Draft stuck makingdecisions-learnfromradioactivebanana

Stuck making a decision? Get help from a radioactive banana!

• Relying on data to make your decision for you? That’s for WIMPS.

• Hiding behind your data is a ROOKIE MOVE that gets you NOWHERE. That’s because data is either misinterpreted or WRONG in the first place.

• FINE FINE, you say, that’s all well and good, but these decisions won’t make themselves! What do we do? Do we have to go with our GUT? Is there a MIDDLE GROUND?? TELL US WHAT TO DO!

Chart

Go with your gutExternal verification

• In this talk you will learn how to avoid falling for the trap of supposedly neutral, data driven decision making.

• I will systematically pick apart every decision you have ever made – KIDDING – rather,

• I will show example after example of GOOD decisions and BAD decisions to show exactly WHOSE FAULT IT ALL IS (yours).

• You will find that if you are extremely LAZY and self-aware enough to realize what your MOTIVATION is and your CAPABILITIES are, you hardly need to do any work AT ALL! You can skate by on just enough data to get you off your BUTT.

Did you know bananas are radioactive?

Here is exactly how radioactive they are!Banana = 2 blue squares

All the blue squares fit into just one green square

Living in a concrete building for a year, such as building 50, is three green squares

Did you know there is a small amount of cyanide in apple seeds?

Here is how many you would have to eat in one sitting for it to kill you

Or you could choose this many apricot pits

Why am I sharing these horrible things about the fruit we eat every day? I hate this!!!

• It’s good you are having this reaction• It’s normal to feel defensive about your fruit• The fruit is a METAPHOR okay, of…– The piece of data you have no control over– The piece of data that is off brand– The piece of data you had no intention of acting

on– The info is way outside your motivation and

capabilities. SO DISCARD IT

Radioactive Banana :: Red Herring

• It’s true we’re seeing some outlying data that our customers need our product localized into Esperanto.

• But we won’t do it. It’s a radioactive banana.• It’s true that our customers sometimes talk

with us on the phone for a long time and we would save money if we talked from a script.

• But we won’t do it. It’s a radioactive banana.

Venn Diagram

Motivation

“Am I motivated to change it?

Control

“Is it within my powers to change

it?”

Yes, it’s a great idea to measure it

The Observer Effect

• Data sometimes changes when you measure it!

• PROOF that we are never neutral observers, even when we want to be.

Actual tree falling in actual forest

imnotyetdead.wordpress.com 13

Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle

The more precisely the position of some particle is determined, the less precisely its momentum can be known.

thenerdiestshirts.com 14

Schroedinger’s Cat

Observation itself affects an outcome, as an outcome, as such, does not exist until it is observed

6whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com

The FUTURE of the INTERNET

The Latte Budget

• Completely buried under an abstract category “Entertainment.” Because I am never going to get rid of lattes.

The streaming video budget

• Total data driven analysis

Problem Statement Theories Plan Data

Collection

Watching: Low Watching: High

Browsing: Low Cancel Keep

Browsing: High Cancel Cancel

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We used to enjoy making decisions!

Old Way• 31 Flavors• Choosing is fun!

New Way• 29 Dimensions of Compatibility• We choose for you

groupon.co.in and onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com

This is ultimately why celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain visited Chernobyl

• It was to bring back the FUN in decision making!

• Plus, a zillion greens!

It sure beats eating several town’s worth of bananas

KEEP IT REAL SECTION

• Here is an actual, true-life screenshot of my “Should I quit Microsoft” decision making chart

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Examples of MotivationCompany Question Answer… THIS is what we are

motivated to do.Zappos What values do we want our

employees to demonstrate?“Deliver WOW through service” (Zappos.com)

Apple What do we want customers to feel?

“Delight. Surprise. Love. Connection” (Steve Jobs, 1997)

Microsoft What type of products should we make?

“Create a family of devices and services for individuals and businesses that empower people around the globe at home, at work and on the go, for the activities they value most.” (Ballmer, 2013 shareholder letter)

Google How will we make money? Don’t be evil, updated to “You can make money without doing evil.” (Google.com/about/company/philosophy)

In conclusion