Dr. Stephen W. Harmon Professor and Chair, Learning Technologies Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology Forecasting.

Dr. Stephen W. HarmonProfessor and Chair, Learning Technologies

Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology

Forecasting the Future of Quality Higher Education

The STEEP Forecasting Framework

Exponential Growth of the Digital Infrastructure

Computing (processing)

Communication

(bandwidth)

Storage Content

Moore’s Law Fiber Law Disk Law Community Law(Metcalf’s Law)

Doubles every18 months

Doubles every9 months

Doubles every12 months

2n(where n=

# of People)

Processing

2014

Photonic Computing

2.4 micr

ons

Bandwidth

Information

Megabyte

Gigabyte

Terabyte

Terabyte

Petabyte

Exabyte

Exabyte

Zettabyte

2011 - 1.8 ZETTABYTES

Dawn of Time to 2003 – 5 Exabytes

Now 5 Exabytes Every Two Days

2015 - 1 ZETTABYTE Every Two Days

Neuroscience

khanacademy.org

Shibata, K., Watanabe, T., Sasaki, Y., & Karats, M. (2011). Perceptual Learning Incepted by Decoded fMRI Neurofeedback Without Stimulus Presentation. Science. Vol. 334, pp. 1413-1415

Ramirez, S., Liu, X., Lin, P.A., Suh, J., Pignatelli, M., Redondo, R., Ryan, T.J., Tonegawa, S. (2013). Creating a False Memory in the Hippocampus. Science. Vol. 341, pp. 387-391.

Method and system for generating sensory data onto the human neural cortex

AbstractA non-invasive system and process for projecting sensory data onto the human neural cortex is provided. …

United States Patent #6,729,337

Sony Corporation

Grau C, Ginhoux R, Riera A, Nguyen TL, Chauvat H, et al. (2014)

Conscious Brain-to-Brain Communication in Humans Using Non-Invasive Technologies.

PLoS ONE 9(8): e105225.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0105225

Now only

$259!!!

Augmented Intelligence

“We are currently preparing students for jobs that don’t yet exist, using technologies that haven’t yet

been invented, in order to solve problems we don’t even know are

problems yet. “

- Ray Kurzweil

How do we respond to this era of incredible change?

William Huskisson11 March 1770 – 15 September 1830

The Iron Bridge

Major Paradigm Shifts in Society*

Agrarian Industrial Information Knowledge

Transportation Horse Train Plane & Car Diverse-Electrons v. Atoms

Family Extended Nuclear Single Parent Global Village

Business Family Bureaucracy Team Distributed Network

Education One Room School House

Current System Current

System

Current System

*Adapted from Reigeluth, 1994

Click to edit the outline text format

Second Outline Level Third Outline

LevelFourth Outline Level Fifth Outline Level

Sixth Outline Level

Seventh Outline Level

Eighth Outline Level

Ninth Outline LevelClick to edit Master text styles Second level

Third level Fourth level

» Fifth level

Routine Expertise

Adaptive Expertise

Hatano & Osuro, 2003

Click to edit the outline text format

Second Outline Level

Third Outline LevelFourth

Outline Level Fifth

Outline Level

Sixth Outline Level

Seventh Outline Level

Eighth Outline Level

Ninth Outline LevelClick to edit Master text styles Second level

Third level Fourth level

» Fifth level

Adaptive vs. Routine Expertise

http://galen-frysinger.com/graphics/chef.jpg

http://www.clipartguide.com/_small/0041-0503-1618-2128.jpg

Schwartz, D. L., Bransford, J. D., & Sears, D. (2005). Efficiency and innovation in transfer. In J. Mestre (Ed.), Transfer of Learning (pp. 1-51). Greenwich, CT: Information Age Publishing. 

Efficiency

Innovation

NovicesFrustratedNovices

RoutineExperts

AdaptiveExperts

Present

Time

Future

Possible

Plausible

Probable

Preferable

Cone of Plausibility

Wildcard

How Can an Institution Prepare for the Future?

A Model for Future-proofing an Institution

Harmon, S.W. & Dennison, T.W. (in press). Futureproofing: Learning, Technology, and the Path to the Unknown. In N. Rushby & D. Surry. Wiley Handbook of Learning Technology, Oxford, U.K. John Wiley & Sons.

Dimensions of Strategic Preparation

Harmon, S.W. & Dennison, T.W. (in press). Futureproofing: Learning, Technology, and the Path to the Unknown. In N. Rushby & D. Surry. Wiley Handbook of Learning Technology, Oxford, U.K. John Wiley & Sons.

Making a Difference

Making A Difference

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0.6

1 1.4

1.8

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3 3.4

3.8

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5 5.4

5.8

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7 7.4

7.8

8.2

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9 9.4

9.8

02

46

810

12 GRADUATION AND pELL rATES OF

uRBAN rESEARCH universities

Pell Rate

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

Georgia State

“Education is our passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs to the

people who prepare for it today.” ― Malcolm X.

[email protected]