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Policy,
Planning, and Research
WORKING PAPERS
I Macroeconomicdjustment
and Growth
Country Economics
Department
The World Bank
June 1989
WPS 234
A Consistency
Framework
for Macroeconomic
nalysis
William Easterly
Illustrating with data for Colombia and Zimbabwe,
Easterly
presents a consistency
framework useful for checking projec-
tions or constructing
macroeconomic models,
reconciling sepa-
rate
accounts for the government,
monetary system, nonfinan-
cial private sector, balance of
payments, and national accounts.
The Policy, 'lanning, and
Rescarch ormplcx i insbutes 'PR
%'orking aperc
n
disseymnaiche inding,
of
s
ork in progrc,ss ndto
cncouragc
he exchangc f ideas mong1ank staff and all oLhers
nn:crcstcdn decs:pm.cnt sses lhics papers arry hc namcsof
the authors,
cflex only hcir vicws,andshouldhc uscdand citedacc,rdingiK 'Ihef
nd:ngs. nterpretaUos. andconclusions
re he
authorsnson.
Tcy
shouldno bcatxnhutcd
nthc%''ir:d3ank,LsH0ardof l):rcctors,Ls anagemeni.
or antof itsma,ner countnes
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Policy,Planning, nd Research
HN.1 N
i1 14 1m
Macroeconomic
djustment
and
Growth
Consistency is a hobgoblin (to borrow a phrase invaluable in defining the structure of the model.
from Emerson) that macroeconomists
cannot The consistency framework is not
itself a model,
avoid. Macroeconomic
consistency is the
which can be used to do projections. It is a
requirement that budget constraints be observed. generic check on any projection done by an
Budget constraints do not uniquely determine a explicit or implicit behavioial model.
particular economic outcome, but they do allow Easterly's consistency framework for
analysts to rule out many outcomes when
they macroeconomic analysis includes five accounts,
have some notion of "reasonable" behavior. in current prices: government, monetary system
Often this is enough to evaluate whether a
nionfinancial private sector, balance of payments
parLicular adjustment scenario is feasible. What
and national accounts. Easterly presents these at
seems at first to be a reasonable projection may individual accounts, then integrates them
be revealed as highly
unlikely when aiialyzed in through a matrix of income, expenditures,
a full consistency framework.
savings, and accumulated
assets and liabilities.
Even where a fully specified
behavioral Examples
of estimation of the framework
model is desired, the consistency relations are are presented for Colombia and Zimbabwe.
This
paper is a product of the Macroeconomic
Adjustment
and Growth Division,
Country Economics Department. Copies are available free from the World Bank,
1818 H Street
NW,Washington DC 20433. Please contact
Raquel Luz, room Nil-
057,
extension 61760 (39 pages
with tables).
___ __
_
_
m
The PPR Working
Paper Series
disscminates the findings of work undcr
way in the Bank's
Policy. Planning,
and Research
Complex. An
objective of
the
seT;Cs
s to
get thcse findings out quickly,
even
if presentations
are less than
fully polished.
The findins, interpretations,
and conclusions
in these
papers do
not neecssarilyrepresent
official policy
of the Bank.
Produced at the PPR DisseminationCenter
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A Consistency
Framework
for
Macroeconumic
AnLlysis
by
William
Easterly
Table of Contents
Introduction: why do we need
consistency?
1
A hypothetical example
of consistency
problems 2
A consistency framework for macroeconomic analysis 4
1. Individual
accounts 4
2
Matrix presentation
8
Problems
of estimation
12
Country
examples
13
'. Colombia 14
2.
Zimbabwe
18
Conclusion 19
Bibliography
25
Appendix: country
applications
26
Tnis paper
has benefited
from the collaboration
of Klaus
Schmidt-Heb)'el
and Ali Khadr,
the guidance of John Holsen and Vittorio
Corbo, and the
research assistance
of Susan Hume
and Perla Aizenman.
Comments of other
CECMG staff and Bela
Balassa have also been
very useful.
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Introduction:
wh; do
we need consistency?
Is consistency the
hobgoblin f little
inds," as Emerson once
said? Since consistency s often
tedious to enforce,
it is important
o
remember for what purpose it is
required in macroeconomics.
Consistency
s
simply
the requirement
hat budget constraints
e observedfor all
participants n the
economy.
Budget constraints
ppear at
the economy-wide
evel in the form of
four
familiar acroeconomic dentities. The
national accounts identity
tells
us that
tocal income from
domestic roduction(value dded) equals
total
expenditure
n domestic roduction
(total consumption, otal investment, nd
net exports).
This can be rearranged
o give the identity hat total saving
(including oreign
saving) ust equal total
investment. The fiscal identity
equates the excess of public sector
expenditure ver income
ith total public
sector borrowing nd money creation.
The balance of
Payments identity
similarly
quates the excess
of foreign exchange
expenditure ver earnings
with foreign
borrowing nd
reserve changes. The
monetary identity ells us
thaL the increase
in the money supply
corresponds o the
increase in domestic
credit and foreign
reserves. These identities
mply as a residual
the private
sector
budget constraint, ut this is seldom
included xplicitly
n
macroeconomic
nalysis.
A basic consistency
ramework hould require that
all of these
identities
- as well as
the private sector
budget constraintl
-- be
simultaneously
atisfied. If oae
or more of the identities
s left out of
an
1 The private
sector budget
constraint ould be
analogous o the other
identIcies
- that private
income minus expenditure qual private
net
';inancAal sset accumulation.
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economic projection, he implicit alues for the components f the missing
identity
ay take unrealistic
alues. Since the private
sector is often
the
residual, here may be unrealistic rojections or private saving or money
demand. Even if all the identities re included, hey may be satisfied n an
inconsistent
ay. For example, ne estimate of government oreign borrowing
might be used for the balanceof payments hile a different ne might be
used
for the fiscal accounts.
However,
a consistency ramework
s not in itself
a model, such as
could be used to do projections. It is a generic check on any projection one
by an explicitor implicit ehavioral odel. It also could be used as the
foundation
or construction f a macroeconomic odel.
A hypothetical xample of consistency roblems
A hypothetical
xample ay help illustrate
he consistency roblems
that are likely
to arise when a complete fremework
s not used. Suppose that
an economic
report projectsan increase
in growth in country
X from its
present (1988)
nemic rate of 2.4 percent to
4.8 percent by
the year 2000. To
support
this increase n growth, the rate of investment s projected
o double
from 12 percent of GNP to 24 percent
of GNP. At the same time, it is
projected
that the
current worrisome
fiscal deficit
of 6 percentof GNP is
gradually reduced to
zero by the year 2000,
financed ntirely
y increases n
taxes. Public investment nd consumption
tay constarnt t 6 percent and 10
percent of GNP respectively. Inflation s projected o remain constant at 10
percent per year. Finally, it is projected hat the current account deficit
will remain stable at 3 percent of GNP.
Is this projection onsistent? Yes, but only at very unrealistic
values for private sector investment, aving, and financial ehavior.
he
private investment
atio increases y a factor of three, from 6 percent of GNP
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-3
to
18 percentof GNP,
since total
investment
s doubling
hile public
investment
s constant.
To
finance
the higher investment
ith
a given current
account
deficit,
rivate saving
ill have
to increase
rom
9 percent of GNP to
15 percent
of
GNP, while public
saving increases
rom
0 to
6 percentof GNP.
However,
the higher
public
saving is
financed y increased
axes,
which
decrease
private disposable
income. Thus,private
saving
as a percent
of
disposable
ncome will
have to
increase ven more,
from 10
percent to
18
percent. It is
difficult
o conceive
of policy
measures that
would induce
such
a strong
responsein saving
and investment.
These values
of saving and investment
lso
have implausible
implications
or financial ggregates.
Let us assume
for this
example that 60
percent
of saving
goes
into financial
sset accumulation,
ith
the
other 40
percent
going directly
into
self-financed
nvestment.
Let us also
assume
that
the
initial
ratio of financial
ssets
to GNP is
48 percent,
hich is the
steady state
value
consistent
ith
the initialsaving
rate and
growth rate.
Then the increase
in saving
rate would
imply an
increase n the ratio
of
financial
ssets
to GNP in the economy
from
48 percent
to 59
percentby the
year
2000. The long
run effect
is even
greater,since the
new steady
state
ratio
of financial ssets
to GNP
will be 68
percent. Since the
public
deficit
is being
reduced,the implications
or private
sector
creditwould be
even
stronger.
Real
private
sector
credit would be growing
at
around
14 percent
per
year for
most of the period.
In the
long run,
the ratio
of privatecredit
to
GNP will
be 90 percent,an
astonishing
ncrease
ver the
initialvalue of
27 percent.
The
public sector ould
be a
net creditor
to the
banking system
in the amount
of
22 percent
of GNP in the
long run.
2 This impliesan even greatermarginal
propensity o
save.
