Early Warning Systems - Broward County Public … Warning Systems? My school is not familiar with EWS My school is familiar with EWS My school collects EWS data My school utilizes

Early Warning Systems

Presented by Bureau of School Improvement

Differentiated Accountability Region V Summer 2013

BSI 2013 Summer Academy 1

How familiar is your school with Early Warning Systems?

My school is not familiar with EWS My school is familiar with EWS

My school collects EWS data My school utilizes EWS for problem solving and to inform decision making

2 BSI 2013 Summer Academy

1. What is an EWS?

2. Why do we need an EWS? 3. What data is used for an EWS? 4. How do I organize the data to identify systems in need

of intervention? 5. How do I use student level data to identify students

who are off track and possible system issues?


EWS Critical Questions

What is an EWS?


EWS Critical Question

An Early Warning System

A System which:

Utilizes predictive data

Identifies off-track or at-risk students

Targets interventions

Reveals patterns and root causes Florida PS/RtI Project


Organizational Structure of a School

Discuss academic and behavioral

outcome data and problem solve issues that arise from data

analysis.

Discuss data and problem solve issues that arise from data analysis.

Discuss students at-risk for academic and

behavioral outcomes, put interventions in

place and monitor interventions.

Discuss academic and behavioral outcome data, core implementation and appropriateness of resources.

Content Based Teams

Grade-Level Teams

PBS, Literacy Leadership,

Parent and Community

Teams

Planning for Implementation:


SBLT

BSI 2013 Summer Academy

7

Week 0 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Data

Review:

-FCAT

-EOY

Data

Incoming

Freshmen

Behavior

-ODR

-ISS

-OSS

-PBS

Implementation

EWS

-9th

Grade

-Schoolwide

-Credits

-GPA

-Course

Failures

Attendance

-Absence

-Tardies

Math

-Course

Failures

-Alg 1

-Science

-Instructional

Delivery

Reading/Literacy

-Model Structure

-Fidelity

-Assessments

-Instructional

Delivery

Attendance

-Absence

-Tardies

Meeting

times /

location:

Wednesday

2:40-3:25

Wednesday

2:40-3:25

Wednesday

2:40-3:25

Wednesday

2:40-3:25

Wednesday

2:40-3:25

Wednesday

2:40-3:25

Meeting

dates:

7/27/11-

7/30/11,

8/24/11,

8/31/11

10/5/11

11/16/11

1/18/12

2/29/12

4/18/12, 5/30/12

10/12/11

11/30/11

1/25/12

3/7/12

4/25/12,

6/6/12

9/7/11

10/19/11

12/7/11

2/1/12

3/14/12

5/2/12

9/14/11

10/26/11

12/14/11

2/8/12

3/21/12

5/9/12

9/21/11

11/2/11

1/4/12

2/15/12

4/4/12

5/16/12

9/28/11

11/9/11

1/11/12

2/22/12

4/11/12

5/23/12

SBLT Data Review Calendar

HO 1

Why do we need an EWS?



Consider This… A large national sample of 8th grade students were asked if they would graduate within four years of entering high school and 98% predicted that they would. The same students were asked the same question after the first semester of their 9th grade year.

What percentage reported a belief that they would graduate in 4 years?

Source: Florida PS/RtI Project


60%

Turn and Talk

• Turn and talk with your table partners.

– Why do you think such a drastic change in students’ perception occurred?

– What implication does this have for you as leaders at a: High school? Middle school? Elementary school?

– WHAT can we do about this?


Picture

a high school

freshman class of

30 students…


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fihzt1NBkP8

Why is EWS important to a School?

Research shows that students at risk of falling off track could graduate on time if they were provided with the appropriate supports early enough and if those supports were sustained.

Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005, June).



High School Attendance

What data is used for an EWS?



2013-2014 School Improvement Plan Early Warning Indicators

What are the primary early warning indicators for elementary, middle, and high school?


Students who:

• miss 10 percent or more of available instructional time,

• are retained, pursuant to s. 1008.25(4)(c), F.S.,

• are not proficient in reading by third grade,

• receive two or more behavior referrals, and/or

• receive one or more behavior referrals that

lead to suspension, as defined in s.1003.01(5), F.S.

