Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR November 2, 2011 Arkansas Economic Outlook Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference 2011
Jan 18, 2016
Dr. Michael Pakko
Chief Economist and State Economic ForecasterInstitute for Economic Advancement, UALR
November 2, 2011
Arkansas Economic Outlook
Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference2011
• Arkansas fared relatively well during the recession . . .
Arkansas’ Experience
. . . but the recovery has been faltering.Source: Federal Reseve Bank of Philadelphia
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Inde
x, 2
007Q
4=10
0
Coincident Indexes of Economic Activity
U.S.
Arkansas
• Economic conditions in the U.S. and Arkansas appear to be deteriorating in 2011 …
– Waning consumer confidence
– Political uncertainty
– Gasoline price spike
– Spring storms and flooding, summer drought
Arkansas’ Experience
• Output/GDP
• Personal Income
• Retail Sales
• Real Estate
• Labor Markets
Topics
GDP by State, 2010
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
GDP by MSA
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2008 2009 2010*2010 Rank*
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO 0.8 -2.1 3.9 74
Fort Smith, AR-OK 0.4 -2.2 3.7 82
Hot Springs, AR -1.3 -3.9 1.0 253
Jonesboro, AR 3.9 -0.1 4.5 48
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR -1.3 1.6 0.1 302
Memphis, TN-MS-AR -0.9 -4.0 1.9 192
Pine Bluff, AR -0.4 -3.6 2.6 134
Texarkana, TX-Texarkana, AR -0.8 -2.4 2.2 167*Advance statistics
Percent change
Real GDP by Metropolitan Area, 2007-2010
Personal Income
Personal Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1
Inde
x, 2
008:
Q2=
100
Personal Income(Seasonally Adjusted)
Arkansas
U.S.
Personal Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Transfer Receipts as Percent of Personal Income
U.S.
Arkansas
(Dashed lines include ARRA transfers.)
Personal Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1
Inde
x, 2
008Q
3=10
0
Personal Income less Transfer Receipts(Seasonally Adjusted)
Arkansas
U.S.
Personal Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2009 2010p 2009 2010p
Metropolitan portion of the United States -1.9 2.9 --- ---
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers -0.4 4.0 153 61
Fort Smith -1.5 3.8 260 74
Hot Springs 0.4 2.8 99 189
Jonesboro 0.3 5.1 106 25
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway 1.2 1.4 42 351
Memphis -2.2 3.1 301 147
Pine Bluff 1.2 3.2 43 134
Texarkana 0.7 3.7 74 81
Personal Income In Arkansas Metropolitan Areas
Area
Percent change from preceding
period
Percent change ranking
Taxable Sales
Constructed by the Institute for Economic Advancement using data on sales and use tax collections from the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration.
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Qua
rter
ly, B
illio
ns o
f Dol
lars
Arkansas Taxable Sales(Seasonally Adjusted)
Percent Changes: 2010Q2: +2.6% 2010Q3: +0.7%2010Q4: - 0.6%2011Q1: +0.4%2011Q2: -0.6%
Source: Oil Price Information Service
Taxable Sales
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Dol
lars
per
gal
lon
Arkansas Gasoline Price
Taxable Sales
Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.
Introducing: Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG)
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Qua
rter
ly, B
illio
ns o
f Dol
lars
Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline(Seasonally Adjusted)
Including Gasoline
Not Including Gasoline
Taxable Sales
Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.
Introducing: Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG)
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Qua
rter
ly, B
illio
ns o
f Dol
lars
Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline(Seasonally Adjusted)
Including Gasoline
Not Including Gasoline
Taxable Sales
Source: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Institute for Economic Advancement.
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Inde
x, 20
05=1
00
U.S. Retail Sales and ATSIG(Seasonally Adjusted)
Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline
U.S. Retail Sales
Home Sales
Source: Arkansas Realtors® Association
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
Homes sold in Arkansas by Realtors®(Not Seasonally Adjusted)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Apr. 2010Nov. 2009
Jul. 2010
Home Sales
Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
Homes sold in Arkansas by Realtors®(Seasonally Adjusted)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Nov. 2009
Jul. 2010
Apr. 2010
Home Sales
Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Homes sold in Arkansas by Realtors®(Quarterly Data, Seasonally Adjusted)
Home Prices
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1
Inde
x, 2
006:
Q1=
100
FHFA House Prices(All-Transactions Indexes)
U.S.
Arkansas
Home Prices
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1
Inde
x, 2
006:
Q1=
100
FHFA House Prices(All-Transactions Indexes)
U.S. Little Rock
Arkansas Fayetteville
Home Prices
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
1 quarter 1 year 2 years 5 years
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers -1.3 -5.0 -12.1 -16.7
Fort Smith -0.2 0.4 -3.7 3.8
Hot Springs 6.5 4.3 -3.7 7.6
Jonesboro -2.9 -2.2 -2.0 2.4
Little Rock-N. Little Rock-Conway -0.2 -2.7 -2.7 1.9
Memphis -1.9 -6.1 -10.5 -10.0
Pine Bluff 5.9 -1.0 -2.2 6.0
Texarkana 2.1 4.3 3.2 13.8
Arkansas -0.2 -2.5 -4.8 -1.4
United States -1.9 -4.5 -8.9 -14.6
*Percent changes to 2011:Q2.
FHFA House Price Changes (All-Transactions Indexes)Percent Changes*
Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
Ind
ex
, De
c. 2
00
7=
10
0
Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Arkansas and U.S.
