The World in 2020: Drivers of Change for Healthcare Dr Tim Jones – Programme Director – 31 May 2012
Drivers of change for healthcare - 31 May 2012
Aug 20, 2015
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The World in 2020: Drivers of Change for Healthcare
Dr Tim Jones – Programme Director – 31 May 2012
Organisa4ons planning for the future seek both Inside-‐Out and Outside-‐In views to gain a rich, credible perspec4ve of what will and what could possibly happen
Context Looking Forward
The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight programme that ran throughout 2010 and engaged expert input
from over 1500 organisa4ons to gain a unique global view
From this first Future Agenda programme, we highlighted 52 core insights which give us a view on emerging drivers of change to challenge exis4ng perspec4ves
Context Core Insights
By 2020 we will add another 750m people to the planet, most in places least able to accommodate them
Imbalanced Popula4on Growth Certain4es
We will see economic, physical and poli4cal shortages of key materials that will result in major changes in our perspec4ves
Key Resource Constraints Certain4es
The centre of gravity of global wealth accelerates back to the East with decreased influence for the US and Europe
Asian Wealth ShiX Certain4es
We will be connected everywhere -‐ everything that can benefit from a network connec4on will have one
Ubiquitous Data Access Certain4es
Implica?ons for the Future of Healthcare?
Around the world there is evident agreement on some of the core challenges for healthcare as well as many sugges4ons of how to
improve the efficiency and effec4veness of its delivery
Challenges and Internal Solu4ons
On both sides of the Atlan4c, health experts and commentators alike have been busy iden4fying lists of similar op4ons for the future of healthcare in the West
Challenges and Internal Solu4ons
• Technology to cure chronic disease • Single healthcare systems • Preventa6ve medicine has precedence • Focus on the vulnerable • Focus on the individual • Priva6ze everything • Remote support • Public healthcare priority • Decouple spend from GDP growth
Most see some common catalysts for change that will improve healthcare… But many are choosing to ignore two issues that
could be the most significant for las4ng impact
Catalysts for Change
New Technologies +
New Business Models +
Different Payment Systems +
Change of Societal Values +
Poli?cal Will
From Outside there seems to be Four Key Future Challenges
#1: The End of Chimerica #2: Compe?ng for Cash (in the West) #3: Affordable Ageing #4: Personaliza?on Premium
Four Future Challenges
#1: The End of Chimerica
By 2015, 32 people an hour will be moving into Shanghai, 39 into Kinshasa and Jakarta, 42 into Mumbai and Karachi, 50
into Dhaka and 58 into Lagos.
Developing World Urbanisa4on Locality
By 2020 1bn extra consumers will enter the middle class with increasing spending power in some key countries
New Middle Class
The regaining of global leadership by China and India is happening far faster than many have been predic4ng
Asian Wealth ShiX Certain4es
Year at which GDP of China and India pass those of other countries Goldman Sachs 2004
The economic rise of Asia and the need for an alterna4ve to the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency produces
a parallel broad-‐basket Asian Currency Unit
Third Global Currency Wealth
But to be effec4ve and affordable healthcare for the next billion has to be delivered at less than 10% of current costs
Value Focus China 2011 Net Worth
2.3% Popula6on 30m
Credit Suisse -‐ Global Wealth Report 2011
$1000
37.0% Popula6on 499m
54.9% Popula6on 740m
5.8% Popula6on 31m
$10,000
$100,000
Average Fortune per capita
Four Future Challenges
#1: The End of Chimerica Asia not America will set the standards
Four Future Challenges
#2: Compe?ng for Cash (in the West)
Current US Government spending is under increased pressure and looking forward
all departments are compe4ng for a smaller pie
$995
$1,097
$892 $904
$753
$324
$278 $140
$552 $339
Total US Government Spending 2011 ($bn)
Pensions
Healthcare
Educa6on
Defense
Welfare
Protec6on
Transporta6on
Govt
Other
Interest
Intelligent UAVs choose their vic4ms themselves as the race for more efficient military influence leads
to the prolifera4on of assassina4on tools
Drone Wars Security
Increasing governmental focus on energy security and climate change drives the investment in
large-‐scale solar as the leading renewable supply
Solar Sunrise Security
With diabetes consuming up to 5% of global GDP, stabilising the obesity epidemic will be the primary
focus for many na4ons’ healthcare priori4es
Diabesity Health
Medical tourism goes main-‐stream as low-‐cost cardiac surgery and broader healthcare provision join
den4stry and cosme4c surgery to have global impact
Mass Medical Tourism Health
Four Future Challenges
#2: Compe?ng for Cash (in the West) Healthcare funding falls below GDP Growth
Four Future Challenges
#3: Affordable Ageing
A wealthier, healthier, older genera4on increasingly engage in more ac4ve lives, having extended careers but EU
dependency ra4os demand doubling of produc4vity
Ac4ve Elderly Happiness
India believes that within 30 years it will gain a ‘demographic dividend’ over China as the one-‐child policy impacts the economic balance of Chinese society
China’s Demographic Happiness
Robo4c assisted care and remote monitoring provide viable support for the sick and elderly so that people can stay home for longer -‐ as long as we can work out the business model.
Automated People Care Health
The escala4ng cost of suppor4ng the aged beyond natural lifecycles may lead to wider acceptance
of assisted suicide in many regions
Systemic Euthanasia
Health
Four Future Challenges
#3: Affordable Ageing Healthcare for the young will be
priori?sed over sick-‐care for the old
Four Future Challenges
#4: Personaliza?on Premium
More customised foods, blur the line between pharmaceu4cals and food as neutragenomics allow individualised diets to fit gene4c profiles
Pharma Foods
Health
The enthusiasm in many quarters for consumer focused func4onal foods will soon come head-‐to-‐head
with the margin reality for more efficient retailers
Func4onal Foods
Health
To date only one food company has had a major business success from premium personaliza4on
Mass Personaliza4on
Happiness
Four Future Challenges
#4: Personaliza?on Premium Consumers only pay a marginal premium for personaliza?on no ma`er how beneficial
Implica?ons Summary
“The next decade is not likely to be the 4me for change, but instead a 4me that ‘stressors’ on the healthcare system become progressively evident.”
§ The issues are all known if not openly shared
§ Affordable healthcare NOT Sickcare is the priority
§ Support outside of hospital is pivotal
§ Preven?on needs proven business case
§ Many systems need a fundamental rethink
To discuss this further please contact: Dr Tim Jones Programme Director Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 +44 780 1755 054 [email protected] futureagenda.org
The world’s leading open foresight program
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