Air Vehicles Multidisciplinary Air Vehicles Multidisciplinary Technology Research & Technology Research & Capability Needs: A Top-down Capability Needs: A Top-down Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Research Laboratory Forecast Forecast 6 September 2002 6 September 2002 Dr Jeff Tromp Air Vehicles Directorate AFRL/VA Air Force Research Laboratory
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Dr Jeff Tromp Air Vehicles Directorate AFRL/VA Air Force Research Laboratory
Air Vehicles Multidisciplinary Technology Research & Capability Needs: A Top-down Air Force Research Laboratory Forecast 6 September 2002. Dr Jeff Tromp Air Vehicles Directorate AFRL/VA Air Force Research Laboratory. Workshops. Multidisciplinary Technologies - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Air Vehicles Multidisciplinary Air Vehicles Multidisciplinary Technology Research & Capability Technology Research & Capability
Needs: A Top-down Air Force Needs: A Top-down Air Force Research Laboratory ForecastResearch Laboratory Forecast
6 September 20026 September 2002
Dr Jeff TrompAir Vehicles Directorate
AFRL/VA
Air Force Research Laboratory
WorkshopsWorkshops
• Multidisciplinary Technologies– 9th AIAA MAO Conference, 4-6 Sept, Atlanta GA
• Air Vehicles Controls Technologies– 2002 IEEE Conference on Decision & Control, 10-13 Dec, Las Vegas
•High-Order Physics•CFD & CEM•Nonlinear Aero-Structures and Aeroacoustics
•Transition & turbulence•Numerical Experiments
•Robust Design Methods•Reconfiguration Strategies•Adaptive/Intelligent Control •Tailless Aircraft Control •Man/machine Modeling•Uninhabited Vehicle Control
A Theoretical Basis for Innovative Fully-Integrated Vehicles
MDT Center MDT Center Vision, Payoffs and ApproachVision, Payoffs and Approach
VisionVision
Develop and validate comprehensive analysis, modeling and simulation, and design techniques for
complex engineering systems
PayoffPayoff
Reduce cost and acquisition time of weapon systemsReduce developmental risk thru increased fidelity in design process Enable invention in aerospace vehicle
concepts
Enable revolutionary aerospace vehicle design and innovation
through multidisciplinary technology integration
ApproachApproach
Research Focus TasksResearch Focus TasksMD Center 2002MD Center 2002
Efficient Design & Analysis Tools
Uncertainty Quantification
Physics-based modeling tools and processes for design, analysis, and increased analytical certification of aerospace vehicles (current focus - reduced order methods for aeroelastic analysis)
Rules and tools for understanding variability in system properties and operating environment on air vehicle response (current focus - uncertainties in structural response)
Methodology for system-level design using exergy as common currency (current focus – system-level framework for multidisciplinary design of subsystems with computation of entropy generation rate)
Incr
easi
ng R
isk
Methodologies to support design and invention of adaptive structures for air vehicles (current focus – structural design with integration of mechanization and actuation)
Morphing Aircraft Structures
Energy Based Design
Center of MD Technologies Center of MD Technologies F T W Technical Challenges
High Altitude Long Endurance UAV:• High aspect ratio, low drag aerodynamics• Integrated structural sensor integrity, durability, damage
tolerance increased • 360-degree aperture integration ~~ joined wing
Exergy-Based Framework to Facilitate the Design & System Optimization of Efficient Systems
System Level Exergy MethodsSystem Level Exergy Methods
Define specific energy as total energy per unit weight:
Then at each point in the mission:
customer work, which is a requirement.
overhead work, which should be minimized !
And the system equation is that the Exergy of the fuel burned mustequal the customer + overhead work done through the mission:
H is energy content of the fuel/weight, is overall efficiency, dW/dt < 0.
221 VhE g
Pdt
dEW
dt
dwp
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DVdt
dEW
dt
dwo
dt
dw
dt
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Design Mission Stated in Terms of Work to be DoneHow precise does this need to be ?
Comes From the Exergy of the Fuel Consumed Propulsion System Converts Fuel Into: Mission Work, Including Power to Drive Mission Equipment Mission Overhead - Overcome Vehicle Drag - Power for Other Subsystems - Power to Lift Itself and Required Fuel Waste due to Inefficiencies in Operation & Thermal Performance
Aerospace Vehicle DesignAerospace Vehicle DesignExergy as a System-Level MetricExergy as a System-Level Metric
It has been shown that an explicit calculation of the entropyin the wake yields a different solution for the lift distribution that provides minimum induced drag {depends on assumptions}. A more advanced method for computing the entropy generated in the vehicle flow field is a necessary part of the design process.
