More Jobs, Money, and Tax Benefits on the Horizon or Loss of Tourism, Fisheries, and Ecosystem Services (Truths, ½ Truths, Lies?) A FEW Facts and Questions: Offshore Oil/Gas and Wind Roger D. Shew Earth and Ocean Sciences/Env. Sciences Depts. UNC-Wilmington Wilmington, NC
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drilling-plan-sidelined-indefinitely-11556208950 NCBIP Offshore.pdf•January 27, 2015: BOEM announces next step to expand safe and responsible domestic energy production with development
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More Jobs, Money, and Tax Benefits on the Horizonor Loss of Tourism, Fisheries, and Ecosystem Services
• January 27, 2015: BOEM announces next step to expand safe and responsible domestic energy production with development of nation’s OCS Oil and Gas Leasing Program for 2017-2022.
Secretary Zinke Signs Orders Implementing America-First Offshore Energy Strategy5/1/2017
5/3/2017 -Environmentalists Concerned new Executive Order would allow drilling within previous 50-mile buffer
12/20/2016
2019-2024
President-elect Donald J. Trump has pledged to increase domestic oil and gas production, including more offshore drilling and leases on federal lands.
Barack Obama permanently bans offshore drilling in Atlantic and Arctic before Trump takes officeThe White House made a joint announcement with Canada to protect the waters along their coasts20 December 2016
“Beaufort and Chukchi seas saying they were “too environmentally sensitive to drill.”
March 29, 2019: U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason said President Donald Trump exceeded his authority when he issued a 2017 executive order that reopened large parts of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas to offshore oil leasing.
The decision blocks oil development in some 128 million acres of the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans.
Ruling, yes, but other reality/realities also:1. Political (Republicans opposed)/Public opinion2. Reserves/Onshore Black Shale (hydraulic
fracturing and horizontal drilling)
Lawsuit hinged on a single line in the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act of 1953, which governs offshore leasing: “The President of the United States may, from time to time, withdraw from disposition any of the unleased lands of the outer Continental Shelf.”
Section 12-A. It allows a president to remove ocean areas from leasing consideration.
More Americans oppose than favor increased
offshore drilling JANUARY 30, 2018
• NATIONAL: Oppose: 51% Favor: 42%• 10% change since 2014• Democrats Oppose (71%); Republicans Favor (70%)• Younger Oppose; Older Favor• Coastal Zone (<25 miles) more opposed
Late Triassic/Early Jurassic Reconstruction of Continents
Continents once joined; Conjugate boundary/analog suggests possible reserves in NC OCS like those in Africa
May 2018: Future potential: Mauritania and Senegal are set
to become new players in natural gas supply
Tortue Field: 15 TCFG; Total Area Est. 50 – 100 TCFGhttps://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/bp-magazine/conversations/emma-delaney-mauritania-senegal-gas-development.html
What is the Real Story on Seismic Surveys in Our Oceans
• Impacts of seismic not fully known but repeated and largest “sounds” may and probably do have impact
• But Saying that seismic kills and injures in all cases is not true
• Need to take mitigation steps:
1. Spotters on ships/Thermal Imaging2. Passive acoustic monitoring3. Ramp up seismic signal4. Time of year avoidance5. Exclusion zones (critical areas)6. Spacing
Need more studies of effects/new results give cautions
PURPOSE of EIS is assessment
Sonar is not Seismic TestingWind does require testing but more local/less energy
• Researchers have found that the noise from air-gun blasts can kill zooplankton
at distances of up to 1.2 kilometres away — more than two orders of magnitude
farther than previously thought.
• Zooplankton abundance dropped 64% within 1 hour of survey and there were
200-300% more dead plankton than measured before the survey (up to 1.2 km away)
• US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is
considering 6 permit requests to conduct seismic
surveys - As part of that process, the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) must also
evaluate permit requests from those companies since
their proposed activities could affect marine mammals.
Block Island (30 MW; $290 million) only offshore wind farm in U.S.Successfully survived winds of 70+ mph (shuts down at 55 mph)
NC could provide all electricity needs if………1. Cover more area2. Closer to shore
http://gwec.net/global-figures/graphs/
- A record 4,331 MW of new offshore wind power installed in nine global markets in 2017
(95% increase from 2016)
- 18,814MW of installed offshore wind capacity in 17 markets around the world
- 84% or 15,780 MW are in European waters with the UK at 36% and Germany at 28.5%
- China is third with ~15%
http://gwec.net/global-figures/global-offshore/
Offshore 22,814 ÷ Onshore 539,193 = 4.1%
March 16, 2017, U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke and Bureau of Ocean
Energy Management (BOEM) Acting Director Walter Cruickshank announced the
completion of the nation’s seventh competitive lease sale for renewable wind
energy in federal waters. A Wind Energy Area of 122,405 acres offshore Kitty
Hawk, North Carolina received the high bid of $9,066,650 from Avangrid
Renewables, LLC, the provisional winner.
3 MW/km2 (1km2 = 250 acres; ~300 acres/turbine)
122,405 acres = 191 mi2 or 495 km2
1,485 MW (Project Capacity listed at 1500 MW)
~ 300 acres/turbine = >400 turbines possible
BUT - Why not closer to shore and more turbines
1. NPS requested that areas within 33.7 nm of Bodie Island Lighthouse be excluded from development2. Kitty Hawk passed a resolution requesting that BOEM exclude areas within 20 nm
Oak Island Visualization: 200 Turbines; monopole design; Afternoon; Seimens 3.5 MW; Total Height 481 ftVestas 7.0 MW; Total Height 656 ft (Views: No Turbine view, 10, 15, 20 nm for each design)
Capacity Additions- Wind: 10.9 GW (46%) mostly in Texas, Iowa, Illinois- Natural Gas: 6.1 GW (34%) mostly in PA, FL, LA- Solar: 4.3 GW (18%) mostly in TX, CA, NC; There is expected 3.9 GW of small scale PV added capacity- Other: 0.5 GW (2%) of other renewables
Capacity Additions are 23.7 GW; Capacity Retirements = 8.3 GW