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Such an outcome is not mathematically mpossible. ut it is very
unlikely
that the policy actions, the private sector response, nd external
conditions
ould all be sufficiently
trong to generate
these results
in any
given country. What initially eemed like a reasonably easible rojection
becomes highly unlikely hen it is analyzed n a full consistency ramework.
A consistency ramework or macroeconomic nalysis
This paper presents the elements f a macroeconomic ccounting
framework n current prices. The framework s based on five accounts,
corresponding oughly to the macro identities numerated bove: 1) government,
2) monetary system, 3) nonfinancial rivate sector, 4) balance of payments,
and 5) nationalaccounts. These would be the minimum elements of a
consistency ramework; e will also indicate here further disaggregation
might be useful in some cases.
The accounts ill be presented in two ways. We will present first
the individual ccounts, nd then integrate hem through a matrix of income,
expenditure, aving, and asset and liability ccumulation.
1. Individual ccounts
Account 1 is for the government, efined in the budgetary ense. If
non-budgetary ublic sector operations xist, then whatever is left out of the
public sector accounts ill implicitly e included in the private sector. The
breakdown of public sector income and expenditure s limited to the main
national accounts and BOP categories. Value added income received irectly y
3 An extension f the framework o constant
rices is contained in Khadr and
Schmidt-Hebbel 1989a). Host-Madsen 1979) rovides a good general
discussion f issues in macroeconomic ccounting.
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-5-
the public sector is the net operating surplus
lus depreciation f publ'c
entities engaged in production, alculated efore the payment of interest and
taxes. In the government ccounts, his item is sometimes resented as
nontax revenue."
The second half of Account 1 sb ws the asset and liability
accumulation f the government. Investriertepresents he accumulation f
physical capital, including nventories. Capital goods can be either domestic
or imported.
Net lending refers to loans made
directly by the public sector
to the private sector. The asset accumulation
an be financed hrough public
sector saving and
borrowing rom the monetary
system, private sector, and
foreigners.
In cases where there is detailed data on non-budgetary ublic
entities, it would
be useful to create a separate
on-budgetary ublic sector
account.
This would require an accounting f flows between the budgetary nd
non-budgetary omponents, _ well as their interaction ith other sectors.
Account 2 shows
the asset and liability hanges
for the monetary
system. The breadth of coverage
ill depend on the availability
f data and
what financial ggregates re used in the policy dialogue. It will usually
refer to the central bank and commercial anking system. We presume that the
monetary system has no current income or expenditure. The interest income
that it would receive on its loans to the government s assigned to the
private sector, while interest flows to and from the private sector will net
out. Interest expenditure n foreign debt of the financial ystem is also
assigned to the private sector. Any value added in the financial ector is
also implicitly ncluded n the private sector (or possibly in the fiscal
accounts in the case of public financial nstitutions). The exclusion f
current flows on the monetary system is necessary ecause sufficient ata is
usually lacking to reconstruct hese flows.
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The monetary system ill accumulate redit to the public and private
sectors as well as short-term oreign assets (international eserves). The
monetary system has liabilities n the form of currency, emand and quasi-
money deposits from the private sector, and medium and long-term oreign debt.
The change in net other liabilities s a residual tem that will capture any
profit or loss experienced y the monetary system (excluding evaluation ue
to exchange rate changes) - this item will be treated as an asset of the
private sector.
In many cases, it may be useful to disaggregate he monetary system
into the ceitral bank and the rest of the monetary system. This would provide
insight into the management f monetary policy in countries here independent
monetary management is feasible. We see explicitly he role of reserves eld
against banking deposits, nd central bank credits to the government, anking
system, and private sector. In both of the country examples that are provided
in the Appendix, this disaggregation s performed.
Account 3 shows the nonfinancial rivate sector. The private sector
receives alue added income from production (wages lus profits) as well as
transfers nd interest income from the government, nd transfers rom abroad.
They use their income to consume imported nd domestic goods, to pay taxes,
and to pay interest n the private foreign debt. The balancing tem is
private saving, defined as disposable ncome less current expenditures.
The capital account of the private sector includes ccumulation f
physical capital (domestic r imported), s well as of government onds,
currency, eposits and other assets in the monetary system, and foreign
assets. They finance this accumulation ith their own saving, borrowing rom
the monetary system and abroad, and net lending from the government.
Account 4 shows the income and expenditure f the external sector.
Presentation f this account can be confusing, ince we can look at it either
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-7-
from the point of
view of the
rest of the world
(ROW) or
of nationals. To be
consistent ith the
other accounts, t
is presented ere from
the point of
view of ROW,
which means that
imports are treatedas income (of ROW) and
exports are treated as expenditure
of ROW).
Similarly, xternal borrowing
is
viewed as asset
accumulation y ROW.
Foreign
exchange outlaysin the current account
(income of ROW)
are
divided into
interest n public ana private foreign
debt and imports.
Interest n public
debt could be defined in net terms by subtracting
nterest
earned
on foreign exchange reserves
from interest aid
on public foreign
debt.
It may be useful
to break down imports
into consumption
mports (public and
private), investment
mports (public
nd private), nd intermediate
mports.
However.
it may not be possible
in many cases to disaggregate mports in
which
case only
total imports ill be
estimated.
Foreign exchange
receipts (expenditure
f ROW) are broken down into
exports and transfers
(public and private).
It may be desirable n some cases
to disaggregate xports
further into, for
example, traditional nd
nontraditional
ategories.
In some countries,
onfinancial actor income
(such as wage remittances) ay also
need to be included.
The balancing tem
in the current account is foreign saving,
hich is equivalent
o the current
account deficit.
The financing
f the current
account deficit is
given in the capital
account
part of Account
4. The public sector,
onetary system, and
private
sector all borrow
abroad. The monetary system accumulates
oreign assets in
the form of international eserves.
The international
eserves hould
be
defined in a way consistent ith
the standard efinition
sed in the policy
4 This would
be appropriate f
interest n reserves
re passed from the
central bank to the
budget. In other cases, this interest
ould have to
be treated as private sector income.
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dialogue.
The private sector
accumulation
f assets could also
be estimated
when capital
flight
data is
available. This
can be estimated
n
the basis of
the
*errorsand omissions"
nd
"capital
EI* lines
of the BOP in
some cases.
Accumulation f
foreign
assets by
the government
ould be
accomodated
y
defining
their debt in
net terms.
The change
in foreign debt
and assets
should
exclude
revaluation
hangesresulting
rom devaluation
f
the domestic
currencyor cross-currency
ate
changes.
While this
paper excludescapital
gains
and losses,an
extension
f the framework
o include
them is
presented
in
Khadr and Schmidt-Hebbel
1989a).
The foreign
currency
figuresof
the balance
of payments
should
be
convertedinto
domestic
currency
ith the
average officialexchange
rate
for
each period.
In
countries with ultiple
or parallel
exchange
rates,
ore
complicated
djustments
ay be necessary.
The
national
accountsfollow from
the previous
accounts. GDP is
broken
down on
the incomeside into
private
sector
alue added,
public sector
value
added (retained
rofitsby
state enterprises),
ndirect axes,
and
subsidies entering
ith a
negative sigrn.
On the expenditure
ide,
GDP is
disaggregated
nto consumption
public
nd
private), nvestment
public and
private),
nd
net exports (exports
inus
imports).
Tb-e
apitalaccount
counterpart
s
the saving-investment
dentity, here
the sum
of public
and
private
investment ust
equate to
the sum
of public,
private,and foreign
saving.
2. Matrix
presentation
Althoughthe individual
ccounts
give
a comprehensive
resentation
f
the flows
in the
consistency
ramework,
t is helpful
to
integrate
he
accounts
so that
they are
mutuallyconsistent.
For
this, a useful
device
is a
matrix of sourcesand uses for the four sectorsplus the nationalaccounts.
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-9-
The
matrix
can
be seen as
a combination
f the
flow-of-funds
FOF)
and
social accounting
atrix
(SAM) approaches
o
macroeconomic ccounting.
The FOF
methodology
mphasizes
he equality
f sources
and
uses of funds.
distinguished
etween
current
and capital
accounts. The
version
of the kOF
methodology nderlying
his framework
s
that presentedin
Holsen (1989).
The SAM
approach
presents
the standard
acroeconomic
dentities
(savings-investment,
ncome-expenditure)
n
a form that shows
the
participatiot
f each
economicagent in
the economy.
The
SAM has
traditionally een
used for
ana'.7sis
f the real
economy, s in
general
equilibrium
odels,
and thus
covered
only real
variables. However,
it has
recently
een extended
to cover
real-financial
nteractions s well
(Easterly
(forthcoming),
aylor and Rosensweig
(forthcoming)).
The
matrix has
the advantage
hat it captures
he
strong oints
of
both
the SAM and
FOF approaches.
The matrix
presentation
as the appealing
feature
that the
row sumsmust equate
to the
sums of
the corresponding
columns. This allows us to verify at a glance that the accounts
are
consistent.