Flow Field Computation of Entropy Generation Rate:
• Develop theoretical framework for Exergy Analysis.
• Implement analysis capability into CFD computer program.
increased 4X • Lightweight low-cost airframe • Energy management ~~~ in general• Intelligent vehicles - Ranges from collaborative “swarm” control techniques
to near-sentient individual and teaming capabilities • Hot integrated structures and reusable cryogenic tanks ~~~ cooling heat
exchangers?• Reduced structural mass fraction, aeroelastic control • Control of vehicle structural vibrations and acoustics • Design Integration ~~~ for unconventional vehicles• Unconventional structures
This Task May be Too Long Term
Center ofCenter ofMultidisciplinary TechnologiesMultidisciplinary Technologies
• Develop a theoretical framework to identify energy flow inside of the body (input energy, transferred energy, stored energy and etc.) for efficiency calculation
• Exergy-based framework to facilitate the design & system optimization of efficient systems
Actual shape change
Aerodynamic force
Desired shape change
Actuation force
Body
Total input energy = stored energy + transferred energy
energyInput
energyUsefulloaded
Mission Identification &
Vehicle Configuration
Energy Based Design
Structural Design & Integration
Our ApproachOur Approach
9 5 -2 0
KU B AND ANT AN/AR A-63
KA B AND ANT
EC M LO/HI B AND R EC IEVE FWD ANT ALQ-165
LOW B AND EC M FWD TR ANSM IT ANT ALQ-165 LH&R H SINGLE PLAC E
GPS
WING M ISSLE ILLUM INATOR UNDER SIDE L/RIFF/UHF/VHF C OM M ANT
AR C -210 HAVE QUIC K
X-B AND ANT APH-202
ADF ANT
TAC TS ANT
EC M FWD LO-B AND TR ANSM IT ANT ALQ-165
UHF/TAC AN DATA LINK AR C -210 HAVE QUIC K
M SL ILLUM ANT
WDL AFT
RWR ANT ALR -67
EC M LO B AND TR ANSM IT ANT ALQ-165
EC M HI B AND TR ANSM IT ANT ALQ-165
FLTSATC OM
LOW B AND SEAD HIGH B AND SEAD
RWR ANT ALR -67
EC M FWD HI-B AND ANT ALQ-165
IFF INT WDL FWD
EC M HI-B AND TR ANSM IT ANT LH & R H ALQ-165
RWR LOW B AND ANT ALR -67
TAC AN ANT
UHF/VHF DATA LINK/IFF ANT AR C -216 HAVE QUIC K
R DR ALTM ANT APN-194
# 1( T OP)
# 6, 7( RE AR T OP)
# 3( B OT T O M)
# 2( BOT T O M)
#4, 5( L EF T/ RI GHT)
# 8( T OP WI N G)
C onventional antenna installation schem es com prom ise structural and antenna perform ance
• N on-loadbearing cavity installations require support structure
• A dded cost and w eight• B lade antennas not acceptable for LO vehicles • A ntenna size and installation locations com prom ised
C LA S T echnology B enefits• Single function antennas replaced by large
m ultifunction antennas
• G row th Potential - A void C ostly R etrofits
• 75% R eduction in Structural C ut-O uts
• $0.5 - 3 .3 M C ost Savings Per A ircraft
• 260 - 1000 Lbs. W eight Savings Per A ircraft
• E nhanced A vionic Voice and E W C om m
• Im proved Low O bservable Perform ance
• Supportability and D rag R eduction
C onventional single function antenna suite C L A S m ultifunction antenna suite
C onform al L oadbearing A ntenna Structures (C L A S)
Efficiency of Mechanisms IIIEfficiency of Mechanisms III
• Efficiency with external load (variable force)
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Efficiency IIIEfficiency III
• Stored energy inside of body
• Total energy
• Loaded efficiency
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Output port
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UU
EDBABC
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What is the Right Shape?What is the Right Shape?
