EARSeL Mykonos, 24-25 May 2012 EARSeL 4th Workshop on Remote Sensing and Geology, Mykonos, 24-25 May 2012 Time Series Satellite Data for Seismic Precursors.

EARSeLEARSeL 4th Workshop on Remote Sensing and Geology, Mykonos, Mykonos,

24-25 May 201224-25 May 2012

Time Series Satellite Data for Seismic Precursors

Assessment

Maria ZoranMaria Zoran-- National Institute of National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics ,Remote R&D for Optoelectronics ,Remote Sensing Department, Bucharest-Sensing Department, Bucharest-

Magurele, RomaniaMagurele, [email protected]@inoe.inoe.ro;;

TIME SERIES MULTISENSOR SATELLITE DATATIME SERIES MULTISENSOR SATELLITE DATA•Remote sensing satellites provide data useful in seismic Remote sensing satellites provide data useful in seismic precursors assessment and disaster managementprecursors assessment and disaster management : : -mapping and monitoring of seismic hazards, -mapping and monitoring of seismic hazards, -assessment of damage extent of strong earthquakes.-assessment of damage extent of strong earthquakes.•A seismotectonic zone ,  capable of generating earthquakes A seismotectonic zone ,  capable of generating earthquakes can be investigated by remote sensing data:can be investigated by remote sensing data:-to emphasize geomorphorogical features -to emphasize geomorphorogical features -to identify faulting zones responsible of seismic events -to identify faulting zones responsible of seismic events generation.generation.•Remote sensing analysis and field studies of active faults Remote sensing analysis and field studies of active faults provide a geologic history better than instrumental and provide a geologic history better than instrumental and historic records.historic records.GPS NETWORK DATAGPS NETWORK DATAIntegrated GPS Network are providing precise time-Integrated GPS Network are providing precise time-dependent information on how the earth’s crust responds to dependent information on how the earth’s crust responds to earthquakes and plate tectonic processes.earthquakes and plate tectonic processes. SYNERGY use of satellite, GPS, and in-situ field data SYNERGY use of satellite, GPS, and in-situ field data

SEISMIC PRECURSORSSEISMIC PRECURSORS

Nonprecursory informationNonprecursory information predicts the earthquakes predicts the earthquakes expected from the previously recorded rates of expected from the previously recorded rates of earthquakes- Long-term earthquake prediction earthquakes- Long-term earthquake prediction (probabilistic or deterministic) has extensively used (probabilistic or deterministic) has extensively used earthquake rates for nonprecursory iformation from earthquake rates for nonprecursory iformation from geologic and geodetic information. geologic and geodetic information.

Short-term earthquake predictionShort-term earthquake prediction is based on analysis of is based on analysis of foreshocks and nonseismic potential precursors-considers foreshocks and nonseismic potential precursors-considers ground water changes, strain rates and geoelectrical and ground water changes, strain rates and geoelectrical and geomagnetical phenomena related to earthquakes are geomagnetical phenomena related to earthquakes are causal precursors. causal precursors.

Predictive precursorsPredictive precursors assume a causal relationship with assume a causal relationship with the mainshock and provide information about the the mainshock and provide information about the earthquake hazard better than achievable by assuming a earthquake hazard better than achievable by assuming a random distribution of earthquakes. random distribution of earthquakes.

Earthquake predictionEarthquake prediction has two potentially compatible but has two potentially compatible but distinctly different objectives: distinctly different objectives: (a) phenomena that provide(a) phenomena that provideinformation about the future earthquake hazardinformation about the future earthquake hazard useful to useful to those who live in earthquake-prone regions and (b) those who live in earthquake-prone regions and (b) phenomena causally related to the physical processes phenomena causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a faultgoverning failure on a fault that will improve our that will improve our understanding of those processes.understanding of those processes.

Earthquake precursors differentiated by the characteristic lead-time between precursor and the strong earthquake:

long-term (LT)-tens of years; intermediate-term (IT)- years; short-term (ST)- months;

immediate (Im)- days and less. Possible mechanism for the generation of electromagnetic waves in

the lithosphere was identified through the microfracturing process

of rocks responsible for geoelectric and geomagnetic fields anomalies as well as development of strong ionospheric perturbations preceding strong earthquakes.

This paper aims at investigating : the TEC ionospheric and solar geomagnetic precursors

during one of the greatest major earthquake in Tohoku area, Japan, 11th March 2011, based on time series solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric Total Electron Content data provided by NOAA, WDC Australian, Space Environment Information Service Japan, British Geological Survey and World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto.

