Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov President, PIR Center

Security threats in the Middle East and Northern Africa: the problem of weapons of mass destruction

proliferation

Dr. Vladimir A. OrlovPresident, PIR

Center

MCISMoscow, May 23, 2014

Nuclear Nonproliferation in the Middle East

“After more than 18 months, the WMD investigation and debriefing of the WMD-related detainees has been exhausted. As matters now stand, the WMD investigation has gone as far as feasible” – Charles Duelfer, head of the Iraq Survey Group (an addendum to the CIA’s final report, 2004).

Israeli nuclear program

Iranian nuclear program

Source: International Crisis Group

PIR Center’s recommendations for the comprehensive solution

to the Iranian nuclear issue

Future of the Iranian Nuclear Program

Modify Arak heavy-water reactor to produce less plutonium

Apply Additional protocol to the IAEA safeguards agreement and modified code 3.1

Ratify CTBT

Ratify conventions on nuclear safety, liability for nuclear damage, physical protection

Limitations on the program should be temporally

Cap on the stock of the LEU, limitation on SWU

Clarification of past activities only for technical purposes

Removing sanctions

UN Security Council Resolution on sanctions should be passed prior to agreement

First suspension – then removal

Engaging Iran

IAEA International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles

Replacement of the obsolete core of Tehran research reactor

Unified position of the P5

Nuclear safety and nuclear security exercises in the Middle East with Iranian participation

Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering black list

Accelerate Iranian accession to the World Trade Organization

Regional dynamics

Regional agreement, prohibiting the use of force or the threat of use of force against the

nuclear installations

Go on with establishment of a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free

Zone in the Middle East

Option of the multilateralization of the Iranian nuclear fuel cycle

P5 should provide should provide negative security

assurances to the countries in the Middle

East including Iran

PIR Center’s recommendations for the comprehensive solution

to the Iranian nuclear issue

Chemical weapons destruction in Syria

Most of Syria's "priority" chemical weapons material will be destroyed on board the MV Cape Ray, which has been fitted with twin hydrolysis systems

Source: BBC

Syria is moving its chemical materials to Latakia (2), where they are being loaded on to a Danish ship and taken to Gioia Tauro in Italy (3). There they will be loaded on to the MV Cape Ray and destroyed at sea (4).

The multinational mission overseen by the United Nations Security Council and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) is due to be completed by 30 June 2014.

CTBT in the MENA Region

Source: PIR Center, Ten Steps Toward a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East, 2013

Source: CTBTO

Peaceful uses of nuclear energy in the MENA

Region

Source: PIR Center, Ten Steps Toward a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East, 2013

Ten Steps toward the WMD-Free Zone in the

Middle East1) All participants in the talks to establish a WMD-free zone should make joint statements in which they commit themselves to refrain from attacks (including cyberattacks), or threats of attacks, against each other’s declared nuclear facilities placed under IAEA Safeguards.

2) As part of the negotiations, the participants should draw a Road Map for gradually placing all nuclear infrastructure facilities in the region under the IAEA safeguards.

3) During the talks, all the states in the region should reach an understanding on the need to ratify without any further delay the Additional Protocol to the IAEA Safeguards Agreement.

4) Standing regional mechanism for confidence building measures with regard to nuclear programs, as well as chemical and biological weapons and some types of delivery systems.5) Participation of all the Middle Eastern states in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty should be a precondition for signing a treaty establishing a WMD-free zone in the region.

6) Signing agreements to ban certain types of missiles would help build confidence and establish verification mechanisms in the region.

Ten Steps toward the WMD-Free Zone in the

Middle East

7) Internationalizing/regionalizing the nuclear fuel cycle

8) Institutional nuclear cooperation in the Middle East through the creation of a universal body which would include every country in the region.

9) Reliable mechanisms for early warning in the event of a nuclear accident

Ten Steps toward the WMD-Free Zone in the

Middle East

10) Decision to set up an intergovernmental commission to draft the text of the treaty establishing a WMD-free zone in the Middle East. This should be done with the understanding that during the work on the text of the treaty all countries in the region will join the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC). The treaty should also establish verification mechanisms.

Ten Steps toward the WMD-Free Zone in the

Middle East

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