Like the
SAM, it also presents
the
main macroeconomic
dentities
in a transparent
ay. Thus
the first
row
is the conventional
DP identity
from the expenditure
ide,
while the
first column
is the GDP identity
from
the
income
side. The last row
and column
give
the identity
f savingand
investment.
As in the FOP approach, he matrix stresses he identity f sources
and
uses, distinguished
etween
currentand capital
accounts.
The
upper left
hand 5
x 5 corner
of the matrix presents
he
current
part of each
of the five
accounts
(although he
current
account
of the monetary
system is left
empty
as
explained arlier).
The remainder
f the
matrix
records the
capital account
transactions
for each sector. The connecting ink between the two is the savingof each
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- 10 -
sector,
shown as a diagonal
atrix
in the lower
left-hand art of the matrix.
Thus, the first
part of the matrix
records the identity
f current sourcesand
uses, where
the latter includessaving. The second half
of the matrix--the
lower
half and the
right half and their intersection--show
he
financing
identity
for each sector, ith their borrowing
hown across the
row and their
asset accumulation
own
the column.
This is
the identity f
capital
sources
and uses, with saving again as the balancingitem.
The matrix
first presents the incomeand expenditure lows which
correspond o
GDP, in the first row and column.
The next rows and
columns
give the income and expenditure f each a3ent, here the balancing tem is
saving.
Finallythe last
rows and columns
give
the asset
and liability
accumulation
f
each agent
in the capitalaccount,
here investment
s
included as accumulation
f a physical
sset. Saving
is again the balancing
item, presented ow
as a source
of funds.
Saving is equivalent
o the change
in net worth
(abstracting rom
capital gains considerations),
here net worth
will include both physical
capital and net financial
ssets.
Alternatively,
e can
think of
the matrix
as distinguishing above
the
line" and "belowthe line" flows.
This conforms
to the conventional
manner of presenting the public
sector and balance of payments
accounts. he
lower right-hand
x 5 matrix
represents
he financial below the
line" flows,
while the remainder
epresents above the line" flows.
The sum of each
capital account column
will give the gross
asset
accumulation f that sector,
including
oth physical apital
and financial
asset accumulation. The sum of each
capital accourit ow gives the sum of
saving and
gross borrowing
y each
sector (recallthat for
the monetary
system, there is
no saving). Since row sums must equal column
sums in this
matrix,
this implies
that investment
lus financial sset accumulation
ust
equal saving plus financial iability
ccumulation.
This is another
form of
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- 11
the familiar dentity that saving
inus investment quals net financial sset
accumulation or each sector.
For the monetary system,
hich has neither saving
nor investment,
this identity requires hat the change in its net financial osition is zero.
This necessitates residual item, called here "net other liabilities", hich
often appears explicitly in
the primary data source.
The example of the public sector may be helpful in clarifying he use
of the matrix. Reading across the row for
public income (current ources), e
get public value added and indirect axes minus subsidies nd
direct taxes
from the private sector. (Direct axes are in turn an expenditure or use)
for the private sector.) Reading down the column for the public sector e
get current expenditures uch as government
onsumption, ransfers, nd
interest ayments. The balancing item that ensures the sum of the column
entries will be equal to the sum of the row entries is government aving. By
definition, aving plus current expenditure ust equal current income.
The second part of the matrix will give the capital account of the
public sector. Reading down the capital acceant column fo: the public sector,
we see asset accumulation n the form of purchases f capitalgoods
(investment) lus net lending to the private sector. This asset accumulation
will be financed y public sector saving (which ould be negative), nd
borrowing from the monetary system, private sector, and foreigners. Thus,
total capital sources (including aving) ill equal total capital uses. To
put it another way, the public deficit - public saving inus public
investment - will be equivalent o net borrowing rom other sectors.
It may also be helpful to explain the national accounts row of the
table in more detail. The first row gives the expenditure omponents f GDP.
The aggregate onsumption nd investment xpenditures government nd private)
includes spending n both imported and domestic goods. Therefore, e have to
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- 12 -
subtract imported goods expenditure rom exports to obtain net foreign
exchange earnings, hich will give us GDP when summed ith total consumption
and investment. The imports are added back in further down the external
sector column, in the external sector row. Th'.s nsures that that the external
sector column sum will be total current foreign exchange
receipts, hile the
external sector row sum will be total current foreign exchange payments.
Problems of estimation
It is important o recognize ome of the practical roblems involved
in estimating he consistent ramework escribed bove with historical ata.
The historical
umbers themselves re usually not consistent. This is because
the different ets of accounts - national
accounts, iscal account., alance
of payments accounts, nd monetary accounts
-
use different ccounting
methodologies. For example, the balance of payments and national accounts are
estimated n an accrual basis, while the fiscal accounts are on a cash basis.
The monetary accounts are often inconsistent ith fiscal and balance of
payments ccounts so that we get different stimates f surpluses r deficits
from "above the line* or "below he line".
To construct the accounts, e will thus often have to choose between
competing stimates
f the same concept. For example, either the balance of
payments or national accounts could be used to estimate xports and imports of
goods and nonfactor ervices. In the estimation xamples elow we used the
BOP estimates, since these accounts are more readily available n a timely
basis. Private consumption hen must be adjusted to preserve the national
accounting dertity.
Other items in the accounts can be estimated esidually o preserve
accounting onsistency. For example, in the Colombia estimates, he net
lending of the public sector to the private sector as estimated esidually o
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- 13 -
reconcile
elow the
line financing
ith the
estimated ublic sector
deficit.
Similarly, rivate
foreign asset accumulation
as estimatedresidually o
reconcile oreign debt flows
with the estimated
urrent account deficit.
These residuals ill
absorb the measurement
rrors and methodological
inconsistencies n the accounts,
nd so should not
be interpreted oo
literally. Where such residuals re
excessively arge, further
work is needed
to identify
the source
of the inconsistency.
Even
substantial nconsistencies n the
historical ata
do not
necessarily
ender invalid the consistency
xercise,
hose purpose
is to
provide a framework
or projections r analysis
of policy tradeoffs.
If we
presume that
the size of the inconsistency ill remain
ithin a limited range
over
time, then
it will still be
possible to
use the framework or analysis
of
the future.
The principle
f enforcing
udget
constraints olds even if the
historical
ata do not precisely
it these constraints. Measurement
rrors in
accounting
identities re analogous
o stochastic rror terms in behavioral
equations - in both cases
the model remains
useful even
though it does not
fit the
data exactly.
Country examples
The appendix
contains applications f
this consistency
ramework o
historical ata for
Colombia and Zimbabwe.
It may provide
additional nsight
to
analyze what these applications
ell us, and to indicate ow implicit
r
explicit
behavioral relations
ould be added. The analysis of historical
ata
is purely for
illustrative urposes
- usually this kind of a framework ould
be used as a basis
for a projection
r for a counter-factual imulation.
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- 14 -
1. Colombia
The appendix
shows the
matrix of 1986 flows for Colombia
as a
percentage f GDP.
We see that the public sector ad a high rate
of saving in
1986 (6.86S
of GDP), which actually
exceeded total public investment
5.33+
1.34 6.67
2 of GDP).
5
Despite this
small public
sector surplus,
he
government orrowed
abroad in significant
mounts (2.03 Z of GDP). This
foreign borrowing as
used to reduce government
ebt at the central
bank in an
amount
equal to 2.51 2
of GDP. The rest of the foreign borrowing,
ogether
with modest
borrowing from the
financial ystem and
directly from the private
sector, as used to
finance net lending
(i.e. development redits)
to the
private sector in
the amount of 0.58
2 of GDP.
The central bank
had substantial nflowsof foreign reserves
o
accomodate in 1986,
equal to 3.45 2
of GDP, because of the
current account
surplus and
substantial oreign
borrowing. In this task,
it would have been
helped
by the repayment
f debt owed to it by
the government, xcept
this was
mostly offset by credit expansion o the financial ystem (0.97Z ercent of
GDP) and to the private
sector (1.55Z f GDP). The latter is
calculated s a
residual.
In total, ti,e iabilities f the central bank
expanded y an amount
equal to 3.46Z of
GDP. However, as shown in account 2,
only 1.74 of GDP
of
this
amount corresponded o expansion f the
monetary base. The remainder
as
accounted
or by nonmonetary
iabilities old to
banks and the nonfinancial
public sector, and by foreign borrowing. The issuing of the nonmonetary
liabilities as
a sort of open-market
peration hat allowed
the central bank
to sterilize substantial
ortion of the reserve
increase.
5 Two decimal points are given
to assist the reader
in matching figures
in
the text to those
in the table. It
is unlikely that the quality of the
data justifies such precision.
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- 15
_
The financial
ystem as only
a minor source
of finance to the
government
(0.46Z of GDP), despite
the large increasein quasi-money eposits
by the private sector
(7.812 f GDP).
