Drought in Kenya and its Humanitarian consequences.

Drought in Kenya and its Humanitarian consequences

IntroductionArid and Semi-Arid lands (ASAL) cover about

88% of the total area of the country. Arid areas - 125 and 500 mm of rainfall p.a. Semi arid areas - 400 and 1250 mm of rainfall

p.a.The economic mainstay - livestock production. Region owns 50% of Kenya’s livestock populationRegion experiencing frequent and more severe

droughts due to climate change.Increasing frequency of drought contributing to

accelerating poverty in the ASAL areas (>70%).

-contd

Drought causes a reduction in the natural potential of the land and depletion of surface and ground resources.

It has negative repercussions on the living conditions and the economic development of the people affected by it.

Currently, the lowest HDIs are found in areas frequently hit by drought

Environmental problems

Increased pests and diseases, soil erosion, habitat and landscape degradation, a decrease in air and water quality, and increased risk of fires

In prolonged droughts, natural environments fail to rebound and plant and animal species can suffer tremendously, and over time causing desertification

Negative coping strategies for survival such as increased over-exploitation of accessible natural resources, helps to aggravate desertification and hold up development.

Economic impacts

A decline in crop yields and livestock productivity implies a reduction in income for farmers, those with economic ties to it, and an increase in the market price of products

Acute lack of water & pasture results in livestock and wildlife losses

A prolonged drought will cause unemployment of farmers and retailers,

Diversion of development funds to emergencyIncreased poverty and malnutrition

Social impacts

Disputes between users of available natural resources, inequalities in resource allocation or access, disparities in relief assistance,

A decline in health, poor sanitation, increased poverty and eventually death.

Prolonged, separation of families may occur due to migration causing food insecurity, malnutrition and increased risk of mortality

Desperate search for water & pasture will intensify clashes, livestock raids, banditry and social unrest.

Education – children schooling affected distance and poor performance

Drought preparedness

Drought is a slow onset disaster,It is relatively easy to tell when one is

coming and can plan for intervention measures.

Measures include:Preparedness and contingency planningMitigation and Relief - to reduce the

impacts Recovery activities to restore social

dignity

Early Warning System

Provides timely, reliable drought status information used in decision making and response planning at national, district and community levels

Importance of EWS

Information on current status (stage) of drought

Information on risk of food insecurity or humanitarian emergency

Information on risk of loses Recommendations for necessary actions

at each stage of drought and/or Risk level

Indicators MonitoredEnvironmental indicators (Stability Indicators)

Rainfall performance Condition of Natural Vegetation and

Pasture Water Sources and Availability and Access

Rural economy indicators (Food Availability) Food Production from households

(livestock and crops) Availability of food commodities in the

market

Access to food

Prices of food commoditiesCrops – maize, beans, posho, riceLivestock – main species cattle, goats, sheep and camel.

Income from crops, livestock, and others

Welfare IndicatorsNutrition StatusHealth statusCoping strategies – CSITerms of tradeOngoing interventions

What is monitored Each quantitative indicator is analyzed by:

Sentinel site, LZ, Division, District

Compare:

Trends

Deviations from normal or average

Long term average and current situation

Assign Drought Status

January to mid-March

Short dry spell

Mid-March to May

Long rains -unreliable

June to Mid-October

Long dry spell

Mid-October to December

Short rains - reliable

Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods

High temperatures,livestock migration,herd separation,livestock marketing,land preparation , harvesting , dry p[lanting,

Pasture surveys, mating, planting, weeding, selection &breeding of livestocktraditional ceremonies, Weaving,restocking of livestock,

High labour demand.