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 8000
2
4
6
8
10
ConventionalConformal
75%
q (psf)
25%
50%
P(deg/sec)
Frame 001 ½ 04 Dec 2001 ½Frame 001 ½ 04 Dec 2001 ½
25%
10%
x/c0.25 0.5 0.75 1
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
CP
Articulated Surface
Conformal Surface - 2nd Order
Conformal Surface - 4th OrderConformal Surface - 3rd Order
Frame 001 ½ 17 Feb 2002 ½ Conformal Control SurfacesFrame 001 ½ 17 Feb 2002 ½ Conformal Control Surfaces
Chris L. Pettit, Ph.D., P.E. Chris L. Pettit, Ph.D., P.E.
Terminology *Terminology *
• Uncertainty: A potential deficiency in any phase or activity of the modeling process that results from lack of knowledge
• Error: A recognizable deficiency in any phase or activity of the modeling process that is not due to lack of knowledge
• Sensitivity Analysis: Multiple simulations to determine the effect of varying some input parameter or model assumption
• Uncertainty Analysis: Like sensitivity analysis, but explicitly includes likely range of variability, interaction between sources of uncertainty, and levels of confidence associated with ranges of input variability
* AIAA Guide for Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations
ObjectivesObjectives
• Enable more efficient and robust implementation of innovative concepts and technologies
• Support the Air Force goal of reducing life-cycle costs by increasing reliance on analysis in the design and certification of aircraft structures
Develop and demonstrate methods for validating physics-based models designed to mimic stochastic response variability, especially in nonlinear systems
Formulate guidelines for constructing minimally-complex analytical models that capture variability in system properties
and demonstrate their applicability to the design of robust systems of Air Force relevance
Support development of a UQ-informed certification framework
Develop and demonstrate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to quantify and improve the robustness of computational models in multidisciplinary design
• Risk quantification for performance and certification metrics– Rational basis for making decisions– Cost-effective risk mitigation depends on risk quantification
… we can’t know how far to go if we don’t know where we are
• Fewer test failures and redesigns– More efficient RDT&E program– Certification cost savings
• Robust designs with fewer operational problems– O&S savings– Better models to facilitate future expansion of system
capabilities
• Capability enhancement– Pervasive UQ expected to enhance robust implementation of
innovative design concepts» Sensorcraft» Multifunctional structures Make certification robust and lean
Current UQ EffortsCurrent UQ Efforts
Span of UQ In-House ActivitiesSpan of UQ In-House Activities
Color Meaning Should address if time and resources were available Partially or indirectly addressed Directly addressed
AFOSR Lab Task: AFOSR Lab Task: Quantifying Quantifying Uncertainty in Structural ResponseUncertainty in Structural Response
• Research Objectives– Isolate and quantify specific elements of model and property
uncertainty to define their contribution to errors and variability in response prediction
» Focus on poorly-modeled (e.g. BC’s and joints) or often ignored factors (e.g., damping)
– Demonstrate validation of structural component models through reproduction of response variability
– Develop guidelines for modeling BC and material uncertainties in design-level models
k, c
kw, cw
m(x), c(x), E(x)
p(x,t)
Stochastic FEM
Non-ideal BCs
Random Vibrations
Sub-TasksSub-Tasks
• Experimental and Analytical Study of Uncertainty in Bolted Joints
• Energy dissipation in mechanical joints• Sensitivity to parametric and epistemic uncertainty• Suggest minimum-complexity modeling for design analyses• Validation vs. calibration
• Uncertainty in Strength of Composite Bonded Joints• Define and prioritize sources of uncertainty in joint strength• Develop and validate physics-based models• Provide guidance to experimentalists to ensure future
studies provide sufficient data to support UQ
• Limit-Cycle Oscillations of Uncertain Panels• Role of system variability (e.g., constitutive properties and
boundary conditions) in the long term response of a nonlinear aeroelastic system
Limit-Cycle Oscillation of Uncertain Limit-Cycle Oscillation of Uncertain PanelsPanels
Young’s modulus modeled as a random field
Monte Carlo Simulation
Nonlinear Isotropic Plate
Property variability impacts character and severity of response
Intersection of FTW Challenges Intersection of FTW Challenges and UQ Researchand UQ Research
{FTW Challenges} {FTW Challenges} {UQ} {UQ}
• Organized by FTW-identified vehicle concepts
• Not addressing UQ for identified technical challenges in control or information processing systems unless they influence airframe questions (e.g., aeroservoelasticity)
{FTW Challenges} {FTW Challenges} {UQ} {UQ}
HALE/ISR• Substantial increases in durability and damage
tolerance
• Robust implementation of low drag through loiter
• High temperature engine materials
• Accelerated introduction of new materialsRecce/Strike UAV’s • Proactive/predictive health management
• Low-cost composites manufacturing
• Reliable bonded joints in composite structures
• High-accuracy autonomous warheads
In General …• Lightweight, low-cost everything
{FTW Challenges} {FTW Challenges} {UQ} {UQ}
Space Operations Vehicles• Real-time, integrated health management
• Beam propagation through near-field flow (boundary layer?)