Most of this was returned
o the
private sector as loans
(6.97Z f GDP), with
the remainder ied
up in the
central bank in
the form of reserves
(1.01Z f GDP) or non-monetary ssets
(0.99 Z of GDP).
The
private sector also had a higher
rate of saving (12.43Z
f GDP)
than invest.-ent 9.01+2.27 11.28Z of GDP),
so its net financial ccumulation
was positive.
Even so, it had substantial
orrowing from the
public sector and
the central bank (development
oans), the financial ystem, and abroad. Most
of the private
saving ent into currency,
entral bank bonds,
or deposits in
the banking
systenm, lthough
small amount (0.25 2
of GDP) also went into
accumulation f foreign
assets. However,
the estimate f foreign
asset
accumulation s derived
as a residual, nd so should
be viewed with caution.
The resource surpluses f the
public and private sectors
imply an
overall current
account surplus, hich
shows up in the matrix as negative
foreign saving (-1.34Z of GDP).
This outcome is partly
expiained y the
high
coffee prices during
1986. Despite the current
account surplus,there was a
substantial
low of foreign
financing (2.362
f GDP), only slightly ffset by
the private foreignasset accumulation.
This is what resulted
in the large
reserve accumulation
t the central bank (3.45Z
f GDP).
It is useful to compare these results to the 1987 flows for Colombia,
also shown
in the appendix. In 1987 public sector
saving was much lower
(4.21Z
of GDP), reflecting
he end of the coffee
boom of the previous
year.
The overall public
sector balance
--
saving
less investment
--
thus reverted
to a deficit of
1.59Z of GDP. Net
public foreign borrowing
as actually
negative
in 1987 (-0.61Z
of GDP), and net lending to the
private sector
as
slightly igher (0.792of GDP), so there was much greaterreliance n
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- 16 -
financing rom the
central bank (1.38? f
GDP) and financial ystem (1.3? of
GDP).
The central
bank financed
its credit to the government ith sizeable
increases n its liabilities
o the banking
system (1.1 of GDP) and private
sector (1.32 of GDP). Foreign
borrowing t the
central bank was close
to zero
in 1987. while
international eserves eclined. Most
of the increase in
domestic central bank liabilities as
accounted or by expansion f high-
powered money (1.9? of GDP).
The private
sector showed
a significant ncrease in saving
over 1986
(to 16.4? of
GDP). Together ith
borrowing from the
government, inancial
system,
and abroad, this was used to finance
a considerable xpansion in
investment(to 13.5? of GDP), while
the flow of deposits
in the financial
system also rose slightly (7.93Z f GDP). The residual item
-
accumulation
of foreign
assets - is also larger in 1987 (1.24Z f GDP).
It is instructive
o compare the size of the residuals
btained in
the exercise ith independent stimates f these variables. The flow of net
other assets of the central bank in the consistency alculation
s 1.55 and
1.05 percent of GDP in 1986 and 1987, respectively. By contrast, he flow of
net
other assets plus lending to the private
sector of the central bank
calculated directly is
-0.13 and -.05 percent of GDP in 1986 and
1987. This
indicates n inconsistency
n the numbers thatcould reflect, mong other
things,an operating
oss at the central
bank when capital
gains on
international
eserves are excluded.
Similarly,
he residual item
for the public sector
is net lending
to
the private sector,
which is 0.58 and 0.79 percent of GDP in
1986 and 1987. A
comparable
direct estimate f this item would be the
residual alculated
y
the IMF between the "above
the line' deficit
and the "below the line"
financing,
hich is -0.4
and 0.2 percent
of GDP in 1986 and 1987.
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- 17
-
Finally,the residual
for the balance
of payments
is foreign asset
accumulation y the private sector, in the amount
of 0.25 and 1.24 percent of
GDP in 1986 and 1987. There is no direct estimate f this concept available,
but a comparable item would be the errors and omissions ine of the balance of
payments. This shows 0.37 and 0.01 percent of GDP in 1986 and 1987.
These numbers should induce caution in interpreting ny of the
residual estimates oo literally. It is inevitable hat there be some
discrepancy n attempting o reconcile he different ccounts, s explained
earlier. How much discrepancy s tolerable ill vary from one country to
another depending n the quality of the data available.
The numbers are also of limited relevance ithout introducing n
implicit r explicit behavioral odel to analyze them, such as would be done
in a projection r a study of policy alternatives. For example, a portfolio
model of private sector demands for financial ssets might be specified. We
then could ask what effect the shift
towards domestic financing f the public
sector deficit during 1987 had on inflation through money demand equation)
and on interest rates (through n equation for portfolio emand for interest-
bearing financial ssets). In a projection, he question ight be posed as to
what interest ates and inflation ould be necessary or the government o
obtain a particular evel and composition f domestic financing. Similarly,
in a projection he consistency f foreign debt inflows and the current
account deficit with export and import erformance
-
based on the real
exchange rate, terms of trade, trade policy, etc. -- would need to be
explicitly odelled. This could be used to ask what real exchange rate would
be necessary to support a particular utcome.
-
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-
18 -
2. Zimbabwe
This example is based
on a more detailed
presentation
ontained in
Khadr
and Schmidt-Hebbel 1989b). Their presentation
lso contains an
extension o constant prices.
The matrix
of 1987 flo'ds
or Zimbabwe (see Table
1) shows that
public
dissaving as significant 3.82 of GDP). The
overall public sector borrowing
requirement
mounted to some 102 of GDP. Foreign borrowing nd credit from
the
financial ystem were both relatively odest (1.62 and 1.92
of GDP,
respectively).
he bulk (6.82 of GDP)
came from borrowing
from the private
sector.Aside from public investment (3.62 of GDP) and public dissaving, he
remainder
f government orrowing (2.92 of
GDP) was used mainly
to provide
capital transfers
o parastatals, hich are subsumed
in the private
sector.
For the central bank, foreign reserve inflows were significant n
1987 (2.32 of GDP).
Total domestic credit expansion as
negligible, ut
there
was a
slight increase in
credit to the government (0.72 of GDP)
at the expense
of a contraction
n credit to the private sector (which includes local
government nd
parastatals). here
was also a
minor entry for repayment f
foreign
loans. The liabilities
f the central
bank therefore ncreased
y
some 2.52 of GDP, predominantly
n the form of commercial ank reserves.
The banking
sector as a modest
source of finance
to the government
(1.22 of GDP) and the private sector (0.92 of GDP) in 1987.
More important as
the increase in reserves
ith the central
bank (2.72
of GDP). The
corresponding ncrease
in the liabilities
f the banking
system (5.02 of GDP)
took the
form of an increase
in demand deposits
(0.92) nd time deposits
(4.12).
The savings of the
private sector (23? of GDP) significantly xceeded
its investment
(152
of GDP) in 1987.
This aside,
capital flows to the private
sector included
capital transfers rom
the government (mainly o parastatals)
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- 19 -
(2.9? of GDP), loans from the banking system (0.92 of GDP) and foreign
borrowing(0.2Z of GDP).
Uses in the private
sector's apital account
covered
lendingto the government
ie.
acquisition
f bonds and
Treasury bills) (6.8?
of GDP), an increasein holdingsof currency nd demanddeposits(0.9Z of
GDP). an increase
n quasi-money
4.1?
of GDP), repayments
o the central bank
(0.5? of GDP)
and _isinvestment
y foreign
multinationals
0.42 of GDP).
Finally, the large excess
of private
saving over
investment n 1987
allowed
a modest
currentaccount surplus
in the
balance
of payments (0.82 of
GDP)
to coexist
with the
sizeable ublic deficit.
he surplus
is the result
mainly of tight restrictions n imports. he inflowof foreignborrowing (2?
of GDP)
largelyfinanced foreign
reserve
accumulation
y
the centralbank
(2.3Z
of GDP).
As
with the
Colombia example,
the
Zimbabwe onsistency
ramework
would have to be used
together ith a behavioral
odel to deepen the analysis.
We could
ask what
the heavy reliance f the
government
n domestic
bonds sold
to
the private sector eans
for crowding out of private
investment. In a
projection,
e
could look at the
government's
uture
ebt service
requirements
based on the existing stock
of government ebt
and discuss hat
the tradeoffs
were among alternative iscaladjustment trategies.
Conclusion
To answer Emerson's uestion osed at the
beginning, onsistency
s a
hobgoblin
hat
cannotbe avoided
by macroeconomists.
Even though
measurement
errors
may prevent
us from observing
xactly
the budget
constraints,
e at
least know
the equations
hat
must
be approximated.
This is an
improvement
6
No doubt Emerson would have responded hat
this confirms that
macroeconomists ave "little inds".
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-
20
-
over the situation ften
encountered n economic nalysis here both the form
of thc equation and the data are uncertain. While budget constraints o not
uniquely determine
particular conomic utcome, they do allow us to rule out
a great many outcomes hen we have some notion of 'reasonable' ehavior. In
many cases this is enough to evaluate hether a particular djustment cenario
is feasible. Even where a fully-specified ehavioral odel is desired, the
consistency elations re invaluable n defining
he structure f the model.