TEST AREA and Tohoku-Oki earthquake DATATEST AREA and Tohoku-Oki earthquake DATA 11 March 2011 14:46 JST(05:46 UTC) ; 11 March 2011 14:46 JST(05:46 UTC) ;

Moment magnitude Moment magnitude MMw 9.0 occurred w 9.0 occurred on the Japan Trench plate boundary on the Japan Trench plate boundary off the Eastern shore of Northern off the Eastern shore of Northern Honshu, followed by :Honshu, followed by :

the largest tsunami on Japan Pacific the largest tsunami on Japan Pacific coast, affecting a 400–500 Km area coast, affecting a 400–500 Km area

Fukushima NPP colapse and radioactive Fukushima NPP colapse and radioactive cloud over Pacific, Europe…cloud over Pacific, Europe…

Epicenter was located at 38.1 °N, 142.9 Epicenter was located at 38.1 °N, 142.9 °E, off the Pacific coast of the North-°E, off the Pacific coast of the North-Eastern part of the Japanese main Eastern part of the Japanese main land (Tohoku Region), at depth of 24 land (Tohoku Region), at depth of 24 km and about 130 km East of Sendai km and about 130 km East of Sendai town and 373 km North-East of town and 373 km North-East of Tokyo.Tokyo.

The main shock was preceded by a The main shock was preceded by a foreshock sequence lasting two days. foreshock sequence lasting two days. The largest of these was an The largest of these was an MMw 7.3 w 7.3 earthquake on 9 March 2011earthquake on 9 March 2011

AFTERSHOCKSAFTERSHOCKS (as of 30 April 2012) (as of 30 April 2012)M 7.6 at 11 March 2011 15:15 JST (06:15 UTC);M 7.6 at 11 March 2011 15:15 JST (06:15 UTC);Number:6(M 7 or greater);102(magnitude 6 or greater);671(M 5 or greater)Number:6(M 7 or greater);102(magnitude 6 or greater);671(M 5 or greater)

greater)or 5 1(Mgreater)67or 6 e2(magnitudgreater)10or 7 e6(magnitud:UTC)Number 15:(06 JST 15:15 2011 March 11at 7.6 Magnitude:tershockLargest Af

2012) April30 of (as sAftershock

Global tectonic activity mapGlobal tectonic activity map

DATA USED DATA USED World Data Centre (WDC)World Data Centre (WDC) for Solar-Terrestrial Science (STS) for Solar-Terrestrial Science (STS)

Australia (Australia (http://http://www.ips.gov.au/World_Data_Centrewww.ips.gov.au/World_Data_Centre), for GPS ), for GPS Vertical TEC Global Maps ;Vertical TEC Global Maps ;

National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA NOAA validated on ionosonde data ( validated on ionosonde data ( http://http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ctipe/TEC.htmlhelios.swpc.noaa.gov/ctipe/TEC.html), and ), and

Ionospheric and Atmospheric Remote SensingIonospheric and Atmospheric Remote Sensing web site web site http://http://iono.jpl.nasa.goviono.jpl.nasa.gov . .

Geomagnetic and solar data have been also provided by Geomagnetic and solar data have been also provided by Space Environment Information Service JapanSpace Environment Information Service Japan ( (http://http://hirweb.nict.go.jphirweb.nict.go.jp//) as well as by ) as well as by InteInternationalrnational R Real-time eal-time MagMagnetic Observatory netic Observatory NetNetwork ( INTERMAGNET) at (work ( INTERMAGNET) at (http://www.intermagnet.orghttp://www.intermagnet.org););

British Geological SurveyBritish Geological Survey http://http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.ukwww.geomag.bgs.ac.uk// , and , and World Data Center for Geomagnetism, KyotoWorld Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto

http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jphttp://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp. . MODIS Terra/AquaMODIS Terra/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity ( Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity ( LSTLST

/E ) /E ) [[http://http://daac.ornl.gov/MODIS/modis.htmldaac.ornl.gov/MODIS/modis.html ; ;Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan Meteorological Agency ( (http://http://www.jma.go.jpwww.jma.go.jp). ). http://www.kakioka-jma.go.jp/ http://www.kakioka-jma.go.jp/

Space-based geodetic measurementsSpace-based geodetic measurements of the solid of the solid Earth with the Global Positioning System in Earth with the Global Positioning System in synergy with ground-based seismological synergy with ground-based seismological measurements, interferometric synthetic aperture measurements, interferometric synthetic aperture radar data, high-resolution digital elevation radar data, high-resolution digital elevation models as well imaging spectroscopy (e.g. using models as well imaging spectroscopy (e.g. using ASTER, MODIS and Hyperion data) are ASTER, MODIS and Hyperion data) are contributing significantly to seismic hazard risk contributing significantly to seismic hazard risk assessment.assessment.

