Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ANDRES Discussion Number 2 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281453 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become
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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ANDRES Discussion Number 2
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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm ANDRES Discussion Number2
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 281453
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015
Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures
colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become
better organized with an increase in banding and a developing
central dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and
TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt
tropical storm.
The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the
south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from
south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific.
This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the
next several days, and should cause Andres to move
west-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidance
spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking
Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble
maintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remains
near the multi-model consensus for now.
Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for
steady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60%
chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The
updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone
will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce