinery PJ 7,76 11,10→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 7,62 1,90Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 215,05 207,12→ solids PJ 112,53 58,85→ oil PJ 46,45 42,76→ gas PJ 33,09 26,85→ renewables PJ 29,04 77,48→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ -6,06 1,17→ other PJ 0,00 0,00RES Share in primary energy consumption % 13,50 37,41Import dependency (PRIMES) % 25,20 -7,90TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 7,48 10,85→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 4,54 4,32→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 1,55 4,81→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 1,10 1,20→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,05 0,14→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,24 0,39Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 586,08 629,66→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 428,75 310,14→ LDV diesel k vehicles 111,89 247,82→ HDV diesel k vehicles 29,76 35,27→ two-wheelers k vehicles 9,91 22,62→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 5,76 13,80ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 10,21 11,66→ solids TWhe 9,30 6,45→ oil TWhe 0,03 0,00→ gas TWhe 0,76 1,58→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,04 0,90→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 0,08 2,73→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 33,50 46,10AGRICULTURE

Livestock number per animal type

27

→ beef cattle M animals 0,14 0,13→ dairy cows M animals 0,11 0,10→ pigs M animals 0,35 0,53→ poultry M animals 2,18 1,60Mineral fertilizer use kt N 29,18 41,16→ urea based kt N 8,76 12,35→ other kt N 20,43 28,81Milk yield kg/cow 5620,87 7727,64Land use M ha 3,93 3,93→ forest M ha 2,18 2,18→ grassland M ha 0,65 0,65→ arable (ploughing, tilling, harvesting) M ha 1,10 1,10

3.9 France

FRANCE Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 60,96 68,22Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,35 2,30Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 15,60 20,75KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 1710,65 2469,23Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 28,06 36,19Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 1530,39 2219,84→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 25,61 30,04→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 100,86 122,43→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 33,70 31,82→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 167,75 221,99→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 1202,17 1813,57ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 11693,44 10248,72→ power and heat plants PJ 3557,12 2796,82→ transformation PJ 640,96 650,23→ residential combustion PJ 3070,81 2741,82→ industrial combustion PJ 1531,35 1415,67→ road vehicles PJ 1762,74 1579,47→ non-road machinery PJ 522,23 547,61→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 608,24 517,11Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 11693,44 10248,72→ solids PJ 625,40 245,23→ oil PJ 3865,19 2936,22→ gas PJ 1802,30 1414,23→ renewables PJ 747,29 1892,70→ nuclear PJ 4876,51 3931,00→ electricity and heat PJ -223,30 -171,42→ other PJ 0,05 0,75RES Share in primary energy consumption % 6,39 18,47Import dependency (PRIMES) % 51,70 45,10TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 592,63 733,04→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 180,38 100,88→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 368,38 547,07→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 29,99 57,55→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 10,50 11,27→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 3,38 16,27Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 38890,48 44530,38→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 16836,26 8376,72→ LDV diesel k vehicles 18757,56 30529,39→ HDV diesel k vehicles 568,01 633,82→ two-wheelers k vehicles 2406,88 3095,02→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 321,77 1895,42ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 571,50 632,00→ solids TWhe 27,52 0,00→ oil TWhe 7,93 0,41→ gas TWhe 26,26 24,04→ biomass-waste TWhe 5,02 21,10→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 53,25 217,37→ nuclear TWhe 451,53 369,07→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 33,60 36,60AGRICULTURE

28

Livestock number per animal type→ beef cattle M animals 15,35 13,97→ dairy cows M animals 3,96 3,12→ pigs M animals 14,95 16,79→ poultry M animals 254,41 270,27Mineral fertilizer use kt N 2324,00 1875,33→ urea based kt N 252,00 251,49→ other kt N 2072,00 1623,84Milk yield kg/cow 5673,60 8085,54Land use M ha 41,11 41,11→ forest M ha 16,31 16,31→ grassland M ha 6,40 6,40→ arable (ploughing, tilling, harvesting) M ha 18,40 18,40

3.10 Finland

FINLAND Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 5,24 5,70Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,20 2,10Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 15,25 21,77KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 157,38 223,57Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 30,05 39,19Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 137,20 194,71→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 3,72 4,49→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 9,05 12,06→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 4,82 5,32→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 25,56 34,08→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 94,47 138,75ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 1462,07 1775,38→ power and heat plants PJ 233,54 454,04→ transformation PJ 87,88 121,62→ residential combustion PJ 358,29 355,23→ industrial combustion PJ 498,00 559,46→ road vehicles PJ 160,97 137,27→ non-road machinery PJ 67,78 75,57→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 55,61 72,18Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 1462,07 1775,38→ solids PJ 178,23 172,98→ oil PJ 454,36 381,16→ gas PJ 174,79 174,70→ renewables PJ 342,85 469,01→ nuclear PJ 251,33 604,67→ electricity and heat PJ 60,52 -27,16→ other PJ 0,00 0,01RES Share in primary energy consumption % 23,45 26,42Import dependency (PRIMES) % 54,20 36,50TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 52,60 59,74→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 35,06 19,19→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 12,97 34,38→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 3,13 4,13→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,85 0,65→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,59 1,38Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 3050,72 3893,18→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 2150,46 1656,42→ LDV diesel k vehicles 542,65 1703,24→ HDV diesel k vehicles 85,93 85,24→ two-wheelers k vehicles 257,02 327,72→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 14,66 120,56ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 70,57 100,38→ solids TWhe 11,00 4,45→ oil TWhe 0,50 0,02→ gas TWhe 11,92 6,04→ biomass-waste TWhe 9,89 9,50→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 13,96 20,92→ nuclear TWhe 23,31 59,44→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 37,00 20,20

29

AGRICULTURE


3.11 Germany

GERMANY Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 82,50 77,87Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,15 2,10Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 16,21 20,22KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 2215,10 2854,99Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 26,85 36,66Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 1968,80 2554,35→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 11,24 18,89→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 94,90 100,48→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 58,75 71,00→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 452,19 511,87→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 1361,85 1852,10ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 14771,92 10668,35→ power and heat plants PJ 3110,05 946,76→ transformation PJ 984,41 780,77→ residential combustion PJ 4182,12 3334,00→ industrial combustion PJ 2450,86 2319,21→ road vehicles PJ 2162,61 1609,70→ non-road machinery PJ 570,27 445,88→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 1311,60 1232,02Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 14771,92 10668,35→ solids PJ 3210,33 1562,24→ oil PJ 5564,48 3692,13→ gas PJ 3517,00 2996,52→ renewables PJ 735,38 2381,44→ nuclear PJ 1760,99 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ -16,31 33,19→ other PJ 0,05 2,84RES Share in primary energy consumption % 4,98 22,32Import dependency (PRIMES) % 61,20 69,30TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 642,94 772,78→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 355,18 203,41→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 206,47 461,42→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 65,38 80,75→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 11,37 14,91→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 4,54 12,30Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 53692,78 51381,67→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 37036,80 17952,91→ LDV diesel k vehicles 11869,21 25170,77→ HDV diesel k vehicles 813,17 760,04→ two-wheelers k vehicles 3785,00 5649,10→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 188,60 1848,85ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 613,44 590,72→ solids TWhe 297,52 135,19→ oil TWhe 10,58 1,62→ gas TWhe 77,60 144,06→ biomass-waste TWhe 16,59 64,42→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 48,09 245,44→ nuclear TWhe 163,06 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00

30

Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 39,00 46,60AGRICULTURE


3.12 Greece

GREECE Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 11,08 11,58Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,75 2,50Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 11,66 13,96KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 195,61 223,71Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 17,65 19,32Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 173,59 197,40→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 7,07 5,60→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 10,65 9,57→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 6,53 5,85→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 16,98 18,64→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 132,21 157,74ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 1340,78 1039,26→ power and heat plants PJ 328,46 108,35→ transformation PJ 95,97 95,66→ residential combustion PJ 301,09 277,87→ industrial combustion PJ 167,22 160,72→ road vehicles PJ 292,90 217,29→ non-road machinery PJ 123,30 128,21→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 31,85 51,16Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 1340,78 1039,26→ solids PJ 383,40 69,93→ oil PJ 775,37 526,30→ gas PJ 98,81 214,33→ renewables PJ 69,77 206,60→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 13,43 21,99→ other PJ 0,01 0,11RES Share in primary energy consumption % 5,20 19,88Import dependency (PRIMES) % 68,60 79,30TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 79,15 118,09→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 49,28 31,48→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 11,70 64,58→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 5,20 6,53→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 12,22 13,88→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,75 1,62Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 8307,70 9059,29→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 5121,70 2986,19→ LDV diesel k vehicles 354,77 1979,83→ HDV diesel k vehicles 247,26 257,17→ two-wheelers k vehicles 2539,67 3697,14→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 44,30 138,95ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 59,43 57,48→ solids TWhe 35,54 7,07→ oil TWhe 9,21 2,60→ gas TWhe 8,17 22,26→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,22 0,59→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 6,28 24,97→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00

