Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

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Zeyblutm `cvnrscty

C`tnr`otcl`oe Qmcppc`g o`h Elgcstcas Grlup

BOV 1?9

C`tnr`otcl`oe Qmcppc`g

Hry Fuek Borknt Vnvcnw o`h Lutellk

Qtuhn`t `obn4 Yeohcseovs Fotoelvs

Qtuhn`t ubfnr4 ?:63>:=3

Hnohec`n4 Infruory ?6tm% 6:?1

Qnt fy4 Dl`otmo` Amoeeoalbfn

Wlrh Alu`t4 1%:11Xofen li Al`tn`ts

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7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

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?. C`trlhuatcl` 1

6. Fuek Qmcppc`g Borknt Quppey Qchn 8

1. Fuek Qmcppc`g Borknt Hnbo`h Qchn 7

1.?Crl` Lrn Hnbo`h =

1.6 Aloe Hnbo`h 3

1.1 Groc` Hnbo`h ?:

8. Al`aeuscl` ?6

>. Vninrn`an Ecst ?1

9. Fcfeclgropmy ?>

7. Xofens o`h Icgurns ?9

?. C`trlhuatcl`

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7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

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Ct cs `l snarnt tmot tmn hry fuek smcppc`g cs tmn lehnst typn li tmn

smcppc`g fusc`nss% wmcam tokns cts rllts mu`hnrs li ynors ogl. Lfvclusey

sc`an tmn` o elt mos amo`gnh% mlwnvnr tmn nssn`an stoynh tmn sobn " tl

tro`splrt tmn albblhcty c` tmn amnopnst o`h qucaknst woy% wmcen stoyc`gsoin o`h niicacn`t. Xmn prc`acpen albblhctcns wmcam ilrb tmn blhnr` hry

fuek smcppc`g borknt orn crl` lrn% aloe o`h groc` aorglns. Xmnrn orn oesl

bc`lr fuek albblhctcns suam os ogrcfueks% bntoes o`h bc`nroes os wnee

os stnne prlhuats% wmcam oesl al`trcfutn tl tmn lvnroee tl``ogn li smcppnh

aorgl. Ct cs nstcbotnh tmot hry fuek aorglns bokn up tmn tmn eorgnst

prlplrtcl` li tmn snoflr`n trohn% wmcam fy tmn n`h li 6:?6 wos rlugmey

1%>:: bbt. Xnam`lelgcaoe hnvnelpbn`ts li tmn eost >: ynors movn enh tl

blrn slpmcstcaotnh o`h eorgnr smcp hnscg`s% ocbc`g `lt l`ey tl

oaalbpecsm tmn nal`lbcns li saoen % fut oesl tl botam tmn aorgl o`h

trohc`g rlutn rnqucrnbn`ts. Xmn c`hustrcoe prlhuatcl` prlanssns% gelfoe

al`subptcl` o`h amo`gn c` trohn rlutn pottnr`s movn oesl moh o

`ltcanofen cbpoat l` tmn hnvnelpbn`t li tmcs c`hustry. Oeczohnm -6:??#

ossnrts tmot% wctmc` tmn hry fuek snatlr hciinrn`t suf"borknts wctm

hcstc`atcvn amoroatnrcstcas c` tnrbs li suppey o`h hnbo`h inoturns%

lpnrotcl`oe amoroatnrcstcas% rcsk o`h prlictofcecty movn hnvnelpnh% oel`g

wctm al`struatcl` li spnacoecsnh vnssnes li vorclus sczns% wmcam ao` fn

nbpelynh ilr tro`splrtotcl` li anrtoc albblhctcns lvnr portcaueor

trohc`g rlutns. Xmnrnilrn tmnrn cs o portcaueor sngbn`totcl` wctmc` tmn

hry fuek smcppc`g borknt% `obney vnssnes li hciinrn`t sczns movn tmncr

prc`acpen aorglns o`h rlutns. Xmn iennt cs fucet up irlb Mo`hy%

Mo`hybox% Zo`obox% Quprobox o`h Aopnsczn vnssnes% noam nbpelynh

ilr aorrcogn li hciinrn`t hry fuek albblhctcns% oetmlugm smorc`g scbceorcty

c` tmncr hnscg`% ct cs blrn albbl` ilr sboeenr vnssnes tl fn gnornh% wmcen

eorgnr l`ns eoak tmcs inoturn.

Xmn hry fuek smcppc`g borknt mos fnn` al`sto`tey grlwc`g hurc`g

tmn post hnaohns% wmcen movc`g cts ups o`h hlw`s ct cs iocr tl soy tmot tmcs

portcaueor fro`am li smcppc g mos n dlynh o rneotcvney aoeb rchn.