School Improvement Plan( 2013)

Elementary School SIP EWS-Indicators

17

Academic: Elementary

16% of children who are not reading proficiently

by the end of third grade do not graduate from high

school.

This is 4 times greater than the non-graduating rate

of proficient readers.

Hernandez, D. J., (2012)


Academic: Elementary

85% of all juvenile offenders have reading problems.

Texas uses fourth grade Reading scores to project the

number of prison cells needed 10 years later.

Cohen, S. , (2012)


Students who:

• miss 10 percent or more of available instructional time,

• fail a mathematics course,

• fail an English Language Arts course,

• fail two or more courses in any subject,

• receive two or more behavior referrals and/or,

• receive one or more behavior referrals that lead to suspension, as defined in s.1003.01(5), F.S.

School Improvement Plan (2013)

Middle School SIP EWS-Indicators

Middle School Of the 6th grade students who

missed 20% of time

and failed Math or English,

only 25% of the students graduated.

Of the 6th graders who received one or more unsatisfactory final behavior marks,

only 25% of the students graduated.

Pinkus, L. (2008, August)


Middle School 8th graders

3 out of 4 students who dropped out of middle school

failed mathematics or English

and

had an attendance rate below 80%.

Pinkus, L. (2008, August)


Students who:

• miss 10 percent or more of available instructional time

• ninth grade with one or more absences within the first 20 days

• ninth grade who fail two or more courses in any subject

• grade point average less than 2.0

• fail to progress on-time to tenth grade

• receive two or more behavior referrals

• receive one or more behavior referrals that lead to suspension, as defined in s.1003.01(5), F.S.

School Improvement Plan. (2013)

High School SIP EWS-Indicators

Attendance: High School 9th graders

Missed 10 percent of time

63% graduated

Missed 20 percent of time

31% graduated

Balfanz, R., Byrnes, V., & Fox, J. (2012, December 12)

(n= 181,897)


High School Course Failure 9th Graders

0 course failures

85% graduated

1 course failure

66% graduated

Balfanz, R., Byrnes, V., & Fox, J. (2012, December 12).


High School: Behavior 9th Graders

1 suspension

52% graduated

2 suspensions

38% graduated


Check Point: Let’s Action Plan:

What data will be included?

Where will I find the data?

How often will I schedule data monitoring?

How will I know the interventions are working?

3rd grade

Attendance

8th grade

Failing 2 courses

9th grade

HO

2

Student

Management

Software

Every 3wks Is attendance

increasing?

Report Card Every 9wks Failures

SMS Decrease

2 or more Every 6 wks Rate of

Behavior referrals

referrals decline

Break


How do I organize the data to identify systems in need of intervention?



Progress Elementary 2012-2013


Tota

l

Elementary Indicators HO

3

On the Way Up High School 2012-2013

HO

4

Early Warning at the System Level


What does the data tell us?

What does the data not tell us?

What data is needed for further analysis?

Elementary Elementary Elementary

High School High School High School

5th grade has the most

referrals in elementary

9th Grade Course Failures

Does not tell us the nature of

the referral

Does not tell us what

subjects are being failed or

the cause of the failures

Referrals disaggregated by

offense and location

Need to review course

failure list and review

teacher grade books

Early Warning at the System Level-Digging Deeper


Identify and Chart

areas of concern

What does the data tell us?

What does the data not tell us?

What data is needed for

further analysis?

HO

5


9th graders are failing

reading more than

any other course.

It does not tell us why the

students are failing.

• Is it the curriculum?

• Is it student

engagement?

• Is it teacher beliefs?

• Are students failing all

three classes?

Walk-through data from

the classroom.

Comparison of

assessment data to

grading criteria.

Student and teacher

perceptions data.

HO

6


Are the same students

who are absent also the

ones receiving ISS or

OSS?

Why are students

disengaged in classes?

9th graders are missing

more instructional time

than any other grade

Disaggregated lost

instructional time by student.

Student survey data to

understand why students

perceive they are

disengaged.

HO

7


We know that more

students are failing reading

than mathematics.

Why students are failing

reading?

How many students are

failing both math and

reading?

We need the Reading level

of the students.

