Dr Salami 2013 Fgn Budget

8/12/2019 Dr Salami 2013 Fgn Budget

1/73

2013 FGN B

I ME O

A S (PD)


2/73

S 2012

K E 2013

I M O

S M O

L O O

2013 ?

2


3/73

IMF I M F

B BNBS N B S

OPEC O P E C

CBN C B NEF E F

3


4/73

2012

2012

A

O G (%) 7.20 6.58

4

. .

O P B L (S$/) 72 113.7

O O (M) 2.48 2.056

E R (N/S$) 155 157.4

,


5/73

2013

P 2013

30

H R

P

BDGE AI

B (S$/) 79

O () 2.53

E

LA

5

E R(N/S$) 160

GDP G(%) 6.5

A E( N ) 4.987

F D(N) 1.037


6/73

K E FGN 2013

6


7/73

2013

B ($/) 79

O () 2.53

E R(N/S$) 160

G (N ) 10.840

O R(N ) 7.25

N R( N ) 3.298

7

FGN I R 447

A E( N ) 4.987

C E( N ) 1.54

R E( N ) 2.41

S (NB) 387.92

D S 591.76

GDP G(%) 6.5

F D(N) 1.037

Source: 2013 Budget Speech


8/73

,

SECTOR 2012(NBn)

2013(NBn)

Difference(NBn)

% Change

E 397 427 30 7.6

MDG P P 3 8 5 166.7

F I 12 14 2 16.7

E D 21 21 0 0.0

S R 38 47 9 23.7

H D 26 24 2 7.7

H 280 279 1 0.4

A 78 81 3 3.8

P 72 74 2 2.8

54 52 2 3.7

A 48 53 5 10.4

8

Source: Various Budget Speeches


9/73

A NGN11.25, S G 2013 FGN 6.3% 2012

2013 2012

FGN S P NGN 4.987 4.857

S G S P NGN 6.259 5.724

%

2013 ,

. I ,

F, , 9.76%,

E A

E C A (ECA)

9


10/73

F P G 2011,

S$108B FG N A

S$75/ F G S$79

P FG

A S, I S

10


11/73

2013

P 2013

FGN P 2.53

P 1 3 2012

2.1

R S$72.952

K I ? 2.1

S$60.553 %A , $

P A (EIA S 6 2014), S O

P S$90 !!!

F C N!!!!!!!!!!!

11


12/73

2013

B 7.7%

N26 2012 24 2013. 12 16

F G N

H, R

12


13/73

2013

0

50

100

150

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

N'

0

100

200

300

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

N'

E

0

50

100

150

200

250

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

N'

H

13

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

N'

0

10

20

30

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

N'

I


14/73

F F 2012 2015

FICA IE2011 B2011 B

A('B)A('B) 2012 ('B)2012 ('B) 2013 ('B)2013 ('B) 2014 ('B)2014 ('B) 2015 ('B)2015 ('B)

E AAEE, AI & IDICA

A B ( S$) 75 70 70 70 70

A E R (NGN/S$) 150 155 155 155 155 P () 2.3 2.48 2.55 2.575 2.6

G FEDEA CECIBE EEE 9,152.25 9,406.06 10,097.19 10,949.97 11,566.50

O & G R 6,815.45 6,403.40 6,506.34 6,638.33 6,922.10

NO 2,151.27 2,741.15 3,300.31 3,998.48 4,329.15

S L E 93.62 164.67 187.07 209.06 211.33

O NF A I E

91.91 96.83 103.47 104.09 103.92

A F FAAC & A FGN 3,241.36 3,230.14 3,435.32 3,700.25 3,921.38

SAES 1,957.46 1,965.11 2,135.21 2,384.19 2,546.55

LGC 1,482.89 1,487.67 1,613.29 1,795.65 1,916.62

6,681.71 6,682.92 7,183.82 7,880.08 8,384.55

FG BDGE EEE (IF)

F 120 232.79 232.79 232.79 232.79

FGN BDGE S F A (48.5%) 2,882.08 2,867.40 3,034.79 3,241.36 3,428.60

FGN BDGE S A (14%) 103.5 107.90 129.71 167.56 184.14

FGN I R 228.93 393.46 480.81 515.89 528.04

E FGN' B S A

D. 13.61 43.11 30.18 31.56 33.58

3,348.12 3,644.66 3,908.28 4,189.17 4,407.14

14

Source: Various Budget Speeches, Ministry of Finance


15/73

M O

15


16/73

E

E G

16

D

E I

D

B


17/73

2

F I

C L

R

Actors

Government

Budgetprocess-

FormulationBudgetOutcomes-Pro-poor /Consistentwith plan

-

Pro-poor/Consistentwith plan

Pro-poor/

17

Capacity

ConstraintsCommitmentInterestsIncentive

LegislatureState govts.Political partiesOversightagencies PublicCivil society

Informal Institutions-Political bargainingPatronageConstituenciesAllegiancesBusiness interests, etc

I

Scrutiny, oversight& Evaluation

Not

Consistentwith plan

NotConsistent

with plan

Source: Lagos Business School,Edward Kingston Research

A M

O


18/73

2013

C P 2012

. N100 G .