@nvnrtmnenss tmn pcaturn mos amo`gnh hrobotcaoeey hurc`g tmn eost inw

ynors% os tmn gelfoe al`subptcl` o`h prlhuatcl` pottnr`s stortnh tl

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amo`gn alupenh fy tmn gelfoe nal`lbca arcscs o`h cts al`snquna`ans tmn

hry fuek smcppc`g borknt ic`hs ctsnei c` o vnry hciicauet sctuotcl` `lw. Xmn

ynor 6:?6 wos orguofey tmn blst hciicauet ynor ilr tmn hry fuek borknt

spurrc`g o elt li qunstcl`s o`h u`anrtoc`tcns oflut tmn iurtmnr grlwtmo`h hnvnelpbn`t li tmcs fusc`nss. Xmcs al`trcfutcl` wcee hnsarcfn o`h

ceeustrotn tmn amo`gns o`h nvn`ts tmot enh tl prnsn`t al`hctcl` li tmn

borknt wctm mnep li oaohnbca o`h stotcstcaoe c`ilrbotcl` o`h try tl

prnhcat tmn iuturn hnvnelpbn`ts c` tmn hry fuek smcppc g borknt fy

c`tnrprntc`g o`h sy`tmnscsc`g c`ilrbotcl` irlb vorclus oaohnbca ortcaens%

rnplrts o`h bnhco slurans.

6. Fuek Qmcppc`g Borknt Quppey Qchn

Xmn ynor 6:?6 wos tmn wlrst ynor ilr tmn hry fuek smcppc`g borknt

c` hnaohns. Wmcen tmn lvnroee hry fuek aorgl vleubns orn nvnr"c`arnosc`g

tmn nor`c`gs irlb tmcs fusc`nss movn mct tmncr elwnst plc`t c` 1: ynors.

Xmn selwnr nal`lbca hnvnelpbn`t mos fnn` hciicauet ilr smcplw`nrs wml%

wctm o snvnrn lvnraopoacty li tl``ogn% movn struggenh wctm o hnprnssnh

irncgmt borknt sc`an tmn stort li tmn ic`o`acoe arcscs foak c` 6::= -FCBAL%

6:?6#. Xmn nxtrnbn cbfoeo`an li tmn suppey o`h hnbo`h li tmn tl``ogn

aopoacty mos rnsuetnh c` o `ubfnr li fo`kruptacns li sboee o`h bnhcub

albpo cns snrvcac`g tmcs borknt. Xmn `nwfucehc`gs tmot movn fnn`

lrhnrnh ot o` nxanptcl`oe envne foak c` 6::= orn mcttc g tmn smcplw`nrs

vnry morh% os tmn tmncr prnhcatcl`s li tmn al`tc`unh mcgm grlwtm rotns c`

tmn wlreh trohn fnilrn tmn aleeopsn li tmn ic`o`acoe borknts vnry uttnrey

wrl`g. Ct cs lfsnrvofen tmot selw"stnobc`g% chcec`g o`h rnayaec`g li tmn

vnssnes orn tmn l`ey lptcl`s enit ilr tmn smcplw`nrs wml orn tryc`g tmncr

fnst tl bo`ogn tmn lvnraopoacty li tl``ogn. Xmn sctuotcl` wos wlrsn`nh

fy tmn nxtrnbn nxpo`scl` li tmn hry fuek iennt c` 6:?6% wmcam grnw fy 7:

bceecl` HWX. Xmn al`tc`ulus hnaec`n c` tmn irncgmt rotns o`h nor`c`gs c`

6:?6% smlws us tmot ct wcee tokn tcbn fnilrn tmn suppey o`h hnbo`h

foeo`an rotcl wcee fn foak l` troak. Oetmlugm tmn Aopnsczn vnssnes wnrn

liinrc`g o vnry mcgm aorgl aopoacty% tmny wnrn tmn l`ns mct tmn blst% wctm

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irncgmt rotns ioeec`g elwnr tmn` oee ltmnr sngbn`ts. Xlworhs tmn n`h li

6:?6% hnbo`h ilr crl` lrn c` portcaueor pcaknh up ogoc`% os Amc`o

c`trlhuanh o`ltmnr eorgn stcbueus poakogn wctm ilaus l` c`irostruaturoe

hnvnelpbn`ts. Nvn` tmlugm tmcs plsctcvney cbpoatnh tmn rotns% tmnu`sustoc`ofen elw irncgmt rotn envnes hurc`g blst li 6:?6 prlvnh l`ey

suiicacn`t tl alvnr lpnrotc`g nxpn`sns% fut morhey o`y aopctoe alst

-FCBAL% 6:?6#. Ct mos tl bn`tcl`nh tmot tmn prlfenb li tmcs nxtrnbn

lvnraopoacty boy `lt movn fnn` ovlchnh% mlwnvnr tmn smcplw`nrs o`h

smcpyorhs moh tmn lpplrtu`cty tl plstpl`n o`h hneoy tmn hnecvnrcns li

tmn `nw vnssnes fy tmot snaurc g nbpelybn`t ilr wlrknrs ilr o

el`gnr pnrclh li tcbn u`tce ct wos ofsleutney u`ovlchofen -FCBAL% 6:?1#.

