Drylands Climate: knowledge and projections, Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa ICPAC

Presented at the ESA Learning Event on Community Based Adaptation & Resilience

1 – 4 September; ILRI, Addis Ababa

Jasper Batureine MwesigwaAGOMETEOROLOGIST, ICPAC

ESA Drylands Climate Knowledge & Projections

Key Definitions • Climate Change refers to a change in the state of

the climate that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural and anthropogenic processes.

• Climate variability – is the year to year fluctuation or the variation in mean state of climate on all spatial and temporal scales.

• Climate – Is the average weather conditions (taken over a period not less than 30 years), including seasonal to inter-annual extremes and variations locally, regionally and across the globe.

What aspects of Climate are Changing? • Temperature

– Land, oceans (including snow & ice caps) & the atmosphere have warmed up

– Warmer & fewer cold days/nights – More frequent hot days and nights – Increased frequency & duration of heat waves

• Precipitation – Increased heavy precipitation events leading to floods – Increase in frequency & intensity of heavy precipitation – Increase in intensity and duration of drought – Increase in intense tropical cyclone activity

IPCC

5

Observed Climate Change Signals in the Eastern Africa Temperature rise

• Wetter region gets more wetter and drier gets more drier since the second half of the 20th century.

• Extreme weather & climate events became more frequent. IPCC

GeoCLIM

AREAS OF DECLINING RAIN FALL AMOUNTS

OBSERVED TRENDS IN RF AMOUNTS 1981-2013(MM/DECADE) GeoCLIM

SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION OBSERVEDGeoCLIM

SATELLITE DATABLENDED DATA

ICPACGeoCLIM

Rainfall Trends in Moyale

ICPAC

MAKINDU STATION: 1960 - 2012 RAINFALL (ANNUAL TOTAL, MAM, JJAS & OND)TREND SHOWS REDUCTION IN AMOUNTS ACROSS ALL SEASONS

Rainfall Amounts Reducing by Approx 150mm every 50 years

The Big Question: Has the Climate Changed?

ICPAC

Rainfall Trends in the GHA

ICPAC

Impacts of the Observed Changes • Impacts in all socio-economic sectors

– Agriculture/livelihoods – Infrastructure – Environment/ecosystems/terrestrial/marine – Tourism – Water sector/hydro-power

• Huge economic losses due to impacts – 2008-2011 in Kenya; livestock sector alone was

estimated to have lost approx: Ksh.699 billion – The costs and time of recovery are increasing

At Community Level

• Seasons are no longer predictable • Crop production is no longer predictable • Pastures and water are no longer predictable • Food security is no longer predictable • Communities’ livelihoods are not predictable

– Linkage with Chronic Food Insecurity, rampant Famine, Hunger and Starvation; Poverty, Conflicts, ???? in the drylands

ICPAC UNEP/GoK KU

IMPACTS

Projections of Climate Change

IPCC

• Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming & changes in all components of the climate system.

• Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6.

• Oceans will be more acidic by the end of the 21st century• Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st

century• ENSO will remain the dominant mode of inter-annual

variability in the tropical Pacific, with global effects in the 21st century .

• Due to the increase in moisture availability, ENSO-related precipitation variability on regional scales will likely intensify

Projections of Climate Change

September to December (SOND)

Projected 2030 SOND Rainfall (Base period 1961-1990)

Projected 2050 SOND Rainfall (Base period 1961-1990)

ICPAC/WFP

Projected 2100 TmaxProjected 2100 Tmin

ICPAC/WFP

ICPAC/WFP

Period Mean projected changes (o C )2030 2050 2080

Annual

+0.8 +2.5 +3.2December to February (DJF)

+0.7 +2.4 +3.2March to May (MAM)

+0.8 +2.5 +3.5June to August (JJA)

+0.7 +2.8 +3.5September to November (SON) +0.9 +2.1 +3.1

Northern Equatorial Region

ICPAC/WFP

Southern Equatorial Region Period

Mean projected changes (o C )2030 2050 2080

Annual +0.6 +2.1 +3.0December to February (DJF)

+0.7 +2.5 +3.3

March to May (MAM) +0.9 +2.8 +3.2June to August (JJA) +0.7 +2.5 +3.0September to November (SON)

+0.3 +1.1 +3.3ICPAC/WFP

IPCC

The Uncertainty in the Projections• There are many uncertainties in future projections of

climate change and its impacts. • E.g. How will man alter the climate in the future.• Will depend on factors such as population, economic

growth, technology development, energy demand & methods of supply/transport, & land use.

• We should to consider a range of possible future scenarios.

• Another category of uncertainties relate to our incomplete understanding of the climate system, and our inability to adequately model some aspects of the system.

Is it possible to Completely Understand the Climate System?

IPCC

VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY IN 2030

UNDP

Conclusions• Climate change is real; its impacts have the potential

to undermine & even, undo progress made in improving the socio-economic well-being

• Need to focus on reducing the risks associated with the current climate variability and extremes in order to be able to adapt to future changes in climate

• To be careful about possible maladaptation • Strengthened inter-linkages between adaptation and

development pathways and a focus on building resilience would help to counter the current adaptation deficit and reduce future maladaptation risks- IPCC

Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

ENSO forecast

IOD forecasts

Thank you for Listening