{FTW Challenges} {FTW Challenges} {UQ} {UQ}
What UQ-related issues are missing from the FTW-identified challenges???
• How to design (optimize) integrated health management systems? Must balance weight, system complexity, probability of detecting damage (e.g., number of sensors and their spatial density), cost, survivability of IVHM system, etc.
• Mission- or system-specific risk requirements and risk-based certification
• Manned vs. unmanned? Allocating risk in complex systems? Decision theory?
Strategic Airlifters
• Vehicle design integration
• UQ-based design?
• Survivable high-lift systems
• Unconventional structures
• QRA to compare with conventional design concepts?
• Durable LO Structures
Design Efficient Analysis MethodsDesign Efficient Analysis MethodsPhilip S. Beran, Ph.D.Philip S. Beran, Ph.D.
Principal Research Aerospace EngineerPrincipal Research Aerospace Engineer
Multidiscplinary Technologies CenterMultidiscplinary Technologies Center
Develop and validate new computational Develop and validate new computational methods for the design and analysis of methods for the design and analysis of
revolutionary air vehicle conceptsrevolutionary air vehicle concepts
The Challenges of Design Efficient, The Challenges of Design Efficient, Multidisciplinary AnalysisMultidisciplinary Analysis
Murray didn't feel the first pangs of real panicuntil he pulled the emergency cord.
• Nonlinear physics– Steady and unsteady
• Large dimensionality of discrete, PDE-based models
– Time-domain approach not an advantage
• Large parameter spaces
• Communication between models: complex and iterative
– Frameworks– Interpolation
• Sensitivity computation
• People
ApproachApproach
• Focus on aeroelastic interactions, with longer term goal of aerothermoelastic interactions
– Maintain a general framework while studying interaction physics
• Explore techniques for lowering system order, suitable for integration with current high-fidelity, physics-based methodologies
– Focus on proper orthogonal decomposition but examine other methods
• Study the physical phenomenon of store-induced limit-cycle oscillation (LCO): understand mechanisms and required physics
• Merge reduced order modeling work with limit-cycle analysis (transonic regime)
– Develop fast methodology for evaluating bifurcation structure/location– Cast analysis in form suitable for structural optimization with dynamical
stability constraint
Develop a methodology to determine rapidly the linear and nonlinear (aeroelastic) stability of large, multidisciplinary
systems for application to design
Established LinkagesEstablished Linkages
Design Efficient Analysis Methods
AFOSR (6.1)Computational Nonlinear
Aeroelasticity for MD Analysis and Design of Flexible Air Vehicles
Collaborations with Government
and Academia
• Dr. F. Eastep (NRC/UD) • Drs. K. & U. Ghia (UC)• Dr. J. Scott (OSU) • Dr. T. Strganac (IPA/TA&M)• Dr. W. Silva (NASA LaRC) • Drs. Thornburg & Soni (MSU/UAB)• Drs. Cornelius & Slater, Mr. Anderson (WSU)• Dr. King & Maj Millman (Air Force Institute of Tech.)