N852 2011, N744 2012, N727 2013.

.

M R

A F G 2013B

18


19/73

.

P 2013 ,

S I 2013

A ( , )

S

F

I MPC

19


20/73


21/73

N

FGN

B E ML FGN

H E

21


22/73

.

P 2013 ,

S I 2013

A ( , )

S

F

I MPC

22


23/73

N S$1, N SF

0.05% S$5.3 SF, 0.03% 175.5

538.1

715.9

R

S

A

N

F

SF( S$3.1 ).

N SF

A, .

23

0.069

1

5

56.7

65

0 200 400 600 800

G

N

A

A

L

$ B

C

Source: World BANK, Edward Kingston Associated


24/73

,

B

( N)

I

R

R GDP G

R(%)

2008 2.9 11.98 5.98

24

. . .

2010 4.07 13.59 7.98

2011 4.971 10.91 7.43

2012 4.749 11.98 6.58

2013 4.987 9.76 6.75


25/73

A , S S (2011)

E L R C

N A 19.0 22.8 22.4

P S 15.5 22.7 21.5

M S 14.5 27.5 24.3

OC/COMM 34.5 27.0 28.7

JSS 16.6 36.9 33.4

25

SSS 'O LEEL' 13.9 22.5 20.1A LEEL 34.1 29.7 31.0

NCE/OND/NRSING 17.2 22.5 20.2

BA/BSC/NHD 16.8 23.8 20.2

ECH/PROF 5.0 27.9 20.6

MASERS 3.2 8.3 5.1DOCORAE 11.1 7.7 9.1

OHERS 31.3 36.1 35.5Source: NBS, Socio Economic Survey Unemployment 2011


26/73

2013 ?

26


27/73

: 2013,

,

S

K M

C "S S

P

F

27


28/73

.2013

A N

2012 .N GDP 2013 NBS

6.75%, 6.58% 2012 Q4

6.99%.

N 7.88% 2012 8.80% 2011.

N 2012 ,

B H.

N

7.55% Q3 2012 8.21% Q4 2012

O 0.91% 2012 0.14% 2011.

28


29/73

, 2013

2012

29


30/73

A

30

Source: CBN


31/73

P O

F P

D

,

GD (%)

() 2011 2012 2013F 2014F

B 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.4

IMF 7.36 7.07 6.74 6.61

2012 A, ,

N GDP 2013

NBS 6.75%,

6.73% (B), 6.74(IMF)

E K

6.9%.

NBS 7.43 6.58 6.75 7.27

31

E represents estimate; F for ForecastIMF International Monetary FundNBS National Bureau of Statistics


32/73

,

I .

I 9% J 12% D 2012 .

E CO P

S 2013 :A L S

R(FMCG)S

O G PIB

MA

I(, P) E C R E

A

32


33/73

2013 :

D NO SR A

C E

P SP P I B (PIB)A N P D ( NGN971 2013 ; 2012 )

A SB A 3.8% N78 2012 N81 2013R .

N ,

.M E ( F)

I IA .

C S P

R

S 2013S 2012 S$24 N 5 E

33


34/73

FGN S

P

J 2013 :

ANIRSAL SD 500

F P 2013 :

S

R S:50%, :10%

R S: 60%, : 20%

M S

.

R

B P R :100%, :10%

34


35/73

FGN S

C A S

.

I A 0 %

I C K D

M B 5% 0%

S M

M

.

I A 0 %

35


36/73

M D G

36


37/73

B 166% N3 2012 N8 2013

37


38/73

?

DG 1: E

H, 1990 2015, . A

: H, 1990 2015, A

38

:

: E , 2015, , ,

A

DG 3:

: E 2005

2015. A

DG 4:

: R , 1990 2015, . A

: G , A , .

DG 2015

, A .

Source: 2010 Millennium Development Goals Report


39/73

DG 5: I

: R , 1990 2015, A

: A, 2015, . A

DG 6: C HI/AID,

:H , 2015, HI/AIDS. G

: H , 2015, , . A

DG 7: E E

: I

.