A good grasp of consistency s a necessary ddition to the macroeconomist's
toolkit.
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CONSISTENCY
ACCOUNTING
MA
T
RIX
13-Apr
Curront,
ccount
f:
Capital
ccount
f:
National
Budgetary
Monetary
Nonfinancial
Euternal
Budgetary
Monetary
Nonfinancial
External
Total
TOTAL
Sources
across)
nd
Accounts
Public
System
Private
Public
System
Private
Invostment
Uses
(down)
Sector
Sector
Sector
Sector
National
I
Ioverneant
I
I Private
IExportsamUSi
CoverneentI
I
Privateo
I
Total
I
Accounts
I Consumptionl
IConsumptionl
mainus
I 1Znve,st~ment
I
linveatmeot
I
Ilnve,tmeot
I
I
~
~~I
I
I
11sportsGNsI
I
I
I
I
IIGD
Budgotary
IIndir
TaMes
I
I Pr'ivate
I Transfers
Gross
Public
Seoctor
I-Subsidios
I
II
Direct
I
E
to C
IIIIII
Govsrnment
(Govermsent)
G)
1. NotGov't
I
Ij
Taes.
I
I
III
Icome
10per.
Surplusli
I
I
I I
I
I
Monetary
IIIIII
System
MS)
IIIIII
Non-Finoncial
I
Private T7reanfrer
I
I
Transfers
II
III
I
Gross
Privete
Sector
I
Wages
.I.In1toreatl
E toPR
IIIIIII
Private
(PR)
I Profits
a
Gto?
I
II
Income
External
I
Interest I
I Interest
Il.portaGNFSI
III
I
I
Gross
Sector
I
I Gto EI
I
PR to E
II
I
I
I
I For Exchang.
(E)
IIIIIII
Pyet
Saving
nd
borrowing
f:
Budgoetry
I GVovrnamet
I
I I
id US Credit
d PR
Creditld For
Debt
I
I Borrowing
Public
Sector
I SavingII
I
I
I
I to
Govt
to GovtI
of Govt
I
I*Soviog
of I
Monetary
I
I
I
I
I I
I
I
d Broadid
Fore tlI
d US
System
I
I
I
I
I II
I
Ilonoy
(112)-I
of
US
ILiabilitios
I
~
~~I
I
I
I
I I
I
id otOtberl
I
I
I
I
I.
I
I
I I
I
Iliab.
f
MS
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
II------I------I-------I-------------II------I------I
------ ------
I------I
-----
Mon-Financial
I I
Primste
I
iNst
LeWiningid
S
Credit
Id
For
Debt I IBorreming
#
Private Sector I
I
SavingI
I
I to
PR I to R
I
I
of PR
ISovisglof
Pi
I
I
I
I
I
II
I I---I------I-------I-------------II------------I------I -----
------ ------
External
I
I
I
I
Foreign
I I
I
d Internat
d For..
I d
Int')
SectorIIII
Saving
II
Reservee Assets
f
I Reserves
I
I
I
I ~~~~~~~~~~~(-CA
et.)
I I
of MS
PRI
I
It A efici'
I
I
I
I-----------------
-----
------
I-----------I---------------
-----
-----------
-----
Saving--total
(sum
I
Government
I
Private
ForeignIIIII
I
I
Tota
of
previous
4 rowe)I
I SavingI
I
Saving
I SavingII
II
Saving
I
--
-
-- -
- - - -
-- - - -I
--- - -I--
- -- - -
-- --
- -I--
- -- -
-I I
--
-
- ---
- --
- -I
--- -I
---
----
- -I
--- -
TOTAL
CDGP
Tot
Currentl
ITot
Currewtit
Total
FX
I IAsset
ccuml
d
MS Asset
Accuml Tot
ForI
Total
I
~~~I
ovt
Uses
I
I PR
Uses
Receipts
I I
of GovtI
Assets
of PR I
Debt linvestamatI
-- -I
-
- - -I -
- - -- -
-II-
- -- -
-I- - - --
-
--- --
-I -- -
- --
I --
- -- -I --
- - --
-I -- - -
-- I-
-- - -
-- I - --
- - -I
---
-
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- 22
-
1. GOVERNMENT (G)
------------------------------------- ______________.________---------
ICurrent evenue: iCurrent xpenditures:
I-- - - - - - - - -I-------------------------------------
IDirect Taxes JGovernmentonsumption
|lndirect axes
IDomestic
ransfers
I
I
INet Operating urplus llnterest ayment:
I I on Domestic Debt held by PR
jTransfers
rom Abroad I on Foreign
Debt
ILess: Subsidies
IGov't
aving
IChange in Assets:
IChange n
Liabilities:
I-------------------------------------I------------------------------------
iGovernment nvestment lGovernment aving
INet Lending
o
PR IChange in MS Credit to Gov't
I I
I
IChange n PR Credit to Gov't
I
I
I
IChange in Foreign Credit to Gov't
Gov't
Saving Direct taxes + Indirect
axes + Net Operating
urplus
+ Transfers from Abroad - Subsidies - Consumption - Dom. Transfers
- Interest n Dom. Debt held by PR - Interest n For. Debt
Investment
Net Lending to PR - Saving + dMS Credit to Gov't
+ dPR Credit to Gov't
+ dForeign redit
to Gov't
2. MONETARY SYSTEM
(MS)
I------------------------ ------------
----------
-----------------------
IChange in Assets: IChange n Liabilities:
I-------------------------------------I------------------------------------
iChange in MS credit to Government IChange n Broad Money (M2)
I
i
IChange in MS credit
to PR IChange
n MLT Foreign Debt of MS
IChange in
Foreign Reserves of MS
IChange n Net Other Liab. to PR
I
I
dCredit to Gov't
+
dCredit to PR
=
dM2
+
dMLT For. Debt
* dForeign Reserves + dNet Other Liab. to PR
MLT: medium- and long-term
d: change in a financial tock within period
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-
23
-
3. NON-FINANCIAL RIVATE SECTOR (PR)
I----------------------------I-----.--------------------------------
jCurrent evenue: ICurrent xpenditures:
I-------------------------------------I------------------------------
IValue dded Income (wages
+ profits) IConsumption:
I I Domestic PR Consumption
IDomestic ransfers
from Gov't j Private
Consumer Imports
lInterest ayment on Domestic Debt
IDirect axes
I held by PR I
I
llnterest aid on Private For. Debt
ITransfers rom Abroad
IPR Saving
-- - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - -I-- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - -
IChange in Assets: iChange in Liabilitiess
I---------------------..I
_------------
I-------------------------------------
IPrivate nvestment IPR Saving
IChange in PR Credit to Government IChange in MS Credit to PR
I
I
IChange in
Broad Money (M2) IChange in Foreign Debt
of
PR
I I
IChange in
Foreign Assets of PR INet Lending from Government
I I
IChange in Net Other Liabilities f MSI
I I
I-------------------------------------I--------------------------------
Private Saving Value Added Income
+ Domestic ranfers from Gov't
+
Interest n Dom. Debt + Transfers from Abroad
-
Consumption
-
Direct
Taxes
-
Interest on Private Foreign Debt
Investment dCredit to Gov't - Saving + dMS Credit to PR
+ dM2 + DForeign Assets
+
dForeign
Debt
+
dNet Other Lib. of MS + Net Lending from Gov't
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-
24
-
4. EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS
(E)
----------
--------------------------
I---
----------------------------------
ICurrent Revenue (of ROW):
ICurrent
Expenditures
(of ROW):
-------------------------------------I------------------------------------
lInterest: lExports (GNFS)
i
Received from Gov't
I I
Received
from PR
ICurrent Transfers
to Government
lImports
(GNFS)
ICurrent Transfers to PR
IForeign
Saving
(- CA
Deficit)
I
I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IChange in Assets (of
ROW): IChange
in Liabilities (of
ROW):
I
I-------------------------------------I-------------------------------------
IChange in Net Foreign
Debt
of Gov't
IForeign
Saving
(-
CA
deficit)
I
I I
iChange in MLT Foreign
Debt of MS IChange in Foreign Reserves of
MS
IChange
in Foreign Debt
of PR
IChange in Foreign Assets
of PR
I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
*
ROW
-
Rest of World
CA Deficit
- Interest from
Gov't + Interest
from PR
+
Imports
-
Exports
- Current Transfers to
Gov't - Current
Transfers to PR
dNet
Foreign Debt of Gov't
- CA Deficit
+
dMLT Foreign Debt of MS
+
dForeign Reserves of MS
+ dForeign Debt of PR
+ dForeign
Assets of PR
CA Deficit: Current Account Deficit-
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- 25 -
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Easterly, . "Portfolio ffects
in a CGE Model:
Devaluation n a Dollarized
Economy"
in L. Taylor,
ed. Structuralist omputable
eneral Equilibrium
Models, [forthcoming].