31

→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 36,50 48,20AGRICULTURE


3.13 HungaryHUNGARY Unit 2005 2030

KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 10,10 9,70Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,40 2,20Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 4,28 6,33KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 89,37 116,06Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 8,85 11,96Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 75,60 98,11→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 3,47 3,31→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 4,48 4,32→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 3,83 4,22→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 14,78 20,43→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 50,00 65,82ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 1156,68 1178,59→ power and heat plants PJ 222,35 250,09→ transformation PJ 84,49 91,32→ residential combustion PJ 432,16 392,60→ industrial combustion PJ 141,64 131,66→ road vehicles PJ 159,57 167,06→ non-road machinery PJ 26,53 30,98→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 89,94 114,90Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 1156,68 1178,59→ solids PJ 116,21 43,10→ oil PJ 300,96 302,73→ gas PJ 514,72 353,45→ renewables PJ 52,27 126,64→ nuclear PJ 150,08 340,74→ electricity and heat PJ 22,43 11,92→ other PJ 0,01 0,02RES Share in primary energy consumption % 4,52 10,75Import dependency (PRIMES) % 63,20 50,70TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 46,55 79,22→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 24,84 23,15→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 13,92 45,51→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 5,47 6,97→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 1,60 2,13→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,72 1,45Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 3548,90 5189,97→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 2187,23 2036,20→ LDV diesel k vehicles 701,92 2292,44→ HDV diesel k vehicles 99,76 125,99→ two-wheelers k vehicles 393,54 583,50→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 166,45 151,84ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 35,76 44,63→ solids TWhe 7,02 1,35→ oil TWhe 0,46 0,27→ gas TWhe 12,50 3,79→ biomass-waste TWhe 1,73 3,59→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 0,21 3,34

32

→ nuclear TWhe 13,83 32,29→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 32,80 31,60AGRICULTURE


3.14 Ireland

IRELAND Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 4,11 5,28Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,90 2,60Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 17,73 23,83KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 162,08 271,16Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 39,42 51,39Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 140,32 245,29→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 2,68 2,88→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 9,23 7,71→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 1,54 4,08→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 28,69 62,57→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 97,81 168,04ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 684,05 649,62→ power and heat plants PJ 110,80 31,99→ transformation PJ 32,66 37,74→ residential combustion PJ 194,02 205,50→ industrial combustion PJ 110,77 126,54→ road vehicles PJ 171,99 179,87→ non-road machinery PJ 50,91 52,37→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 12,91 15,62Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 684,05 649,62→ solids PJ 113,66 28,71→ oil PJ 397,62 331,15→ gas PJ 149,35 136,97→ renewables PJ 15,23 140,67→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 8,18 12,11→ other PJ 0,01 0,01RES Share in primary energy consumption % 2,23 21,65Import dependency (PRIMES) % 89,40 75,30TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 54,23 92,40→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 29,58 49,46→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 14,22 21,37→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 9,36 20,08→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,63 0,97→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,44 0,52Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 2308,21 3730,05→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 1463,19 2492,45→ LDV diesel k vehicles 562,23 813,14→ HDV diesel k vehicles 110,76 200,55→ two-wheelers k vehicles 156,20 214,89→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 15,82 9,01ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 25,63 32,36→ solids TWhe 8,84 0,99→ oil TWhe 3,34 0,07→ gas TWhe 11,57 9,92→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,13 1,60

33

→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 1,74 19,78→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 43,30 51,80AGRICULTURE


3.15 Italy

ITALY Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 58,46 64,49Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,50 2,30Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 14,32 16,41KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 1436,59 1795,45Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 24,57 27,84Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 1282,79 1608,51→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 24,68 25,75→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 86,84 94,95→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 25,86 30,52→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 220,75 243,63→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 925,18 1213,66ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 8013,92 7094,93→ power and heat plants PJ 1327,51 865,29→ transformation PJ 574,96 632,06→ residential combustion PJ 2031,10 1993,33→ industrial combustion PJ 1677,51 1360,47→ road vehicles PJ 1627,20 1403,02→ non-road machinery PJ 415,27 429,77→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 360,38 410,98Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 8013,92 7094,93→ solids PJ 633,37 570,81→ oil PJ 3628,96 2548,89→ gas PJ 3045,94 2490,18→ renewables PJ 547,78 1419,89→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 157,83 65,01→ other PJ 0,03 0,15RES Share in primary energy consumption % 6,84 20,01Import dependency (PRIMES) % 84,40 70,30TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 546,49 708,48→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 207,96 113,56→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 242,90 498,68→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 34,94 41,43→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 56,25 47,40→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 4,44 7,41Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 57413,73 56977,28→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 23815,34 12348,65→ LDV diesel k vehicles 17483,98 27253,87→ HDV diesel k vehicles 622,79 873,71→ two-wheelers k vehicles 13598,34 11129,72→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 1893,29 5371,33ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 296,84 350,22→ solids TWhe 43,61 60,03→ oil TWhe 47,12 4,90→ gas TWhe 156,19 115,59

34

→ biomass-waste TWhe 6,15 22,86→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 43,77 146,85→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 296,84 350,22Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 37,70 42,50AGRICULTURE


3.16 Latvia

LATVIA Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 2,31 2,02Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,50 2,30Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 2,81 6,85KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 12,86 20,51Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 5,57 10,14Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 11,19 18,39→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 0,44 0,54→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 0,88 0,96→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 0,39 0,50→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 1,59 2,23→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 7,86 14,15ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 192,24 219,69→ power and heat plants PJ 9,35 13,47→ transformation PJ 10,08 12,39→ residential combustion PJ 94,07 98,06→ industrial combustion PJ 29,10 33,91→ road vehicles PJ 38,40 44,16→ non-road machinery PJ 7,19 13,78→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 4,06 3,92Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 192,24 219,69→ solids PJ 3,43 3,16→ oil PJ 62,89 70,11→ gas PJ 56,86 59,24→ renewables PJ 61,71 84,91→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 7,35 2,29→ other PJ 0,00 0,00RES Share in primary energy consumption % 32,10 38,65Import dependency (PRIMES) % 63,00 54,20TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 9,92 16,48→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 4,71 2,32→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 3,51 12,12→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 1,01 1,68→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,23 0,18→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,45 0,18Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 836,03 1253,82→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 566,48 248,50→ LDV diesel k vehicles 116,79 837,45→ HDV diesel k vehicles 69,54 53,77→ two-wheelers k vehicles 31,71 50,67→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 51,51 63,43ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 4,91 8,71→ solids TWhe 0,00 0,08→ oil TWhe 0,01 0,05

35

→ gas TWhe 1,49 2,68→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,04 0,96→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 3,37 4,94→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 0,000 0,000Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 21,90 32,90AGRICULTURE


3.17 Lithuania

LITHUANIA Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 3,43 3,04Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,70 2,40Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 3,44 7,46KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 20,87 33,33Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 6,09 10,95Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 18,73 29,90→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 0,69 0,69→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 1,38 1,54→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 1,67 1,46→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 2,76 4,49→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 12,38 21,73ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 366,72 361,46→ power and heat plants PJ 89,70 84,14→ transformation PJ 50,99 48,08→ residential combustion PJ 90,55 93,68→ industrial combustion PJ 41,23 45,03→ road vehicles PJ 53,89 58,46→ non-road machinery PJ 6,70 8,69→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 33,66 23,38Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 366,72 361,46→ solids PJ 8,48 7,03→ oil PJ 115,84 101,50→ gas PJ 102,51 103,30→ renewables PJ 37,33 57,47→ nuclear PJ 113,57 108,74→ electricity and heat PJ -11,02 -16,58→ other PJ 0,00 0,00RES Share in primary energy consumption % 10,18 15,90Import dependency (PRIMES) % 57,10 52,40TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 9,54 15,92→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 4,73 3,52→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 2,60 9,19→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 1,70 2,29→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,05 0,16→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,46 0,77Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 1590,73 1879,86→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 779,20 378,59→ LDV diesel k vehicles 260,82 591,80→ HDV diesel k vehicles 55,18 82,18→ two-wheelers k vehicles 24,35 58,87→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 471,18 768,42ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 14,42 18,09→ solids TWhe 0,00 0,00

36

→ oil TWhe 0,40 0,02→ gas TWhe 3,22 4,61→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,01 1,38→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 0,45 1,00→ nuclear TWhe 10,34 11,08→ other TWhe 0,000 0,000Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 25,40 30,40AGRICULTURE


3.18 Luxembourg

LUXEMBOURG Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 0,46 0,63Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,55 2,40Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 21,66 25,48KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 30,57 48,51Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 66,28 77,50Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 27,53 44,03→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 0,10 0,09→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 1,55 1,83→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 0,57 0,35→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 2,52 2,21→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 22,81 39,56ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 197,29 201,43→ power and heat plants PJ 11,20 6,22→ transformation PJ 1,69 12,59→ residential combustion PJ 38,50 39,81→ industrial combustion PJ 30,13 28,22→ road vehicles PJ 95,25 91,44→ non-road machinery PJ 19,64 22,47→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 0,88 0,69Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 197,29 201,43→ solids PJ 3,24 1,19→ oil PJ 128,52 122,77→ gas PJ 49,25 35,74→ renewables PJ 4,50 24,68→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 11,77 17,04→ other PJ 0,00 0,01RES Share in primary energy consumption % 2,28 12,25Import dependency (PRIMES) % 97,40 93,00TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 20,85 22,06→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 7,14 5,39→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 7,00 9,32→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 6,58 7,09→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,06 0,13→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,06 0,13Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 270,89 255,23→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 172,49 117,90→ LDV diesel k vehicles 76,60 104,37→ HDV diesel k vehicles 17,13 18,33→ two-wheelers k vehicles 4,11 11,94→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 0,56 2,70ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 3,35 3,34

