Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012 LCRA Firm Water Customer Meeting January 26, 2011 Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist.

Drought Update; What’s in Store for

2012

LCRA Firm Water Customer MeetingJanuary 26, 2011

Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist

Wednesday’s Rainfall (thru 10 am)

Driest Calendar Year on Record for Texas

2011 Texas Weather Statistics

• 14.88 inches. Driest calendar year on record! Previous record was 14.99 inches in 1917.

• Average Temperature 67.2 degrees. Second hottest year on record. Hottest year was 67.5 degrees set in 1921.

2011 Weather Records

• Amarillo, Lubbock, Wichita Falls, Victoria had their driest years on record.

• Austin, College Station, Midland, San Angelo and Brownsville had their hottest years on record

Rainfall Since Oct. 1st

Departure from Normal Since 10/1

Unusual December Jet Stream Pattern

Current Jet Stream

Typical Patterns Associated with La Niña

October 4, 2011

Drought Monitor Comparison

Now In the Second Year of La Niña

January 6, 2011

January 23, 2012

La Nina

WetDry

Temperature Precipitation

NWS Spring into Summer Rainfall Outlook

Drought Outlook through April

Rain Needed to End the Drought in 3 Months

Rain Needed to End the Drought in 6 Months

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Colorado State Tropical Storm Outlook for 2012

THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance. (14-17 Storms)

THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance. (12-15 Storms)

Take Home Points• No clear end in sight to the ongoing

drought; it could last well into 2012.• Conditions could easily get worse before

seeing any improvement.• Scattered rains will continue winter into

early spring but not heavy enough to significantly change the drought.

• Intense droughts are hard to break.• Some models trending toward El Nino this

fall.

Bob Rose

Meteorologist, LCRA

[email protected]

512-473-3350