Holsen, J. "An
Illustration f RMSM-X (Revised inimum
Standard odel-
-Extended]," [1989].
Host-Madsen,
. Macroeconomic ccounts: n Overview.
International
onetary
Fund,
Pamphlet Series No.
29, Washington,
.C., (1979],
Khadr,
A. and K. Schmidt-Hebbel.
"A Framework or Macroeconomic onsistency
in Current
and Constant Prices,"
ECMG, [1989a].
_
WA
Macroeconomic
onsistency ramework
ith an Application o
Zimbabwe," ECMG, [1989b].
Rosensweig, .
and L. Taylor "Devaluation,
apital
Flows, and Crowding-Out:
A
CGE Model with Portfolio
hoice for
Thailand" n Taylor,ed. Op.cit.
(forthcoming].
-
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-
8/11/2019 Easterly+1989
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I
~~~~~~~COLUMBIA
(EONISTF,ICVCCOLINFINC AlfifN
3Q66
C....r.n PI-COD (a. a I of CDP)
14-Apr
C 'frat a.Cco t
of
Cap.tal acccOnt of
N.c..'-6 P.bI,c Central F.. P'.e.. E.t*,nal P.bl.. Central F-na-cal P-,nt.e Eatermel Total TOTAL
Sou.ee (Ocroe.) and *~.. s SeCt. a..h
sye.to
s..to,
Sector Bookt Spots. santo. Sector
Inneauten
a..o down) fea&CotI)
Nsi.oe.l
I lCont Cnone"
11IIPi.st.
Coines.
ICWeS
19.0315 Coantea. I Frri to low. I 57.5.1 Ine
I
I
Accouste I 1Dooeat,c 6.09 1 M naestic 63.71 ilnt. -5.1? I jIoaseetoc 5 33 1 I Domestic 9.01 I jomemtic 4 34 I 1100.00 I
Mom-Fineaciel (G)
gNCOS 95
e I I
T
*.es 2.041II SIII
A.blic Sectw Ife.e, 12 44
1
)[alit 0.14 I
.53I
5S.ba -0555 I
I
I
Central (Call I
I I
II
SenFt
IciR)Il . O. I I I Il% 0 I I
III
F.aanse$c
ter
(P5) I
'l
ITr
re
GWI I
I
lIf
SI.2 I I W.ItI
Spel
I
~~~Aded
I I I I
II IIIII I I
E.te-FlesIcIaIn%.)2Fr2ate lin. 0.5 lIes 00 I
I IT
l
P*trie. etsVI. 85 TrC(e. fre
losn 0 "I..0
.55 I II..
es 2.111 1 In. .71in." 3 II 0.01 I
I I ed 5 I I
IWS " II I I I I I I I
se. ntam oeol
s f
I
lIt. .2 I Int 1.0I
I I I I
I I IToIal
Seor
* Imcia
ICon. INI0.1I
I ICo.N
9
)t
.7 ICIne
d
1.34c1
, amw. to
2.2
,. Debt I NI6
I000
ftbliccib1
Ism 5a I
I Sw
665 I I I c - tIoa 0
IPR04
a a 2 031 72
Seieeet.ra.u.f I I I I I
I
I Iftee
.1IC ,n, 07
I
4.Le.
I I
1
.
Book I
a I5owtI I I I I I
IC
rei IN cLeitbO. INK
Ldeb
o Flot 0.21
I
.4
--
b
- -- ---- ---- ---- --- -- -- -- I- -- -- -- -- - -- --
I--
- - - - - - -I-- - - - - - -I I-- - - - - - - -I---- ----- ---- I--- ---- ---- I--- --- --- ---
2--
-- - - -I- - - -- - - -
I--- .---
I
CentreSl IIII I I I
I
ICIc.i
Ift re .14iCarreac 0.7 IFo,. LieS. I I I
Spates 5 I -I I I I I Ito FS
0 975
5NDLimb.
1.21 ot FS -0 71 I
9.43I
Non-Finanicial
I I I IPrinate I I Nst Lendi.n IcC8 r .t 5FS cred.t I 5Cradit -0 25
I I
Priest. Sector
I I I
5S.a.ng 12 43 5 I It. PR
0 0
Se o PR
I SS
Ito PR
6 97
I
5CF1 0 97
I 5 22.22 I
E.tornal I I
I IFor,.sn
I I
IF., R.e.,r.as IFor. eeta I I
I5I
Sector..
I I.
I i.eqn -1 345
bdlo
3 451 lotfPR
0.2551
I I 2.2551
Sawing--total
I 50~~joc5
I IFr-ate IFDoei.qf I5
(s.a of pro.eciu S
-o.)I ISa.c.n
6.8 I I 5San-n 12 43 155m
6
.
-1 34 I
1 79
5--- - - - - -- -I - -- - - - -I-- - - - - - - -I-- -- I- -- -I-- - - -- - - - I- - - -- - - -II--- - - -- - -- - - -- - -I-- - - - - - -I-- - - -- - - -- - - --
- - -- - -- - - -- -
-
-
5 .5I I
I
SI
I I I5
TOTAL I 1u0 00 5 23 63 I I 07.16 I 20 00 I 5 7.25 I 3 46 5 9.43 5 21.22
1 2 36 51? 95 5
5--
- - - - - - -I - -- - - - -I-- - - - - - - -I-- --
I-
-- -I-- - - - - - - -I-- - - - - - -I
I--
-- - -- -- - - -- - -- -- -I-- - - - -- --- - -- - - - - - - - - - -I-- - -- - - -- ---
Sac.sae
Inoasteont 0 19 1.15 -1 34
Verisbl* lbmes:
MMS: Net Co.'t Oparatnag S.rpl.o
Trfar
Transfers
Sets Sebm.dia.
Nll
. b
Oln-ooane,ar
L,ebil,t,oa
la% .
Interest NO La.b Nat 055cr t.sb,.it.oa
WF S.. Naon-facto,Se. can Qa.0. N Does.
1NO,e
int
N: ilrat
Ieeorta OFI Ore.ct Foreson In....two.t
Inn . In-et-et I.aortn F.r L.ab F.ra.gn t,&b,i,t,ea
Cons Con.Acot..o Incc
t Ef Enpo-ts of G-ood
and N-n
facto,
Sar,c.o
-
8/11/2019 Easterly+1989
31/44
COLOMBIA
u itSTEaCI
ACCaDNffC
at ARiLa
34.7 C-rren Price. (ae. S of
CDP)
la-Se.
C.rs-et ccout
of: C.p.tal acco,nt
Of.
Netunal rgblic Central in.
Ps-swat. Estasrnel Public Central FPsamoceal Ps-swat. t.tasrnal 1045i TOTAL
S~rcae (acroee) end A,.o.W.. butOBsiS Sastoo sector
Sector Ba&. Syss.,
Sector Secto, ia.aetmmant
i.e.. doSs)
(mhtotLo)
I
.........
------- I ------- --------I --------S -------A----- --- S -------I
-------I--------I----- -- I--------A ---I
Matlases 50o.c Cons... I 5Ptis-at.one... gaGES la 94 5
IGa.,#.
In.. I I Ps-maste
s.. I ntSie la.. I
Accent. I l0ceaac.c 7.51 I I 100ceastiC 63.39 11nt
N
-5.32 A jDaeetmic 46
5 I Ihammetic 20.63 I Joease tic 15.48 00 00 I
I-----------I-------I--------I ---- --------I -------5
---------------- I -------------------- ----------- ---
2ba-P.asac,al (C)
5fGC05
7 3.1 5 IIS.S..
I )65IS I I I
5.
Psshic Sector 51.... 1244 5 lint. 0.21 5 I
2
OISI3.66
lube -QISS I S I I
IISII
------------I -------I ------- ------- - ----- --- I -------I ----
----I --------------I S------I-------------------
Castr-al
(CS) II I III
Saab
SII I III
I I I I I I-------
----------------------- --------
II--------I
--------------I ----------
-----I-------I ---
Piesascial (FS) III
I III
Slate
I
- ---------- tLi---------I- --------- I----- I----
--------
I--
------
II--
-------
I-- ------I---
-- l---I------- I-------- ---------- I---
-- I
Na-Pbaascial
(PR) IPs-suete inat
GAB9
I I I lint. 0.051ISI
I I I
Pr-ivoet Sectr
lValue
60
72 iTre*sa 5.03 I I Airefare 2-fl IIA
I 0604651
lAddad
I I I I I Al
III
I
I I I I A IA------I-------------I---I--------- A----------------I---------------------------------I-------I---
Eatersal
f nt 2.60 1 I Alaes.
0.545 5555 litelO
I I
Sector A Cone H
0.13 1 I Ica"e. 1.22 llnt. 5.32 I Ala..I 1iii fin.. 2.6? 5 52ev.