37

→ solids TWhe 0,00 0,00→ oil TWhe 0,00 0,00→ gas TWhe 3,11 1,88→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,08 0,44→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 0,16 1,02→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 47,40 50,40AGRICULTURE


3.19 Malta

MALTA Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 0,40 0,42Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,75 2,50Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 5,47 8,35KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 4,73 7,41Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 11,76 17,77Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 3,81 6,44→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 0,10 0,08→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 0,19 0,24→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 0,02 0,06→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 0,61 0,79→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 2,89 5,27ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 40,89 29,09→ power and heat plants PJ 19,46 3,64→ transformation PJ 1,02 2,37→ residential combustion PJ 6,27 7,32→ industrial combustion PJ 2,48 2,17→ road vehicles PJ 6,50 6,29→ non-road machinery PJ 4,34 6,85→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 0,83 0,44Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 40,89 29,09→ solids PJ 0,00 0,00→ oil PJ 40,89 15,02→ gas PJ 0,00 8,48→ renewables PJ 0,00 4,87→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 0,00 0,72→ other PJ 0,00 0,00RES Share in primary energy consumption % 0,00 16,74Import dependency (PRIMES) % 100,00 95,60TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 1,85 2,17→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 1,21 0,74→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 0,12 0,94→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 0,44 0,41→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,04 0,05→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,04 0,03Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 225,99 325,21→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 159,33 105,31→ LDV diesel k vehicles 15,73 155,66→ HDV diesel k vehicles 37,70 46,22→ two-wheelers k vehicles 12,03 15,52→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 1,21 2,49ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

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Gross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 2,24 2,30→ solids TWhe 0,00 0,00→ oil TWhe 2,24 0,03→ gas TWhe 0,00 1,40→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,00 0,05→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 0,00 0,82→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,000Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 29,30 59,40AGRICULTURE


3.20 Netherlands

NETHERLANDS Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 16,31 17,58Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,40 2,20Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 15,04 18,21KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 513,46 718,39Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 31,49 40,87Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 454,67 641,94→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 8,14 9,62→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 27,88 32,68→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 23,99 27,48→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 57,80 76,69→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 336,47 495,46ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 3452,84 3329,16→ power and heat plants PJ 289,45 282,87→ transformation PJ 341,68 301,86→ residential combustion PJ 890,13 874,41→ industrial combustion PJ 698,32 560,75→ road vehicles PJ 460,33 434,61→ non-road machinery PJ 228,11 212,97→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 544,81 661,68Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 3452,84 3329,16→ solids PJ 288,18 309,31→ oil PJ 1410,14 1272,06→ gas PJ 1525,86 1308,04→ renewables PJ 119,60 400,91→ nuclear PJ 43,17 52,14→ electricity and heat PJ 65,87 -13,64→ other PJ 0,01 0,33RES Share in primary energy consumption % 3,46 12,04Import dependency (PRIMES) % 38,40 47,10TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 137,38 161,86→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 61,71 49,51→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 65,48 98,88→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 7,41 8,69→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 2,52 3,65→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,26 1,13Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 8917,47 11595,52→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 5803,79 4749,10→ LDV diesel k vehicles 1474,84 4401,41→ HDV diesel k vehicles 232,32 160,08→ two-wheelers k vehicles 1164,92 1658,63→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 241,59 626,30

39

ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 100,22 136,19→ solids TWhe 23,50 32,03→ oil TWhe 2,26 1,49→ gas TWhe 61,59 48,34→ biomass-waste TWhe 6,68 13,69→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 2,19 35,67→ nuclear TWhe 4,00 4,97→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 41,50 43,70AGRICULTURE


3.21 Poland

POLAND Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 38,17 37,57Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 3,05 2,60Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 4,20 8,36KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 244,44 489,74Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 6,40 13,04Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 215,76 431,21→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 11,14 12,21→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 14,45 33,39→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 14,23 21,34→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 28,10 80,10→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 151,10 284,16ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 3851,22 4965,54→ power and heat plants PJ 846,73 893,29→ transformation PJ 366,40 502,41→ residential combustion PJ 1171,80 1442,66→ industrial combustion PJ 707,69 935,47→ road vehicles PJ 472,96 793,37→ non-road machinery PJ 95,35 131,42→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 190,29 266,92Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 3851,22 4965,54→ solids PJ 2162,39 1685,19→ oil PJ 938,36 1242,25→ gas PJ 584,70 883,56→ renewables PJ 207,50 699,32→ nuclear PJ 0,00 467,17→ electricity and heat PJ -41,75 -12,01→ other PJ 0,01 0,06RES Share in primary energy consumption % 5,39 14,08Import dependency (PRIMES) % 17,60 33,90TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 125,06 327,53→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 60,41 61,81→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 50,26 218,07→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 10,48 36,41→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 2,67 6,77→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 1,24 4,46Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 15630,66 37152,11→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 9750,90 7871,72→ LDV diesel k vehicles 2961,81 18170,55→ HDV diesel k vehicles 620,27 1270,99→ two-wheelers k vehicles 1116,48 2686,35

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→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 1181,21 7152,49ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 155,36 219,83→ solids TWhe 142,16 117,94→ oil TWhe 2,76 0,30→ gas TWhe 6,36 16,26→ biomass-waste TWhe 1,75 14,30→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 2,34 22,47→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 48,57→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 155,36 219,83AGRICULTURE


3.22 Portugal

PORTUGAL Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 10,53 10,78Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,70 2,40Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 9,46 12,44KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 154,95 201,32Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 14,72 18,68Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 133,34 176,14→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 3,25 3,22→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 11,44 10,44→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 3,37 5,00→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 18,91 20,50→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 96,64 136,98ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 1144,12 965,67→ power and heat plants PJ 161,54 38,61→ transformation PJ 74,06 90,58→ residential combustion PJ 241,15 212,40→ industrial combustion PJ 250,83 239,71→ road vehicles PJ 250,30 241,42→ non-road machinery PJ 61,35 74,91→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 104,89 68,05Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 1144,12 965,67→ solids PJ 139,61 2,96→ oil PJ 673,19 463,33→ gas PJ 155,43 116,37→ renewables PJ 151,33 364,30→ nuclear PJ 0,00 0,00→ electricity and heat PJ 24,56 18,68→ other PJ 0,00 0,03RES Share in primary energy consumption % 13,23 37,73Import dependency (PRIMES) % 88,50 63,20TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 99,94 130,33→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 36,33 13,62→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 54,26 107,85→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 4,92 5,72→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 3,97 2,13→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,46 1,00Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 6641,10 7862,17→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 2469,41 1293,74→ LDV diesel k vehicles 2953,71 5806,87→ HDV diesel k vehicles 102,51 160,83

41

→ two-wheelers k vehicles 1084,08 556,80→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 31,40 43,92ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 46,19 57,24→ solids TWhe 15,23 0,20→ oil TWhe 8,79 0,10→ gas TWhe 13,61 6,30→ biomass-waste TWhe 1,99 5,39→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 6,58 45,26→ nuclear TWhe 0,00 0,00→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 46,19 57,24AGRICULTURE


3.23 Romania

ROMANIA Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 21,66 20,25Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 3,05 2,60Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 2,00 4,36KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 80,05 130,43Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 3,70 6,44Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 71,01 117,76→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 6,08 5,92→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 5,15 10,84→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 3,81 5,61→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 15,97 28,32→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 40,32 67,07ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 1642,77 1580,03→ power and heat plants PJ 263,47 184,62→ transformation PJ 226,36 206,24→ residential combustion PJ 433,01 464,03→ industrial combustion PJ 423,37 364,35→ road vehicles PJ 161,13 223,30→ non-road machinery PJ 33,41 64,82→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 102,02 72,67Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 1642,77 1580,03→ solids PJ 326,19 225,25→ oil PJ 462,44 431,47→ gas PJ 596,07 448,14→ renewables PJ 210,75 352,30→ nuclear PJ 59,99 155,66→ electricity and heat PJ -12,68 -32,81→ other PJ 0,00 0,00RES Share in primary energy consumption % 12,83 22,30Import dependency (PRIMES) % 27,60 17,40TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 35,49 80,65→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 21,56 20,12→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 6,29 52,18→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 5,84 4,75→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,84 1,43→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,96 2,17Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 4056,02 7755,06→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 2726,72 2164,70→ LDV diesel k vehicles 760,38 4255,76

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→ HDV diesel k vehicles 185,85 315,83→ two-wheelers k vehicles 231,24 394,73→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 151,83 624,04ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 59,41 78,45→ solids TWhe 21,92 13,71→ oil TWhe 1,89 2,01→ gas TWhe 9,83 11,52→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,01 3,93→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 20,21 32,39→ nuclear TWhe 5,56 14,88→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 59,41 78,45AGRICULTURE


