East Asian Security and Defence Digest 32

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Japan encircled?Japan is facing growing tensions in its claims for territorial sovereignty over several islands.

EAST ASIAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE

DIGEST nº32

EDITOR’S NOTE - TIAGO MAURÍCIOResearcher at Kyoto University and Orient Institute

After a short interregnum, East Asian Security and Defence Digest is back. Probably the most relevant piece of news that has since happened is the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) failure to reach a final statement at the end of its works in mid-July. Many analysts have been quick to denounce the influence of China in preventing a consensus being established at this 45-years old regional organization.

More broadly, general perceptions is that Beijing is upping the ante and stepping up its efforts to back its claims for sovereignty over several disputed territories. The ongoing crisis at the Scarborough Shoals is a case in point. But in the East China Sea, too, we a re see ing more a l a rm ing movements. Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

have been in the limelight for several consecutive weeks now, as both Japan, China and Taiwan come forth with affirmative statements on their legitimate right to sovereignty over these Japanese-controlled islands. It may be that nationalism is on the rise in East Asia, just as international organizations are loosing ground as providers of institutional mechanisms t o d e a l w i t h t h e s e p ro b l e m s diplomatically.

The following weeks should thus provide more useful insights into how these disputes ought to be settled. So far, the trend is for more tension to arise as a greater strategic alignment between the US and China remains absent.

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ASEAN at Risk?

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A look into recent Sino-US relations

“Undoubtedly, current Sino-US relations are far more cordial than they were between 1989 and 2001. But these relations are in many respects nothing more than a superficial friendship, and if at some point in the near future ci rcumstances resemble those in 1995/96, 1999 or 2001, another big dispute may yet arise. During the 1980s, the bilateral relationship was at an all-time high, and political ties between the two powers have never again been as close as during that period. The decade that followed however, presented almost a complete reversal. The Sino-US relat ionship is certainly prone to fluctuations that can come about any moment, suddenly and unexpectedly. And one thing is certain: until Beijing and Washington finally address the major issues which have been temporarily set aside (but as continued disputes suggest, never truly forgotten) since 11 September 2001, the ‘age of uncertainty’ will continue.”

“The past and present of Sino-US relations: avoinding a repeat of

1989-2001” (Miha Hribernik - The International Security Observer).

The charm of AirSea Battle might be deceiving

“AirSea Battle is seductive. Some officials believe that it may act as a competitive strategy that will lure rival states into self-defeating arms races with the richer and more technologically advanced United States. They also hope that AirSea Battle acts as a deterrent. If adversaries like China become convinced that they cannot overcome U.S. military superiority, they are unlikely to pick a fight in the first place. Most important, however, is the alluring idea that AirSea Battle can undue years of efforts by the Chinese to keep the United States out. China has invested greatly in solving one big operational problem. AirSea Battle is an appealing way to “unsolve” its operational breakthrough.”

“Three Paths to Nuclear Escalation with China” (Joshua Rovner - The National

Interest).

China throws its weight at ASEAN

“China's boasts about its military may soon be put to the test, as new tension with Vietnam in the South China Sea comes on the heels of a months-long standoff with the Philippines. How confident Chinese leaders are in the strength of their armed forces will play a big role in how far they push their territorial claims. It also will indicate whether Beijing is trying to bluff America into staying out of these controversies roiling Asia.

The question is whether the People's Liberation Army is a paper dragon, and the honest answer is mixed. In theory, the growth in the PLA has been startling since the 1990s. Starting from a ground-centric force relying on 1950s technology, and with very little modern air or sea capabilities, China's military is now the second-largest in the world.”

“ASEAN’s Failures on the South China Sea” (Joshua Kurlantzick - Asia

Unbound).

Renewing US primacy in the Asia-Pacific

“Abraham Denmark is right that US policy towards China is not containment, if we use 'containment' the way he does. He defines the word rather narrowly, to refer only to the specific set of polices adopted by America towards the Soviet Union. So for him to say that the US is not containing China is simply to say that US policy towards China is different from US policy towards the Soviet Union.

That is certainly true, but it doesn't get us very far, does it? After all, this is not a debate about words, but about policy. So let's put the word 'containment' to one side for a moment, and focus on what is happening in Asia today. Here is my

three-line version.”

“Containment? No. Primacy? Yes.” (Hugh White - The Lowy Interpreter).