Space-time anomalies of Earth’s emitted radiationSpace-time anomalies of Earth’s emitted radiation (radon in underground water and soil , thermal (radon in underground water and soil , thermal infrared in spectral range measured from satellite infrared in spectral range measured from satellite months to weeks before the occurrence of months to weeks before the occurrence of earthquakes etc.), ionospheric and earthquakes etc.), ionospheric and electromagnetic anomalies have been interpreted, electromagnetic anomalies have been interpreted, by several authors, as pre-seismic signals .by several authors, as pre-seismic signals .

IIonosphereonosphere (90km-1000 km) is subjected (90km-1000 km) is subjected to a number of different forces from both, to a number of different forces from both, below and above the ionosphere, the below and above the ionosphere, the major impact being due to solar forcingmajor impact being due to solar forcing

Atmospheric perturbations induced by Atmospheric perturbations induced by earthquakesearthquakes, volcano eruptions, weather , volcano eruptions, weather fronts and nuclear explosions can induce fronts and nuclear explosions can induce signatures in the ionospheric plasma signatures in the ionospheric plasma density by density by atmospheric–ionospheric-atmospheric–ionospheric-lithospheric coupling processeslithospheric coupling processes. .

EQ atmospheric signals precursorsEQ atmospheric signals precursors

Solar and geomagnetic conditionsSolar and geomagnetic conditions

The Dst index represents the axially symmetric disturbance The Dst index represents the axially symmetric disturbance magnetic field at the dipole equator on the Earth's surface. magnetic field at the dipole equator on the Earth's surface. Some disturbances in Dst can be related with earthquakeSome disturbances in Dst can be related with earthquake

Time series Atmospheric Electric Field –Kakioka stationTime series Atmospheric Electric Field –Kakioka station 2-15 March 2011 2-15 March 2011

Time-series Vertical GPS TECTime-series Vertical GPS TEC Global Maps 7-12 March 2011Global Maps 7-12 March 2011

GPS TEC variation during 23 February- 15 March 2011GPS TEC variation during 23 February- 15 March 2011TEC enhancement in the ionospheric electron content several TEC enhancement in the ionospheric electron content several

days before earthquake , strong increase one day prior Eq.days before earthquake , strong increase one day prior Eq. Possible em emissioms ULF to VLF frequency from the Possible em emissioms ULF to VLF frequency from the epicenter to a very large radius area, propagation to the epicenter to a very large radius area, propagation to the

ionosphere possibly generates the TEC anomaliesionosphere possibly generates the TEC anomalies..

Land Surface Temperature (LST) and AnomalyLand Surface Temperature (LST) and Anomaly

Test areas : Eq epicenter (a); Sendai region (b); Test areas : Eq epicenter (a); Sendai region (b); Fukushima (c); Tokyo (d)Fukushima (c); Tokyo (d)

a) b) c) d)a) b) c) d)

LST variation during 1 January- 30 March 2011 near LST variation during 1 January- 30 March 2011 near 11 March Tohoku earthquake epicenter 11 March Tohoku earthquake epicenter

Air Temperature Anomaly over JapanAir Temperature Anomaly over Japan

JAPAN Year 2011 January February March

Northern

Japan

Eastern

Japan

Western

Japan

Okinawa and

AmamiTime-series of 5-days running mean air temperature anomaly

Time series 10-day mean air temperature and anomaly over Time series 10-day mean air temperature and anomaly over

21 February -21 March 2011, on the base period of normals 1981-2010 21 February -21 March 2011, on the base period of normals 1981-2010 around Japan.around Japan.

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION From 7 March - 10 March, the geomagnetic field From 7 March - 10 March, the geomagnetic field

was at was at quiet to unsettled levelsquiet to unsettled levels with isolated with isolated high latitude active periods. high latitude active periods.

During the entire analyzed period 7 March – 14 During the entire analyzed period 7 March – 14 March 2011, March 2011, solar activity ranged from low to solar activity ranged from low to high levels decreasing again to low levelshigh levels decreasing again to low levels..

Quantitative analysis of TEC data before and Quantitative analysis of TEC data before and during the occurrence of earthquake shows the during the occurrence of earthquake shows the consistent consistent enhancement in the ionospheric enhancement in the ionospheric electron content several days before electron content several days before earthquakeearthquake, , with a strong increase one day priorwith a strong increase one day prior Tohoku earthquake. Tohoku earthquake.

The emission of electromagnetic radiations from The emission of electromagnetic radiations from ULF to VLF frequency range from the epicenter ULF to VLF frequency range from the epicenter to a very large radius area and their subsequent to a very large radius area and their subsequent propagation to the ionosphere possibly propagation to the ionosphere possibly generates the TEC anomalies.generates the TEC anomalies.

The analysis of all available geospatial data The analysis of all available geospatial data shows evidence of a shows evidence of a thermal build up near the thermal build up near the epicentral areaepicentral area of 11 March Tohoku earthquake. of 11 March Tohoku earthquake.

Thank You !Thank You !