Wmcen tmn hnblectcl` rotns wnrn pnokc`g ot 1 bceecl` HWX o bl`tm tmn

hnecvnry rotn wos mcttc`g ho`gnrlus ?: bceecl` HWX o bl`tm. FCBAL

-6:?1# rnplrt suggnsts tmot tmn mcgm hnecvnry rotn cs tmn al`snqun`an li

tmn c`tn`sn eoak li aosm"ielw tmot tmn smcpyorhs orn suiinrc`g. Xmn

poybn`t struauturn li tmn blrn rnan`t al`troats cs tmot tmn fcggnst

amu`k li bl`ny rnenosnh tl tmn yorhs cs aelsnr tl tmn albpentcl` o`h

hnecvnry li tmn smcp% rotmnr tmn` tmn prnvclus al`troats tmot wnrn irl`t"

mnovy irlb scg`c`g tl hnecvnry% lr ot enost nquoeey hcstrcfutnh. Xmn gelfoe

hry fuek iennt cs `lw pusmc`g 3%>:: vnssnes li lvnr 97>b hwt o`h%

oetmlugm tmn `ubfnr li smcps sleh ilr hnblectcl` mos c`arnosnh oeblst

>: l` 6:?? icgurns tl blrn tmo` 1:b hwt% tmcs mos bohn `l bodlr

cbpoat l` alrrnatc`g lvnraopoacty. Xmn aopnsczn iennt oel`n% ilr vnssnes

lvnr ?::%::: hwt% mos c`arnosnh blrn tmo` 3: c` hnohwncgmt tnrbs

sc`an tmn stort li 6::3 tl rnoam 677b hwt. -BaAortmy% 6:?6#. Ct cs

nstcbotnh tmot iennt mos grlw` fy =.= sc`an tmn tur` li tmn ynor% os 398

`nw smcps movn `lw fnn` hnecvnrnh c`tl o iennt tmot oernohy stllh ot

=%3:? hry fuek aorrcnrs ot tmn stort li tmn ynor. Ilrtu`otney% tmn prnssurn

li =: bceecl` HWX li fro`h `nw aopoacty fnc`g plurnh c`tl tmn borknt

mos fnn` nosnh tl slbn nxtn`t fy 17> lvnr ognh vnssnes fnc`g

hnblecsmnh. Xmcs cs tmn l`ey rnosl`ofen blvn irlb tmn smcplw`nrs c`

lrhnr tl cbprlvn tmn foh borknt al`hctcl`s. 6> bceecl` HWX mos `lw

fnn` hnblecsmnh hurc`g 6:?6 wctm blrn tl albn% ossubc`g tmot smcp

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7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

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lw`nrs al`tc`un tl fn tnbptnh fy tmn rnayaec`g prcan envne -FCBAL%

6:?1#.

Oetmlugm% tmn oatcl`s orn fnc`g tokn` os tmn al`anr` mos mct cts pnok

tmn o``uoe lrhnrfllk ilr hry fuek aorrcnrs cs stcee tmnrn o`h ct cs nxpnatnh

tmot Zo`obox snatlr wcee snn tmn mcgmnst rcsn c` 6:?1 li 3.=% wmcen tmn

Quprobox snatlr cs nstcbotnh tl fn ohhnh fy rneotcvney elw 8.> c`

6:?1. Lvnroee tmn hry fuek aorrcnr iennt c` 6:?1 cs nxpnatnh tl rcsn fy

9

Qluran4 VQ ZEOXL . Albblhct smc c` borknts; Qtotus o`h Lutellk.

7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

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9.= lvnr 6:?6% os suggnstnh fy Borctcbn Nxamo`gn C`ilrbotcl` An`trn

-6:?6#. Wn ao` spnaueotn tmot wn wcee stcee fn snnc`g tmn lvnrsuppey c`

6:?1% nspnacoeey c` tmn Aopnsczn o`h Zo`obox snatlr% wmcen tmn qununs

ilr hnblectcl` wcee fn c`arnosc`g hrobotcaoeey. Xmn kny ilr rnalvnry ecns c`auttc`g foak l` tl``ogn suppey fy hneoyc`g lr ao`aneec`g `nwfucehc`g

lrhnrs. O`ltmnr cbplrto`t ospnat li tmn suppey schn tmot cs wlrtm

bn`tcl`c`g cs tmn smcitc`g c`tnrnst li smcplw`nrs tlworhs nal"ircn`hey

vnssnes% wmcam orn aeocbnh tl liinr eorgn iune sovc`gs albpornh wctm tmn

sto`horh vnssnes lpnrotc`g c` tmn borknt. Oetmlugm tmn hnachc`g ioatlr

wcee fn tmn iune alsts% wmcam orn `lt nxpnatnh tl hnaec`n% tmn nbpmoscs

mos stcee tl fn put l` tmn aurrn`t amoeen`gn li lptcbcsc`g tmn niicacn`ay li

prnsn`t iennt -FCBAL% 6:?1#.

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1. Fuek Qmcppc`g

Borknt Hnbo`h

Qchn

Os ct wos oernohy bn`tcl`nh oflvn tmn ynor 6:?6 wos tmn wlrst ilr

hry fuek borknt% c` quortnr li o an`tury wctm Foetca Hry C`hnx ovnrogc`g

ot o tmrnn hcgct `ubfnr ot 38> plc`ts% snal`h wlrst sc`an ?3=9 wmn` ct

ovnrognh ot 3:9 plc`ts. Hry fuek aorrcnr nor`c`gs wnrn albprlbcsnh tmcs

ynor fy mugn lvnraopoacty c` tmn amortnrc`g borknts% hun tl rnalrh

`nwfucehc`g hnecvnrcns lvnr tmn post inw ynors. Ecz BaAortmy -6:?6# li

Eelyhs Ecst rnplrts tmot tmn gelfoe tcbnamortnr rotn ilr aopsczn vnssnes

mos ovnrognh lut ot (7%9=: pnr hoy% c` al`trost tmn aopnsczn tcbnamortnr

rotn c` ?333 ovnrognh (?:%36? pnr hoy% pnokc`g ot (??9%:83 c` 6::7.

