Dr. Don Easterbrook’s view on climate cycles Presented by: Melissah Ball.

We are cooling?

Dr. Don Easterbrook’s view on climate cycles

Presented by: Melissah Ball

BooksEasterbrook, D. J., 1999 Surface processes and landforms: Prentice Hall Publishing Co., 546 p.

Easterbrook, D. J., 1999, Interpretation of landforms from topographic maps and air photos: Prentice Hall Publishing Co., 193 p.

Easterbrook, D. J., 1993, Surface processes and landforms: Macmillan Publishing Co., 520 p.

Easterbrook, D. J., 1993, Interpretation of landforms from topographic maps and air photos: Western Washington University Press, 185 p.

Easterbrook, D. J., 1982, Potential geologic natural landmarks, Cascade Range, Washington: Heritage Conservation and Recreation Service, Dept. of Interior, Wash. D. C., 277 p.

Easterbrook, D. J., 1971, Geology and geomorphology of western Whatcom County, Washington: Western Washington State College Press, 68 p.

Easterbrook, D. J., and Rahm, D. A., 1970, Landforms of Washington: Union Printing Co., 156 p.

Easterbrook, D. J., 1969, Principles of Geomorphology: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 462 p.

"Legitimate scientists do not doctor data, delete data they don't like, hide data they don't want seen, hijack the peer review process, personally attack other scientists whose views differ from theirs, send fraudulent data to the IPCC that is used to perpetuate the greatest hoax in the history of science, provide false data to further legislation on climate change that will result in huge profits for corrupt lobbyists and politicians, and tell outright lies about scientific data.“

-Dr. Don Easterbrook

How do we know if we’re warming or cooling?

“One of the best ways to predict what climate changes lie ahead is to look for patterns of past climate changes.”

The graph shows temperature variations determined from oxygen isotope analyses from the Greenland GISP ice core

The Younger Dryas Cold Period

The 8200 Year Cooling

The Medieval Warm Period

Today’s Temperatures

Causes of climate change

Solar Variations: The Maunder Minimum

Global cooling occurs during times of few sunspots and low solar irradiance

Solar irradiance and global warming and cooling from 1750 to 1990.

As we approach the predicted solar minima, the sun is behaving in a manner not seen since the Little Ice Age Dalton Minimum (1790 to ~1825). The change from sun spot cycle 23 to cycle 24 was expected in 2007 and the number of days with no sun spots has exceeded all but one record back to the Dalton Minimum. Cycle 23 now resembles cycle 4, which preceded the Dalton Minimum. The transition from cycle 23 to cycle 24 now appears to be headed lower than the Dalton Minimum

Sun spot cycles during the Dalton Minimum (1790-~1825).

Association of solar variations and climatic cooling

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)Oceanic Processes:

Glacier advances and retreats are driven by climate changes, which are driven by changes in PDO

“Great Pacific Climate Shift”

There is a direct correlation between PDO mode and global temperature

*It is important to point out that the PDO itself is not an index of temperature; it is an index of radiative forcing which drives the time rate of change of temperature.

Satellite image of ocean temperature, 1997, showing strong warm PDO in the eastern Pacific. The deep red band at the equator is a strong El Nino that made 1997-98 particularly warm. (NASA image)

Satellite image of ocean temperature, 1999, showing the development of a strong cool PDO in the eastern Pacific that marked the end of ‘global warming’ and the beginning of the present cool cycle. (NASA image)

‘Global warming’ is over. No warming above the level temperatures in 1998 has occurred and global cooling has deepened since 2005

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)

The Atlantic Ocean also has multidecadal warm and cool modes with periods of about 30 years, much like the PDO. During warm phases, the Atlantic is warm in the tropical North Atlantic and far North Atlantic and relatively cool in the central area. During cool phases, the tropical area and far North Atlantic are cool and the central ocean is warm. The AMO is the average anomaly from 0 to 70N.

Predictions

1. The PDO has a regular cyclic pattern with alternating warm and cool modes every 25-30 years.

2. The PDO has accurately matched each global climate change over the past century and may be used as a predictive tool

3. Since the switch of the PDO from warm to cool in 1999, global temperatures have not exceeded the 1998 high.

4. Each time the PDO has changed from one mode to another, it has stayed in the mode for 25-30 years.

5. Since the switch of the PDO from warm to cool in 1999, it will undoubtedly stay in cool mode for another 15-20 years.

Dr. Easterbrook’s Predictions

Impacts of Global Cooling

A recent study showed that twice as many people are killed by extreme cold than by extreme heat.

Decreased food production

Increase in demand for energy

Inability to cope with increase in world population

Dr. Easterbrook’s Conclusions:

Numerous, abrupt, short-lived warming and cooling episodes, much more intense than recent warming/cooling, occurred during the last Ice Age.

Climate changes in the geologic record show a regular pattern of alternate warming and cooling with a 25-30 year period for the past 500 years.

Strong correlation between solar changes, the PDO, glacier advance and retreat, and global climate allow us to project a consistent pattern into the future.

Projected cooling for the next several decades is based on past PDO patterns for the past century and temperature patterns for the past 500 years.

Three possible scenarios:

1. Global cooling similar to the global cooling of 1945 to 19772. Global cooling similar to the cool period from 1880 to 19153. Global cooling similar to the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1820

Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more damaging than global warming would have been.

Sources

http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/research/global/looming-threat-of-global-cooling.pdf

http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/research/global/glocool.htm

http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/research/global/index.htm

Easterbrook ,Dr. Don. Global Climate Change Resource. WWU Home Page. Updated 6/26/10

Easterbrook , Dr. Don. Global Climate Change Resource. Global Warming Global Cooling. 2006

Easterbrook, Dr. Don. Global Climate Change Resource. Recent Global Cooling. 2006

http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/research/global/index.htm

Jefferson, Anne, Chris Rowan. Out of the Ice Age, into the Asteroid Shower. 2009

http://www.theresilientearth.com/?q=content/little-ice-age-ii-sequel

Hoffman, Doug L.. The Resilient Earth. Little Ice Age II, The Sequel? 2010

Hoyt, Douglas V., and Kenneth H. Schatten. The Role of the Sun in Climate Change. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Lassen, K., and Friis-Christensen, E. "Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate." Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics 57, no. 8 (1995): 835.

Schaefer, Bradley. "Sunspots That Changed the World." Sky & Telescope 43, no. 4 (1997): 34.

http://www.climatedepot.com/a/4140/Geologist-appalled-at-NYTs-Krugman-Legitimate-scientists-do-not-doctor-datahijack-peer-reviewsend-fraudulent-data-to-IPCC-that-is-used-to-perpetuate-the-greatest-hoax-in-history-science

Morano, Mark. Climate Depot. Geologist 'appalled' at NYT's Krugman. Sunday, November 29, 2009