3.24 Slovakia

SLOVAKIA Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 5,38 5,58Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 3,15 2,80Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 4,34 8,38KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 38,50 77,66Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 7,15 13,92Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 34,15 70,58→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 1,32 1,57→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 2,63 6,32→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 1,56 3,88→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 6,47 16,34→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 22,41 42,46ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 803,21 871,54→ power and heat plants PJ 188,87 208,22→ transformation PJ 90,01 61,78→ residential combustion PJ 205,57 216,98→ industrial combustion PJ 178,13 224,32→ road vehicles PJ 71,23 102,99→ non-road machinery PJ 5,60 7,99→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 63,80 49,25Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 803,21 871,53→ solids PJ 138,65 107,58→ oil PJ 168,79 159,31→ gas PJ 258,14 213,20→ renewables PJ 55,97 123,56→ nuclear PJ 193,68 279,67→ electricity and heat PJ -12,03 -11,79→ other PJ 0,00 0,00RES Share in primary energy consumption % 6,97 14,18Import dependency (PRIMES) % 65,40 55,40TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 18,84 41,69→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 10,48 10,68→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 3,74 23,84→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 3,59 5,35→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,53 0,82→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,49 1,00Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 1706,83 3045,55→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 1154,23 1082,70

43

→ LDV diesel k vehicles 233,00 1252,94→ HDV diesel k vehicles 102,99 180,35→ two-wheelers k vehicles 134,40 213,59→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 82,20 315,96ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 31,35 41,06→ solids TWhe 5,54 2,20→ oil TWhe 0,74 0,05→ gas TWhe 2,63 2,54→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,08 1,69→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 4,64 8,14→ nuclear TWhe 17,73 26,44→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 29,00 30,80AGRICULTURE


3.25 Slovenia

SLOVENIA Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 2,00 2,15Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,75 2,40Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 7,72 11,64KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 28,63 43,12Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 14,33 20,01Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 24,82 37,50→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 0,75 0,72→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 1,82 2,13→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 0,80 0,94→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 5,10 7,41→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 16,34 26,31ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 306,50 321,16→ power and heat plants PJ 78,24 60,96→ transformation PJ 9,26 17,39→ residential combustion PJ 69,84 81,53→ industrial combustion PJ 67,46 59,55→ road vehicles PJ 62,10 85,25→ non-road machinery PJ 6,61 8,11→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 13,00 8,36Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 306,50 321,16→ solids PJ 63,54 29,33→ oil PJ 108,78 111,59→ gas PJ 38,89 51,89→ renewables PJ 32,94 69,33→ nuclear PJ 63,55 62,49→ electricity and heat PJ -1,20 -3,48→ other PJ 0,00 0,00RES Share in primary energy consumption % 10,75 21,59Import dependency (PRIMES) % 52,30 53,50TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 18,51 39,89→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 10,91 8,16→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 4,54 27,02→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 2,79 4,02→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,08 0,16→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 0,18 0,53Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 1013,78 1397,50

44

→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 751,49 493,66→ LDV diesel k vehicles 217,73 812,73→ HDV diesel k vehicles 28,03 55,71→ two-wheelers k vehicles 14,02 23,97→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 2,52 11,43ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 15,12 18,30→ solids TWhe 5,27 3,59→ oil TWhe 0,04 0,00→ gas TWhe 0,34 2,54→ biomass-waste TWhe 0,12 0,65→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 3,46 5,73→ nuclear TWhe 5,88 5,79→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 32,90 44,90AGRICULTURE


3.26 Spain

SPAIN Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 43,04 49,96Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,80 2,60Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 11,59 16,65KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 911,97 1435,48Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 21,19 28,73Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 827,88 1312,63→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 21,53 24,83→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 115,04 142,37→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 20,20 26,36→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 128,29 166,06→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 543,49 953,02ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 6011,96 6008,95→ power and heat plants PJ 1118,65 881,26→ transformation PJ 433,09 498,92→ residential combustion PJ 1031,39 1304,02→ industrial combustion PJ 1262,13 1191,40→ road vehicles PJ 1320,51 1317,31→ non-road machinery PJ 496,61 480,80→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 349,57 335,25Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 6011,96 6008,95→ solids PJ 831,17 393,06→ oil PJ 2954,41 2516,90→ gas PJ 1258,18 1394,27→ renewables PJ 357,65 1087,70→ nuclear PJ 621,42 623,26→ electricity and heat PJ -10,90 -6,52→ other PJ 0,03 0,28RES Share in primary energy consumption % 5,95 18,10Import dependency (PRIMES) % 81,50 72,80TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 407,85 554,94→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 118,55 67,15→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 227,83 417,70→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 46,76 55,59→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 10,88 6,80→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 3,83 7,70

45

Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 35337,74 33900,73→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 12315,10 5913,60→ LDV diesel k vehicles 15016,36 21213,62→ HDV diesel k vehicles 592,03 742,45→ two-wheelers k vehicles 7360,51 5385,94→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 53,73 645,11ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 288,92 358,55→ solids TWhe 84,05 33,98→ oil TWhe 24,42 2,17→ gas TWhe 80,73 91,74→ biomass-waste TWhe 3,10 10,37→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 39,09 162,55→ nuclear TWhe 57,54 57,73→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 46,70 46,50AGRICULTURE


3.27 Sweden

SWEDEN Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 9,01 10,58Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,10 2,10Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 15,52 22,30KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 298,99 466,87Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 33,18 44,14Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 260,95 407,46→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 4,13 5,03→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 14,37 20,47→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 10,02 12,23→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 46,80 63,39→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 186,27 306,34ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 2216,09 2314,74→ power and heat plants PJ 521,07 591,04→ transformation PJ 166,43 182,47→ residential combustion PJ 507,63 527,06→ industrial combustion PJ 528,04 588,38→ road vehicles PJ 304,46 256,53→ non-road machinery PJ 92,47 85,82→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 96,00 83,45Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 2216,09 2314,74→ solids PJ 91,44 102,64→ oil PJ 672,99 490,74→ gas PJ 55,68 76,39→ renewables PJ 640,92 915,55→ nuclear PJ 781,67 812,47→ electricity and heat PJ -26,61 -83,10→ other PJ 0,00 0,05RES Share in primary energy consumption % 28,92 39,55Import dependency (PRIMES) % 37,70 30,10TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 82,13 118,37→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 57,80 32,43→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 13,27 72,15→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 8,92 9,90→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 0,83 1,19

46

→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 1,31 2,71Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 4786,18 5665,31→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 4056,22 1970,59→ LDV diesel k vehicles 343,19 2900,44→ HDV diesel k vehicles 88,62 67,04→ two-wheelers k vehicles 283,18 572,43→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 14,96 154,82ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 158,37 180,91→ solids TWhe 1,17 1,21→ oil TWhe 1,38 0,11→ gas TWhe 1,34 1,72→ biomass-waste TWhe 8,36 20,89→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 73,74 83,16→ nuclear TWhe 72,38 73,83→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 158,37 180,91AGRICULTURE


3.28 United Kingdom

UNITED KINGDOM Unit 2005 2030KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation Million 60,04 70,21Average household size (PRIMES) persons/household 2,40 2,20Household expenditure (PRIMES) in kEuro' 05/capita 18,36 23,84KEY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSGross Domestic Product (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 1825,28 2681,35Gross Domestic Product per capita (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05/capita 30,40 38,19Sectoral Value Added (in Market Exchange Rates) in 000 Meuro '05 1628,98 2391,91→ agriculture, fishing, forestry in 000 Meuro '05 10,61 10,24→ construction in 000 Meuro '05 124,07 162,29→ energy in 000 Meuro '05 78,76 72,33→ industry in 000 Meuro '05 179,63 217,71→ tertiary (transport, trade and other services) in 000 Meuro '05 1237,60 1929,33ENERGY BALANCEPrimary energy consumption by sector PJ 9682,63 7317,99→ power and heat plants PJ 1961,81 690,87→ transformation PJ 790,33 666,51→ residential combustion PJ 2634,28 2283,79→ industrial combustion PJ 1369,46 1147,47→ road vehicles PJ 1657,60 1346,43→ non-road machinery PJ 800,02 791,15→ non-energy use of fuels PJ 469,15 391,78Primary energy consumption by fuel PJ 9682,63 7317,99→ solids PJ 1455,89 231,82→ oil PJ 3541,35 2758,40→ gas PJ 3583,44 2779,10→ renewables PJ 190,43 1157,33→ nuclear PJ 881,47 354,30→ electricity and heat PJ 30,01 36,73→ other PJ 0,04 0,31RES Share in primary energy consumption % 1,97 15,81Import dependency (PRIMES) % 13,50 52,60TRANSPORT SECTORRoad - vehicle mileage G vehicle-km/yr 533,25 715,72→ LDV gasoline G vehicle-km/yr 327,43 222,20→ LDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 164,75 424,21→ HDV diesel G vehicle-km/yr 30,10 50,73