2007 2008 2009 2010
U.S.
Arkansas
2011
(Net of Temporary Census Workers)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Employment
Month Ago Year Ago Feb. 2010 Dec. 2007
Mining & Logging -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6
Construction 1.8 0.9 0.9 -7.2
Manufacturing -1.1 -5.0 -4.0 -32.9
Trade, Transportation & Utilities -1.9 -0.6 1.1 -16.6
Information Services -0.1 0.5 0.2 -2.1
Financial Services 0.6 1.7 1.0 -3.0
Professional & Business Services -0.3 1.3 5.1 2.2
Education & Health Services 0.4 1.8 3.3 11.8
Leisure & Hospitality Services -1.6 3.2 6.0 2.5
Other Services 0.1 2.0 2.2 -0.5
Government 0.7 4.8 5.5 8.3
TOTAL -1.6 10.6 21.6 -36.9
Arkansas Nonfarm Payroll Employment - September 2011*Employment changes (thousands of jobs) from:
* Seasonally adjusted data.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Employment
Month ago
Year ago
Feb 2010
Dec 2007
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers 1.1 -0.3 1.4 -3.8Fort Smith -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -8.3Hot Springs 0.0 7.8 8.1 2.8Jonesboro -1.0 -1.2 0.0 -1.6
Little Rock-N. Little Rock-Conway -0.1 -0.6 0.6 -3.6Memphis -0.3 1.0 -0.8 -8.5Pine Bluff -0.8 -1.9 -1.6 -4.9Texarkana 1.8 2.0 2.5 -0.5
Arkansas -0.1 0.9 1.9 -3.1U.S. 0.1 1.1 1.6 -4.8
Employment Changes in Arkansas Metro Areas,September 2011
Percentage change from:
(Seasonally adjusted data)
Employment
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Institute for Economic Advancement
1,140
1,150
1,160
1,170
1,180
1,190
1,200
1,210
1,220
2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3
Thou
sand
s
Arkansas NFPE - Forecasted Revisions
As Published
Expected Revision
Unemployment Rates
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
Per
cen
t
Unemployment Rates, Arkansas and U.S.
2007 2008 2009 2010
Arkansas
U.S.
2011
Unemployment Rates
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement.
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Unemployment Rates for Arkansas Metro Areas, Jan. 2010 - Sep. 2011
(Seasonally Adjusted*)
Fort Smith
Hot Springs
JonesboroTexarkana
Little Rock
Fayetteville
Pine Bluff
2010 2011
Memphis
Economic Outlook
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."- Niels Bohr , Nobel prize-winning physicist.
Real GDP
2.7%
0.7%
-0.1%
-1.5%
2.3%
3.1% 3.2%2.8%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2012*
Arkansas Real GDP Growth
* Forecasts
Personal Income
Q4/Q4 Growth (%)
2010 4.7
2011 3.6
2012 5.1
2013 3.9
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Qua
rter
ly, B
illio
ns o
f dol
lars
(SAA
R)
Arkansas Personal Income(Seasonally Adjusted)
Actual Forecast
Sales
Q4/Q4 Growth (%)
2010 5.8
2011 4.4
2012 3.2
2013 2.0
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Qua
rter
ly, B
illio
ns o
f dol
lars
(SAA
R)
Arkansas Taxable Sales (Including Gasoline)(Seasonally Adjusted)
Actual Forecast
Home Sales
Sales(Pct. Change)
2009 24.7K -0.4%
2010 23.6K -4.4%
2011 23.4K -0.8%
2012 26.3K +12.6%
2013 27.5K +4.3%
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Qua
rter
ly S
ales
Homes sold in Arkansas by Realtors®
Actual Forecast
Employment
Q4/Q4 Growth
2009 -5.64M -4.1%
2010 +0.70M +0.5%
2011 +1.37M +1.1%
2012 +1.26M +1.0%
2013 +2.24M +1.7%
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Mill
ions
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment(Seasonally Adjusted)
Actual Forecast
Employment
Q4/Q4 Growth
2009 -37.9K -3.2%
2010 +15.1K +1.3%
2011 +4.6K +0.4%
2012 +15.3K +1.3%
2013 +18.1K +1.5%
1,140
1,150
1,160
1,170
1,180
1,190
1,200
1,210
1,220
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Thou
sand
s
Arkansas Payroll Employment(Seasonally Adjusted)
Actual Forecast
Employment
Q4/Q4 Growth
2009 -37.0K -3.1%
2010 +9.1K +0.8%
2011 -1.4K -0.2%
2012 +15.3K +1.3%
2013 +18.1K +1.5%
1,140
1,150
1,160
1,170
1,180
1,190
1,200
1,210
1,220
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Thou
sand
s
Arkansas Payroll Employment(Seasonally Adjusted)
Actual Forecast
Including expectedrevision in 2012
Unemployment
End of Year (Q4)
2010 9.6
2011 9.1
2012 8.8
2013 8.4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Perc
ent
U.S. Unemployment Rate(Seasonally Adjusted)
Actual Forecast
Unemployment
End of Year (Q4)
2010 7.9
2011 8.2
2012 7.9
2013 7.6
4
5
6
7
8
9
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Perc
ent
Arkansas Unemployment Rate(Seasonally Adjusted)
Actual Forecast
Arkansas Economist
For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist: www.arkansaseconomist.com