East timor rail master plan slsh

PRESENTED BY LAFAEK BESI LDA.DEVELOPMENT COMPANYDili, [email protected]

EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN

LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 1/22



COVA LIMA

AINARO

BOBONARO

LIQUIÇA

DIL I

AILEU

MANUFAHI

MANATUTO

BAUCAU

VIQUEQUE

LAUTEM

ERMERA

OECUSSI

Tata Mai Lau(2963 m)

Fohorem

FatolulicLoloto

Bobonaro

Tilomar

Mape

Hato Builico

MaubisseLetetoho

Fatu Beso

Atabae

Bazartete

Railaco

Lacló Laleia

Turiscai

Hatudo

Alas

Fato Berliu

Barique

LaclutaLaclubar

Umaboco

Vermasse

Ossu

Venilale

Laga

Quelicai

Uatolari

BaquiaUato Carabau

Iliomar

Luro

FuiloroMaínal

Nítibe Oé Silo

ErmeraAileu

Los Palos

Viqueque

Maliana Ainaro Same

Seica

l

Laclo

Ciere

Sahe

n

Ti m

or

I s l a n

I N D O N E S I A

COVA LIMA

AINARO

BOBONARO

LIQUIÇA

DIL I

AILEU

MANUFAHI

MANATUTO

BAUCAU

VIQUEQUE

LAUTEM

ERMERA

OECUSSI Fohorem

FatolulicLoloto

Bobonaro

Batugade

Tilomar

Mape

Hato Builico

MaubisseLetetoho

Fatu Beso

Atabae

Bazartete

Railaco

MetinaroLacló Laleia

Turiscai

HatudoBetano

Alas

Fato Berliu

Barique

LaclutaLaclubar

Umaboco

Maubara

Vermasse

Ossu

Venilale

BucóliLaga

Quelicai

UatolariAliambata

BaquiaUato Carabau

Iliomar

Luro

LaivaiLautém

FuiloroMaínal

Com

Loré

Tutuala

Bé Aco

Nítibe Oé SiloKitrana

Sacato

Passabe

Atauro

Biquele

Berau

Oecussi

Liquiça

Ermera

Manatuto

Aileu

BaucauLos Palos

Viqueque

Maliana

Suai

Ainaro Same

DILI

JacoIsland

AtauroIsland

RomangIsland

WetarIsland

AlorIsland

RantarIsland

Ti m

or

I s l a n d

I N D O N E S I A

I N D O N E S I A

Seica

l

Laclo

Ciere

Sahe

n

T imor Sea

Savu Sea

W e t a r S t r a i t

To Naikliu

To Kuala

Lumpur

Cape Cutchá

Cape Tei

Cape de Loré

CapeCorimbala

Cape Tafara

CapeCalétec

Cape Deilubún

Tata Mai Lau(2963 m)

124° 125° 126° 127°

10°

9°

10°

9°

8°

124° 125° 126°

127°

TIMOR-LESTE

This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other informationshown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World BankGroup, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or anyendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

0 10 20

0 10 20 30 Miles

30 Kilometers

IBRD 33496

JAN

UA

RY 2005

T IMOR-LESTESELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS

DISTRICT CAPITALS

NATIONAL CAPITAL

RIVERS

MAIN ROADS

DISTRICT BOUNDARIES

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES

1. CAPTION

2. RATIONALE

3. NETWORK

4. TOURISM

5. ECONOMIC FRAME

6. DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME

7. COMPONENTS

8. FINANCE

9. COST ESTIMATES

10. SISTER PROJECTS



CAPTION

A ONE-TRACK RAIL BACKBONE FOR THE REPUBLIC OF EAST-TIMOR, ELECTRICITY POWERED, TO HANDLE PASSENGER AND CARGO TRAFFIC, AT MEDIUM SPEED.

THEME

“Timor-Leste will be an upper-middle income country no later than 2030 ... The economy will be modern and well diversified ... Timor-Leste’s tradition as a rural economy will have changed markedly ... Well over half of the population will live in urban areas, where the service economy flourishes”



RATIONALE

IT BEFALLS THE MAUBERE GOVERNMENTS THE DAUNTING TASK OF PROVIDING BETTER THAN ‘FREEDOM FROM WANT’ LIVING CONDITIONS TO A YOUNG POPULATION THAT WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS, TO BRING ABOUT AN AMIABLE AND INTELLIGENT POLIS.

TO MAKE IT TO 2030 ONE NEEDS TO

1. FATHER ONE MILLION MORE PEOPLE

2. BUILD FROM SCRATCH ENTIRE BRAND NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS

3. PUT IN PLACE MASSIVE PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE

AS FOR THE INVESTMENT, WE BEG TO OFFER A FRESH LINE OF THINKING:

RAIL INDUCED DEVELOPMENT



THE OTHER ONE MILLION TIMORESE TO COME, BORN TO A DIFFERENT TIME AND PACE, SHALL NOT BE UNEMPLOYED TOWNSHIP DWELLERS OR LIVE IN ISOLATED RURAL SUCOS FED BY TRADITIONAL SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE. IN 2030, A FEW WILL BE FARMERS RATHER THAN PEASANTS, MANY MORE WILL WORK IN INDUSTRY AND SERVICES, LIVING IN HOUSING SPRAWLS SPREAD AROUND CITY CENTERS KNITTED TOGETHER BY THE CENTRAL TRUNK RAILROAD.

