Improving the world through engineering www.imeche.org Improving the world through engineering 1 One planet, too many people? Dr Tim Fox CEng FIMechE CEnv FRSA Head of Energy and Environment Institution of Mechanical Engineers London, UK
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One planet, too many people?
Dr Tim Fox CEng FIMechE CEnv FRSAHead of Energy and Environment
Institution of Mechanical EngineersLondon, UK
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Our Planet Under Pressure
Institution fully engaged in the public debate:
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Introduction
• Overview
Towards the peak
Changing demographics
Increased demand
Engineering the basics
The Population Challenge
Food, water, urbanization and energy
What needs to change?
Conclusions
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More people
• 21st Century growth
• Regional variation
Increasing by c.75 million/yr up to 2016 then slows
Additional 2.3 billion by 2050
Peak at 9.5 billion in 2075
European, North American, Australasian and Japanese close to stable and/or decline
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Bill
ion
s
World
Asia
Africa
Europe
Latin America
NorthAmerica
Source: United Nations 2009, Adapted from United Nations 2004
Asia currently has half world total but peaks at 5.3bn in 2065
Africa expands most relatively, more than doubling by 2100
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Elderly North - Younger South
Already aged substantially by 2010 and projected to continue
By 2050, 27% 65+ in Europe and 22% 65+ in North America
By 2050, 30% <30 in Europe and 38% <30 in North America
• North
• South
Relatively little ageing before 2010 but projected to turn-up sharply
Asia & Latin America approach North America by 2050 with c.20% 65+ and c.40% <30
Africa remains young throughout
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More urban dwellers
• An urban future 29% urban in 1950
50% urban in 2010
75% urban in 2075
Africa and Asia urbanising most rapidly in 21st
Century
City regions of 1 million or more total 450 (c. 1bn people) 20 have more than 10 million and expect 29 by 2025
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
% u
rban
NorthAmericaEurope
Latin America
Asia
Africa
Source: United Nations 2010
• The rise of the ‘mega-city’
An ‘older’ North and ‘younger’ South
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More consumption
• An appetite for growth
• Changing tastes
GDP in North America has grown 25-fold since 1800’s
Ratio of income per capita North America to Africa was 3 in early 1800’s, now 17
Most rapid growth has been in Asia, expanded 8-fold in 50 years
Most populous region becoming more affluent, fuelling unprecedented consumer demand for goods, food, energy
100
1000
10000
100000
1800 1900 2000 2100
Dol
lars
per
cap
ita
NorthAmerica
Europe
LatinAmerica
Asia
Africa
Source: GGDC 2010
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Increased global demand
• Basic needs
• Energy
Food – double agricultural production by 2050 Water – global consumption up 30% by 2030 Shelter – 75% of people urban by 2050 (3 billion more)
Double of demand by 2050, possibly quadruple by 2100
• Exacerbated by climate change & geopolitical tension
• How to meet this challenge through engineering?
Extreme weather, droughts, floods, sea level rise Estimates that up to 1 billion people displaced by 2050 Finite resources, rare earths etc
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Engineering the basics
• One Planet, Too Many People?