High temperatures, windy, and dusty, calving, kidding, harvesting, migration, marketing, land preparation,Destocking, culling, pasture &browse surveys, caravan water treking,

Restocking of livestock, Breeding, planting , green harvest, crafts and weaving, calving and kidding period

Mixed farming and marginal agriculture livelihoods

Short rain harvestLand preparations, planting, weeding, harvesting,

Planting, weeding, Lambing and kidding

long rains harvest (green and dry) in June to July,Land preparation - September

Land preparation, planting, weeding, Lambing , calving and kidding

Seasonal Calendar

Illustration of droughtRAINFALL DATA FOR LAMURIA STATION IN LAIKIPIA EAST.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

MONTH

RA

INF

AL

L IN

MM

MEAN AVERAGE 55 65 90 122 40 28 42 35 22 58 107 58

2009 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Fg 1:Namanga: Agro-Pastoral (Jan - Dec.'09)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1Jan

1Feb

1Mar

1Apr

1May

1Jun

1Jul

1Aug

1Sep

1Oct

1Nov

1Dec

Month/Dekad

NDVI

051015202530354045505560

Rainfall (mm)

RFERFEavg

NDVI_09NDVIavg

Laikipia Kajiado

KilifiKajiado

Illustration of drought- RFE maps

ALALE

SIGOR

KASEI

KACHELIBA

SOOK

KONGELAI

CHESEGONCHEPARERIA

LELANTAPACH

KAPENGURIA

August Rainfall (mm)0 - 1010 - 2020 - 4040 - 8080 - 120120 - 160160 - 200200 - 250>250mmNo Data

Divisional Boundary

10 0 10 20 30 Kilometers

N

Current Average Rainfall DistributionWest Pokot - August 2009

Turkana

Baringo

MarkwetTransNzoia

Uganda

ALALE

SIGOR

KASEI

KACHELIBA

SOOK

KONGELAI

CHESEGONCHEPARERIA

LELANTAPACH

KAPENGURIA

10 0 10 20 30 Kilometers

N

Longterm Average Rainfall DistributionWest Pokot - August

Turkana

Baringo

MarkwetTransNzoia

Uganda

Longterm RFE (mm)0 - 1010 - 2020 - 4040 - 8080 - 120120 - 160160 - 200200 - 250>250mmNo Data

Divisional Boundary

Effects of drought

Maize crop under moisture stress

current average maize price vs average price (200 - 008)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

months

pric

e (

ksh

s)

Avg 2000-: 19 16 16 15 18 19 20 19 18 20 21 20

2009 33 33 35 42 43 44 48 48

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

current average beans price vs average price (200 - 008)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

months

pric

e (

ksh

s)

Avg 2000-: 47 47 52 51 52 54 57 54 48 47 47 46

2009 78 82 86 86 90 91 88 90

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

A dry river Bed

Elephants scooping water from a dry river bed

Severe Drought

Livestock watering in a drying river bed

Early Effects of Drought

A shared water source for livestock and humans

The water is untreated but consumed directly

Water point in North Eastern Kenya

Boreholes must work throughout, 18-24hrsWomen and children waiting for water

-Women trekking from water points-Long distances and long waiting hours at water points and untreated water

AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD RETURN DISTANCE TO WATER SOURCES,COMPARED TO NORMAL SITUATION AS AT AUGUST 2009

,KAJ IADO DISTRICT.

0 5 10 15 20 25

Boreholes and Shal low

wel l s

Spr ings

Pipel ines

DISTANCE IN KMS

Normal Kms to the source

Average Kms to the watersource

WATER SOURCES AND PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD USING THEM, COMPARED TO A NORMAL SITUATION AS AT

AUGUST 2009

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Boreholes& Shallow

wells

Rivers & springs

pipelines

Dams &Pans

PERCENTAGE OF HH DEPENDING ON THE SOURCE

% of households that dependon the source normally

% of households depending onthe source

Water availability, distances, waiting time at source changed Increased dependence and pressure on permanent water sources

AVERAGE RETURN DISTANCES TO WATER SOURCES COMPARED TO NORMAL

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

J AN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

J UN

J UL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

DISTANCE IN KMS

2009

YEAR 2005-2008

Wildlife grazing alongside livestock

-A source of human–wildlife conflict-Encounters with fierce wild animals-Self defense and loss of life