N 3.62
1 30 2 5
5
5 5 5WSr. 6605. II
I A AMF
I,I
1
5-
I I
A A A A Al A A--I A-------AA-I-------------I--------I--------
-------- -------- I--------- -------- -----
So.iagend borrsoinagofl I A AIA A
A A A I
----------- I--------- --------- I---I------------I--A----A-A--- I -------------l--I-------
--------- I-----A-AA -A - I------ --
----- J
Hmt-Fiesbcial A C*.'t A
A A A A A I Scre isadt IFS credit Shadeto APor.
Cast I
Pu.blclco -
Iaun I a.8 42215 A
A IA 1 o t.aSWItoGa 1.30AMP 0.32lot0 -0.625
5 3595I
-------------I A A A----------I---I-------------I----A---
--------
-I--------A--------I------A--------
-5A-------
----
Casual
A I A A A A A 5
lflaaes-vae.14 lCerrascg 1.25 Por. L.ub. A A 5I74 Itrecy 116 Ior.Lieb
I
Sash I - A A A
A Al~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~5aM,Liabo .3955. Limb. 0.13Alof CS 0.04, I
24651
S A--- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - -- - -
- - - I -- - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - -
A
A -
------ --- --- --
---
-- ---
--I AA--
- I - -- - - -- - -- - -
Pisascial AI A A A A 55O
5C6radstL AbasHi f 93 orCDebt
I
Slate AI I A II
ItoPFS 0. Go INDLeb. 1i43 lofPFS -0.435 A 9 2
s S I I A
5 A------------------ --- -------- ;I---------II--------- A--------II ------- A-----I----I-A------I-------------
taPim nanasal I 5 A `IPri1at
I I SWat eadsal ACS s-edit IFS credit
I
ACs-edst-0 9
Sewealctor
I I A Shn, 16 4451 A Ato M OTBAtoM lOSAtoM2. 7.095ViD
0.43 1 A25.7125
S-----------I A A--A A Al--------------------------- --------- I---A
--I--------I-- ------I- ------I- ------S ----
E.a stna
5 forasast I A IPor Raaar.aa I
iPor Aesate I I
Sector I 5 I 5 iSa.inq 2.34
A lof CB -GM5 I lof e 1.24 5 5 -06 5
I I A A 5~---- -- - - -- - - - -- - -- - -I- - - -- - - -- - - -I
--- - - -I - - -- - - -- -I -- - - -- - -I- - - -- - - -I-- - - -A-- -I- - -- - - - AI - - - - - - -
- -
e.-issg- oteI A-- lco.t I I
lPrlvate lforign 55I I A A
I
( aeofpravioiie 5roma)
ISeOg- 4225 5 laSeusn 16 44 55e.isg -2 34 55 5 5AIt5
1305
A I 5 I 5 S Al I AI---------IA-------
'5 5
6.59:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-----------------
--------
246--------------- ---------------- -------
---
Seuhaga
-
Inwesatoent
-t 59 2.93 -1.34
Variabe eMa-
NM;S Aant Co. t Oparating Wc-Ies-a Tranafear
.a : Sisbaidee* L4.eb Nts-eanatsry
Li.b,lit'.e
Ist
Interste
NOI
.ab Nat OLbas-iabslitsme
NF
Sr.. anon-factor Se.ce
a.S
N Qua..Money
1st.: Znt.
iedsat
mgs-rtz OPi' U.s-act Poreign
lnveateent
n.
Nneteent laoLs-t For
Link Pore.as- L.sbilit.ea
Cone Coneiagtson. as.c.s.
tCdP E.pos-ta
of COoda and Non-faCLs- as-nCaa
-
8/11/2019 Easterly+1989
32/44
- 29 -
COLOMBIA
As As %
1. Non-Financial ublic ector (Government) 1986 of GDP 1987 of GDP -
----------------------------------------------------------------------- __----__-------------------
CurrentRevenue (millions of current esos) 1683884 23.63 1813635 20.86
DirectTaxes (Private total)) 136636 2.04 102069 1.16
Indirect axes 833804 12.44 1092431 12.44
Int. Rec'd. from No-Fin. riv. Soctor 9200 0.14 18800 0.21
Not Current ransfers rom Abroad
Not Operating urplus (nontax evonues) 640700 9.6G 648100 7.38
Not Subsidies -36636 -0.65 -47866 -0.55
Current Expenditures millions f current esos) 1123864 16.77 1444136 16.45
Interest 201800 3.01 331400 3.77
to Non-Financial rivate Sector 50200 0.76 77800 0.89
to External ector 161600 2.26 263600 2.89
Current Tronafers not) 372264 6.66 441736 5.03
Consumption xpenditures 649800 8.20 671000 7.64
Domestic 642187 8.09 669610 7.51
Imported 7613 0.11 11490 0.13
Govornment avings 460000 6.86 369400 4.21
Assot Accumulation 4E-774 7.25 678439 8.S9
Net CapitalTransf. and Gov't Lend 38674 0.68 69439 0.79
Fixod capital formation 47200 6.67 609000 5.80
domestic goods 357295 6.33 408366 4.66
imported goods 89906 1.34 100646 1.15
Financing 26774 0.38 209039 2.38
Net Central Bank Lending -168462 -2.61 120964 1.38
Net Banking System Lending 30967 0.46. 113714 1.30
Bonds to private ector 27299 0.41 27868 0.32
Net
Foreign ebt 135960
2.03 -63487 -0.61
Memo:Gov't net financing equirement 12800 0.19 -139600 -1.59
-
8/11/2019 Easterly+1989
33/44
-
30
-
a.
COLOMBIA
As As %
2. Central ank
(C8)
1986 of GOP
1987 of CDP
Change in Asnetu
231805
3.46 216871 2.46
Net Foreign
eserves entral
Sank
231073
3.46 -48692 -0.55
Not Central
ank Lending
to Gov't
-168462
-2.61
120964 1.38
Domestic
Credit to Private ector
-23722 -0.43 -2688
, -0.03
Credit to Banking System
65189 0.97 61346
0.58
Net other
assets (priv
ector)
132718
1.98
94952
1.08
Change in Liabilities
231805 3.48
215871 2.46
Change
in High Powered Monoy:
110429 1.74 166458
1.90
Currency
48376
0.73 101112
1.15
Bank
Reserves
67653 1.01 65346
0.74
Change
in Non-Monetary iab;lities: 101482 1.61 46788 0.52
Banks
66112 0.99
34286 0.39
Non-Financial
rivato
Sector
36360
0.53
11502
0.13
Change in Foreign Liabilities
13914 0.21
3625 0.04
Aso
As
%
3. Financial
ystem (FS) 1988
of CDP 1987
of CDP
Change In
Assets
631826
9.43
836C88
9.52
Net Credit o Covernment
30967
0.46 113714
1.30
Not Credit o Privato ector 467194 6.97 622342 7.09
Central
ank Reserves
67653 1.01 65346
0.74
International
eserves(net)
0
0.00 0
0.00
Non-Monetary
redit to CB
68112
0.99
3428C
0.39
Change in Liabilities
631826
9.43 835688 9.52
cross Credit
from CS
65189
0.97
51346 0.58
Quasi-Money
623682 7.81 696487 7.93
Not Long-Term
oreign orrowing
-38023
-0.67
-37757 -0.43
Change in
Net
Other Liabilitioes
o PR (residual)
81078 1.21
125613 1.43
-
8/11/2019 Easterly+1989
34/44
-
31 -
COL04IIA
As X
As
X
4.
Private
ector
(PR)
1986
ot
COP 1987 of GOP
Incoe
5340687
87.16
7853763
89.48
Non-Financial
rivate
ector
Value
Added
5268897
78.54
7006766
80.72
Interest
62531
0.78
,
81924
0.93
Int.
Rocolved from
Government
50200
0.76
77800
0.89
Int.
on Foroign
ssets
2331
0.03
4124
0.06
Current
ransfer
Receipts
524759
7.83
686071
7.80
From Government
372264 6.C5
441736
5.03
from Abroad (not)
162495
2.20
243336
2.77
Expenditures
5840087
87.16
7663763
89.46
Direct
Taxes
136636
2.04
102069
1.16
Interest
89936
1.34
66034
0.75
Int.
Paid to Public Sector 9200 *0.14 18800
0.21
Int.
Paid to
Rest of the
World
80736
1.20
47234
0.54
Private
Consumption
4791341
71.35
6242714
71.11
Domestic
4269600
63.71
5684965
63.39
Imported
611841
7.64
677759
7.72
Private
Savings
832774
12.43
1442936
16.44
Capital
Account
Financing
1488936
22.22
2267065
25.71
Privut.
avings
832774
12.43
1442936
18.44
Cov't.
