East of Scotland European Partnership Commuting and migration Dundee Contemporary Arts 2nd February 2005
Dec 26, 2015
East of Scotland European Partnership
Commuting and migration
Dundee Contemporary Arts2nd February 2005
Chairman’s welcome and introduction
Mervyn Rolfe CBE
Chief Executive Dundee & Tayside Chamber of Commerce
Chairman ESEP
Programme
10.30 Commuting and migration patterns in the East of Scotland
John Lord, Director, yellow book ltd.
11.15 Commentary Greg Lloyd, Director of The Geddes Institute, University of Dundee
11.30 Group discussions (tea/coffee)12.15 Feedback and plenary discussion13.00 Lunch14.00 Close
Commuting and migration
• economic geography of the Programme area
• review of Census 2001 data– migration to/from the East of Scotland– growth in commuting to and from major cities– commuting patterns described and analysed
• area profiles posted on the website– plus a full version of this presentation– …and a short report
Economic geography
• jobs density• employment change• knowledge economy• residents’ qualifications• claimant count
Job density, 2002
Employment change 1998-2002
Tradable services and KBIs: % of total employment 2002
Tradable services & knowledge based industries: employment change 1998-2002
Residents’ qualifications
Claimant count rate (%)
Migration
• net migration 2000-2001• working age migration 2000-2001• in-migration from rest of UK• residents born outside Scotland
Net migration 2000-2001(to/from UK)
Net migration working-age 2000-2001 (to/from UK)
% of in-migration from rest of UK
% of residents born outside Scotland
Commuting
• commuting trends 1991-2001• commuting flows• cities and commuting• who commutes?
– occupation– Industry– status– personal characteristics
Increase in commuting 1991-2001
City In Out Netin
Aberdeen +15,600(+46%)
+2,600(+69%)
+13,000(+43%)
Dundee +5,900(+44%)
+2,100(+49%)
+3,800(+42%)
Edinburgh +12,500(+18%)
+5,400(+35%)
+7,100(+13%)
Commuting flows 2001
• the programme area• net flows by local authority• in-commuting and out-commuting• offshore employment
East of Scotland 2001
Total population 2,322,224
Working-age population 1,459,040
Total residents in employment 1,029,549
Total workforce 1,043,431
Net in-commuting from outwith region 13,882
Net commuting flows
-30,533
-14,695
-14,497
-12,378
-10,470
-6,320
-5,326
-4,041
-3,607
-3,135
1,452
12,982
43,099
61,810
-40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
Aberdeenshire
East Lothian
Fife
Midlothian
Angus
Falkirk
Clackmannanshire
Perth and Kinross
West Lothian
Moray
Stirling
Dundee
Aberdeen
Edinburgh
% of residents who work locally
% of workforce who live locally
% of workforce who are in-commuters
% of residents who out-commute to work
Residents working offshore
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Ab
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n C
ity
Ab
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hir
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An
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Cla
ck
ma
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an
sh
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Du
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Cit
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Ea
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Lo
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Ed
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Cit
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Fa
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Fif
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Mid
loth
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Mo
ray
Pe
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& K
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Sti
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We
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City travel to work areas
• Aberdeen• Dundee• Edinburgh• Stirling
% of residents working in Aberdeen
% of residents working in Dundee
% of residents working in Edinburgh
% of residents working in Stirling
Who are the commuters?
• occupation• industry• status• circumstances
Residents’ out-commuting by occupation
Higher professional Routine occupations
Working age residents: employment share by industry and place of work
Agriculture Manufacturing/mining
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Aber
deen
City
Aber
deen
shire An
gus
Clac
kman
nans
hire
Dund
ee C
ity
East
Lot
hian
Edin
burg
h Ci
ty
Falk
irk Fife
Mid
loth
ian
Mor
ay
Perth
and
Kin
ross Stirl
ing
Wes
t Lot
hian
working locally out-commuting
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Aber
deen
City
Aber
deen
shire An
gus
Clac
kman
nans
hire
Dund
ee C
ity
East
Lot
hian
Edin
burg
h Ci
ty
Falk
irk Fife
Mid
loth
ian
Mor
ay
Perth
and
Kin
ross St
irlin
g
Wes
t Lot
hian
working locally out-commuting
Working age residents: employment share by industry and place of work (2)
Wholesale, retail Financial intermediation
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Aber
deen
City
Aber
deen
shire An
gus
Clac
kman
nans
hire
Dund
ee C
ity
East
Lot
hian
Edin
burg
h Ci
ty
Falk
irk Fife
Mid
loth
ian
Mor
ay
Perth
and
Kin
ross Stirl
ing
Wes
t Lot
hian
working locally out-commuting
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Aber
deen
City
Aber
deen
shire An
gus
Clac
kman
nans
hire
Dund
ee C
ity
East
Lot
hian
Edin
burg
h Ci
ty
Falk
irk Fife
Mid
loth
ian
Mor
ay
Perth
and
Kin
ross St
irlin
g
Wes
t Lot
hian
working locally out-commuting
Workforce: dependency on in-commuters
Public administration and defence
Real estate and business activities
Workforce: dependency on in-commuters (2)
Financial services Hotels and restaurants
Commuters are more likely to be
• in high wage, high skill occupations• working in knowledge based sectors• residents of areas close to big cities• in a full time job• employees• male• car owners
Defining roles/assessing performance
StatusJobshub
Commuter
zone
Self-containe
d
High performer
Under achiever
Performance criteria
• migration trends• working age population• commuter flows• jobs density• unemployment rate• resident/workplace earnings
Earnings ratios
Residents : Scottish average
Workplace : residents
East of Scotland European Partnership
Commuting and migration
Dundee Contemporary Arts2nd February 2005
Commuting, Migration and City Regions: A Commentary
Greg Lloyd
The Geddes Institute
East of Scotland European Partnership
Globalisation and global city regions
• globalisation is the principal driver of change
• cities and city regions are the emerging centres of economic competitiveness and innovation
• this creates agendas around urban development and governance.
• defined contexts – markets, growth, limited regulation
Connectivity?
European spatiality• spatial planning – the new
agenda for planning and management of regional development
• context of the global economy, competitiveness and scale
• normative assertions around city regions – mono-centric and poly-centric forms
• European Spatial Development Perspective– enhancing competitiveness– regional balance– urban-rural relations
Refreshing those bits……city regions?
• Partnership Agreement
• Framework for Economic Development
• Smart Successful Scotland
• National Planning Framework
• city regions
But where?
• Mono-centric approaches– Derek Halden Consultancy,
2002– Experían, 2004 – David Begg and Ian
Docherty,2002
• Polycentric urban region – Nick Bailey and Ivan Turok,
2001 – Edward Glaeser, 2004
• Research evidence
......and how?
• context – economic performance and scale
• urban morphology and place competition
• institutions and resources
• regulation and history
• identities and cultures
Clash of Ideas?
• old geography to new space
– functional, formal …. or fuzzy edges?– boundaries or borderless?
• single government to multiple governance
• fixed identities or fluid imagery?
East of Scotland European Partnership
Commuting and migration
Dundee Contemporary Arts2nd February 2005