Drivers of Change National Conservation Training Center Shepherdstown, WV 10 August 2004 Anthony C. Janetos Vice President The Heinz Center
Feb 25, 2016
Drivers of Change National Conservation Training CenterShepherdstown, WV10 August 2004
Anthony C. JanetosVice President
The Heinz Center
Drivers of Change
• Four main drivers to address:– Climate change– Water quantity and quality– Invasive species– Impacts of biotech/bioengineering
• I will add two more to think about:– Land-use change– Population pressure
So What?
• Why should we care?• Ethical concerns for conservation and
preservation of natural heritage• Practical concerns for delivery of
ecosystem services: fiber, food, water, soil fertility, atmospheric composition and climate, biological diversity
• Both priced and unpriced services
Drivers
• Overall goal: Conserving biodiversity by sustaining ecological functioning
• What are the main scientific issues for each driver?
• What are potential consequences for biodiversity/ecosystem functioning?
• Personal view for each
Climate Change
• Major challenge over next several decades
• Changes in atmosphere well-documented
• Changes in ecology beginning to be documented
• What can we adapt to?
Global CO2 Concentration
1800 2000 1600 1400 1200 260
280
300
320
340
360
800 1000
CO
2 con
cent
ratio
n (p
pm)
Ocean
Uptake:2.3 ± 0.8
Fossil Fuel Plus Cement Production:6.3 ± 0.6
Net Emissions from Tropical Land-Use Change:1.6 ± 0.8
Terrestrial UptakeInferred Sink: 2.3 ± 1.3
Storage in Atmosphere: 3.3 ± 0.2
Decade of the 1990’s
General Comparisons with IPCC
• Agriculture more vulnerable in developing world• As much as a third of forested ecosystems vulnerable to
some degree• Health risks also appear asymmetrical• Developing countries appear to be more vulnerable to the
same degree of atmospheric change• Even developed countries have significant vulnerabilities
Challenges
• Ecosystem response to multiple stresses, climate change in a broader context
• Degree to which CO2 fertilization operates
• Dependencies of impacts on particular CO2 concentrations• Costs and effectiveness of adaptation strategies• Interaction of domestic and international effects• Linkages to other issues, especially losses of biological
diversity
Water Quantity and Quality• Concerns over water issues differ from region to
region• Some indication in precipitation data of increase
in extreme events• Anthropogenic water use not as well understood
as we might like• Monitoring for quality not as comprehensive as
we need• Conflicts between human use and use in/by
ecosystems
Invasive Species
• Already an important management issue within US
• Annual economic impacts measured in hundreds of $$ billions
• Now understand that invasives rank second only to habitat loss as driver of extinction trends
• Monitoring, prevention, control
Biotechnology/Bioengineering
• Most of the public focus has been on GMO foods
• But understand relatively little about potential for gene exchange from released organisms (plants or animals)
• Focus on what the traits are, not so much how they were produced
Land-Use Change
• Biggest changes over past 40-50 years• Acknowledged to be the biggest
contributor to losses of biological diversity
• What sort of changes can we document over the past few decades?
• What changes might be in store for US?
Main areas of deforestation and forest degradation over the last twenty years (1980-2000) - World
Main areas of degraded land over the last twenty years (1980-2000) - World
Main areas of change in cropland extent - World
Population Pressure
• In excess of 6 billion people globally• Projections of population today have
two characteristics:– Top out around 8-9 billion in next 50 years– Stay fairly steady
• Most growth in developing world, BUT• US has shown 2-3% growth per year
Population density in 1995 and most populated and changing cities in 1990-2000 - world
Energy in Today’s World
World Energy 1850-2000
050
100150200250300350400450500
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Year
EJ/
year
GasOilCoalNuclearHydro +Biomass
Fossil fuels drove most of the growth & were almost 80% of supply in 2000.
Some Closing Thoughts
• These drivers clearly have potential to influence ability to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem function
• Need to document and understand the drivers themselves
• Need to develop both adaptive and mitigative strategies based on best science
Closing Thoughts 2
• Development of indicators of change necessary
• Periodic reporting on state of diversity and ecosystem functioning/characteristics
• Periodic assessment of state of knowledge and understanding