At each period of the history of mankind, At each period of the history of mankind, since the most primitive times, a small since the most primitive times, a small number of individuals were able to live number of individuals were able to live up to 100 years and to thus carry out the up to 100 years and to thus carry out the potential maximum longevity of the potential maximum longevity of the species. species. Biology of aging and longevity Biology of aging and longevity R Cutler, 1985 R Cutler, 1985
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During the 18th century… The first limits for the human life span
At each period of the history of mankind, since the most primitive times, a small number of individuals were able to live up to 100 years and to thus carry out the potential maximum longevity of the species. Biology of aging and longevity R Cutler, 1985. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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At each period of the history of mankind, since the most At each period of the history of mankind, since the most primitive times, a small number of individuals were able to primitive times, a small number of individuals were able to live up to 100 years and to thus carry out the potential live up to 100 years and to thus carry out the potential maximum longevity of the species. maximum longevity of the species.
Biology of aging and longevityBiology of aging and longevity
R Cutler, 1985R Cutler, 1985
There is no evidence that the maximum human life span has There is no evidence that the maximum human life span has changed from what it was about a hundred thousand years changed from what it was about a hundred thousand years ago… ago…
… … If the human life span is really increasing, then, for If the human life span is really increasing, then, for example we might find that the oldest humans were reaching example we might find that the oldest humans were reaching the age of 100 years in 1850, 115 years in 1900, and 120 the age of 100 years in 1850, 115 years in 1900, and 120 years in 1950. This would be good evidence that maximum years in 1950. This would be good evidence that maximum life span is increasing, especially if large numbers of people life span is increasing, especially if large numbers of people in each period reached these very old ages.in each period reached these very old ages.
Hayflick, 1996Hayflick, 1996
European Health ForumEuropean Health ForumGastein, October 5th 2005Gastein, October 5th 2005
Perspectives for extendingPerspectives for extendinghealthy life expectancyhealthy life expectancy
Jean-Marie RobineJean-Marie RobineINSERM, Health and Demography, CRLC, University of INSERM, Health and Demography, CRLC, University of
Montpellier, FranceMontpellier, France
During the 18th century…During the 18th century…The first limits for the The first limits for the human life spanhuman life span Alexandre de Moivre (1724) : 86 ansAlexandre de Moivre (1724) : 86 ans Isaac de Graaf (1729) : 92 ans Isaac de Graaf (1729) : 92 ans
As for what is alleged, that by some observations of late years, it appears, that life is carried to 90, 95, and even to 100 years ; I am not more moved by it, than by the example of Parr, or Jenkins, the first of which lived 152 years, and the other 167.
de Moivre, 1724
Increase in life expectancyIncrease in life expectancy
Female life expectancy in the record-holding country since 1840…
23,000 centenarians in Japan in 200323,000 centenarians in Japan in 2003
Robine & Saito, 2003
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
24000
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Total
Males
Females
More than 800 persons aged 105 and More than 800 persons aged 105 and over in Japan in 2002over in Japan in 2002
Robine & Saito, 2003
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Total
Males
Females
105+
Emergence of super-centenarians: more than 20 cases in Japan in 2002
Robine & Saito, 2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
110+
Lenghening of lifeLenghening of life
Distribution of deaths in SwitzerlandDistribution of deaths in Switzerland1876-1880, 1929-1932, 1988-19931876-1880, 1929-1932, 1988-1993
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
20 40 60 80 100 120
1876-80
1929-32
1988-93
Increase in the modal length of life and decrease in the Increase in the modal length of life and decrease in the standard deviation,standard deviation,
males and females, Switzerland,1876-1880 to 2001-2002males and females, Switzerland,1876-1880 to 2001-2002
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece
Ireland Italy Netherland Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom
Jagger and the EHEMU team, 2005
Who will care for the oldest old?
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
0,45
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
BR (HMD)
BR (IDB)
Adj BR (Sc 0)
Adj BR (Sc NLTCS)
Adj BR (Sc 1)
Adj BR (Sc 2)
Rapport entre le nombre des personnes de 85 ans et pluset les femmes âgées de 50 à 75 ans en France de 1900 à 2050;
rapport ajusté selon les taux de dépendance du NLTCS et divers scénarios
Keeping the share betweenKeeping the share betweeninformal, informal + formal and formal LTC?informal, informal + formal and formal LTC?
More oldest old?More oldest old? More oldest old with LTC needs?More oldest old with LTC needs?
Disability declineDisability decline Use of technical equipmentUse of technical equipment
More families with oldest old (actual numbers / proportion)?More families with oldest old (actual numbers / proportion)? More available children?More available children?
ChildlessChildless Number of living childrenNumber of living children
Same willingness to care for?Same willingness to care for? Impact of divorce (father/daughter)…Impact of divorce (father/daughter)… Son participation in caringSon participation in caring
Same demand / same expectationSame demand / same expectation Ability to afford paid servicesAbility to afford paid services Level of education (SES differentials)Level of education (SES differentials)
Same level of disability for the oldest old with LTC needs?Same level of disability for the oldest old with LTC needs? Ability to care forAbility to care for
Informal use onlyInformal use only Informal and formalInformal and formal Formal onlyFormal only
Thank youThank you
Horizontalization of Horizontalization of the survival curve, the survival curve,
women, Switzerland, from women, Switzerland, from 1876-80 to 2001-021876-80 to 2001-02
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120Age
Pro
port
ion
surv
ivin
g to
age
x (l
x)
1876-80
1956-60
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120Age
Pro
po
rtio
n s
urv
ivin
g t
o a
ge
x (l
x)
2001-02
1956-60
Cheung, Robine, Paccaud, 2005
Verticalization of the Verticalization of the survival curves,survival curves,
women in Switzerland, 1876-women in Switzerland, 1876-80 and 2001-0280 and 2001-02