Qcbceorey% ilr tmn po`obox fuek aorrcnr snatlr tcbnamortnr rotn ovnrognh

dust (7%9=8 pnr hoy tmcs ynor tmn elwnst icgurn rnplrtnh sc`an ?333%

wmn` ct ovnrognh (7%8?6 pnr hoy. Quprobox fuek aorrcnrs oamcnvnh tmn

mcgmnst ovnrogn rotn% tmlugm stcee c` ilur icgurns% ot (3%8>6 pnr hoy. Xmn

mo`hysczn gelfoe tcbnamortnr rotn ovnrognh (7%969 tmcs ynor -BaAortmy%

6:?6#.

Xmn icgurn fnelw ceeustrotns tmn vleotcecty li tmn hocey trcpamortnr rotns

irlb Infrurory 6:?6 u`tcee Infruory 6:?1.

=

Qluran4 @AXOH Vnvcnw li Borctcbn Xro`splrt

6:?6

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Ct cs lfsnrvofen irlb tmn

icgurns oflvn tmot tmn

irncgmt rotns ilr oeesgnbn`ts li tmn hry fuek

borknt orn c` o seubp%

o`h movn fnn` quctn

vleotcen tmrlugmlut tmn

ynor. Xmn aopsczn vnssnes

movn snn` o rcsn o`h ioee

c` tmn tmcrh quortnr li tmn

ynor bltcvotnh fy tmn

Amc`nsn stcbueus poakogn

ocbnh ot tmn

hnvnelpbn`t li

c`irostruaturn. Xmn

icgurn l` tmn enit%

prnsn`tnh fy

Fronbor Qnosalpn%

n`alrplrotns gelfoe

plrt c`vnstbn`t o`h hnvnelpbn`t peo`s c` tmn `nxt inw ynors. Wn ao`

lfsnrvn o alelssoe grlwtm wctm aopoacty blrn tmo` hlufec`g irlb 6:?6

tl 6:?=. Xmcs cs hun tl tmn mugn oblu`t li prlpnsh nxpo`scl` ilr fltm

crl` lrn o`h aloe ioacectcns% tl mnep innh nbnrgc`g `otcl`oe hnbo`h c`

alu`trcns eckn Amc`o% C`ho o`h ltmnrs. Xmcs scg`cicao`t ohhctcl`oe aopoacty

wcee surney botnrcoecsn% mlwnvnr slbn hneoys o`h ao`aneeotcl`s orn

nxpnatnh% hun tl u`stofen aurrn`t borknt stotn.

1.? Crl` Lrn Hnbo`h

3

Qluran4 VQ ZEOXL^ HVS F^EK IC]X^VN VNZLVX

Qluran4 Dueco` Osslacotns O`oeyscs

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Xmn aurrn t stotn li tmc`gs c` tmn crl` lrn borknt%os c` hry fuek

borknt c` gn`nroe cs quctn hnprnssnh. Xmrlugmt tmn ynor tmn prcans ilr

crl` lrn wnrn mcgmey vleotcen% mlwnvnr Amc`o moh smlw` o strl`g hnbo`h

ilr cbplrtnh lrn tmus stcbueotc`g tmn borknt. Oetmlugm% tmn hnbo`h wossecgmtey wnoknr tmn` c` prnvclus ynors% tmn Amc`nsn stcbueus peo`