INFRASTRUCTURE WORKS THAT ARE LABOUR INTENSIVE ATRACT PEOPLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT AREAS WHERE OTHER JOBS WILL SOON BE ON OFFER FOR THEM AND THEIR BETTER EDUCATED CHILDREN.

INVESTMENT MONIES TRICKLE DOWN THE ECONOMY TO STIMULATE DEMAND, SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT, MOVING PEOPLE AND IDEAS TO A GENTLER URBAN WAY OF LIFE.

WE HAVE TO BUILD THE FOUNDATION OF THIS VISION TODAY.



Roads play a vital role in the economy and country integration of Timor-Leste. Roads are the primary mode of transport, carrying about 90% of passengers, and 70% of freight.

BUT (ADB Project nr. 45094-01)

Recent surveys indicate that almost the entire core road network is in an un-maintainable condition. Only about 8% of the core road network was assessed to be in fair condition, about 22% in poor condition, and about 70% in very poor condition.

THEN, RAIL ...

1. Rail is more efficient as it reduces fuel consumption, is less environmentally polluting, and shortens travel time as well as being safer.

2. Transporting cargo by rail is 6 times more efficient compared to road (i.e. rail trains consume ±80% less fuel than trucks) and for passenger, rail is 20 times more efficient.

3. Motive energy tapped from the national grid (powered by natural gas and hydro sites), which is much cleaner than diesel or petrol used in cars and trucks.



...

4. The network allows for development to be more dispersed as people working in cities can live outside. Better rail services will benefit lower income groups and rural communities.

5. A cost-benefit study conducted by an international consultant, for the Electrified Double Track Project (EDTP) from Ipoh to Padang Besar, in Malaysia, estimated the EDTP would yield an Economic Internal rate of Return (EIRR) of 15%, above the benchmark 12% for transport projects.

6. This EIRR assessment measures the economic benefits over the economic costs of the project at the National level, focusing on the long-term viability.

7. Spin-offs to local services and industries will have multiplier effects that will greatly stimulate the economy (medium term GDP growth).

8. While the capital cost of electrifying track is high, electric trains and locomotives are capable of higher performance and lower operational costs than steam or diesel power. Electric locomotives, because they tend to be less technically complex than diesel-electric locomotives, are both easier and cheaper to maintain and have extremely long working lives.



NETWORK

CENTRAL LINE: BOBONARO - LOS PALOS

WEST LINE: CORRIDOR DILI-BETANO

EAST LINE: CORRIDOR BAUCAU - UATOLARI

to move people, crops, raw materials, parts and products in cheaper, faster and safer conditions

to airlift cargo (land produce and industrial products) from Baucau to the world



TOURISM

Lavish GSHOW*****1 train carriages negociate Timor scenic landscape to unfurl staggering mountain expanses and wide tropical ocean views to world class travelers.

On the way, a handful of boutique hotels sitting in unspoiled hideouts and historic cantonments are ideal stopovers.



1 Grand Sauros Hotel on Wheels

Maubara



4/29/12 3:55 PMImages of the World: East Timor - West of Dili to the Indonesian border: Maubara fort

Page 2 of 8http://worldpics.com.au/East_Timor/west/slides/2004122604.html

Photo by Ludo Kuipers, Sun Dec 26, 2004

Send this Photoas a Postcard:

ECONOMIC FRAME

“Since oil production began in early 2000, Timor-Leste has built a sizable petroleum fund that reached 886 percent of non-oil GDP in 2011 (IMF, 2012). The Petroleum Fund balance is expected to be $6.62 billion by end of 2010, which is up from $5.38 billion by end of 2009. The Petroleum Fund balance is estimated at $8.17 billion by the end of 2011, $9.82 billion by the end of 2012 and $14.60 billion by end of 2015.”

“Generating vigorous growth in the non-oil economy will require higher productivity in agriculture, the wider provision of growth-enhancing infrastructure (roads, electricity, telecommunications), a major improvement in the private sector enabling environment, and a quantum increase in the country’s skills base.”

“Capital expenditure remained low before 2011, but the government recently launched a strategic development plan that includes large infrastructure spending to be partially financed by withdrawals from the petroleum fund.”



...

“Since continued spending above ESI will erode the real value of the nation’s petroleum wealth, clear economic criteria for exceeding ESI should be developed (e.g., limiting such expenditures to investments that promise high economic rates of return). It would also be useful to examine the case for public borrowing, as this offers an alternative to drawing on the Petroleum Fund (provided that debt is on concessional terms, that appropriate management capacity is installed and that the cost of borrowing is less than the income foregone from Petroleum Fund assets) and expands domestic capacity through contracting out. It will also be important to crowd in private sector investment, thereby avoiding the inflation of factor prices.”