47

→ two-wheelers G vehicle-km/yr 6,08 4,22→ other (gas - electric) G vehicle-km/yr 4,88 14,35Road - number of vehicles k vehicles 31439,92 41655,65→ LDV gasoline k vehicles 21394,62 16136,99→ LDV diesel k vehicles 8283,04 23115,21→ HDV diesel k vehicles 532,21 446,40→ two-wheelers k vehicles 1135,25 1063,71→ other (gas - electric) k vehicles 94,81 893,34ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONGross Electricity Generation by source (PRIMES) TWhe 395,43 373,96→ solids TWhe 134,64 9,63→ oil TWhe 5,34 2,25→ gas TWhe 154,34 139,00→ biomass-waste TWhe 11,66 17,99→ renewable (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) TWhe 7,83 170,16→ nuclear TWhe 81,62 34,92→ other TWhe 0,00 0,00Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (PRIMES) % 43,60 50,00AGRICULTURE


4. GAINS details per MS

All detailed data of the TSAP16 scenarios can be retrieved from the GAINS-online model (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains/EUN/index.login?logout=1). Under scenario group 'TSAP Report16' scenarios 'WPE_2014_CLE', 'WPE_2014_MTFR' and 'WPE_2014_OPT' can be examined in an interactive mode. To further accommodate the request of article 14(3) and to ensure a separate and permanent record of the relevant GAINS details, all relevant GAINS input data and results for the CLE, OPT and MFTR TSAP16 scenarios were exported and stored in excel format. The excel file contains two worksheets:

an 'export worksheet' containing all relevant GAINS details per MS and per pollutant for the CLE, OPT and MFTR TSAP 16 scenarios (for base year 2005 and target year 2030); data on activities, emission factors (unabated / abated), removal efficiencies and shares of reduction technologies applied, resulting emissions and costs are displayed by sector/activity (fuel) combinations;

a 'NFR worksheet' showing the exported GAINS data aggregated at NFR sector level (using NFR2014 version).

The worksheets are designed in a way to facilitate access and use of the presented data. The 'NFR worksheet' includes filters to select pollutant, country and NFR sector. It will inter alia allow easy comparison with national projections reported under the new NEC Directive 2016/2284.

The costs of multi pollution technologies are linked to one pollutant in the two worksheets.

48

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pdf/TSAP%2016%20Underlying%20assumptions%20-%20GAINS%20details.xlsx

http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains/EUN/index.login?logout=1

5. Complementary information

Several TSAP reports prepared by IIASA provide complementary information on the background and preparation for the TSAP16 scenarios and the GAINS analytical framework employed for the development of these scenarios.

(1) TSAP Report #11

'The Final Policy Scenarios of the EU Clean Air Policy Package, IIASA, February 2014', http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_11-finalv1-1a.pdf

This report documents the key scenarios that have led to the proposal of the European Commission on the Clean Air Policy Package. It outlines the most relevant analyses (using the GAINS Integrated Assessment Modelling suite) that flowed into the Impact Assessment, as well as key scenarios that emerged during negotiations with the Commission. The report provides a summary of the methodology applied, a description of the baseline projections on energy use and agricultural activities (PRIMES 2013, CAPRI), baseline emissions, scope for further reductions, resulting improvements on air quality and ecosystems and cost-effective policy scenarios that underpinned the Commission's proposal for a new NEC Directive (December 2013). For the Cost-benefit analysis corresponding to this TSAP report #11, see:

'CBA for the Clean Air Policy Package, Cost-benefit Analysis of Final Policy Scenarios for the EU Clean Air Package, corresponding to IIASA TSAP Report #11, EMRC, March 2014', http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_CBA_corresponding_to_IIASA11_v2.pdf

(2) TSAP Report #13

'Summary of the Bilateral Consultations with National Experts on the GAINS Input Data, IIASA, September 2014',http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_13UPD-v13.pdf

This report provides a summary of the additional bilateral consultations with MS after the Council started its deliberations in January 2014 on the proposal for a new NEC Directive. Focus during this additional round of bilateral consultations was on the perceived discrepancies between the latest national emission inventories for 2005 and the 2005 data used for the GAINS cost-effectiveness analysis. Minutes of the bilateral meetings with the MS are included in the report.

(3) TSAP Report #14

'Updates to the GAINS Model Databases after the Bilateral Consultations with National Experts in 2014, IIASA, September 2014',http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_14-v1-1.pdf

49

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_14-v1-1.pdf

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_13UPD-v13.pdf

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_13UPD-v13.pdf

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_CBA_corresponding_to_IIASA11_v2.pdf

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_CBA_corresponding_to_IIASA11_v2.pdf

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_11-finalv1-1a.pdf

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_11-finalv1-1a.pdf

This report presents the outcomes of the additional bilateral consultations with MS held in 2014 on the representation of national emission inventories for 2005 in the GAINS model, the implications on the current legislation baseline and MTFR projections of future emissions in 2030, and the scope for further measures and the implications on the technical feasibility of the emission reduction commitments as proposed by the Commission.

(4) TSAP Reports #16A and 16B

'Adjusted historic emission data, projections, and optimized emission reduction targets for 2030 - A comparison with COM data 2013, Part A: Results for EU28, IIASA, January 2015', http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_16a.pdf

'Adjusted historic emission data, projections, and optimized emission reduction targets for 2030 - A comparison with COM data 2013, Part B: Results for Member States, IIASA, January 2015',http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_16b.pdf

The TSAP reports #16 present the updated set of emission reduction commitments (TSAP16 scenarios) that would meet the health and environmental targets proposed by the European Commission in the Clean Air Policy Package in a cost effective way (same relative reduction in‐ premature mortality of 52% by 2030 compared to 2005, with the same gap closure of 67%), based on the revised historic emissions estimates and the consequently adapted projections (see TSAP reports #13 and 14).

50

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_16b.pdf

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP_16a.pdf

6. GAINS acronyms

ABBREVIATION DESCRIPTION UNIT DATA_TYPEABRASION Road abrasion activity

ADH Adhesives activity

BC1 Brown coal/lignite grade 1 activity

BC2 Brown coal/lignite grade 2 (also peat) activity

BIOG Biogas activity

BRAKE Brake wear activity

BS Buffalos activity

CHCOA Charcoal activity

CM Camels activity

CRU Crude oil activity

CTG Coating activity

DC Derived coal (coke, briquettes) activity

DL Dairy cows - liquid systems activity

DS Dairy cows - solid systems activity

EMI Emissions of NMVOC activity

ENW Enamelled wire activity

EP Ethylene and Propylene activity

EPS Expandable polystyrene beads consumption activity

FU Fur animals activity

FWD Fuelwood activity

GAS Natural gas (incl. other gases) activity

GSL Gasoline activity

H2 Hydrogen activity

HC1 Hard coal, grade 1 activity



HF Heavy fuel oil activity

HO Horses activity

INK Printing inks activity

LFL Leaded gasoline activity

LH Laying hens activity

LPG Liquefied petroleum gas activity

MD Diesel activity

NOF No fuel use activity

OL Other cattle - liquid systems activity

OP Other poultry activity

OS Other cattle - solid systems activity

OS1 Biomass fuels activity

OS2 Other biomass and waste fuels activity

PG Paint and glue produced activity

PL Pigs - liquid systems activity

PNT Paint use activity

POP Population activity

PS Pigs - solid systems activity

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PVC PVC produced by suspension process activity

REN Renewable energy other than biomass activity

RUB Synthetic rubber activity

SC Coated surface activity

SD Seeds activity

SH Sheep and goats activity

SHO Shoes activity

SLV Solvent use activity

TEX Textiles (clothing) activity

TIM Wood treated activity

TYR Tyres activity

TYRE Tyre wear activity

VEH Vehicles activity

AGR_ARABLE Ploughing, tilling, harvesting M ha sectorAGR_BEEF Other cattle M animals sectorAGR_COWS Dairy cattle M animals sectorAGR_OTANI Other livestock (sheep, horses) M animals sectorAGR_PIG Pigs M animals sectorAGR_POULT Poultry M animals sectorAUTO_P Vehicles manufacturing kveh sectorAUTO_P_NEW Vehicles manufacturing (new plants) kveh sectorAU_LGP Large-scale gold production t Au/year sectorCOIL Coil coating mln m2 sectorCONSTRUCT Construction activities M m2 sectorCON_COMB Transformation - combustion PJ sectorCON_COMB1 Fuel conversion (grate firingr) PJ sectorABBREVIATION DESCRIPTION UNIT DATA_TYPE