Existing
Lab Task
Computational Algorithms for Quantification of Uncertainties in Nonlinear Aerospace Systems
Proposed Lab Task w/Pettit
(UQ)
• Dr. Grandhi (WSU; AFOSR-Funded Collaborative Task)
Order Reduction with Proper Order Reduction with Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD)Orthogonal Decomposition (POD)
Full-Order Analysis Sample System Physics(Snapshots, S)
POD is used to Identify Modes
Project Equationsto Compute
Modal Amplitudes
Expand to EstimateFull-Order Solution
STS
Solve ReducedOrder Problem
Research
General framework for reduced order modeling of large systems of nonlinear, discrete equations: modal integrity (phase 1);
Needed: Physics-based methods for large-amplitude AE oscillations and aerothermoelastic interactions
LCO
Reduced Order Modeling
Efficient ROMs for 2-D AE systems in viscous flow
ROM techniques for UQ of 2-D AE systems
Application of ROM to EBD
Aerothermoelastic analysis of 2-D scramjet configuration (TBD)
Efficient ROMs for 3-D AE systems in viscous flow: SensorCraft
Optimization of structural sizes for 3-D AE system: nonlinear stability constraints
CY05
AerothermoelasticHeated panel: PT w/ROM
Design
Reflection on Integrating Reflection on Integrating Concept Technical ChallengesConcept Technical Challenges
• HALE UAVs: High-aspect-ratio, low-drag aerodynamics– Fluid/Structure interaction physics for high AR and joined-wing configurations
» Moderate structural deflections and potentially separated flows» Minimized weight to enhance endurance» Robustness?
– Go beyond static problem and examine the dynamic problem– Design integration?
• Battlefield Sensors: Intelligent vehicles– Potentially large structural deformations and shape changes– Potentially nonlinear, separated, low-Re flows– How to build nonlinear ASE models?– Design integration?
• Space Operations Vehicles: Damage tolerant structures– Physics of aerothermoelastic interactions
• Long-Range Strike: Reduced structural mass fraction– Structural optimization accounting for shock/viscous effects (Mach 5?)
Workshop SummaryWorkshop Summary
Center of MD TechnologiesCenter of MD TechnologiesWorkshop SummaryWorkshop Summary
• Brief Discussion of Technical Challenges -- high level Air Force needs -- interpreted for MD issues
• Summary of Current Research Tasks -- not put together for the challenges -- work in progress
• What is Next?
Center of MD TechnologiesCenter of MD TechnologiesWorkshop SummaryWorkshop Summary
QUESTIONS:
What is the Science in Design Integration ??
How should quantitative risk analysis be employed in design and certification?
How to Include EVERYTHING in System-Level Optimization ? -- Connections between all disciplines
How can the MD community contribute to the development of current Air Force goals ???
Backup SlidesBackup Slides
Why Do UQ for Aircraft Why Do UQ for Aircraft Structures?Structures?
• Air Vehicles Directorate of AFRL needs to understand the proper role for UQ in airframe design and certification– Philosophy: Certification should be a process of managing risk from conception
to retirement– Risk management is difficult or haphazard when the risks are not adequately
identified and quantified» Safety factors account for uncertainties indiscriminately» We need to scrutinize all stages of conceptual, preliminary, and detailed
design» Need a closer relationship between testing and model validation
• Validation should include mean behavior and its variability as much as possible. Otherwise, it’s just calibration or tuning.
• Traditional methods and historical databases can be inadequate for unique structural concepts, extreme environments, and new materials– Many new structural technologies and concepts being developed, but little or
no usage experience– How can we rationally assess the risk and return-on-investment for new
technologies?
Why Do UQ for Aircraft Why Do UQ for Aircraft Structures? (cont.)Structures? (cont.)
• Lag between development and confident use of new materials, connection methods (e.g., bonded joints), and inspection methods is an expensive bottleneck
• Lack of predictive capability in design leads to test failures, missed performance goals, and expensive certification processes– Inadequate and poorly validated analytical models of aircraft structures
and their operating environments– No rigorous means to evaluate confidence in computational predictions– Safety factors hide the sources of uncertainty and error
• As in many other engineering fields, UQ for airframes appears to be the best bet for tackling these tough issues
Lack of predictive capability in design leads to test failures, missed performance goals, and expensive certification processes
Goal
Promote better decisions through increased confidence in model-based predictions by providing methods to quantify variability and validate physics-based models of aerospace structures
Long-Term Impact• Certification cost savings• Robust designs with fewer operational problems• Risk quantification for certification metrics
Material Properties- manufacturing variability- statistical uncertainty
Physics Model- linear vs. nonlinear- constitutive relations
Current Issues in Uncertainty Current Issues in Uncertainty Quantification for AirframesQuantification for Airframes
Technical Challenges and NeedsTechnical Challenges and Needs
• Deterministic models are not “done” yet, especially for multidisciplinary and nonlinear systems– Physics of extreme environments and multi-scale phenomena
» e.g., epistemic uncertainties in corrosion, damage, and aerothermoacoustic loads
– Execution of high fidelity models is often still prohibitively slow for UQ– Models take a long time to develop and debug
» Nonlinear, multidisciplinary simulations are immature and not robust• UQ applications can amplify these shortcomings, but might also
reveal hidden problems– Modeling of often ignored or idealized features is perhaps a relatively
bigger problem now than in the past» Many of the “algorithm” and “discretization” difficulties have been
resolved» UQ demands better understanding of model shortcomings
• e.g., effects of joints in energy dissipation of built-up structures» Need to understand inputs better!