Parallels between North Korea and Burma can only go so far

“The recent reforms in Burma have prompted d iscuss ions about the likelihood that North Korea might embark on a similar path. Both countries are poor, isolated, repressive, nationalistic and considered pariahs by the international community. Given the similarities, the reasons that compelled the Burmese military junta to change may also lead North Korea to do the same in the future.”

“North Korea is not Burma” (Steven Kim - East Asia Forum).

China is pulling some strings within ASEAN

“The summit, which was attended by twenty-seven foreign ministers, was intended to end with a decision regarding the simmering tension in the South China Sea, including the conflicting claims that China has with many ASEAN states. For the first time in forty-five years, however, there was no final communiqué at the conclusion of the summit. Furthermore, even though ASEAN foreign ministers announced that they intended to agree on a code of conduct in the South China Sea, no such code was produced.”

“China Trumps ASEAN in the South China Sea” (Nicholas Clement - Atlantic

Sentinel).

Understanding China's maritime strategy

“Creative involvement is described as a way for China to be more active in preserving its interests abroad by becoming more involved in other countries' domestic politics -- a shift from noninterference to something more flexible. China has used money and other tools to shape domestic developments in other countries in the past, but an official change in policy would necessitate deeper Chinese involvement in local affairs. However, this would undermine China's attempts to promote the idea that it is just another developing nation helping other developing nations in the

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face of Western imper ia l ism and hegemony. This shift in perception could erode some of China's advantage in dealing with developing nations since it has relied on promises of political noninterference as a counter to Western offers of better technology or more development resources that come with requirements of political change.”

“The Paradox of China's Naval Strategy” (Rodger Baker & Zhixing Zhang

- Stratfor).

Taiwan's frantic attempts to have diplomatic ties?

““We need a friend, OK? Everybody does. All presidents, except ours, are traveling worldwide. It’s important to receive friends to get to know us better. We only have 23 allies. But we would like to have more,” says Joanne Chang, a research fellow at the Institute of American and European Studies and former diplomat. “We don’t have the option of friends who can speak out for us. By coming to Taiwan to see our freedom and democracy, and the freedom of the press, we hope it will impress other countries to improve their own political systems.””

“Is Isolated Taiwan Propping Up Dictators?” (Cain Nunns - The Diplomat).

Much of the US' rebalance toward Asia depends on India's posture

“Although the US–India relationship reached a high note with the 2008 civilian nuclear deal, several sticking points remain. First, India’s nuclear liability law, designed to guard against a repeat of the Bhopal disaster, made the manufacturers of nuclear reactors liable for accidents caused by faulty equipment. This had a significant chilling effect on investment in India by US nuclear corporations such as General Electric and Westinghouse. The US government was concerned that, after all the hard work of gaining an exemption for India in the Nuclear Suppliers Group, US companies may not benefit from the Indian nuclear market. Second, the US i n s i s t e d t h a t I n d i a s i g n t h e Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and the Logistics Support

Agreement before it would agree to sell India sophisticated military technology, such as various secure systems on the C-130J and C-17 Globemaster III transport aircrafts. These agreements w o u l d h a v e i m p r o v e d s y s t e m s interoperability and logistical support between the two countries’ militaries, but India was reluctant to sign them, fearing it would become too closely tied to the US.”

“Rebalancing Asia: Panetta visits India” (Louise Merrington - East Asia

Forum).

A Chinese warship rounds aground, amidst tensions

“ t ’s ha rd to imag ine a more devastating setback to China’s campaign of aggressively asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea, short of hostilities. It’s one thing to push smaller countries around, it’s another to appear incompetent doing so.

The situation is reminiscent of the “Whiskey on the Rocks” incident, in which a Soviet Navy Whiskey-class submarine, S-363, ran aground in Swedish territorial waters. The difference of course is that China believes that poor 560 is in Chinese territory.

Efforts to retrieve the ship might lead to even more friction. China can’t afford to leave the ship there, no matter how “thoroughly stuck” it is, or it will become a m o n u m e n t t o C h i n e s e n a v a l incompetence. The ship weighs at least 1,500 tons, and will probably require several Chinese ships to retrieve, plus escorts. The Philippines believes the ship is in its Economic Exclusion Zone and thus in Philippine territory. Regardless, the Philippines is likely to let the Chinese retrieve their ship, and document the entire humiliating process for the entire world to see.”