c`trlhuanh c` Qnptnbfnr cbbnhcotney oiinatnh crl` lrn prcans o`h

Amc`nsn cbplrts plsctcvney. Oetmlugm C`hco` Quprnbn Alurt fo` l` crl`

lrn blvnbn`t c` Glo -C`hco's snal`h"fcggnst crl` lrn prlhuac`g stotn#%

oiinatnh tmn C`hcos nxplrts tl Amc`o% tmnrn wos o strl`g hnbo`h ilr

Frozceeco` o`h Oustroeco` lrn. Qtrl`g Frozceco` nxplrts hnbl`strotnh o

slech upschn c` tmn hry fuek borknt irlb tmcs surgn c` hnbo`h. Wmcen

Amc`o wos c`arnosc`g tmncr crl` lrn c`vn`tlry c` plrts tmn hnbo`h ilr

Aopnsczn vnssnes wos mcgm o`h tmn borknts hnbl`strotnh o surgn c` tmn

irncgmt rotns mcttc`g tmn o``uoe mcgm c` @lvnbfnr 6:?6. C` Hnanbfnr

6:?6 Amc o Crl` o`h Qtnne Osslacotcl` -6:?6# stotnh4 &Wnoknr stnne

hnbo`h c` wc tnr% mcgm stnne lutput o`h tmn u`wceec`g`nss li stnne

trohnrs tl rnstlak hun tl tcgmt aopctoe wcee knnp Amc`o's stnne borknt

u`hnr prnssurn.& Bonrsk Frlknr aeocbs tmot C` 6:?1% tmn gelfoe stnne

hnbo`h cs nxpnatnh tl nxpo`h fy 1.6. Oaalrhc`g tl DZ Blrgo`% tmn

Amc`nsn crl` lrn inee fy ?: snqun`tcoeey o`h ?= S"l"S c` @lvnbfnr hun

tl tmn oflvn bn`tcl`nh stlakpcec`g c` tmn Amc nsn plrts. Br. So` cs

Zoamluecs% Zrnschn`t li tmn Mneen`ca Qmcpfrlknrs' Osslacotcl` stotns tmot

tmn hlw`tur` c` tmn bchhen li 6:?6 wos nxpnatnh% os blrn o`h blrn

`nwfucehc`g vnssnes wnrn tl mcttc`g tmn wotnr% l` tmn foak li o mugn

lrhnrfllk. Mn ohhs tmot wctm gelfoe hry fuek trohn nxpnatnh tl c`arnosn

nxpl`n`tcoeey hurc`g tmn 6:?8,6:?>% tmn aurrn`t lvnrsuppey li hry fuek

tl``ogn wcee fn grohuoeey ofslrfnh% tmus mnepc`g tl frc`g irncgmt rotns

foak tl blrn sustoc ofen envnes -Mneen`ca Qmcppc g% 6:?6#. VQ Zeotlu

Nal`lbca Vnsnoram soys tmot prlspnats ilr o ayaecaoe upswc`g c`

6:?8,6:?> orn aoutclusey lptcbcstca os suppey schn schn iu`hobn`toes orn

cbprlvc`g borknhey o`h ci trn`h stoys tmn sobn o`h tmn lvnroee gelfoe

nal`lby wcee fn plsctcvn wn wcee aenorey snn blrn foeo`an c` tmn suppey

o`h hnbo`h rotcl c` tmn crl` lrn borknt.

?:

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1.6 Aloe Hnbo`h

Aloe cs tmn snal`h eorgnst hry fuek trohn% wmcam cs mcgmey oiinatnh fy

tmn crl` lrn borknt o`h twl hcstc`at borknts li tmnrboe aloe o`h alkc`g

aloe. Xmn hnbo`h ilr alkc`g aloe cs slbnwmot hnpn`ho`t l` tmn crl` lrn

borknt os ct cs usnh tl prlhuan stnne% tmnrboe aloe l` tmn ltmnr mo`h cs

usnh ilr iune tmn plwnr stotcl`s. C` tmn rnan`t ynors tmn aloe borknt wos

eorgnreoy oiinatnh fy Amc`nsn hnbo`h ilr plwnr gn`nrotcl`% hun tl ropch

nal`lbca hnvnelpbn`t% tmus smcitc`g Amc`o irlb fnc`g o eorgn nxplrtnr

tl l`n li tmn fcggnst cbplrtnrs li aloe.Aeorksl` Vnsnoram -6:?6# nxpnats

tmnrboe aloe cbplrts tl fn ?1= bceecl` tl`s tmcs ynor o`h wctm o`

c`arnosn li ?6 y"l"y. C`hco mos oesl nxpnrcn`anh o mcgm hnbo`h grlwtm%

o`h cs nxpnatnh tl fn tmn snal`h"eorgnst cbplrtnr li tmnrboe aloe c`

6:?1 wctm cbplrts li ?6=.> bceecl` tl`s% snal`h l`ey tl Amc`o. Xmcs gcvns

peoan tl spnaueotcl`s tmot ct bcgmt fn tmn fn aloe rotmnr tmo` crl` lrn

tmot wcee enoh tmn hry fuek snatlr lut li tmn seubp. Aeorksl` -6:?1#

prnhcats tmot tmn wlreh tmnrboe aloe smcpbn`t wcee rnoam =?? BX c` 6:?1%

wmcam bno`s o > c`arnosn irlb tmn 6:?6 envnes. Qmcpbn`ts tl Oustroeco

o`h C`hl`nsco orn oesl nxpnatnh tl grlw c` tmn 6:?1,6:?8 pnrclh. L` tmn

ltmnr mo`h% tmn aloe smcpbn`ts tl Nurlpn orn nxpnatnh tl hnaec`n oitnr

tmn aloe"iunenh peo`ts orn nxpnatnh tl fn aelsnh hurc`g 6:?1 os port li

Nurlpn's Eorgn Albfustcl` Zeo`t Hcrnatcvn. Zorntl Qnaurctcns -6:?6#

nxpnat tl snn o surgn c` hnbo`h ilr alkc`g aloe% wmcam cs usnh c` tmn

stnnebokc`g prlanss% rcsc`g tl 8:b tl``ns c` 6:?1. Amc`os stnob aloe

cbplrts% usnh ilr nenatrcacty prlhuatcl`% wcee al`tc`un tl grlw tl bnnt

surgc`g plwnr hnbo`h. Ot prnsn`t% Amc`o rnecns l` stnob aloe ilr =: li

cts plwnr usogn o`h cts cbplrts movn tlppnh 66:b tl``ns c` 6:?6 o`h

tmnsn `ubfnrs orn nxpnatnh tl grlw. Xmnrn orn twl lfsnrvofen plsctcvn

hnbo`h ioatlrs c` tmn Amc`nsn aloe hnbo`h. Icrstey% tmn grlwc`g gop

fntwnn` Amc`nsn hlbnstca o`h cbplrtnh aloe prcan% wmcam cs blrn tmo`

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7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

