Drought in the West: Short-Range Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning Regional Planning Douglas Le Comte Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC NOAA/CPC Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land Use Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land Use Collaboration Collaboration August 7, 2008 August 7, 2008
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Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning
Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning. Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land Use Collaboration August 7, 2008. Outline. Current Drought Situation Medium Range and Seasonal Forecasts Historical Perspective - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Drought in the West: Short-Range Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Forecasts to Assist with Local and
Regional PlanningRegional PlanningDouglas Le ComteDouglas Le Comte
NOAA/CPCNOAA/CPC
Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land Use Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land Use CollaborationCollaboration
August 7, 2008August 7, 2008
OutlineOutline
• Current Drought SituationCurrent Drought Situation
• Medium Range and Seasonal ForecastsMedium Range and Seasonal Forecasts
• Historical PerspectiveHistorical Perspective
• Climate Change Climate Change
Dust Event Honda Proving Center Dust Event Honda Proving Center June 4 2008 Cantil CAJune 4 2008 Cantil CA
Western Streamflow ForecastsWestern Streamflow Forecastshttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/sssf.plhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/sssf.pl
California Drought SummaryCalifornia Drought Summary(from Dep’t of Water Resources Executive Summary)(from Dep’t of Water Resources Executive Summary)
• Water Year precipitation = 85% of averageWater Year precipitation = 85% of average
• Runoff = 60% of averageRunoff = 60% of average
• Reservoirs = 75% of averageReservoirs = 75% of average
• For Northern Sierra, March-June = driest since For Northern Sierra, March-June = driest since records began in 1921 (3.4 in)records began in 1921 (3.4 in)
Web Resources for Drought and ForecastsWeb Resources for Drought and Forecasts• Climate Prediction Center for Medium and Long Range Forecasts: Climate Prediction Center for Medium and Long Range Forecasts:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• National Integrated Drought Informaton System for the new drought National Integrated Drought Informaton System for the new drought portal: portal: www.drought.govwww.drought.gov
• California Applications Program and the California Climate Change California Applications Program and the California Climate Change Center: Center: http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/
• California Climate Tracker: California Climate Tracker: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/monitor/cal-mon/index.htmlhttp://www.wrcc.dri.edu/monitor/cal-mon/index.html
Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI) StatisticsPalmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI) Statistics for California Climate Divisionsfor California Climate Divisions
Potential March 2009 Conditions Based on July 2008 Conditions & July-March Changes Following Past July’s with Similar Conditions
Good odds for (Palmer) drought ending coastal areas next winterGood odds for (Palmer) drought ending coastal areas next winter
CFS* Model Winter ForecastCFS* Model Winter Forecast
Probability of Probability of Anomalous Anomalous Precipitation (as of Precipitation (as of Aug. 5)Aug. 5)
Bottom line: Bottom line: History suggests History suggests significant relief significant relief unlikely before unlikely before December, and December, and forecasts for next forecasts for next winter are winter are ambivalent, but ambivalent, but some dynamic some dynamic models are tilting models are tilting dry.dry.
Climate Model Forecasts:PrecipitationClimate Model Forecasts:PrecipitationCalifornia Climate Change CenterCalifornia Climate Change Center
Less runoff for Less runoff for California and the California and the SouthwestSouthwest
““Prediction is very difficult, especially Prediction is very difficult, especially about the futureabout the future” ” Niels Bohr, Danish Niels Bohr, Danish