: H, 2015,

.

DG 8: D

: D . G

: I , ,

G

: G , A , .

DG 2015

, A .

39Source: 2010 Millennium Development Goals Report


40/73

GD ( 1990 $)

50

60

70

80

E , 15+, (%)

25000

30000

35000

1:

40

0

10

20

30

40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

S$

S: N


41/73

A A S

A 3.8% N78

F N IB R S S A

L (NIRSAL) 75% DMB N600M

3.5 2013

E

IN P; C S

E P ( F 2012).

P ( S P SP),

50,000

.

41

3


42/73

20

25

(%)

60

70

80

90

F (%)

3:

0

5

10

15

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

%

42

0

10

20

30

40

50

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

%

S: N


43/73

N3 MDA

5 A, H, C

, R . MO

M A . M A 5

.

M H S M L ;

F (..F)

3

.

M , , 35% FERMA . I

, 3

, .

, N3 MDA

. O

. I ,

.

43

7:


44/73

20

25

30

(% )

80

100

120

:

44

0

5

10

15

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

20

40

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

S: N


45/73

80

100

120

I (% )

..

45

0

20

40

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

%

S: N


46/73

B N397

2012 N427 2013.

7.6%

46


47/73

S M L ,

..F

B,

.

47


48/73

48


49/73

H D I

N 2011 0.459

156 187

.

I

M

S K

A HDI (20062010)

0.429 0.459

7.0

1.1 .

49

0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000

N

B

P

I

E

P

11C


50/73

2020

A (2010

2013)

S D N 25.243 NA

P N880.978 NA

N242 N2.216 O G N571.163 NA

H N461.73 N2.825

E N611.658 . NA

H N487.448 NA

S: 2020

50


51/73

51


52/73

A A F F 20122015

52

2012 2015


53/73

2012 2015

FICA IE2011 B2011 B

A('B)A('B)

20122012

('B)('B)

20132013

('B)('B)

20142014

('B)('B)

20152015

('B)('B)

E AAEE, AI &

IDICA

A B ( S$) 75 70 70 70 70

A E R (NGN/S$) 150 155 155 155 155 P () 2.3 2.48 2.55 2.575 2.6

G FEDEA CECIBE EEE 9,152.25 9,406.06 10,097.19 10,949.97 11,566.50

O & G R 6,815.45 6,403.40 6,506.34 6,638.33 6,922.10

NO 2,151.27 2,741.15 3,300.31 3,998.48 4,329.15

S L E 93.62 164.67 187.07 209.06 211.33

91.91 96.83 103.47 104.09 103.92

A F FAAC & A FGN 3,241.36 3,230.14 3,435.32 3,700.25 3,921.38

SAES 1,957.46 1,965.11 2,135.21 2,384.19 2,546.55

LGC 1,482.89 1,487.67 1,613.29 1,795.65 1,916.62

6,681.71 6,682.92 7,183.82 7,880.08 8,384.55

FG BDGE EEE (IF)

F 120 232.79 232.79 232.79 232.79

FGN BDGE S F A

(48.5%) 2,882.08 2,867.40 3,034.79 3,241.36 3,428.60FGN BDGE S A (14%) 103.5 107.90 129.71 167.56 184.14

FGN I R 228.93 393.46 480.81 515.89 528.04

E FGN' B S A

D. 13.61 43.11 30.18 31.56 33.58

3,348.12 3,644.66 3,908.28 4,189.17 4,407.14

53

2012 2015


54/73

FICA IE2011 B2011 B

A('B)A('B)

20122012

('B)('B)

20132013

('B)('B)

20142014

('B)('B)

20152015

('B)('B)

FEDEA G. F IGEIA BDGE

FG EEE (IF) 3,348.12 3,644.66 3,908.28 4,189.17 4,407.14

417.82 397.93 356.31 365.8 383.79

NJC 95 85 85 85 85

NDDC 56.08 54.69 57.8 61.67 65.3

BE (2% CRF) 64.57 68.24 73.51 79.13 83.49

INEC 52.18 40 40 40 50

... 2012 2015

NASS 150 150 100 100 100

417.82 397.93 356.31 365.8 383.79

D 495.1 559.58 591.76 491.53 462.97

S D D 450.01 511.98 543.38 446.62 423.39

S F D 45.09 47.6 48.39 44.91 39.59

495.1 559.58 591.76 491.53 462.97

MDA S 3,571.82 3,791.59 3,913.11 4,110.56 4,222.13

:

D 2,425.07 2,471.81 2,528.98 2,564.47 2,566.05

P C (MDA) 1,506.11 1,655.12 1,680.22 1,756.48 1,756.48 O 288.05 260.6 260.6 260.6 260.6

CRF P 154.75 169.01 184.48 193.71 195.29

M O 37 50 50 0 0

O S 439.16 337.08 353.68 353.68 353.68

2,425.07 2,471.81 2,528.98 2,564.47 2,566.05

54

2012 2015


55/73

2012 2015

FICA IE2011 B2011 B

A('B)A('B)

20122012

('B)('B)

20132013

('B)('B)

20142014

('B)('B)

20152015

('B)('B)

C 1,146.75 1,319.78 1,384.13 1,546.09 1,656.08

A E 4,484.74 4,749.10 4,861.18 4,967.88 5,068.89

F D 1,136.62 1,104.44 952.9 778.72 661.75

GD 38,427.06 39,904.26 46,714.32 54,788.42 64,377.49

. . . . .

D F 1,136.62 1,104.44 952.9 778.72 661.75

S G P 0 0 0 0 0

P P 16.91 10 0 0 0

FGN' S S

B 42.44 75 50 50 50

S S

F A (ECA) 225 225 150 150 150 N B 852.27 794.44 752.9 578.72 461.75

D B 852.27 794.44 752.9 578.72 461.75

F D/ 0 0 0 0 0

55


56/73

A B 2020

56


57/73

N 2020

N 2020 N 20

2020

2020 ;

ME: A , GDP $900 $4000 .

A: A

,

.

H: A 70

M: A

GDP 40%

I: A

, , , , .

E: M

,

P: P, .

57

2020


58/73

2020

:

P I: P, , O G, ,

H R.

P S: A F S, C,

M, S M E. S M, O G, C

, F E I.

P, S D, F N, D,

C .

D : I

C , P S S I.

G G A

R G D

58


59/73

5 : P, , O G , H R

: A , , ,

, I I P(IPP),

. F G N813.760

16,000M . (R, R, P, I A):

, , ,

.

G I D : P

, C A

A K A I O/O E O

. EL P S (ELPS) .

, PMS . ,

H D: 600,000 H F M H, 240,000

F H A 500 P (PPP) ,

F

M B N. , N250.500 .

59

P


60/73

P

;

N

, 35,000M 2020. , ,

, ,

.

.

I , , 16,000M 2012

, 3,700M D,

2009 8,000M 2010, 16,000M 2013.

, P N880.98.I

: ; ; ;

. .

60


61/73

:

P P P (PPP)

, , I

,

N

,

.

P

N2.216 . . : ; ; ;

.

61

H


62/73

H

:C

P

E

H

S L G

,

.

,

.

E .

H , P

(2010 2013) N461.73 . I ,

N.

62

A F S


63/73

A F S

: S F F N N 3

2015 6 2020. N

2020. 2,000 5,000 2015.

N S E I

.

E E A

E

H , P , N461.73 .

I ,

N.

63

O G


64/73

O G

.

.

O G

2010 2013 N571.163

64

M


65/73

M

2020

.

65


66/73

2020 ,

, , , 12

E C C D E

(ECCDE), .

.

,

, , , .

66

L E P


67/73

L, E P

S :C N

F , (

)

E ,

67

A S D


68/73

A S D

G A S D

I:

R

E

P

D .

I H

68


69/73

S GD , IC

A IC

N

D K P

S IC (, , , ,

/, , )

D IC

,

.

P (R&D)

IC .

D IC

.

69


70/73

S

70

2010


71/73

F &

I

S M

G

A. S

P

DB C 2:

'10

F &

I

M

E

G

A. S

DB C 3:

'10

F &

I

A. S

&C

M

E

DB C 3: '10

71

200 100 0 100 200

C O

&

C

M

G

C

E

R E &

C

S: E K R

200100 0 100

C O

G

C

&

C

S M

R E &C

P

S: E K R

150 50 50

C O

P

G

G C

R E &C

S M

S: E K R

Source: CBN

2011


72/73

S M

A. S

&C

M

E

DB C 1:

'11

F &

I

C O

M

&

C

E

DB C 3:

'11

C O

F &

I

GC

A. S

P

DB C 4: '11

,

72

300 100 100

G

P

R E &

C

G

C

F &I

C O

S: E K R

300 200 100 0 100 200

P

G

R E &

C

S M

GC

A. S

S: E K R

100 0 100 200 300

G

R E &

C

E

M

&C

S M

S: E K R

Source: CBN


73/73

73

Dr Salami 2013 Fgn Budget

Documents