ALALE

SIGOR

KASEI

KACHELIBA

SOOK

KONGELAICHESEGON

CHEPARERIA

LELANTAPACH

KAPENGURIA

Map showing Livestock Concentration Against Rainfall Distribution in August 2009

August Rainfall (mm)0 - 1010 - 2020 - 4040 - 8080 - 120120 - 160160 - 200200 - 250>250mmNo Data

Livestock ConcetrationsDivisional Boundary

40 0 40 Kilometers

N

Uganda

Turkana

Baringo

Marakwet

Trans Nzoia

No Rainfall RecordedLivestock Deaths Reported

Increased Movementof LivestockHigh Insecurity

-Migration towards common dry season grazing sites.

-Potential hazards include:Encounter with diseases, conflict, raiders, and prolonged family separation ,

Livestock concentration sites in West Pokot district

Severe drought effects on livestock

Loss of income, livelihood,Pastoralist dropouts,Public health problem

-Land preparation using oxen plough

-Feeding & restocking necessary

A livestock market

AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES FROM VARIOUS HOUSE HOLDS ACROSS THE LAIKIPIA RENGION

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

MONTH

PR

ICE

S IN

KS

H P

ER

AN

IMA

L

Average price for 2003 to 2005 9000 9506 15000 14000 10000 11000 7100 9708 9456 8350 8900 7575

Average price for 2009 15000 15000 8167 8000 5000 4000 3500 4000

JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPT OCT NOV DEC

AVERAGE PRICE OF POSHO ACROSS THE DISRICTS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

MONTH

PR

ICE

PE

R K

G

AVERAGE PRICE OF POSHO FOR 2003 TO 2005 21 21 21 23 19 25 27 29 29 28 29 25

AVERAGE PRICE OF POSHO FOR 2009 35 39 41 43 43 43.6 43 50

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULYAUGUS

TSEPT OCT NOV DEC

AVERAGE GOAT PRICE ACROSS THE LAIKIPIA DISTRICTS.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

MONTH

KS

H

AVERAGE GOAT PRICE FROM 2003 TO 2005 1000 1000 1000 1053 1281 1231 1315 1216 1246 1304 1240 1000

AVERAGE GOAT PRICE FROM 2009 1500 1090 1229 1000 1000 700 650 700

JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPT OCT NOV DEC

Bad road conditions and insecurity hampers markets access

Increased number of children who are malnourished and at risk of Malnutrition

Improve IYCF, immunization, micro-nutrient supplementation, De-worming, improve access to health services, scale-up selective feeding programs.

A normal day

Experiencing childhood?

Current Nutriotion Status for Childern under 5 years vs Average Nutritional Status(2006-2008)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

% Ch

ildren

with

MUA

C < 1

35mm MUAC < 135 mm 2006 - 2008

MUAC < 135mm 2009

MUAC < 135 mm 2006 - 2008 12.15 10.9 10.5 11 13 15.5 17.45 18.15 21 22.75 22.5 22.55

MUAC < 135mm 2009 24.5 27.4 25.5 26.6 24.7 28.6 26.1 26.3

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Concrete strategies for ASAL development

Devpnt of reliable water sourcesDevelopment of appropriate mechanisms for livestock

improvement, mgt and marketingAdoption of appropriate agricultural techniques (DTC,

Irrigation, Water harversting, Soil conservation), Capacity building at all levelsProvision of necessary infrastructure Conflict managent and resolutionImprove health and nutrition practices ( IYCF, primary

health care practices, SFP, micronutrient supplimemts.

Long term measuresEnhance sustainable development strategies beyond

survival and subsistence livelihood strategiesEmpowering communities so that they can

effectively identify, implement and sustain their development priorities.

Fostering an enabling enviroment through appropriate policy, advocacy and reaserch.

DSGs should ensure that there is interagency collaboration and genuine partnership in addressing community development and food security issues (GOK, UN agencies, NGOs, community organizations and leaders)

Effective preparedness and mitigation measures to reduce vulnerability and impact of natrural and man made shocks

Improve the effectiveness of response mechanisms

WHEN?