We need walk-through data

from Reading and

mathematics classes.

HO

8


There is need to

disaggregate the referrals

by type in each location.

This data does not tell us

the nature of the referral.

We do not know the

number of referrals by

location.

We know that more

offenses are occurring in

the classroom.

HO

9

How do I use student level data to identify students who are off track and

possible system issues?



Using indicators to identify and classify students who are off track

On Track

Off Track

Extreme Off Track

Indicator Elementary School Middle School High School

Attendance

Missed 10 % or more

of instructional time

Missed 10% or more


Missed 10% or more


In ninth grade with one

or more absences

within the first 20 days

Referrals and

Suspensions

Two or more behavior

referrals AND/OR

One or more referrals

with suspension

defined in

s.1003.01.(5) F.S.


referrals AND/OR


with suspension

defined in

s.1003.01.(5) F.S.


referrals AND/OR


with suspension

defined in

s.1003.01.(5) F.S.

Course Failures Not proficient in

reading by third grade

Failed a mathematics

course

Failed an English

Language Arts course

Failed two or more

courses in any subject

In ninth grade with

two or more failed

courses in any subject

In ninth grade and

failed to progress on-

time to tenth grade

Credits (units) GPAs

(Middle and High

School)

Grade point average

less than 2.0

Retentions

Retained pursuant to

s.1008.25(4)(c), F.S.