CON_COMB2 Fuel conversion (fluidized bed boiler) PJ sectorCON_COMB3 Fuel conversion (pulverized bed boiler) PJ sectorCON_LOSS Transformation - losses PJ sectorCOWS_3000_MILK Milk yield over 3000 kg/animal treshold kt milk sectorDECO_P Decorative paints kt sectorDEGR Degreasing kt SLV sectorDEGR_NEW Degreasing (new installations) kt SLV sectorDOM Residential-commercial PJ sectorDOM_FPLACE Fireplaces PJ sectorDOM_MB_A Medium boilers (<50MW) - automatic PJ sectorDOM_MB_M Medium boilers (<1MW) - manual PJ sectorDOM_OS Domestic use of solvents (other than paint) M people sectorDOM_SHB_A Single house boilers (<50 kW) - automatic PJ sectorDOM_SHB_M Single house boilers (<50 kW) - manual PJ sectorDOM_STOVE_H Heating stoves PJ sectorDRY Dry cleaning kt TEX sectorDRY_NEW Dry cleaning (new installations) kt TEX sectorD_GASST Gasoline distribution - service stations PJ sectorD_REFDEP Gasoline storage & distribution (excl. gasoline stations) PJ sectorD_REFDEP_S Gasoline storage & distribution (excl. transport sector) PJ sectorEXD_GAS Production & distribution of natural gas kt VOC sectorEXD_GAS_NEW Production & distribution of natural gas - new mains kt VOC sectorEXD_LQ Extraction of oil (incl delivery to terminals) kt VOC sectorEXD_LQ_NEW Extraction of oil (incl delivery to terminals; with recovery) kt VOC sectorFATOIL Fat and oil extraction (seeds) kt sectorFCON_OTHN Mineral N fertilizers use (excl. urea) kt N sectorFCON_UREA Urea application (incl. ABC) kt N sectorFERTPRO Mineral N fertilizer production kt N sectorFOOD Food and drink industry M people sectorGLUE_INH Industrial application of adhesives (high performance) kt sectorGLUE_INT Industrial application of adhesives (traditional) kt sectorIND_OS Other industrial use of solvents kt VOC sectorIND_OTH Other industrial sources kt VOC sectorIND_P_CNT Industrial paint use (continuous processes) kt sectorIND_P_OT Industrial paint use (other) kt sectorIND_P_PL Industrial paint use (plastic parts) kt sectorINORG Inorganic chemical industry kt VOC sectorIN_BO_CHEM Chemical industry (boilers) PJ sectorIN_BO_CON Transformation sector (boilers) PJ sectorIN_BO_OTH Other industry (boilers; liquid and gaseous fuels) PJ sectorIN_BO_OTH_L Other industry (large coal boilers; > 50 MWth ) PJ sector

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IN_BO_OTH_S Other industry (small coal boilers; < 50 MWth ) PJ sectorIN_BO_PAP Paper & pulp (boilers) PJ sectorIN_OC Industrial furnaces PJ sectorIN_OC3 Industry: Other combustion, pulverized PJ sectorIO_NH3_EMISS Other industrial NH3 emissions kt NH3 sectorLEAD_GASOL Leaded gasoline PJ sectorLEATHER Leather coating kt sectorMINE_BC Brown coal mining Mt sectorMINE_HC Hard coal mining Mt sectorMINE_OTH Mining: Bauxite, copper, iron ore, zinc ore, manganese ore, other Mt sectorNONEN Nonenergy use of fuels PJ sectorORG_STORE Organic chemical industry - storage kt VOC sectorOTHER_HG Other Hg emissions t Hg/year sectorOTHER_NOX Other NOx emissions not included separately in GAINS and statistical differences kt NOx sectorOTHER_PM Other PM emissions not included separately in GAINS and statistical differences kt PM (TSP) sectorOTHER_SO2 Other SO2 emissions not included separately in GAINS and statistical differences kt SO2 sectorOTH_NH3_EMISS Other NH3 emissions kt NH3 sectorOTH_ORG_PR Organic chemical industry - downstream units kt VOC sectorPHARMA Pharmaceutical industry kt SLV sectorPIS Products incorporating solvents kt PG sectorPLSTYR_PR Polystyrene processing kt sectorPP_ENG Diesel generator sets PJ sector

PP_ENG Diesel generator sets thousand of engines sector

PP_EX_L Power & district heat plants - existing coal (>50 MWth) PJ sectorPP_EX_OTH Power & district heat plants - existing (excl. coal) PJ sectorPP_EX_S Power & district heat plants - existing coal (<50 MWth) PJ sectorPP_IGCC Power & district heat plants - IGCC PJ sectorPP_IGCC_CCS Power & district heat plants - IGCC with CCS PJ sectorPP_MOD Modern power plants (coal: ultra & supercritical; gas: CCGT) PJ sectorPP_MOD_CCS Modern power plants (coal: ultra & supercritical; gas: CCGT) with CCS PJ sectorPP_NEW Power & district heat plants - new (excl. coal) PJ sectorPP_NEW_L Power & district heat plants - new coal (>50 MWth) PJ sectorABBREVIATION DESCRIPTION UNIT DATA_TYPE

PP_TOTAL Power & district heat plants (total); used for reporting total fossil fuels inputs, inputs of non-fossil fuels as well as total electricity and heat generation PJ sector

PRT_OFFS Offset printing (existing) kt INK sectorPRT_OFFS_NEW Offset printing (new) kt INK sectorPRT_PACK Flexography & rotogravure - packaging kt INK sectorPRT_PACK_NEW Flexography & rotogravure - packaging (new inst.) kt INK sectorPRT_PUB Rotogravure in publication (existing) kt INK sectorPRT_PUB_NEW Rotogravure in publication (new) kt INK sectorPRT_SCR Screen printing (existing) kt INK sectorPRT_SCR_NEW Screen printing (new) kt INK sectorPR_ALPRIM Aluminum production - primary Mt sectorPR_ALSEC Aluminum production - secondary Mt sectorPR_BAOX Basic oxygen furnace Mt sectorPR_BRICK Brick production Mt sectorPR_BRIQ Briquettes production Mt sectorPR_CAST Cast iron (grey iron foundries) Mt sectorPR_CAST_F Cast iron (grey iron foundries) (fugitive) Mt sectorPR_CBLACK Carbon black production Mt sectorPR_CEM Cement production Mt sectorPR_COKE Coke oven Mt sectorPR_CSP Chlorine and caustic soda production by electrolysis using mercury cells Mt Cl2/year sectorPR_EARC Electric arc furnace Mt sectorPR_FERT Fertilizer production Mt sectorPR_GLASS Glass production (flat, blown, container glass) Mt sectorPR_LIME Lime production Mt sectorPR_NIAC Nitric acid Mt sectorPR_OTHER Production of glass fiber, gypsum, PVC, other Mt sectorPR_OT_NFME Non-ferrous metals prod. (excl aluminum) Mt sectorPR_PELL Agglomeration plant - pellets Mt sectorPR_PIGI Pig iron, blast furnace Mt sectorPR_PIGI_F Pig iron, blast furnace (fugitive) Mt sectorPR_PULP Paper pulp mills Mt sectorPR_REF Petroleum refineries Mt sectorPR_SINT Agglomeration plant - sinter Mt sectorPR_SINT_F Agglomeration plant - sinter (fugitive) Mt sectorPR_SMIND_F Small industrial and business facilities - fugitive M people sectorPR_SUAC Sulfuric acid Mt sectorPVC_PR Polyvinylchloride produceduction by suspension process kt sectorRES_BBQ Meat frying, food preparation, BBQ M people sectorRES_CIGAR Cigarette smoking M people sectorRES_CREM Share of population cremated annualy M people sector

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RES_FIREW Fireworks M people sectorSHOE Manufacturing of shoes mln pairs sectorSTCRACK_PR Steam cracking (ethylene & propylene production) kt sectorSTH_AGR Storage & handling of agricultural crops Mt sectorSTH_COAL Storage & handling of coal Mt sectorSTH_FEORE Storage & handling of iron ore Mt sectorSTH_NPK Storage & handling of N,P,K fertilizers Mt sectorSTH_OTH_IN Storage & handling of other industrial bulk products Mt sectorSYNTH_RUB Synthetic rubber production kt sectorTRA_OTS_L Coastal shipping, large vessels PJ sectorTRA_OTS_M Coastal shipping, medium vessels PJ sectorTRA_OT_AGR Agriculture PJ sectorTRA_OT_AIR Aviation - LTO PJ sectorTRA_OT_CNS Construction machinery PJ sectorTRA_OT_EV Non-road gasoline engines - evaporative PJ sectorTRA_OT_INW Inland waterways PJ sectorTRA_OT_LB Other non-road machinery PJ sectorTRA_OT_LD2 2-stroke engines (non-road) PJ sectorTRA_OT_RAI Railways PJ sectorTRA_RD_HDB Buses PJ sectorTRA_RD_HDT Heavy duty vehicles PJ sectorTRA_RD_LD2 Mopeds PJ sectorTRA_RD_LD4C Cars PJ sectorTRA_RD_LD4C_EV Cars - evaporative PJ sectorTRA_RD_LD4T Light duty vehicles PJ sectorTRA_RD_LD4T_EV Light duty vehicles - evaporative PJ sectorTRA_RD_M4 Motorcycles PJ sectorTYRES Tyre production kt sectorVEHR_P Vehicle refinishing kt sectorVEHR_P_NEW Vehicle refinishing (new installations) kt sectorVEHTR (De)Waxing and underbody treatment of vehicles M people sectorWASTE_AGR Agricultural waste burning Mt sectorWASTE_FLR Flaring in gas & oil industry PJ sectorABBREVIATION DESCRIPTION UNIT DATA_TYPE

