Dr. László JAGER University of West-Hungary Sopron, Hungary

Dr. László JAGER

University of West-Hungary

Sopron, Hungary

Some links between environment, innovation and forestry

1. Referendum for a nuclear plant

NO

YES

price 312.000.000 euro equal to establishment

of 80.000 ha new forest

2. Referendum for the longest bridge of Central-Europe

NO

YES

Starting point: a simple system

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

start 12.00end 13.00growing speed : double in every minute

How do they feel 5 minutes before the collapse?

A complex system

number of possible positions: 9.49*1053

mass of the Earth: 5,97 *1024 kg

An even more complex system

Forecast:

1 day 5 days 2 week

90% 60% 20%

10 years

?

The risk function

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

time f1 f2 f3 f4 output

1 0.57641 0.754041 0.087397 0.661217 2.930212

2 0.694056 0.971184 0.543355 0.885419 3.338004

3 0.819548 0.478271 0.117397 0.971323 2.44474

4 0.231788 0.193183 0.927876 0.73431 2.714669

5 0.641474 0.309163 0.09659 0.913749 2.141619

6 0.369127 0.878816 0.327152 0.599449 3.243293

7 0.903224 0.135955 0.576825 0.003595 279.7488

8 0.928812 0.275931 0.553416 0.569124 3.515243

=100/(f4*100)+f3+f2+f1

Environmental factors:•Sustainable development •Waste •Noise •Air pollution •Water •Nature and biodiversity •Soil protection •Climate change

changes

•unpredictable

•random

•fast

risk

adaptation

innovation

Some facts of environmental features

http://shpud.com/myths.html

Some facts of environmental features

WORLDWORLD

RESOURCESRESOURCESINSTITUTEINSTITUTE

Data Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (1750 to present)

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

part

s pe

r m

illio

n vo

lum

e

Mauna Loa (1958-present)

Siple Station (1750-)

Some environmental facts

The balance of the world?

Tree and human strategies in a changing world

Adaptation to changing environmental factors

tree level

population level

ecosystem level

Adaptation to changing environmental factors

population level

Adaptation on the level of the ecosystem

different species strategies

oak birch

adaptation for sudden changes?

Adaptation on the level of the ecosystem

human strategies.....

The situation is risky but I can handle it

Up to now the situation is not too bad...

Positive outcomes of global warming?

The previous chapters have shown that global warming would, in all probability, produce gains for most Americans. Somewhat higher temperatures would improve health, cut death rates, facilitate transportation, reduce heating bills, and help satisfy people’s taste for warm weather. The major costs would come from higher sea levels and an increase in smog, which rises when temperatures climb. In most cases, those undesirable side effects could be mitigated at reasonable cost. From an American point of view, spending anything to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases is unwarranted.

Anticipation of the behaviour of

- mankind – global level

- countries

- single human beings

The global scale

Kyoto protocol

Kyoto protocol

Kyoto protocol

Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.

How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions?

8.0

5.8

7.6

6.4

0

2

4

6

8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Billi

on t

ons

of c

arbo

n

Business-as-usual

Kyoto Protocol scenario

  EU ETS - The European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a mandatory compliance programme for large emitters in the 25 European Union Member States, making it the largest corporate emissions trading scheme in the world. CDM - The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) creates credits Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) from emission abatement projects in developing countries.  CERs can be used for compliance in the EU ETS and other national schemes, such as Canada and Japan. JI - Joint Implementation (JI) creates credits - Emission Reduction Units (ERUs) - from projects in developed countries that are signatories to the Kyoto Protocol.  In practise most JI activity happens in the former CIS (USSR). National Schemes - There are local domestic schemes for trading carbon in many countries, including the USA, UK, Canada, New Zealand and Japan.

Carbon trade mechanism

Carbon trade mechanism in practice

wonderful theory + market failure

Carbon trade mechanism – the business model

price of the co2 in everyday life

price of the co2 in everyday life

 Your household CO2 (kg)

Your personal share of CO2 (kg)

UK average household CO2

(kg)

UK average CO2

per person (kg)

Gas, coal and oil 4,486 897 3,876 1,615

Electricity 1,290 258 3,127 1,303

Private Car 4,991 2,600 1,083

Public Transport 57 869 362

Holiday Flights 600 1,562 651

Total Primary Footprint 6,803 12,034 5,013

Food and Drink   585 * 1,404 585

Clothes and Shoes   486 * 1,166 486

Car Manufacture   715 * 1,716 715

Buildings, Furniture and Appliances  

  982 * 2,358 982

Recreation and Services   1,546 * 3,711 1,546

Finance and other services   361 * 865 361

Share of Public Services   1,276 *  3,062 1,276

Total Secondary Footprint   5,950 * 14,282 5,950

TOTAL FOOTPRINT   12,753 26,316 10,963

Global warming and forests

Forest activities

Products

What are you expectations for the future?

1938 2007

greatest risk factors:

external factors

nuclear war

bird flu

global warming

earthquakes

internal factors