“Jianghu on the Rocks” (Kyle Mizokami - Asia Security Watch).

Can the EU follow US' Asia Pivot?

“Europe used to be the navel of the world and European pol i t ics was synonymous with world politics. But the world is changing, and as Asian politics increasingly become world politics, what happens in the South China Sea is no longer a minor regional matter. For this reason, the EU should insist on the need for a solution based on international law. The EU need not take sides: it could act as an international broker, as it has in relation to peace in the Middle East. Going beyond bland declarations that ‘all sides show restraint’ will mean going beyond the EU’s current comfort zone on As ian secur i ty issues. Increased engagement will inevitably lead to setbacks and reactions from partners, and Europeans should be ready for this possible outcome.”

“The EU as an Asian partner” (Michael Mazza - The Diplomat).

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A hard look at the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute

“The growing rift between the Japanese national government and the Tokyo metropolitan government over the issue of nationalization of the Senkaku islands has attracted a lot of attention recently, both within and outside Japan. The whole issue was triggered by Tokyo G o v e r n o r S h i n t a r o I s h i h a r a ’s announcement in April 17 this year regarding the Tokyo metropolitan government’s planned move to purchase three of the five Senkaku islets, administered by the city of Ishigaki, Okinawa Prefecture. According to Ishihara, the Tokyo metropol i tan government had to “acquire the islands because the (central) government has not taken any action.” He further argued that this move “will secure the integrity of the Senkaku Islands.” However, on July 7, two months after Ishihara’s announcement, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda formally announced the national government’s own intention to purchase the Senkaku islands and nationalize them. Later, Noda’s special advisor Akihisa Nagashima met with Ishihara and conveyed to him the central government’s plan. However, Ishihara continued to insist that Tokyo should be allowed to purchase the Senkakus first

and then eventually transfer them to the state. The situation has deteriorated further with China and Taiwan’s strong reactions to the nationalization plan, as both have for long claimed sovereignty over the Senkakus.”

“Political Rift Deepens in Japan over Senkakus’

Nationalization”

(Pranamita Baruah - Indian Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis).

Learning to live with China's territorial claims

“As for China's putting a squeeze on Japan, it is due to China's expanding military reach, which no one, not even the Obama Administration and its pivot to East Asia, can do anything about. While China's PLA Navy is not directly involved in the current provocative actions in and around the Senkakus, the PLAN is the big stick looming behind the increasingly bold tests of the Japan C o a s t G u a r d ' s r e s o l v e t o h a l t unapproved fishing in the area and the swings through the contested zone by Chinese fisheries vessels ostensibly keeping tab on the actions of China-

based fishermen.”

“As Regards The Senkakus Dispute”

(Michael Cucek - Shisaku).

The potential for friction in South Korea-Japan relations is high

“The next 5 months could be one of high drama and tension in East Asia geopolitics due to various leadership transitions and elections. In South Korea we have already seen election year sensitivities coming to have real life policy consequences with the last-minute cancellation of the ACSA/GSOMIA military accords between Japan and the ROK. With the presidential election due to be held in December 2012 this might just be the first in a series of tensions between Japan and South Korea, or even between the ROK

JAPAN HIGHLIGHTS

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RELATIONS BETWEEN JAPAN AND TAIWAN HAVE GROWN BITTER IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO DISPUTES OVER THE SENKAKU/DIAOYU ISLANDS

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Tensions between Japan and its neighbours over territorial waters have risen

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and the US. North Korean leaders are also the masters of milking the US presidential season for concessions by simultaneously escalating tensions and negotiating for their deescalation.”

“Japan’s Regional Security Environment and Possibilities

for Conflict”

(Corey Wallace - Japan Security Watch).

"Cool Japan" and public diplomacy

“For the most of the Post-War period, Japan had primarily attracted attention of academia and journalism as an economic miracle and financial superpower. Recently, we can observe a proliferation of titles analyzing “Cool Japan” as cultural superpower, its pop culture as a soft power resource and its merits in success of Japan’s public diplomacy. The lack of clear distinction between the key concepts brought an easiness in giving credits to pop-culture in analyzing each of these. Its potential has been analyzed in terms of resources, but very little in terms of behavioral outcomes. The public diplomacy has to be analyzed as a medium for broadcasting these resources whose content is supposed to produce (or not) the soft power in a long-term. Can it be that the centrality given to the “Coolness” as a resource of Japan’s public diplomacy, and p o t e n t i a l l y s o f t p o w e r, h a s b e e n extrapolated from the broader context and oversimplified?”

