Dr. Rajasree.G, Dr. P. Rajasekharan & Dr. Shalini Pillai. P Kerala State Planning Board, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala.

Dr. Rajasree.G, Dr. P. Rajasekharan & Dr. Shalini Pillai. PKerala State Planning Board, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala

Estimating crop production Determining maturity dates Modifying environment

The surface air temperature influences the nut development, copra and oil yield in coconut.

Pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall accounts for 37 per cent of yield variability in Ist crop of rice.

Some pests severe in coconut during summer, others in rainy season.

High maximum and minimum temperatures and relative humidity favourable during the establishment phase in rice. High maximum temperature is favourable during the ripening period., Huda et al. (1975) .

At Coimbatore and Aduthurai, additional rainfall was found to be detrimental to the rice crop during sowing, tillering and flowering periods, while it was found to be beneficial during elongation ( Sreenivasan and Banerjee, 1978).

Gall midge incidence in rice -positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with maximum temperature (Thomas et al., 1975).

Favourable conditions for the infestation of rice gall midge were found to be Tmax of 35.2oC, Tmin of 19.8oC with a RH of 89.94% and mean rainfall of 4.5 to 62.5 mm (per 5 day period)

In Northern Kerala, blast disease is very severe in winter when the minimum temperature goes below 20oC (Premnathan et al., 1999).

High stem borer infestation was noted in paddy planted from October to November and low infestations in crop planted from June to October. The pest infestation is negatively correlated with rainfall and minimum temperature and positively with maximum temperature

Amount of

Disease

CropSusceptibility, health

PathogenAmount of inoculum

Virulence

EnvironmentLeaf wetnessTemperature

Pathogens dependent on free moisture for infection are likely to be more successful

eg. root pathogens

Leaf wetness sensor& weather monitor

Healthy and diseased bean roots

Higher atmospheric water vapor concentrations favor fungal spore production, accelerating epidemic development

Insects are cold-blooded Development rates rise and fall with

temperature Temperature is the most important factor

influencing:DevelopmentReproduction rateSurvivalDistribution

Cultivars Selection• Choosing windows for Sowing/harvestingoperations• Irrigation scheduling – optimal water use• Mitigation from adverse weather events such as frost, low temperature, heavy rainfall – at critical crop stages• Nutrient Management : Fertilizer application• Plant Protection : Pesticide/fungicide spraying schedules• Feed, Health and Shelter Management forLivestock [Optimal temperature for dairy/ hatchery

Flash Floods

East Fort, Thiruvananthapuram- 30.12. 2011

East Fort, Thiruvananthapuram- 28.12. 2011

Floods Drought

More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s

Frost damage to the different crops (Hisar, 2005-06)

Frost damage is the number one weather hazard, on a planetary scale, as far as agricultural and forest economical losses are concerned

Cold wave

Mustard Ice Jatropha

Papaya

Heat Wave (2003) - Damage to Poultry

Andhra Pradesh ¤20 lakhs birds died in May & June 2003

¤ Highest in E. Godavari-7 Lakhs; W. Godavari – 5 lakhs

¤ Egg production decreased in the state by 25%

¤ Total Loss by 27 Crores

Climate Change effects- Agriculture

Crop Topt TmaxYield (t/ha)

Topt

Yield (t/ha)

280C

Yield (t/ha)

320C

% decrease(28 – 320C)

Rice 25 36 7.55 6.31 2.93 54

Soybean

28 39 3.41 3.41 3.06 10

Dry bean

22 32 2.87 1.39 0 100

Peanut 25 40 3.38 3.22 2.58 20

Sorghum

26 35 12.24 11.75 6.95 41Source : ICRISAT, 2009

Climate Change

Crops and varieties that fit into new cropping systems and seasons

Development of varieties with changed duration

Varieties for high temperature, drought, inland salinity and submergence tolerance

Crops and varieties that tolerate coastal salinity and sea water inundation

Varieties which respond to high CO2

Varieties with high fertilizer and radiation use efficiencyiciency

Crop-Crop Diversity for adapting to increased pest incidence

Effect of intercropping on Coccinellids

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

Standard weeks

Popu

latio

n/pl

ant

SDP sole SDP+S

SDP+G SDP+C

MDP sole MDP+S

MDP+G MDP+C

LDP sole LDP+S

LDP+G LDP+C

Creation of crop diversity by the introduction of another crop is known as crop- crop diversity

The insitu culturing of natural enemies lead to reduction of insect pests in diversified crop conditions.

Sorghum, groundnut and blackgram as intercrops with pigeonpea:

Cluster bean, cowpea and greengram with castor reduced the incidence of the insect pests. These results can go as component of Low External input IPM modules

Intercropping - the best way to Adapt to climate change by small holders

Mitigation

Climate Change- tools for future strategy

The seasonal rainfall influence on cassava production in Kerala

Materials Monthly rain fall data- 1961-2009( IITM)

Cassava production – 1961- 2009( DES, GoK)

SW monsoon influenced the cassava production declining trend in SW monsoon, increasing trend in Post monsoon RF, decrease in RF in June & July, Increase in RF in Aug & Sept

North- East Monsoon & Pre – Monsoon rains had no effect

Crop-weather- pest-disease- management information to the farming communityWeb based services farmer services

Weather Based Crop Insurance aims to mitigate the hardship of the insured farmers against the likelihood of financial loss on account of anticipated crop loss resulting from incidence of adverse conditions of weather parameters like rainfall, temperature, frost, humidity etc.

Weather based Crop Insurance uses weather parameters as ‘proxy’ for crop yields in compensating the cultivators for deemed crop losses.

National Agriculture Insurance Company- Weather based Crop Insurance scheme

Crop-weather calendars

Crop- weather- farm operational calendar

Crop-weather-pest management calendar

Crop-weather-disease management calendars

Lack of sufficient network to draw weather data

Absence of agroclimatic zone wise advisory service

Absence of sufficient location specific research data

Issues in dissemination

Technical problems of forecast

A multi institutional collaborative project jointly undertaken by the Indian Space Research Organisation, CUSAT and State Planning Board linking with KAU and Dep. of Agriculture aimed at augmenting current meteorological network in Kerala so as to provide full fledged crop weather advisory services to farmers

Initiated in 2004 by State Planning

Board

• Strengthening Weather Network in the State

• Dissemination of weather data

• Weather Advisory Services

• Generation of location specific data for research

and development purpose

• Data Support for Weather Insurance

• Development of crop weather information system

ISRO developed AWS for the first time with indigenous technology

Established 56 AWS Set up a portal CUSAT prepared reports KAU generating crop weather

information systems Developed Block level/AEU wise

forecasting models

The concept of agro-ecological delineations was developed by FAO (1976, 1978) with strong emphasis on comparable agro-climatic parameters to delineate agriculturally potential areas suitable for particular crops or combination of crops so that optimum production potential is achieved.

The analysis of agro-ecology of the Kerala State based primarily on climate, geomorphology, land use and soil variability resulted in delineation of five agro-ecological zones and twenty three agro-ecological units..

Farming System ApproachFarming System Approach

Schematic Production Support

Weather Advisory Support

PTD/FLD/OFT (KVK)Extension Support

(Including IT + Field visit)Farmextensionmanager.com)

Water Management(Ponds + ……..)

Livelihood improvement

Marketing at higher levels

Future Agricultural Development in Kerala