HO

10


ELEMENTARY

Studen

t

Nam

e

Gra

de Leve

l

Birth D

ate

Gender

Race /

Ethnici

ty

ELL

Retentio

ns

Exce

ptional

ity

Days P

rese

nt

Days A

bsent

Tard

y

Early

Out

AP3 3-1

2 RC

Percen

tile

FCAT

2.0 S

SS

Leve

l

FCAT

2.0 S

SS

Rea

ding

Mat

h

Disciplin

e

Ref

erra

ls

JO 03 07052001 M HispanicLY Y K 155 25 15 0 7 2 182 C C 4

JANE 03 08272002 M White Y 157 23 0 0 11 2 183 C C 5

JEFF 03 08062002 M Multi K 178 2 0 0 20 2 184 B B 4

JORDAN 03 12102002 M Black 177 3 0 0 16 2 186 C C 4

MICHAEL 03 01182003 F White Y 178 2 0 0 49 2 189 B B 4

MATTHEW 03 07162003 F White 174 6 0 3 24 2 193 B B 4

EMILY 03 07252003 M Black 179 1 12 9 40 2 196 D F 12

FRED 03 02172003 M Asian LY 162 18 0 0 24 3 208 C C 4

SYNTHIA 03 09252001 F White 176 4 0 8 23 2 199 F D 4

DEBBIE 03 11212002 F Black Y 162 18 0 0 59 3 201 C C 6

JUDI 03 01292002 F Black 52 1 3 0 74 3 203 B B 8

PENNY 03 02272003 M White 178 2 0 0 29 4 221 C C 8

PAM 03 08062003 M White Z 180 0 1 7 64 4 224 B B 7

JIM 03 12182002 F White Y L 168 12 2 5 99 5 235 A A 8

JOHN 03 12282000 M Black 164 2 0 4 23 2 207 B B 3

CHARLIE 03 08222002 F White 160 20 5 7 58 3 208 C F 3

MARGARET 03 05222001 M Black 174 6 7 0 25 3 219 B B 3

MARY 03 10112001 F Multi Y 167 13 0 0 72 4 225 F F 3

KATHY 03 12112001 F White 157 23 0 0 95 4 226 C C 3

KIM 03 10272001 F Black 180 0 0 0 90 4 230 C C 3

KARA 03 08152002 M White 173 7 4 6 89 4 232 C C 3

ROGERRS 03 12172001 M White Y L 172 8 8 3 30 4 232 F F 3

FISHBAIT 04 11252001 M Black 136 37 12 9 73 5 240 C C 3

MARTHA 04 06092002 F White 158 22 1 15 63 5 269 D D 3

KISHA 05 07091999 F Asian LY Y W 168 12 2 4 10 1 166 D D 0

LATASHA 05 01252000 F Black 178 2 0 12 13 1 193 F F 7

SIMON 05 04041999 F Black 163 12 0 5 15 1 182 B B 0

HO

11


HO

12

At-risk Indicator Activity

Looking at the student data

Identify students who are off track as identified by SIP EWS Indicators



ELEMENTARY

Student N

ame

Grade Le

vel

Birth Date

Gender

Race / Eth

nicity

ELL

Retentions

Exceptionality

Days Pre

sent

Days Abse

nt

Tardy

Early O

ut

AP3 3-12 RC

Percentile

FCAT 2.0 SSS

Level

FCAT 2.0 SSS

Reading

Math

Disciplin

e

Referra

ls

JO 03 07052001M HispanicLY Y K 155 25 15 0 7 2 182 C C 4

JANE 03 08272002M White Y 157 23 0 0 11 2 183 C C 5

JEFF 03 08062002M Multi K 178 2 0 0 20 2 184 B B 4

JORDAN03 12102002M Black 177 3 0 0 16 2 186 C C 4

MICHAEL03 01182003F White Y 178 2 0 0 49 2 189 B B 4

MATTHEW03 07162003F White 174 6 0 3 24 2 193 B B 4

EMILY 03 07252003M Black 179 1 12 9 40 2 196 D F 12

FRED 03 02172003M Asian LY 162 18 0 0 24 3 208 C C 4

SYNTHIA03 09252001F White 176 4 0 8 23 2 199 F D 4

DEBBIE 03 11212002F Black Y 162 18 0 0 59 3 201 C C 6

JUDI 03 01292002F Black 52 1 3 0 74 3 203 B B 8

PENNY 03 02272003M White 178 2 0 0 29 4 221 C C 8

PAM 03 08062003M White Z 180 0 1 7 64 4 224 B B 7

JIM 03 12182002F White Y L 168 12 2 5 99 5 235 A A 8

JOHN 03 12282000M Black 164 2 0 4 23 2 207 B B 3

CHARLIE03 08222002F White 160 20 5 7 58 3 208 C F 3

MARGARET03 05222001M Black 174 6 7 0 25 3 219 B B 3

MARY 03 10112001F Multi Y 167 13 0 0 72 4 225 F F 3

KATHY 03 12112001F White 157 23 0 0 95 4 226 C C 3

KIM 03 10272001F Black 180 0 0 0 90 4 230 C C 3

KARA 03 08152002M White 173 7 4 6 89 4 232 C C 3

ROGERRS03 12172001M White Y L 172 8 8 3 30 4 232 F F 3

FISHBAIT04 11252001M Black 136 37 12 9 73 5 240 C C 3

MARTHA04 06092002F White 158 22 1 15 63 5 269 D D 3

KISHA 05 07091999F Asian LY Y W 168 12 2 4 10 1 166 D D 0

LATASHA05 01252000F Black 178 2 0 12 13 1 193 F F 7

SIMON 05 04041999F Black 163 12 0 5 15 1 182 B B 0


HIGH SCHOOL DATA SUBSETSt

uden

t Nam

eAP1 G

rade

Leve

l

Birth D

ate

Gender

Race /

Et

hnicit

y

ELL

F/R

Lunc

h

ESE C

ode

Days A

bsen

tAP1 R

C Pe

rcen

tile

AP2 RC

Perc

entil

eAP3 R

C Pe

rcen

tile

FCAT

2.0

SSS

Leve

lFC

AT 2.

0 SS

S Sc

ore

Algeb

ra

Readi

ng

Bio

logy

Dis

c.