WASTE_RES Trash burning Mt sectorWASTE_VOC Waste treatment and disposal kt VOC sectorWIRE Winding wire coating kt sectorWOOD Wood preservation (excl. creosote) mln m3 sectorWOOD_CR Wood preservation (creosote) mln m3 sectorWOOD_P Wood coating mln m2 sectorWT_NH3_EMISS Waste treatment and disposal kt NH3 sector

ACA Activated carbon adsorption technology

AGR1 A generic option for other animals - good practice technology

ALTER Low-till farming, alternative cereal harvesting technology

A_INC Adsorption, incineration technology

BAN Ban on open burning technology

BASE Simulation of changes in paint formulation and application patterns between 1990 and 2000 technology

BEMT Basic emissions management techniques technology

BEMT+ACA Basic emissions management techniques and carbon adsorption technology

BF Air scrubber technology

BF_CS Combination of BF_CS technology

BF_CS_LNA Combination of BF_CS_LNA technology

BF_LNA Combination of BF_LNA technology

BF_LNA_high Combination of BF_LNA_high technology

BF_LNA_low Combination of BF_LNA_low technology

BIO Bioflitration technology

CAGEUI Stage 1 technology

CAGEUII Stage 2 technology

CAGEUIII Stage 3A technology

CAGEUIV Stage 3B technology

CAGEUV Stage 4 technology

CAGEUVI Stage 5 technology

CCCM Conventional closed circuit machine technology

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CCCM+ACA Combination of the above options technology

CLSD_A3 Closed (sealed) degreaser: use of A3 solvents technology

CLSD_A3+ACA Combination of the above options technology

CLSD_CL Closed (sealed) degreaser: use of chlorinated solvents technology

CLSD_HF Closed (sealed) degreaser: use of fluoro (HFC, HFE) solvents technology

CLSD_HF+ACA Combination of the above options technology

COLD Cold cleaner technology

CSBP Use of current standard solvent based paints (60% solvent content) and application efficiency 65% technology

CSBP+INC Combination of the above options technology

CS_LNA Combination of CS_LNA technology

CS_high Covered outdoor storage of manure; high efficiency technology

CS_low Covered outdoor storage of manure; low efficiency technology

CYC Cyclone technology

DGCCOM Comb. modification on gas use in commercial sector technology

DGCCR Combustion modification on gas use in commercial and residential sectors technology

DHFCM Combustion modification on heavy fuel oil use in commercial sector technology

DMDCCO Combustion modification on gasoil use in commercial sector technology

DMDCCR Combustion modification on gasoil use in commercial and residential sectors technology

EMU Emulsions, water-based dispersion paints technology

ENC+ACA Enclosure and adsorption technology

ENC+INC Enclosure and incineration technology

ESP1 Electrostatic precipitator: 1 field technology

ESP2 Electrostatic precipitator: 2 fields technology

FEED_MOD Feed modification (all livestock) technology

FF Fabric filters technology

FILTER Filters in households (kitchen) technology

FLR_GP Good practice in oil and gas industry - flaring technology

FP_IMP Improved fireplace technology

FP_NEW New fireplace technology

FSED Simulation of possible developments beyond Product Directive technology

F_IMP Improved ignition systems on flares technology

GHDOM Good housekeeping: domestic oil boilers technology

GHIND Good housekeeping: industrial oil boilers technology

HAMP Improved application (HVLP), gunwash, SMP technology

HAMP+SUB1 Primary measures and 25% of high solids and water based paints technology

HAMP+SUB2 Primary measures and 40% high solids, 60% water based paints technology

HAY_SIL Hay-silage for cattle technology

HCM Hydrocarbon machine technology

HDEUI EURO I technology

HDEUII EURO II technology

HDEUIII EURO III technology

HDEUIV EURO IV technology

HDEUV EURO V technology

HDEUVI EURO VI technology

ABBREVIATION DESCRIPTION UNIT DATA_TYPEHDSEI Stage 1 technology

HDSEII Stage 2 technology

HDSEIII Stage 3 technology

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HED High efficiency deduster technology

HF2MD Fuel switching for SO2 for PP_ENG sectors technology

HOTM Hot melts or UV cross-linking acrylates or electron beam curing systems (solids content 100%) technology

HSE Good housekeeping technology

HSE+BISUB Good houseking in steel industry and switch to emulsion bitumen technology

HSS High solids coating systems (20% solvent content), application process with an efficiency of 35% technology

HSS+PRM High solids coating systems (20% solvent content), application process with an efficiency of 75% technology

IFC Internal floating covers or secondary seals technology

IFC+ST_IAD IFC and Stage IA (double stage) controls technology

IFC+ST_IAS IFC and Stage IA (single stage) controls technology

IFC+VRU_I Internal floating covers/sec.seals,vapour recovery (single stage) technology

IFC+VRU_II Internal floating covers/sec.seals,vapour recovery (double stage) technology

INC Incineration technology

IN_CYC Cyclone technology

IN_ESP1 Electrostatic precipitator: 1 field technology

IN_ESP2 Electrostatic precipitator: 2 fields technology

IN_HED High efficiency deduster technology

IOGCM Combustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnaces technology

IOGCSC Combustion modification and selective catalytic reduction on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnaces technology

IOGCSN Combustion modification and selective non-catalytic reduction on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnaces technology

ISBP Use of improved solvent based paints (55%), application efficiency as above technology

ISBP+INC Combination of the above options technology

ISFCM Combustion modification on solid fuels fired industrial boilers and furnaces technology

ISFCSC Combustion modification and selective catalytic reduction on solid fuels fired industrial boilers and furnaces technology

ISFCSN Combustion modification and selective non-catalytic reduction on solid fuels fired industrial boilers and furnaces technology

IWFGD Industry - wet flue gases desulphurisation technology

I_LAND Improved Landfills technology

LDAR_I Leak detection and repair program, stage I technology

LDAR_I+COWS Combination of the above options technology

LDAR_II Leak detection and repair program, stage II technology

LDAR_II+COWS Combination of the above options technology

LDAR_III Leak detection and repair program, stage III technology

LDAR_IV Leak detection and repair program, stage IV technology

LFEUI EURO 1 technology

LFEUII EURO 2 technology

LFEUIII EURO 3 technology

LFEUIV EURO 4 technology

LFEUV EURO 5 technology

LFEUVI EURO 6 technology

LINJ In-furnace control - limestone injection technology

LNA Low ammonia application; mean efficiency technology

LNA_high Low ammonia application; high efficiency technology

LNA_low Low ammonia application; low efficiency technology

LNF Low nitrogen feed technology

LNF_BF Combination of LNF_BF technology

LNF_BF_CS Combination of LNF_BF_CS technology

LNF_BF_CS_LNA Combination of LNF_BF_CS_LNA technology

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LNF_BF_LNA Combination of LNF_BF_LNA technology

LNF_BF_LNA_high Combination of LNF_BF_LNA_high technology

LNF_BF_LNA_low Combination of LNF_BF_LNA_low technology

LNF_CS Combination of LNF_CS technology

LNF_CS_LNA Combination of LNF_CS_LNA technology

LNF_LNA Combination of LNF_LNA technology

LNF_LNA_high Combination of LNF_LNA_high technology

LNF_LNA_low Combination of LNF_LNA_low technology

LNF_SA Combination of LNF_SA technology

LNF_SA_LNA Combination of LNF_SA_LNA technology

LSCK Low sulphur coke (0.6 %S) technology

LSCO Low sulphur coal (0.6 %S) technology

LSGSL Low sulphur gasoline (0.001 %S) technology

LSHF Low sulphur fuel oil (0.6 %S) technology

LSI+ENC Low solvent inks and enclosure technology

LSI+ENC+ACA Low solvent inks, enclosure and adsorption technology

LSI+ENC+INC Low solvent inks, enclosure and incineration technology

LSMD1 Low sulphur diesel oil - stage 1 (0.2 % S) technology

ABBREVIATION DESCRIPTION UNIT DATA_TYPELSMD2 Low sulphur diesel oil - stage 2 (0.045 % S) technology

LSMD3 Low sulphur diesel oil - stage 3 (0.001 % S) technology

LSS+PRM Low solids systems (80% solvent content) and application process with an efficiency of 75% (electrostatic, roller coating, curtain coating, dipping) technology

LSS+PRM+INC Combination of the above options technology

LSWBI Low solvent or water based inks technology

LSWBI+ENC+ACA Low solvent/water based inks, enclosure and adsorption technology

LSWBI+ENC+INC Low solvent/water based inks, enclosure and incineration technology

LSWBI+ENC+INC-A Low solvent/water based inks and incineration/adsorption technology