“Does Coolness Merits Priority Place in Japan's Public

Diplomacy?”

(Aleksandra Babovic - JFPO).

Tokyo's Governor Is a powerful force pushing Senkaku's nationalization forward

“It was Ishihara who hilariously, in his own mind, at least, suggested that the new cub be named Sen-sen, with a later sibling to be called Kaku-kaku, in order to form the duo Sen-kaku, to needle, oh so very cleverly, the owners of the pandas the TMD, the proprietor of Ueno Zoo, is paying somewhere aroung 1 million USD a year to display, and highlighting Ishihara's suddenly favorite uninhabited islets -- the TMD seemingly not having enough far-flung uninhabited islands to keep him occupied.”

“Ishihara Nobuteru's Interesting Gambits”

(Michael Cucek - Shisaku).

An important event that largely passed unnoticed

“Two weeks ago, on July 3rd and 4th, representatives from 63 countries and 14 international organizations met in Sendai for the World Ministerial Conference on Disaster Reduction. The main goal of the event was to present to the international community some of the lessons learnt from March 11th 2011 and build up momentum for the third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2015, in which the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 will be revised. It started w i t h p l e n a r y s e s s i o n s a n d p a n e l discussions on the first day, then the next morning there were three simultaneous sessions in Ichinoseki (Iwate), Ishinomaki (Miyagi) and Fukushima city, and the final plenary was hold in Sendai in the late afternoon. Plenty of side events were organized, in which leading INGOs and local NGOs, as well as research institutes, companies and government offices presented their findings and projects around disaster planning and management—including a day-long Big Tent Google event—all of which deserve a post on their own.”

“Building a Post-Hyogo Framework for Action: As Soft

as Power Can Be”

(Oscar Gómez - JFPO).

A military clash between Japan and China may loom over the horizon

“These trends can be explained in one simple word: China. The People’s Republic quadrupled its military budget in the first decade of the 2000s, a fact evidently not lost on a growing chunk of the Japanese public. Thirty-two percent of the Japanese now view China as a “military threat” to their country—up from only 8 percent in 2001. Forty-nine percent, meanwhile, view China’s client state, North Korea, as a direct threat. More generally, 84 percent of the Japanese now have an “unfavorable” opinion of China; 70 percent cite “territorial issues” as the main reason. Another poll finds that 72 percent of the Japanese “don’t trust” China—a reasonable position, given not only the territorial disputes, but also Beijing’s propensity for deflecting the anger of its restive population of unmarriageable young men by whipping up violent anti-Japanese sentiment.”

“Japan’s New Islands?”

(Ethan Epstein - The Weekly Standard).

The bureaucracy still holds some reins

“Granted, when it first came to power, the DPJ tried to break up the cozy relationship between business, bureaucrats, and politics, in favor of a system where politicians would be the policymakers. Toward that end, it formed a panel for budget screening (jigyō shiwake) that was successful in bringing an end to some wasteful spending in the public sector—an effort that won the government public praise. In the end, though, the DPJ proved no match for the counterattack launched by the bureaucracy, which could draw on the power of its own specialized knowledge, and gradually the bureaucracy gained hegemony over the policymaking process. In parallel with this development, industry also teamed up with the bureaucracy, and both parties are now snuggling up to DPJ legislators.”

““Iron Triangle” of Policymaking Persists Under DPJ

Government”

(Masuzoe Yoichi - Nippon.com).

Assessing trilateral relations between Japan, South Korea and US

“The South Korean foreign ministry identifies (in Korean) the North Korean nuclear and missile threat as the backdrop for its recent attempt at a ROK-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement. And while that challenge alone should be sufficient to inspire closer Japan-South Korea security ties, the U.S. rebalancing effort serves as yet another impetus. In line with its rebalancing strategy, the United States in recent months has undoubtedly pushed for greater cooperation between its two all ies. However, a worsening atmosphere between the two neighbors over comfort women, disputes over the official designation of the Sea of Japan/East Sea, and ongoing sovereignty disputes over Tokdo/Takeshima Island (or the Liancourt Rocks, for those who advocate strict naming neutrality) has had this U.S. push come into conflict with nationalists in both countries that are staunchly resisting the need to contain old disputes and bui ld “future-oriented relations.””