Capital
Transfors
Net Lending
38674
0.68
69439
0.79
Credit
rom CS
(plus
not
other *ssets
f
CB)
103996
1.65
92264
1.06
Credit
froe Banking
System
467194
6.97
622342
7.09
Credit
rom
Abroad
-18611
-0.28
-7629
-0.09
Direct
oreign
Investment
64909
0.97
37702
0.43
Asset
Accumulation
1488936
22.22
2257055
25.71
Privat.
nvestmwnt
765682
11.28
1185429
13.50
domestic
goods
603876
9.01
961032
10-.83
imported
goods
161960
2.27
234396
2.67
Doestic
Government
DObt
27299
0.41
27858
0.32
Money
A Quasi
Money
672468
8.64
797699
9.08
Currency
48876
0.73
101112
1.15
Quasi Money
623682
7.81
696487
7.93
Non-Monetary
Assets
at CB
35360
0.53
11602
0.13
Non-Fin.
Private
Sector
Foreign
Assets
16926
0.26
109064
1.24
Net
Othor
Liabilities
of
FS
81078
1.21
125613
1.43
-
8/11/2019 Easterly+1989
35/44
-
32 -
COLOMBIA
As
i
As%
5.
Balance
of Payments (in local urrency) 1986 of GOP 1987 of GDP
Resource
salance
Exports (G#NFS)
1276129
19.03
1662693 18.94
Imports (GCNFS)
1107870
16.63
1491311 16.99
Intermediate
mports
346662
6.17
467020
5.32
Consumer Imports
619464
7.76
689249
7.85
Goods
73819
1.10
118393 1.36
Public
Sector
7613
0.11
11490
0.13
Private Sector
66206
0.99
106902 1.22
Non-factor
Services
446636
6.66
670867
6.so
Investment
Imports
241866
3.61
336042
3.82
Public
Sector
89900
1.34
100646
1.15
Private ector
151960
2.27
234396
2.67
Factor
ayments
256463
3.81
339409
3.87
Int.
Paymentby
Gov't
on For.
Debt
174717
2.61
292176
3.33
Int.Paid on PrivateFor.Oebt 80736 1.20 47234 0.54
Factor Income
26448
0.38
42699
0.49
Int. on Private
or.
issets
2331
0.03
4124
0.05
Int.Received
on
public
foreign ssets
23117
0.34
38675
0.44
Not Transfers
162496
2.28
243336
2.77
Net
Cur. Trans.
*ecd from Abroad by Cov't
0 0.00
0 0.00
Net Cur.
Trans. *ecd
from Abroad
by Priv.
Secto
162496
2.28
243336 2.77
Aggregate o -ign
xchange
arnings
1463072
21.68 1948627
22.20
Aggregate
oreign
xchange
ayments
1363324
20.34
1830720
20.86
Current
Account
eficit
-89749 -1.34
-117907
-1.34
Net L-T Extornal
orrowing
158260
2.36
-57646 -0.66
Not Gov't Foreign orrowing 136960 2.03 -53487 -0.81
Net Private oreign
Borrowing
-18611
-0.28
-7629
-0.09
Net CB Foreign
Borrowing
13914 0.21
3626
0.04
Not Banking ystem
Foreign
orrowing
-38023
-0.67 -37767
-0.43
Direct oreign Investment
64909
0.97
37702
0.43
Short-term
oreignassets
247909
3.70
60382
0.69
CB
ForeignReserves
231073
3.46
-48692
-0.5S
Nonfin
private ector
foreign
ssets
16926
0.26
109054
1.24
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36/44
- 33 -
COLOMBIA
As
As%
8. National ccounts 1986 of GOP 1987 of GOP
------------------------------ _--------------_-----------------------____----__-__---__--_--------
Total Value Added Income (GOP)
6701426 100.00 8779424 100.00
---------------------------------- _---------------
Non-Financial riv. Sector Income
6263397 78 64 7086758 80.72
Noet Operating urplus f Government
840700 9.66 648100
7.38
Indirect axes 833864 12.44 1092431 12.44
Lost Subsidies -38636 -0.66 -47886 -0.56
---------------------------------------------
_----
Government ometic consumption 542187 8.09 669610 7.51
Private omstic consumption 4269600 63.71
6654966 63.39
Govt invostment domestic)
367295 6.33 408365 4.85
Privato
investment domostic)
803876 9.01
961032 10.83
Exports NFS Interediste imports 928668 13.86 1196672 13.82
Total Expenditures GDP) 6701426 100.00 6779424 100.00
Consumption
6331141 79.55 6913714 78.75
Gov't Consumption 649800 8.20
671000 7.64
Private Consumption
4781341
71.36 6242714
71.11
Investment
1203026 17.96 1694429 19.30
Gov't
Investment
447200 6.67 509000
5.80
Private
Investment
76t825 11.28
1186429 13.50
Exports of Goods and
Nonfactor Services 1275129
19.03 1682693 18.94
Imports f Goods and Nonfactor ervices 1107870 16.63
1491311 16.99
Gov't Consumption mports 7613 0.11 11490 0.13
Private Consumption mports
66206 0.99 108902
1.22
Intermediate mports 346562 5.17 467020 5.32
Governmnt
Invostment Imports
89905 1.34 100645 1.15
Private Investment Imports 161960 2.27 234396 2.67
Nonfactor erviceos
445635
6.66 570867 6.50
GDP
6701426 100.00
8779424 100.00
-
8/11/2019 Easterly+1989
37/44
- - - -
a
- -
-
-
- -
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- 35
-
Table 2
ZIMBASI
T-Tablo for the Non Financial ublic Sector (Govornment)
Millions f Zimbabwe ollars, nd
as U
of
GOP
Sou rce Uses
C u r r * n t A c c o u n t
1m6?
1907
1937 1967
U
X
Governmnt Value Added CFY 435.00 4.4? Government onsumption Cg 2031.00 20.S9
Indir t Taxes TI 1 O71.004.10 tnterost ayments o
PR
1 O9o
852.00
9.62
Direct axes from PR TDpr 1507.00 15.50 Govt. Transfer* o PR GIR 750.00 7.71
Interest eccd. rom PR 16.lO h 0.00 0.00 tnterest aymento o ROW 1 E PE 226.00 2.32
Transfors o
Govt.
fr. Abr. E.NTRQO 115.00
1.13 Government aving
S -U69.00 -8.79
Subsidies 4 3.00 4.50
Total CA Gov. Sourceo 8423.00 85.25
Total CA Gow. Use 8423.00 36.26
C a p i t l A a c o
u n t
1997 190? 1"7 1"7?
U
S
Government avin
So -869.00 -8.79
tnvostment f Govt. Ig 851.00 8.61
Borrowing rom dDCg 66.00 0.63 nc.In direct lending o PR dCKTR 235.00 2.98
Borrowlng rom SI dCBSg 120.00 1.28
Borrowln9
from R dB 661.00 6.30
Borrowing rom Ro E.dBFg 156.00 1.62
Total Gov. Sources 686.00 6.54 Total Gov. Use 686.00 6.54
Note: Lower case d denotes first difference.
(1) SgomFY+TI-GSUB+TDpr.E.NTRGO-Cg-1.
g-OTR-Ei .BFg
(1') tq*dOlC(TRSg.dOCg.dCBSq.dBg.E .Bg
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- 36 -
Table 3
ZIMBABWE
T-Table or Control ank
Millions f Zimbsbwe ollars, nd
as X
of CDP
SourcesUses
C a p i t a l
A c c o u n t
1967 1967
1987 1987
Increase n vault cash dHbc -7.00 -0.07 Lending o Govt. dDCg 66.00 0.68
Increase
n
BS deposits dDBOScb 269.00 2.77 Lending o BS dDCbc 0.00 0.00
Increase n Currency dHpr 4.00 0.04 Lending o PR dDCpr -49.00 -0.60
Increase n iR deposits dDSPRcb 0.00 0.00 Accumulation f net reserves .dRcb 223.00 2.29
Foreign borrowing E.dNFScb -20.00 -0.27
Total CB Sources 240.00 2.47 TotalCS
Uses
240.00 2.47
(2') dDCg.dDCbsdDCpr+E
dRcb
a dNibs.dSISScb+dHpr
*dDBPRcbE.dNFNcb
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- 37
-
Table
Y-T.ble re
Blaking ystem
Millions f Zimtbl
dollars,
and
as
I of
w
Soureso
Uses
1W? 199?
199? 197
Sorrowing reo
CB dDCb. 0.00
0.00 Lending o Govt. dCBSS
120.00
1.23
Incresse In DemandDeposits
OEPpr 3t.00 0.97
Aceculoti.e f
Vault Cash dHMe
-7.00 -0.07
'Increase In quasi-Money
dM I90
0*
4.07
Accumulation of doolits at CB
DSOMb 269.00 2.77
Berrowing
froe OW
E.dIWbo 0.00 0.00 Lendlns e
Private ectr dCSpr
92.00 0.95
Acem. of nt foren r
*rves 1.dtbs 7.00 0.07
Total
OS Sources
461.00 4W9 Total 05 Use
461.00 4.95
(3')
dCBSI-Mbo.dDWSc