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(6: pnr tl``n% bno`s tmot Amc`o wcee fn blrn rneco`t l` tmn cbplrtnh

aloe. Qnal`hey% tmn ao`aneeotcl` li slbn `uaenor plwnr prldnats c` Amc`o

bno`s tmot tmn hnbo`h ilr aloe cs glc`g tl rcsn c` tmn 6:?1,6:?8 pnrclh%

oetmlugm Amc`nsn glvnr`bn`t hlns try tl usn oetnr`otcvns suam osmyhrlplwnr o`h gnltmnrboe plwnr -BNCA% 6:?6#.

1.1 Groc` Hnbo`h

Oetmlugm groc` cs grlupnh wctm crl` lrn o`h aloe os li tmn bodlr fuek

albblhctcns% ct cs hciinrn`t c` fltm nal`lbca o`h smcppc`g tnrbs.

Qtlpilrh -6::3# ossnrts tmot wmnrnos crl` lrn o`h aloe ilrbo plort li o

aorniueey peo``nh c`hustrcoe lpnrotcl` -stnnebokc`g% n`nrgy prlhuatcl`#%

groc` cs o` ogrcaueturoe albblhcty o`h cs snosl`oe c` cts trohn os wnee os

crrngueor c` fltm vleubn o`h rlutn. Xmnsn quoectcns li groc` smcppc`g%

wmnrn ynt ogoc` hnbl`strotnh fy tmn borknt c` tmn eost inw ynors. ^QO

fnc`g tmn prc`acpen gelfoe nxplrtnr li groc` mos smlw` pllr rnsuets c`

6:?6 oel`g wctm Orgn`tc`o% Oustroeco% ^kroc`n o`h Vussco hun tl tmn

`ngotcvn cbpoat li tmn wnotmnr al`hctcl`s. Xmcs rnsuetnh c` o tltoe groc`

nxplrts snnc`g o hrlp fy 6: BX c` Outub` 6:?6% nquoe tl y"l"y hnaec`n li

= -FCBAL% 6:?6#. Xmn sobn tn`hn`ay wos lfsnrvofen c` Vussco% wmn`

c` Hnanbfnr 6:?6 Vusscos Ogrcaueturn Bc`cstry rnplrtnh tmot tltoe groc`

nxplrts wnrn hlw` fy ?7 albpornh tl prnvculus snosl`. Xmn smlrtioee

c` snoflr`n groc` nxplrts irlb fltm tmn ^Q o`h Vussco mos iurtmnr o`h

`ngotcvney cbpoatnh tmn smcppc g borknts. Os tmn groc` aorglns orn

usuoeey tro`splrtnh fy Quprobox o`h Mo`hyobx vnssnes tmn FQC o`h FMC

c`hcans movn oesl hnbl`strotnh tmot tmn borknt struggens wctm tmn

lvnrsuppey li tl``ogn% mlwnvnr tmcs sngbn`t mos fnn` hnoec`g wctm ct

buam fnttnr tmo` Aopnsczn o`h Zo`obox vnssnes. Xmn ^`ctnh Qtotns

Hnportbn`t li Ogrcaueturn nstcbotnh tmot tmn gelfoe groc` prlhuatcl` c`

6:?1 wlueh fn orlu`h 6=1 BX% elwnrc`g tmn prnvclus ilrnaost bohn

norecnr c` tmn 6:?6 fy > BX -Qnnkc`gOepmo% 6:?6#. Oaalrhc`g tl Aeorksl`

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7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

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tmn groc` smcpbn`ts ilr 6:?1 orn nxpnatnh tl hnaec`n fy ?8 l` o SlS

foscs. Xmn eorgnst hrlp c` groc nxplrt cs nxpnatnh tl albn irlb

Oustroeco. Aeorksl` stotn% tmn groc` smcpbn`ts irlb Oustroeco orn

nxpnatnh tl hrlp fy ?6 SlS tl 69.> BX c` tmn icrst quortnr li 6:?1.Oesl% tmn ^QHO prnhcats tmot Oustroeco's wmnot morvnst ilr 6:?1 wlueh

tltoe l ey 61 BX% bno c`g o hnaec`n li 66 SlS. Lvnroee% Borctcbn

Nxamo`gn C`ilrbotcl` An`trn -6:?6# soys tmot groc` hnbo`h mos o

plsctcvn lutellk% oetmlugm selwhlw` li tmn aorgl c`arnosn wcee fn tmn

trn`h li 6:?1,6:?8.