“U.S. Rebalancing and Japan-South Korea Defense

Cooperation”

(Scott Snyder - Asia Unbound).

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“Beware a September surprise”

“Spies and their watchers in a tense war of nerves”

“US F-16 crashes in Pacific; pilot rescued”

“Carter Praises Japan-based Sailors’ Security Role”

“Defense chief in favor of Tokyo officials landing on Senkaku Islands”

“Tokyo to seek permission to land on Senkakus”

“Senkakus owner remains sold on selling islands to Tokyo”

“Govt reveals plans for Senkaku Islands”

“Family owning Senkaku Islands determined to sell land to local gov't”

“Ishihara may sue for isle trip”

“Senkaku owners prefer selling islets to Tokyo, hope all nations can benefit”

“Ishihara attaches Senkaku strings”

“Chinese boats enter waters off Senkakus ”

“Senkaku talks with China end in stalemate”

“Envoy to China returns over Senkaku isles row”

“Japan wants China informed of Senkaku plan accurately”

“Row flares between Japan, China over embassy's firebombing in Seoul”

“Envoy returns over isle row”

“U.S. think tank urges faster work to move Okinawa marines to Guam”

“Noda: Japan has no choice in Osprey deployment plan”

“Japan PM criticized over U.S. deployment of Osprey”

“Osprey faces challenges before full operations begin in October”

“Ospreys to arrive at Iwakuni on Monday”

“U.S. wants full Osprey operations in Japan in Oct.: Pentagon's No. 2”

“Editorial: Noda should speak out to U.S.

JAPAN NEWS CLIPS

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about Osprey deployment”

“Local opposition heightens before Osprey deployment Mon.”

“Protests growing against deployment of Osprey in Japan”

“Local govts told of Ospreys' arrival”

“Ospreys to arrive at Iwakuni base on Monday”

“Survey: No governors support Osprey deployment”

“U.S. Osprey involved in 58 mishaps; opposition to deployment rises”

“North Korea speculation rampant in Seoul”

“96% aware of N. Korea abductions”

“Yoroku: World must watch North Korea's actions, not its internal political dramas”

“SDF peacekeeping faces scrutiny over scope of missions”

“Japan to end Haiti SDF mission”

“SDF peacekeeping faces scrutiny over scope of missions”

“GSDF engineers to leave Haiti in 2013”

“De facto N. Korea embassy in Japan to be auctioned for loan recovery”

“Japanese troops deliver aid, search for bodies, perform rescue operations”

“Japan's low-profile military steps up during flood rescue”

“Self-Defense Force troops bring aid to Kyushu flood victims”

“SECNAV Presents Awards to JMSDF Leaders”

“MacArthur's SCAP office to be shown to the public”

“Russia frees two men seized near disputed island”

“Japan targets ASEAN ties amid Chinese friction”

“EDITORIAL: MSDF’s suicide document cover-up betrays public trust”

“U.S. deputy defense chief to visit Japan”

“White paper rings alarm over China”

“http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120715002028.htm”

“Govt mulls easing SDF arms rules abroad”

“Djiboutian officials tour Japanese naval ship”

“World sea piracy falls in first 6 months of 2012”

“Military cooperation with Japan should be approached as part of pan-regional effort”

“EDITORIAL: More debate needed on defense cooperation with U.S.”

“MSDF ships to join drill in Persian Gulf”

“Building a Post-Hyogo Framework for Action: As Soft as Power Can Be” by Oscar Gómez

“Does Coolness Merits Priority Place in Japan's Public Diplomacy?” by Aleksandra Babovic

“JFPO's New Member: Miha Hribernik” by the Founders

“JFPO's New Member: Oscar Gómez” by the Founders

On our website this

week

EAST ASIAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE DIGESTEditor: TIAGO MAURICIOEditor’s Mailbox: mauricio.tiago.47x(at)st.kyoto-u.ac.jpKyoto, Japan

East Asia Security and Defence Digest covers expert analysis and news highlights on East Asian Security and Defence Affairs.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of JFPO.

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