The projections for 2012/2013/2017 show Timor-Leste as being the only Developing Asian country to have consistent double digit GDP growth (World Economic Outlook, April 2012).



Chenab Bridge Project (KRP)



DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME

Demographic projections, calculated for this report, indicate that the Timorese population should increase by one-third by 2015 from its initial 2005 value, by four-fifths by 2025, and triple by 2050. (These results are similar to those in earlier projections from the National Statistics Directorate.) In an alternative rapid growth scenario, the population could quadruple by 2050. In the medium scenario, annual population growth rates start at 3.3 percent and fall slowly to 2.7 percent between 2005 and 2025. This will lead Timor-Leste to equal Indonesia's current population density by 2025. The population will age, but only slightly, with 40 percent still younger than 15 by 2025.

Some social sectors will be especially affected by rapid population growth. The urban population, now about one-quarter of the total, is growing much faster than the rural population. Urban growth is 4.7 percent a year and will decline only to 4.4 percent by 2025, by which time the urban population will be 2.5 times its present size. Beyond 2025, the urban population could expand even more dramatically. The rural population will grow more slowly, but will still increase 50 percent by 2025.

World Bank - Policy Note on Population Growth and its Implications in Timor-Leste (Oct.9, 2008)



PROJECT COMPONENTS

1. RAILS (CLDB)

2. EMBANKMENTS (CLDB)

3. BRIDGES (CLDB)

4. TUNNELS (CLDB)

5. STATIONS (CLDB)

6. FIELD LINES (CLDB)

7. ROLLING STOCK (PRIVATE)

8. NATIONAL GRID (GOVT.)

9. POWER STATIONS (GOVT.)

10. ACCESS ROADS (GOVT.)



FINANCE

COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) SHARES

Notional one dollar share capital 100% owned by the 13 districts. Voting rights and profit entitlements apportioned pro-rata of the last population census.

COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) BONDS

CLDB to issue perpetual callable state guaranteed bonds, placed by the Central Bank with the Petroleum Fund and other Timor based institutional investors. Interest payments indexed to the rail network access fees charged to rolling stock owner companies.

LEASEHOLD RIGHTS

All land occupied by the network and main (downtown) city centers close to it is held on 99 year leases from the State. Proceeds from the sale of such lease rights are used to fund the project (buy CLDB bonds).



COST ESTIMATES

500 km x US$10 mio = US$5 bn

Here are some sample new railway project costs as published in the railway trade press. The prices published by operators usually include all civil and equipment costs, project and financing costs.

Complete Rail Projects

Railway> Date Type of System Cost per km Distance

Madrid - Albacete 2010 High Speed line €9.57 million 304 kms

Yichang-Wanzhou, China 2011 Main line $9.1 million 377 kms

Haikou-Sanya, China 2010 High Speed line $10.0 million 308 kms



Yichang–Wanzhou Railway, an important railway linking Central China and West China, will be opened to traffic on November 20, 2010. When it opens, it will only take about 10 hours from Wuhan to Chongqing (compared with 18 hours before) by express trains, and about 21 hours from Chengdu to Shanghai (saving more than 10 hours than before).

Yichang–Wanzhou Railway stretches 377 kilometers (234 miles) from Yichang City, Hubei Province to Wanzhou District of Chongqing City, and joins Shanghai-Chengdu Railway, which passes Shanghai, Nanjing, Hefei, Wuhan, Yichang, Chongqing and Chengdu along the way. Because of the complex geologic conditions, Yichang–Wanzhou Railway is regarded as the most difficult railway project in China. It cost 60 million yuan per kilometer, which is twice as much as that of Qinghai–Tibet Railway. The total length of tunnels and bridges is about 279 kilometers (173 miles), taking up 74% of the whole line, hence the railway is said to be “the museum of tunnels and bridges”.

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SISTER PROJECTS

INDIA is undertaking one of its most challenging railway projects ever by building a line to connect Kashmir with the Himalayan foothills. The Kashmir Railway Project (KRP) is A 345 km extension of the Indian Railway network, being developed to provide an alternative and reliable transportation system to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. At the moment Kashmir is connected to the rest of India only by road.

Rails cross a total of over 750 bridges and pass through over 100 km of tunnels.

The estimated cost of the project is RS302 bn (US$5.7 bn).

MALAYSIA has undertaken the Electrification of Double Track Project (EDTP), which runs through four states in the northern peninsular region of Malaysia. The project involves the laying and electrification of a 329 km long double track near the existing single track that runs from Ipoh in Perak to Padang Besar in Perlis.

The project is part of a master plan to improve the public transport system in Malaysia. Road transport constitutes 89% (as of April 2008) of the transportation system in Malaysia, causing congestion on the expressway.

Estimated to cost RM16.5 bn (US$5.4 bn), the Ipoh-Padang Besar electrification is Malaysia's largest and costliest railway project.



MATE, WHAT HAVE YOU DONE?

FOLIN KARUN LIU KA BARATU?

EXPENSIVE FOR A TRAIN,

CHEAP FOR A COUNTRY!



Uatolari



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