8. Al`aeuscl`

Xl al`aeuhn tmcs rnplrt ct cs iocr tl soy tmot aurrn`tey hry fuek

smcppc`g cs ecvc`g tmrlugm l`n li cts wlrst ynors c` tmn rnan`t mcstlry%

mlwnvnr tmnrn cs roy li mlpn. C` mcs c`tnrvcnw tl Mneen`ca Qmcppc`g @nws

?1

Qluran4 @SK Vnsnoram Grlup 6:?6

7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

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-6:?1#% Br. So``cs Lezcnrsky li C`tnrblhoe Qmcpfrlknrs soch4 &Oetmlugm

buam li tmn iu`hobn`toes plc`t tlworhs o`ltmnr hciicauet ynor% tmnrn cs o

sboee gecbpsn li mlpn c` tmn mlrczl` tmot wn boy fn surprcsnh o`h snn

tmc`gs tur` lut buam fnttnr tmn` wn c`ctcoeey nxpnatnh. Ct cs nxpnatnhtmot hry fuek vleubns orn glc`g tl grlw orlu`h 9 pnr o``ub lvnr tmn

`nxt ilur ynors% c`arnosc`g irlb tltoe gelfoe vleubns li 8.6f` tl``ns c`

6:?6 tl >.8f` tl``ns c` 6:?9. Xmn nor c`gs ilr aopsczn vnssnes cs

ilrnaost tl rcsn irlb orlu`h (?6%::: pnr c` 6:?6 tl (6=%::: pnr hoy c`

6:?>% wmcam truey cs o roy li gllh mlpn ilr tmn smcppc`g. Zo`obox

nor`c`gs orn nstcbotnh tl rcsn irlb (3%::: pnr hoy tl (6:%:::: hurc`g

tmcs pnrclh% oetmlugm tmcs wcee stcee fn fnelw tmn (6>%::: pnr hoy 6:::"

6:?? ovnrogn. Oetmlugm tmn amortnr borknt wcee rnboc` amoeen`gc`g c` tmn

smlrt tnrb% hry fuek vnssne hnbo`h c` hnohwncgmt tnrbs cs nxpnatnh tl

grlw 7.7 c` 6:?1 -BaAortmy% 6:?6#. Lvnroee% tmn borknt wcee stcee fn

suiinrc`g li tmn lvnrsuppey li tmn tl``ogn hurc`g 6:?1,6:?8 pnrclh

fnilrn hnbo`h o`h suppey rotclfoeo`an wcee stort tl albn foak c` peoan.

Xmn trohn pottnr`s orn blst eckney tl stoy tmn sobn wctm Osco` alu`trcns

fnc`g tmn prc`acpen cbplrtnrs li crl` lrn o`h aloe% wmcen Oustroeco `oh

Frozce wcee iurtmnr strn`gtmn` tmncr plsctcl` c` tmn crl` lrn o`h aloe

borknts. Xmn groc` suppey lutellk cs stcee burky os tmn prc`acpen nxplrtnrs

eckn ^Q o`h Vussco orn hnoec`g wctm al`snqun`ans li tmn pllr wnotmnr

al`hctcl`s% wmcam movn oiinatnh tmn arlps li 6:?6. Ct cs al`schnrnh tmot

groc suppey wcee pcak up hurc`g 6:?1,6:?8 pnrclh% mlwnvnr ^Q

o``lu`anh tmot tmncr oetmlugm tmncr nxplrts wcee grlw tmny wcee `lt fn

blrn tmo` c` tmn prnvclus ynors. Xl sub up tmn rnplrt% ct mos tl fn soch

tmot oetmlugm tmn aurrn`t stotn li tmn borknt cs `lt vnry n`alurogc`g%

tmn nxpnrts ogrnn tmot tmnrn orn prlspnats ilr cbprlvnbn`t li tmn

borknt o`h tmn ilrnaosts ilr tmn iuturn orn quctn lptcbcstca os tmn aurrn`t

smcppc`g ayaen cs albc`g aelsnr tl cts n`h.

?8

7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

15/19

>. Vninrn`an Ecst

Oeczohnm% O.M.% @lbckls% @.K. -6:?:#O` Lvnrvcnw li tmn Hry FuekQmcppc`g C`hustry. C`4 Grobbn`ls% A. -nh#. Xmn Mo`hfllk li Borctcbn

Nal`lbcas o`h Fusc`nss. Qnal`h Nhctcl`. El`hl`4 Eelyhs Ecst.

FCBAL -6:?6# HVS F^EK QMCZZC@G " IENNX GVLWXM VNBOC@Q MCGMNV

XMO@ HNBO@H GVLWXM% F^X IVNCGMX VOXNQ BOS GL ^Z [l`ec`nR

Ovoceofen ot4

mttps4,,www.fcbal.lrg,Vnplrts,Borknt\O`oeyscs,6:?6,?:?>\HryFuekQBL

L6:?6">.ospx [Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

FCBAL -6:?6# HVS F^EK QMCZZC@G " WCEE ALOE BOKN ^Z ILV XMN

HCQQOZLC@XBN@X C@ WMNOX N]ZLVXQ< [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttps4,,www.fcbal.lrg,Vnplrts,Borknt\O`oeyscs,6:?6,?6??\HryFuekQBL

L6:?6"9.ospx [Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

FCBAL -6:?1# XMN QMCZZC@G BOVKNX C@ 6:?6 O@H ELLKC@G ILVWOVH

[l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttps4,,www.fcbal.lrg,Vnplrts,Borknt\O`oeyscs,6:?1,:?:8\Vnienatcl`s.o

spx [Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

Amc`o Crl` ) Qtnne Osslacotcl` -6:?6# Borknt Lutellk. ILVWOVH

[l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4 mttp4,,www.amc`onstnne.alb,bbc\n`,ou.mtb

[Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

Aeorksl`s -6:?6# Qtotn li tmn Hry Fuek Qmcppc`g Borknt o`h cts

Zrlspnats. [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttp4,,www.casuon.on,casuon,Irl`tn`h,phi,HryFuekQmcppc`gBorknto`hctsZr

lspnats.phi[Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

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7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

16/19

Mneen`ca Qmcppc`g @nws -6:?1# Qboee rllb ilr lptcbcsb ilr tmn

prlspnats li tmn hry fuek borknt os `nt iennt grlwtm cs selwc`g hlw`

[l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4 mttp4,,www.mneen`casmcppc`g`nws.alb,@nws.ospx8:179i8"o=6>"83n="foof"9o1171n961o7 [Oaanssnh?6,:6,6:?6R

Borc`nNxamo`gn C`ilrbotcl` An`trn -6:?6# Hryfuek Borknt Vnvcnw

o`h Lutellk [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttp4,,www.borc`nbl`ny.alb,sctns,oee,tmnbns,borc`nbl`ny,ilrubs,KLV

?6,prnsn`totcl`s,:31:6:Dnl`g"Ml6:Snlb.phi

BaAortmy %E.% -6:?6# Hry fuek rnalrhs cts wlrst ynor c` quortnr li o

an`tury. [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4 mttp4,,www.eelyhsecst.alb,ee,snatlr,hry"

aorgl,ortcaen8?86>3.nan [Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

BaAortmy %E.% -6:?6# Snor li nxtrnbn poc`. [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttp4,,www.eelyhsecst.alb,ee,snatlr,hry"aorgl,ortcaen8?8::1.nan

[Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

BaAortmy %E.% -6:?1# Hry fuek `nors tur`c`g plc`t [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttp4,,www.eelyhsecst.alb,ee,snatlr,hry"aorgl,ortcaen8?>1:7.nan

[Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

Zorntl Qnaurctcns -6:?6# Borknt Lvnrvcnw [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttps4,,l`ec`n.porntlsna.alb,Borknt [Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

VQ Zeotlu -6:?6# Albblhcty smcppc`g borknts; Qtotus o`h Lutellk .

[l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4 mttp4,,www.peotlu.alb,h``\sctn,Ec`kAecak.ospx66 [Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

Qnnkc`gOepmo -6:?6# Movn Wn Qnn` Xmn Flttlb C` Xmn Hry Fuek

C`hustry< [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4 mttp4,,snnkc`goepmo.alb,ortcaen,?:818>?"

?9

7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

17/19

movn"wn"snn`"tmn"flttlb"c`"tmn"hry"fuek"c`hustry [Oaanssnh

?6,:6,6:?6R

Qtlpilrh% B. -6::3# Borctcbn Nal`cbcas 1rh Nh. ^K4 Vlutenhgn.

^@AXOH Qnarntorcot -6:??#Hnvnelpbn`ts li c`tnr`otcl`oe Qnoflr`n

Xrohn. Vnvcnw li Borctcbn Xro`splrt 6:??. ^@CXNH @OXCL@Q

Z^FECAOXCL@% Qwctznreo`h.

9. Fcfeclgropmy

Fronbor Qnosalpn -6:?6# Xmn Lutellk ilr tmn Hry Fuek Borknt

Ctoeco` styen. [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttp4,,www.bornilrub.alb,BOVNILV^B6:?6ZVNQN@XOXCL@Q,DLM@\

HO@[email protected][Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

Hrnwry Borctcbn Vnsnoram -6:?1# Aopnsczn Hciicauetcns Alu`tnrnh fy

Qboeenr Ynssne Goc`s [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttp4,,www.hrnwry.al.uk,`nws.pmp

7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

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7. Xofens o`h Icgurns

Dueeco` Osslacotns -6:??# Fuek Albblhcty Gelfoe Lvnrvcnw [l`ec`nR

Ovoceofen ot4mttp4,,dueco`ossla.alb,Dueco`6:OAZO6:Gelfoe

6:Hry6:Fuek6:"6:Ougust6:6:??.phi [Oaanssnh

?6,:6,6:?6R

@SK -6:?6# 6:?6 Ioatfllk [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttp4,,www.`yk.alb,n`gecsm,cr,ecfrory,ioat:?,phi,6:?6\ioatfll

k:?\?:.phi[Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

^@AXOH -6:?6# Vnvcnw li Borctcbn Xro`splrt 6:?6. [l`ec`nR

Ovoceofen ot4

mttp4,,u`atoh.lrg,n`,Zufecaotcl`sEcfrory,rbt6:?6\n`.phi

[Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

VQ Zeotlu -6:?1# Fuek Icxturns Vnplrt [l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttp4,,rnplrts.peotlu.alb,IcxturnVnplrt,Zogns,FuekIcxturns.os

px [Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

?=

7/23/2019 Dry Bulk Market Review and Outlook

19/19

VQ Zeotlu -6:?6# Albblhcty smcppc`g borknts; Qtotus o`h Lutellk

[l`ec`nR Ovoceofen ot4

mttp4,,www.peotlu.alb,h``\sctn,Ec`kAecak.ospx66 [Oaanssnh ?6,:6,6:?6R

?3