MB_CYC Cyclone technology

MB_HED High efficiency deduster technology

MB_HED_F High efficiency deduster technology

MB_PELL Pellet boiler technology

MDEUI EURO 1 technology

MDEUII EURO 2 technology

MDEUIII EURO 3 technology

MDEUIV EURO 4 technology

MDEUV EURO 5 technology

MDEUVI EURO 6 technology

MDEUVIp EURO 6a/b technology

MINE_GP Good practice in mining industry technology

MMO2I Stage 1 (2-stroke) technology

MMO2II Stage 2 (2-stroke) technology

MMO2III Stage 3 (2-stroke) technology

MOT4I Stage 1 (4-stroke) technology

MOT4II Stage 2 (4-stroke) technology

MOT4III Stage 3 (4-stroke) technology

MSS Medium solids systems (55% solvent content), conventional application process with an efficiency of 35% technology

MSS+INC Combination of the above options technology

MSS+PRM Medium solids systems (55% solvent content), application process with an efficiency of 75% technology

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M_INC Modernized plant (lower fugitives) and improved thermal oxidation technology

NAGR Agrochemicals - new products technology

NCCM New generation closed circuit machine technology

NOC No control technology

NPR New process technology

OPT VIS plus optimisation of the process technology

OPTPR Process optimization technology

PB+REC 6% Pentane expandable beads (85%) and recycled EPS waste (15%) technology

PB+REC+INC Combination of the above options technology

PBCCM Combustion modification on existing brown coal power plants technology

PBCCSC Combustion modification and selective catalytic reduction on existing brown coal power plants technology

PBCSCR Selective catalytic reduction on new brown coal power plants technology

PHCCM Combustion modification on existing hard coal power plants technology

PHCCSC Combustion modification and selective catalytic reduction on existing hard coal power plants technology

PHCSCR Selective catalytic reduction on new hard coal power plants technology

PMOF Primary measures in offset printing, incl. enclosure technology

PMOF+INC Primary measures (offset) and incineration technology

PMOF+SF Primary measures (offset) and solvent free inks technology

PMOF+SF-INC Primary measures (offset), solvent free inks, incineration technology

PM_INC Burning of Poultry Manure technology

POGCM Combustion modification on existing oil and gas power plants technology

POGCSC Combustion modification and selective catalytic reduction on existing oil and gas power plants technology

POGSCR Selective catalytic reduction on new oil and gas power plants technology

POWDER Powder coating system (solvent free) technology

PRF_GP1 Good practice: ind.process - stage 1 (fugitive) technology

PRF_GP2 Good practice: ind.process - stage 2 (fugitive) technology

PRM Process modification technology

PRM+NAGR Primary and new agrochemical products technology

PRM+SUB Process modification and substitution technology

PRM+SUB+A_INC Process modification, substitution, adsorption, incineration technology

PRM1+LEOP Primary measures paskage one and low level employment of end-of-pipe measures (incl. thermal incineration, condensation, and other) technology

PRM2+HEOP Primary measures paskage two and high level employment of end-of-pipe measures (incl. thermal incineration, carbon adsorption, condensation, and other) technology

PRMPLUS Primary (lower solvent content of enamel and reduced fugitive emissions) and secondary measures (increased efficiency of the oven) technology

PRNOX1 Stage 1 - Process NOx control technology



PRWFGD Wet flue gases desulphurisation (retrofitted) technology

PR_CYC Cyclone technology

ABBREVIATION DESCRIPTION UNIT DATA_TYPEPR_ESP1 Electrostatic precipitator: 1 field technology

PR_ESP2 Electrostatic precipitator: 2 fields technology

PR_HED High efficiency deduster technology

PR_HED_SN High efficiency deduster with sulphor and nox control - industrial processes technology

PR_WSCRB Wet scrubber technology

PSFCSN Selective non-catalytic reduction on other biomass and waste fuels for existing powerplants technology

PSFSNC Selective non-catalytic reduction on other biomass and waste fuels for new powerplants technology

PWFGD Wet flue gases desulphurisation technology

REF1 Reformulation of products (stage 1 - see BIPRO, 2002 study; researched options) technology

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REF2 Reformulation of products (stage 2 - see BIPRO, 2002 study; feasible but more expensive options) technology

REF3 Reformulation of products (stage 3 - see BIPRO, 2002 study; more work required on real potential, options might be prohibitively expensive) technology

RFGD High efficiency flue gases desulphurisation technology

SA Low emission housing technology

SA_LNA Low emission housing and manure application technology

SED Simulation of changes in paint formulation and application patterns in order to comply with the EU Product Directive technology

SHB_HED High efficiency deduster for single house boiler using coal technology

SHB_IMP_B Biomass single house boiler improved technology

SHB_NEW_B Biomass single house boiler new technology

SHB_NEW_C Coal single house boiler new technology

SHB_PELL Biomass single house boiler - pellets technology

SHB_PLESP Biomass single house boiler - pellets and electrostatic precipitator technology

SHM+ACA Schumacher type desolventiser-toaster-dryer-cooler plus an old hexane recovery section technology

SHM+ACAN Schumacher type desolventiser-toaster-dryer-cooler plus a new hexane recovery section and process optimization technology

SO2PR1 Stage 1 - Process SO2 control technology



SPRAY Spraying water at construction places technology

SPRM Good housekeeping and substitution (60% solvent based and 40% water based adhesives) technology

SPRM+BIO Combination of the above options technology

SPRM+INC Combination of the above options technology

SPRMPLUS As SPRM plus automatic application technology

ST(II+IB) Stage II and IB at service station technology

STH_GP Good practice: storage and handling technology

STLHCM Combustion modification on large vessels using residual oil technology

STLMCM Combustion modification on large vessels using marine diesel fuel technology

STMCM Combustion modification on medium vessels using marine diesel fuel technology

STRIP Combination of STRIP technology

STVNT Stripping and vent gas treatment technology

STVNT+LK STVNT plus leak detection and repair program to reduce fugitive emisisons technology

STVNTOPT STVNT plus optimization of emission treatment technology

STVNTOPT+LK Combination of the above options technology

STV_BRIQ Briquette stove technology

STV_IMP_B Improved stove - biomass technology

STV_IMP_C Improved stove - coal technology

STV_NEW_B New stove - biomass technology

STV_NEW_C New stove - coal technology

STV_PELL Pellet stove technology

STV_PLESP Pellet stove with electrostatic precipitator technology

ST_IAS Stage IA (single stage) at gasoline depots technology

ST_IB Stage IB controls at service stations technology

SUB1_VT Use of 30% solvent based additives and 70% low solvent additives (90% vulcanized rubber and 10% thermoplastic rubber produced) technology

SUB1_VT+INC Combination of the above options technology

SUB_U Urea substition technology

SUB_V Use of 30% solvent based additives and 70% low solvent additives (100% vulcanized rubber produced) technology

SUB_V+INC Combination of the above options technology

TIWEUI Stage 1 technology

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TIWEUII Stage 2 technology

TIWEUIII Stage 3A technology

TIWEUIV Stage 3B technology

TIWEUV Stage 4 technology

TIWEUVI Stage 5 technology

TK_EOF Tunnel Kiln with end of pipe abatement technology

TSBP_IA Use of traditional solvent based paints but improved application efficiency up to 65% technology

UPACA Upgrade of the condensation units or carbon adsorption and solvent recovery technology

VBAL Vapour balancing on tankers and loading facilities technology

VBAL+VF_ALT Vapour balancing and alternatives for venting and flaring technology

VHSS Very high solids systems (5% solvent content), application process with an efficiency of 35% technology

VHSS+PRM Very high solids systems (5% solvent content), application process with an efficiency of 75% technology

ABBREVIATION DESCRIPTION UNIT DATA_TYPEVIS Improved application technique (vacuum impregnation system) technology

VIS+ACA Combination of the above options technology

VRU_I Vapour recovery unit (single stage) technology

VRU_II Vapour recovery unit (double stage) technology

VSBK Vertical Shaft Brick Kiln with basic dust control technology

WBC_L Use of water based coating technology

WBD Water based cleaning process technology

WBI Water based inks technology

WBI+BIO Water based inks and biofiltration (large inst.) technology

WBI+ENC+ACA Water based inks, enclosure and adsorption technology

WBI+ENC+INC Water based inks, enclosure and incineration technology

WBI+ENC+INC-BIO Water based inks, enclosure and incineration or biofltration technology

WBI+INC Water bsaed inks, incineration (for new inst. with enclosure) technology

WBP Use of water based paints (5%): application efficiency as above technology

WCLEAN Water cleaning technology

WPR Use of water based preservatives (conventional application methods) technology

WPR+VIS Combination of the above options technology

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REFERENCES

Capros, Pantelis. 2013. "EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends to 2050 - Reference Scenario 2013." Brussels, Belgium: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy, Directorate-General for Climate Action and Directorate-General for Mobility and Transporthttp://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/trends_2030/doc/trends_to_2050_update_2013.pdf

EC 2014, "Impact Assessment Accompanying the Communication A Policy Framework for Climate and Energy in the Period from 2020 up to 2030." Belgium, Brussels: European Commission (EC)

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ec.europa.eu 16... · Web viewThe new National Emission Ceilings Directive (Directive 2016/2284 on the reduction of national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants) was adopted

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