Ref

erra

lsOVER

ALL G

PA

1 09 06011997 F Black N V 41 25 62 32 2 227 D F D 2 0.7

2 09 03201996 F Black Y 8 44 36 39 1 220 C B F 0 2.1

3 09 07201996 F Hispanic LY Y 31 12 15 18 1 189 D F D 5 1

4 09 09271996 M Black Y 3 20 35 35 1 212 D D F 2 0.67

5 09 02011997 F White Y W 24 4 17 4 1 251 C D F 0 1.2

6 09 10071996 F Asian LY Y 1 19 48 33 1 213 F B D 8 2.1

7 09 06061996 F Black LY N 23 46 44 33 2 234 C F D 1 1.2

8 09 02021996 M Black Y 19 15 29 20 1 220 F F C 8 2

9 09 11041995 F Hispanic LY Y 19 25 34 18 1 213 D D F 10 1.5

10 09 09161996 M White N 9 33 10 18 3 251 A A B 4 3.8

11 09 12191995 M Black LY N 7 4 23 33 2 227 D F F 0 2.1

12 09 11131993 F Black Y C 5 4 13 6 1 188 F D F 15 1.5

13 09 09271996 M Black Y 3 20 35 35 1 212 D D F 2 0.67

14 09 05061995 M White Y 3 12 32 33 2 222 C D C 1 2.1

15 09 09151996 M Black Y 2 36 13 40 1 220 D B F 1 1.9

16 09 07121997 F Hispanic LY Y 38 38 41 64 1 221 F F F 14 0.5

17 09 02021996 M Black Y 19 15 29 20 1 220 F F C 8 2

18 09 01261996 F Black Y K 1 12 33 36 1 211 F C D 0 1.5

19 09 01131997 F White N 1 29 28 50 1 220 B B C 2 3.1

20 09 10061995 F Black Y 1 14 15 33 1 216 C B C 2 2.9

21 09 01231996 F Black LY Y 0 13 20 38 1 221 B B C 1 3.1

21 09 12091995 F Black Y 0 27 52 39 1 217 D C D 0 0.019

23 09 05311996 M Black N K 0 42 49 35 1 218 D A D 2 2.5

More Indicators

Higher Level of Risk

Discussion and Next steps

Matching resources

to reduce

identified student and/or system barriers



Middle School EWS



1. What is an EWS? 2. What is an EWS? 3. What data is used for an EWS? 4. How do I organize the data to identify systems in need of intervention? 5. How do I use student level data to identify

students who are off track and possible system issues?


Wrap Up -EWS Critical Questions

3- What are 3 things that you learned?

2- What are 2 things that you will use immediately when you return to your school?

1- What is 1 thing that you already do that aligns with this module?


Exit Ticket

HO

13


References

Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005, June). The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Chicago, Illinois, USA.

ASCD Association for Supervision and Curriculum Development. (2008, December 2). High School Dropouts. Alexandria , Virginia, USA.

Balfanz, R. (2008, January 30). Three Steps to Building an Early Warning and Intervention System for Potential Dropouts. Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

Balfanz, R., & Fox, J. M. (2011). On Track for Success: The Use of Early Earning Indicator and Intervention Systems to Build a Grad Nation. Washington: Everyone Graduates Center.

Balfanz, R., Byrnes, V., & Fox, J. (2012, December 12). Sent Home and Put Off-Track: The Antecedents, Disproportionalities, and Consequences of Being Suspended in the Ninth Grade. Baltimore , Maryland, USA.


References Chang, H. N., & Romero, M. (2008, September). Present, Engaged and Accounted For: The Critical Importance of Addressing Chronic Absence in the Early Grades. New York City: Columbia University.

Cohen, S. (2010, December 25). A $5 Children's Book vs a $47,000 Jail Cell -- Choose One. Retrieved April 2013, from

Florida PS/RtI Project -USF. Tampa, Florida

Forbes Magazine: http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevecohen/2010/12/25/a-5-childrens-book-vs-a-47000-jail-cell-choose-one/

Heppen, J. B., & Therriault, J. B. (2008, July). Developing Early Warning Systems to Identify Potential High School Dropouts. USA.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevecohen/2010/12/25/a-5-childrens-book-vs-a-47000-jail-cell-choose-one/






















References Hernandez, D. J. (2012). Double Jeopardy: How Third Grade Reading Skills and Poverty Influence High School Graduation. Double Jeopardy: How Third Grade Reading Skills and Poverty Influence High School Graduation. New York City, New York, USA.

Pinkus, L. (2008, August). Using Early-Warning Data to Improve Graduation Rates: Closing Cracks in the Education System. Alliance for Excellent Education Policy Brief, pp. 2-7.

Early Warning Systems - Broward County Public … Warning Systems? My school is not familiar with EWS My school is familiar with EWS My school collects EWS data My school utilizes

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