• e.g., damping, BC’s and IC’s, uncertain environments (e.g., corrosion)
UQ requires good physics models and robust algorithms
Technical Challenges and Technical Challenges and Needs (cont.)Needs (cont.)
• Model Validation and Model Uncertainty– Separation of measurement uncertainty from property variability between
samples– How many measurements and tests are “enough”?
» Better use of modeling to plan test and measurement regimen• Unique issues for aircraft structures due to intermediate size of
production runs– Sounds like a good applications for Bayesian updating!
» Information frameworks for integrating analyses and test data• How do we extract and combine the information we really need?
» Coping with limited data of poor resolution• Getting sufficient information for minimal investment
» Ultimate question: How much confidence do we require in our predictions? How much risk is acceptable? This is not just a technical problem.
– Developing modeling guidelines based on UQ needs in addition to deterministic considerations» Should promote early recognition, characterization, and prioritization
of UQ sources– SAB recommended more formal UQ integration with current activities!
Technical Challenges and Technical Challenges and Needs (cont.)Needs (cont.)
• Life Prediction– Loads, nonlinear response, fatigue, corrosion
» SAB recommended more VA work in structural reliability analysis for life prediction!
– Models and health monitoring data for remaining life of existing structures» Direct impact on sustainment research in VA» What level of data and integrated health monitoring is required if
validated analytical models are available?• How to optimize design of health monitoring system to robustly
detect changes in the system’s health?» Load-path dependence for time-dependent reliability assessment
– “Robust” usage projections (mission analyses)» Operational needs often change during design’s lifetime. Can we use
UQ to estimate the required room for growth? A role for non-probabilistic methods?
• UQ for CFD– Model validation– Better understanding of turbulence-induced loads
UQ Transition Challenges and UQ Transition Challenges and NeedsNeeds
• How should risk-informed certification of airframes be done?
• If rigorous UQ is to supersede safety factors, it must produce meaningful and intuitive information
– Technical and managerial uses of information– “Acceptable risk” as a basis for design requirements
» Who should establish them? What are the consequences of being wrong?
• Educating and convincing management, industry, certification officials, and other engineers to accept an “uncertain” approach
– Most aerospace engineers lack formal risk analysis training!– The current design and certification philosophy:
» Enforces safety indiscriminately» Hides the sources of uncertainty» Can provide a false sense of security
• Only get qualitative indications of system’s robustness• Tests cannot cover many operational conditions. We need validated
analytical models to demonstrate safety in non-test conditions!
UQ Transition Challenges and UQ Transition Challenges and Needs (cont.)Needs (cont.)
• How to quantify the benefits of avoiding problems through better analysis?– We only know how much a problem costs after it occurs– If good analysis prevents a problem from ever occurring, how
much is saved? What is the ROI? Where are the benefits? Are they monetary?
• Can we use non-probabilistic UQ methods to quantify variability in schedule and cost models?– Future designs are expected to differ significantly from
traditional designs» More unique technology and greater system complexity» Cost and schedule risk will be higher. Can we anticipate
them better?
A role for non-
probabilistic methods?
UQ Transition Challenges and UQ Transition Challenges and Needs (cont.)Needs (cont.)
• Cost-Benefit and Trade-Off Studies– Can the required structural safety levels for UAV’s be relaxed
from those imposed on manned aircraft?– What is the risk in trading structural weight for improved
capacity or performance?
• Compliance with Acquisition Regulations– DoD system acquisition directives are full of phrases like “… risk
must be managed …” and “ … risks should be acceptable …”– At best, risk is assessed qualitatively in current practice– Qualitative risk assessment is risky …
» Experts are notorious for their tendency to underestimate uncertainty!
– How can we make the risk management process more objective?