Demographic change in 21st Century will challenge civil society, government and in particular engineers
Acknowledge forecasting demographic change includes uncertainty, that scenarios are possible outcomes; report responds to general trends
Involved over 70 engineers in professional practice around the world
Considers basic human needs; food, water and shelter Additionally examines access to affordable energy which
underpins increased well-being and economic growth Climate change considered as a stress inducer
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Three regions
• 21st Century demographics Fully developed (mature post-industrial economies)
stable/declining populations e.g. EU down 20% by 2100 increasing older population, declining youth
Late-stage developing (current high industrialisation) decelerating growth e.g. Asia up 25% by peak in 2065 increased affluence, ageing population
Newly developing (about to industrialise) accelerating population growth – majority of global increase
e.g. Africa up double by 2050 (some nations triple or more) younger population (53% under 30 by 2050), increasingly
urbanised
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Characteristic countries
• Everyone’s comfort
Increasing interdependence – global population growth and its impact is an issue that has no respect for borders
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“The Population Challenge”• International young engineers technical competition
• The Brief
Ran March to November 2011 Teams composed of 4 – 6 young engineers 23 teams from nine countries registered
Consider changing demographics and projected climate Identify most pressing 21st Century challenge in food,
water, urbanisation or energy for their own country Propose sustainable engineering based solution(s)
• Objective Build on IMechE Report finding and extend evidence base Inspire young engineers to innovate and engage with the
local communities and wider society in which they practice
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Competition outputs - Finalists• Runners-up
• Winners - Anambra State University
Hong Kong – Sustainable water supply USA – Sustainable urban transport infrastructure Nigeria – Sustainable energy supply Trinidad & Tobago – Sustainable energy supply
Nigeria – Sustainable food supply
Oil-dependency, increasing population and ineffective use of arable land
Produce storage and transportation Mechanisation, irrigation, agrochemicals,
biotechnology and enhanced organic Political, financial and social issues
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Food• Improving arable land use and produce handling Water efficiency in agriculture and processing Mechanisation, automation and robotics Post-harvest losses in storage and transportation Land drainage, salinity and alkalinity
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Water
• Improving water capture, storage and management Storm water capture and storage, control of leakage Separate sewage and storm water systems, recycling Groundwater management, aquifer storage & recovery Desalination
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Urbanization
• Building on communities Cities have deeply engrained cultures; engineers need
to work with them, there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ Integrating and planning; food, water, housing, energy,
waste and transportation Slums, informal economy and community cohesion Climate change induced sea-
level rise
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Energy
• Innovate and enable access Demand reduction and efficiency improvements
Energy management technologies
Low-carbon clean technologies and market failures
Local domestic & community level clean technologies
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Empower communities• Finance and Ownership Innovative financing mechanisms and novel models of
personal and community ownership that drive adoption of localised clean technologies and sustainable engineering
Innovative intervention programmes that channel infrastructure financing direct to poor communities who plan and carry-out improvements, thus handing the communities a central role
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Engineering response
• No insurmountable engineering challenges
• Unique opportunity with newly industrialising region
Engineering technology and sustainable practice know-how exists today to meet many of the anticipated challenges
Majority of 21st century population growth while heading off on the road to industrialisation
Apply lessons learnt and ‘leapfrog’ the high GHG emissions resource-hungry phase of early industrialisation
If don’t, developing to same per capita GHG footprint as Asia now by 2050; GHG emissions up x3 to 7Gt/yr Europe now by 2100; up x10 to 27Gt/yr
Climate change and resource depletion more severe for all
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What needs to change?
• No need to delay action waiting for a breakthrough
• Engineers need to take a more human holistic view
Encourage innovation in development, demonstration, deployment of viable clean technologies and sustainable engineering practice as a priority; innovate the costs out
Tackle non-technological barriers of finance, politics, ethics, regulation, ownership; issue often implementation barriers
Address the inherent global imbalance of the challenge Engage engineers in government and decision making
Communication and sharing between disciplines and sectors Understand human dimensions and develop holistic
localised interventions; no ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach
• Engineering Development Goals (5 EDGs)
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Conclusions
• No insurmountable engineering challenges to meeting the food, water, shelter and energy needs of 9.5bn people by late 21st Century.
• Interventions need to be more holistic, multi-disciplined, participatory and local context sensitive.
Finance, politics, regulation, ethics and ownership are often the implementation barriers
• Unique opportunity exists to help newly developing world ‘leapfrog’ the resource-hungry dirty phase of industrialisation; avoid our failures and mistakes.
There is much that the developed world can learn from contemporary sustainable practice in developing nations.
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Thank you
Questions?
www.imeche.org
http://www.imeche.org/knowledge/themes/environment/Population